The energy challenges of the
21st century
Mastering Technology Enterprise
Thun
28 september 2006
Hans B. (Teddy) Püttgen
Professeur - Chaire, Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques
Directeur - Centre Interdisciplinaire de l’Energie
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - EPFL
et
Past-President, IEEE Power Engineering Society
Background
• The industrial revolution started during the 19th century with
the advent of the steam engine burning coal.
• The advent of electricity enabled and fueled the economic
development during the 20th century.
• The information and communications revolution happened
during the second half of the 20th century with the broad
deployment of the semiconductors.
• The transportation revolution also happened during the 20th
century enabled by the high energy density of petroleum.
• The world has truly become a village - we can
communicate enormous amounts of information quasiinstantly and we can travel to all corners of the world within
a few hours.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
21st R & D drivers
• By the year 2050, the world’s population will have
increased to 9.1 billion an increase of 2.6 billion from
the 2005 situation. United Nations – 2004 data.
Not only will the population grow dramatically, but its
geographical distribution will also evolve:
– Europe’s population will decrease to 650 from 730 million at
present.
– Africa’s population will explode to 1,940 million from 910 at
present.
– Asia’s population will grow to 5.2 billion from 3.9 billion at
present.
– By 2050 India is expected to have a population of 1.6 billion
surpassing that of China at 1.4 billion.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
21st R & D drivers - 2
• The end of the petroleum era of man’s presence on
earth will come during the 21st century.
While we can not predict the exact date, there is broad
agreement that the peak production of petroleum will
occur some time during the 21st century.
At $60-$70 per barrel, the cost of petroleum is close to
being the highest it has ever been and will encourage
the deployment the more expensive extraction
technologies.
The recent discovery of the «Jack» oil field in the Gulf of
Mexico will increase the US reserves by 50%.
The era of inexpensive petroleum is definitely behind
us. Indeed, future price structures will be cost driven
as opposed to market driven.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century
1. Availability and broad access of reliable and
affordable health services world-wide.
While developed countries are rapidly running into a
major crisis in terms of the cost of health services,
developing countries are struggling to gain access to
health services to address immediate and very large
scale health crisis.
The canyon between the “have” and “have-nots” is
widened by the fact that most preventative medical
services, including medicines, are brought to market
by corporations from developed countries and at
costs which are often beyond the means of
developing countries.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 2
2. Production and distribution of food world-wide.
At present, developed countries are generally the
largest food producers in the world.
Increasing standards of living in developed countries,
coupled with intensifying competition on the world
market, which drives prices down, result in heavy
government subsidies provided by developed
countries to their farmers.
The latest round of WTO negotiations, failed due to
significant tensions between poor countries which
are demanding that rich countries stop subsidizing
their farmers in an effort to “level the playing field”.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Main R & D Challenges of the 21st century - 3
3. Production, transport and delivery of energy.
This is probably the one area where humanity will
have to consent to the heaviest investments during
the second part of this century.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Key statistics
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Key statistics - 1
Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Comb. Renew & Waste
Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..)
Total
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
1973
31.6*103
17.4*103
11.4*103
1.3*103
0.6*103
7.9*103
0.07*103
2003
42.3*103
30.0*103
26.1*103
2.7*103
8.0*103
13.3*103
0.6*103
70*103
123*103
Δ%
34
72
129
114
1’166
69
777
75
Key statistics - 2
Total Primary Energy Supply – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
OECD
Non-OECD Europe
Former USSR
Asia
China
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
Total
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
1973
43.8*103
1.1*103
10.1*103
4.3*103
5.1*103
2.6*103
2.5*103
0.8*103
2003
62.6*103
1.2*103
11.2*103
14.3*103
16.6*103
5.4*103
6.5*103
5.3*103
Δ%
43
10
11
233
229
108
165
569
70*103
123*103
75
Key statistics - 3
Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
Δ%
1973
2003
24.9*103
7.2*103
7.8*103
7.7*103
5.1*103
36.1*103
6.3*103
13.9*103
11.9*103
13.6*103
45
-13
78
55
168
Other (wind, solar, geothermal,..)
0.9*103
3.0*103
226
Total
53*103
Oil
Coal
Natural Gas
Comb. Renew & Waste
Electricity
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
85*103
58
Key statistics - 4
Total Energy Consumption – Terra Watt Hours (TWh)
OECD
Non-OECD Europe
Former USSR
Asia
China
Latin America
Africa
Middle East
Total
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
1973
2003
33.1*103
0.8*103
6.9*103
3.8*103
4.3*103
2.0*103
2.3*103
0.5*103
43.6*103
0.7*103
7.2*103
10.3*103
10.4*103
4.2*103
4.8*103
3.4*103
53*103
85*103
Δ%
32
-5
5
170
143
108
115
603
58
Key statistics - 5
Per Capita world-wide energy consumption – million of BTU
North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe & former USSR
Middle East
Africa
Asia & Oceania
Total
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
1982
2002
264.9
37.9
127.9
173.1
65.1
15.4
19.9
278.5
48.8
149.0
134.6
105.8
15.3
33.3
61.7
65.9
Δ%
5.1
28.8
16.5
-22.2
62.5
0.0
67.3
Switzerland key statistics - 1
Total energy utilization in 2002: 323 TWh
Petroleum
Gross hydro
Nuclear fuel
Natural gas
Other
45.6%
14.1%
24.1%
9.0%
7.2%
End-use consumption in 2002: 273 TWh
Fuel
Combustibles
Electricity
Natural gas
Other
32.7%
25.5%
22.8%
11.4%
7.6%
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Switzerland key statistics - 2
End-use distribution in 2002
Transportation
Households
Industry
Services
Agriculture & other
33.9%
27.7%
19.7%
17.1%
1.6%
Electric power production in 2002
Nuclear
Hydro - storage
Hydro – run of the river
Thermal and other
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
39.5%
29.1%
27.1%
4.3%
Energy production
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Present generation mix
• To-day, the primary generation technologies are:
– Hydro, either run-of-the-river facilities or various types of dams.
– