Current/Future Directions for
Air Force Space Weather
Dr. Joel B. Mozer
Battlespace Environment Division
Space Vehicles Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory
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AFRL Mission
Leading the discovery, development, and integration
of affordable technologies for our
air, space and cyberspace force.
It’s not just about the science…
…it’s about leadership in S&T
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Space Weather Research at AFRL
• Why is the Air Force interested in Space Weather?
• What is the current state of Space Weather within the AF?
• What does the future look like?
Leading the nation for forecasting the Space Environment
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Space Services
Communications
Space assets are
pervasive in
civilian and
defense services
Precision Strike
ISR
Navigation
Weather
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Why is the AF interested in SWx?
• Satellite Operations
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Rapid anomaly assessment – was it a bug, the environment, or the enemy?
Protection and mitigation important
• Satellite Design
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How much shielding?
How long of a lifetime?
• Space Situational Awareness
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Enabling good decisions based on good knowledge of battlespace
• The Ionosphere
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Impacts many RF-based systems communicating through, or across it
GPS, Satellite Communication, HF Communication, etc.
Space Weather Impacts Nearly Every AF Mission!
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Hazards of Space Environment
Satellite Systems
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Vacuum welding
UV damage
Sputtering
Corrosiveness of atomic oxygen
Plasma-induced charging
Micrometeoroids
Fluctuating magnetic fields
Energetic charged particles / radiation
Neutral atmosphere drag
Solar radio noise
Debris / collisions
Ionosphere (ground communications)
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Satellite Communications
Development of SATCOM systems
• Broad trade space (bandwidth, coverage, cost,
survivability, security)
• Ionospheric scintillation very important
• UHF/VHF most affected
• Equatorial regions most affected
Impact
High
Med
Low
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What is the current state of SWx?
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Environmental monitoring
– Space-based: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
– Ground-based: Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON)
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Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) – 4 telescopes worldwide
Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) – 4 observatories,
– Civilian (non AF) assets: ACE, LASCO, etc.
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Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
– Ingests data
– Runs assimilative and forecast models (relatively primitive)
– Produces forecasts & system impact products
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Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)
– Assesses environment
– Tasks satellites
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Satellite Design Centers
– Use standard empirical models of radiation environments
– Often
engineer
around Space
Weather
effects (at highWeather
cost)
Space
Weather
Lags
Tropospheric
by 30 years!
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Space Weather Forecasting
10-year Vision
Space Wx Forecasting
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Currently in the era of specification
– Climatology for satellite design
– Post-anomaly resolution
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Tropospheric Wx Forecasting
Predictive decision aids increasingly
required
– More dependence on space
– More sensitivity to
environmental effects
24-hr fcst of 500mb winds/clouds over SW Asia
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Lots of data!
Robust operational numerical weather prediction
Impacts well known
Culture of considering weather effects (e.g., ATOs)
Infrastructure to support rapid data dissemination
Vision: Dynamic data-driven models to provide products with real
military utility delivered to warfighter
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Space Weather
AFSPC Vision
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Sun-to-Mud Coupling
State of the Science
Solar Interior
MHD dynamics
Emerging
magnetic flux
Backside imaging
(helioseismology)
Photosphere &
Chromosphere
Mag. Field
Solar Energetic
Particles (SEPs)
Flares / Coronal
Mass Ejections (CME)
Coronal holes / solar
wind
Radio Bursts
X-ray/EUV
emissions
Heliosphere
Interplanetary
Magnetic Field
(IMF)
Solar Wind
Shocks/SEPs
CMEs
Legend
6.1 – TRL 1-2
6.2 – TRL 3-4
Magnetosphere
IMF
Magnetic
storms/substorms
Auroral
zones/ring
currents
Polar Cap
Potential
Radiation Belts
South Atlantic
Anomaly (SAA)
6.3 – TRL 5-6
Driven/Compliant
System
Thermosphere &
Ionosphere
Plasma bubbles /
equatorial anomalies
Scintillation / density
fluctuation
Neutral winds
Travelling iono.
disturbances
UV Heating
Ion chemistry
Bulk ionosphere
Persistent System
Covering all the pieces of a very complex system!
