Risk Aversion and Capital Allocation Risk Tolerance Asset Allocation Capital Allocation Line Risk Premium and Risk Aversion E[r] - rf Risk Premium: It is compensation for risk s (Std. Dev.) Risk Measure*: Risk Aversion coeff: A A E[ r ] r f 1 2 s 2 * just one of them Investments 8 2 Risk Premium and Risk Aversion Example Market portfolio E[r] = 12% Market portfolio s = 20% Risk-free rate (T-bill) = 4% Risk premium: E[r] - rf = 8% Risk aversion coefficient: A = 0.08/(0.5*0.20^2) = 4 Investments 8 3 Speculation vs. Gambling Speculation (i.e. Investing) Taking risk for extra reward Risk premium: E[r] - rf > 0 Higher investors’ risk aversion requires higher expected returns Odds are in your favor Gambling Risk is the reward Risk premium: E[r] - rf < 0 Investments 8 Odds are against you 4 Asset Allocation How to allocate your fund among the following asset classes? Investment Funds Stock Risky Assets Investments 8 Bond T-Bills Risk-Free Asset 5 Asset Allocation Risky and Risk-Free Assets Percentage to invest in risky asset Percentage in risk-free asset Risky asset: a stock or a stock portfolio Risk-free asset: 30-day T-bill as proxy Issues Investments 8 Examine risk/return tradeoff Demonstrate how different degrees of risk aversion will affect allocations between risky and risk-free assets 6 Asset Allocation Moments of asset returns Assets Risky Risk - Free Mean Std Dev Weight E[rp ] 15% s p 22% r f 7% s f 0% w 1 w Moments of portfolio C return Mean : E[rc ] (1 w)rf wE[rp ] 0.07 0.08w Std Dev : s c ws p 0.22w Example: w = 0.75 Mean : E[rc ] 0.07 0.08w 0.13 13% Std Dev : s c 0.22w 0.16 16.5% Investments 8 7 Capital Allocation Line How much in risky asset … 18.0% Capital Allocation Line 16.0% 14.0% E[rp ] 15% Risky Portfolio E[r_c] 12.0% w = 0.75 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% r f 7% Risk-Free Asset 2.0% s p 22% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% SD[r_c] Investments 8 8 Capital Allocation Line w > 1, what does that mean? Find the E[rc] and SD[rc] with w = 1.2 Mean : E[rc ] 0.07 0.08w 0.166 16.6% Std Dev : s c 0.22w 0.264 26.4% Leverage Investments 8 Investing 120% of wealth in risky asset Using margin borrowing Higher expected return than the risky asset Higher volatility to go with the higher return 9 Capital Allocation Line with Borrowing Capital Allocation Line: Borrowing at 10% Part 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% w = 1.2 E[rp ] 15% Risky Portfolio 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% r f 7% Risk-Free Asset 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Investments 8 s p 22% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 10 Capital Allocation Line Sharpe (reward-to-variability) Ratio 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% E[rp ] 15% E[r_c] 12.0% E[rp ] rf 15% 7% 8% 10.0% 8.0% Sharpe Ratio : E[rp ] rf 8% S 0.36 sp 22% r f 7% 6.0% s p 22% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% s p 22% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% SD[r_c] Investments 8 11 Capital Allocation Line Risk Tolerance and Allocation Greater risk aversion leads to higher allocation to risk-free asset Lower risk aversion leads to greater allocation to risky asset Willingness to accept extremely higher risk for higher return may lead to leveraged position Investments 8 12 How to find your portfolio allocation? Example 1 You desire 12% return for your portfolio: 12% = (1-w)*7%+w*15% or w = 62.5% Std. Dev. = 62.5%*22% = 13.75% Example 2 You desire risk no more than 10% for your portfolio: w*Std. Dev. = 10% or w = 45.45% Return = (1-45.45%)*7%+45.45*15% = 10.64% Investments 8 13 Wrap-up How does risk aversion affect expected returns? Is investment a form of gambling??? What is the Capital Allocation Line? How risk tolerance affects asset allocation? Investments 8 14