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Examples of AFRL Space Weather Technology
Projects
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Solar Disturbance Prediction
And Impacts On DoD Systems
Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide
reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary
disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations
Technology Challenges
• Large-aperture telescope design and
construction
• Remote sensing of solar & coronal vector
magnetic fields and electric currents
• Energy storage and release mechanisms in
large magnetic plasmas
• Characterization of coronal mass ejections
(size, density, magnetic configuration, etc.)
Advanced Tech. Solar Telescope
(ATST)
Improved Solar Optical Observing
Network (ISOON)
Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is
required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.
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Space Sensing Technology
Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)
SMEI Achievements/Milestones
• Launched January 2003
• First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob
Comet Tail Disconnects
Result of Interplanetary
CME passage
• Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction
• Very high altitude aurora observations
• Gamma ray burst comparison study
Comet LINEAR
(C/2002 T7)
• Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison
• Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs
• Eclipsing binary stellar studies
• ICME observations at Mars
• Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model
comparison
• Comet tail “disruption event” discovery
• Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs
ICME
• Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics
SMEI phenomenally successful first Heliospheric Imager
Over 100 publications to date!
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The Tappin-Howard CME Propagation Model
CME/ICME: 30 November-05 December, 2004
Projected arrival time at
ACE:
LASCO projection: 13:30 UT
on 4 December.
ACE Shock
Projected
LASCO
TH Model projection: 07:15
UT on 5 December.
Actual arrival time at ACE:
SMEI Model
06:56 UT on 5 December.
LASCO Data
So the Tappin-Howard
Model predicted an
arrival time that was
just 19 minutes later
than the actual time!
Ionospheric Impacts
On DoD Systems
Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast
& mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems
Systems Impacted by Scintillation
Irregularities
In ionosphere
SatCom/GPS
Satellite
Scintillation,
Comm dropouts,
GPS loss of lock
Receiver
AF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillation
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Communication/Navigation Outage
Forecast System (C/NOFS)
Milestones accomplished
• Launched (April 16, 2008)
Work in progress
• Understanding the data
• Improved Models
• Operational Demonstration
C/NOFS Components
• Satellite
• Ground Stations
•SCINDA
•Beacons
• Models and Products
C/NOFS Instruments
SCINDA Sites Thru 2008
• C/NOFS Occultation (GPS) Receiver for Ionospheric
Sensing and Specification (CORISS)
• Vector Electric Field Instrument (and mag) (VEFI)
• Coherent EM Radio Tomography (CERTO)
• Neutral Wind Meter (NWM)
• Ion Velocity Meter (IVM)
• Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP)
is on track
April 2008 Launch
C/NOFSC/NOFS
is pathfinder
for for
operational
iono. mission
C/NOFS System Components
Data-Driven
Modeling
Ionospheric Monitors
TEC
DISS
S4
Satellite & Ground Stations
Data Center
Data Assimilation
Physics-Based
Forecasts
Specification Products
GPS Error
COMM Outage
C/NOFS Data and Product Types
Global/Regional Maps
Static, flat displays
SATCOM
Point-to-Point Data
Dynamic, interactive displays
SATCOM
RADAR
GPS
4D Data Grids
4D Data Grids
4D Data Grids
Space Particle Hazards
Specification and Forecasting
Objectives:
•Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space
particle/radiation environments (local & globally)
•Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts
•Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems
•Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment
Technology Challenges
• Miniaturized Sensors
• Limited Data Sets – Measurements made
in 1960s & 1970s
• Lack of understanding of non-linear
dynamic radiation-belt processes
• Non-Standardized electrical & telemetry
interfaces
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Space Weather SSA
LEO Radiation Environment Models
Important for satellite acquisition…
HEO
• New AP-9/AE-9 standard radiation belt model being
developed
TSX5
LEO
Aurora
• Provides significant improvement in coverage and
statistics over current AP-8/AE-8 standard
• Sorely needed by satellite engineers to control risk,
maximize capability and reduce cost in designing for
South Atlantic Anomaly
new orbit regimes
(horn of inner belt)
Outer belt horn
… and for space situational awareness
• AFRL using CEASE/TSX-5 database to develop models
of LEO radiation hazards
DSX
RBSP
Inner Belt
Outer Belt
GEO
Slot
> 1.2 MeV electron maps at 1050 km
Radiation environment
Aurora
Key: > 23 MeV, > 38 MeV, > 59 MeV, > 96 MeV
– Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)
– Electrons in the “Horns” of outer belt
ICO
1/2 maximum
Background x 3 maximum
• Drift of Earth’s internal magnetic field (0.3 – 0.45
deg/year) changes location of SAA - old maps
inaccurate
• Accurate map crucial for mission planning, situational
awareness and anomaly resolution
1/10 maximum
Proton boundaries at 800 km
Developing next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awareness
SEDAR S
SPACE ENVIRONMENT DISTRIBUTED ANOMALY RESOLUTION SYSTEM
REQUIREMENT
Improved SSA
• Identify space weather effects
• Timely anomaly resolution
• Discrimination from hostile actions
Cultural Acceptance
At least some space environment sensors are
needed on every asset
Miniaturized, Easily-Integrated Instruments
Existing, upgraded, and novel instruments
affordably providing essential data
Distributed, Coordinated Capability
An architecture for configurable, distributed
instruments and on-board analysis
GOAL
Accurate, timely and
complete space
environment
information for
operators and
decision-makers
Space Environment Sensors
Micro-Meteoroid Impact Detector
Hypervelocity impacts to manned and
unmanned spacecraft are an increasing threat.
debris
kinetic ASATs
Integrated
Impact
Stand-off
Sensor
Optical
sensor
Debris
Plasma
Optical
Flash
Cabling and
RF sensor
Debris
plasma
sensor
impacts
electrostatic
discharge?
2 GHz
0 µs
time
10 µs
Collaboration with AFRL/RVSV, NASAJSC, & Sandia Natl Lab has begun.
AFRL goal is to produce a flight
DETECTION … LOCALIZATION … CHARACTERIZATION … ATTRIBUTION
instrument in FY11.
Acoustic
Signature
Mechanical
Deformation
Wavelet analysis
8 MHz
Microwave
receiver
RF
Emissions
IMPACT SIGNATURE ANALYSIS
RF time series
“frequency”
micrometeoroids
Preliminary experiments in FY04-06
demonstrated that an integrated
optical and RF instrument could
remotely detect hypervelocity (1–70
km/s) impacts.
Orbital Drag Environments
Specification and Forecasting
Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled
physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite
drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects
Technology Challenges
• Miniaturized, low-power, capable, reliable
autonomous space-based sensors
• Physics-based coupled model development
• Active plasma control technologies
• Space-based neutral-wind monitoring;
characterization of appropriate orbital
parameters
• Data assimilation and forecasting
Developing first physics-based model to accurately
specify/forecast the satellite drag environment
SWx Impacts to Missions
Space Weather Forecast Laboratory
 Facility for integrating AFRL
and related space weather
forecast capabilities
 Test bed for testing and
evaluating space weather
forecasting techniques, tools,
and models
 Focus for transfer of R&D
models into operational usage
(as per National Space
Weather Panel Assessment
Committee)
SWFL
A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops
Model Coupling
Space Weather Forecast Laboratory
SWFL Activities
• End-to-end validation
• Tailoring for DoD needs
• Science Applications
• Increasing system TRL
• Product generation
• Scientist “training”
• Supports FLTC 2.6.3 –
“Integrated Space
Environment”
SWFL looking to bridge the gap between CISM and warfighter
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Conclusion
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We are in a rapidly emerging state of technology to enable space weather
forecasting for current and future DoD systems
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AFRL’s role is to bridge the gap between space weather research and
warfighter needs
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Future of space weather (from AF perspective):
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AFWA’s
Space
WOC
Robust Numerical Space Weather Prediction
More sensing through small, cheap, lightweight sensors on many satellites
Direct inclusion of space weather effects in systems and decision aids
GPS IIR-13
launch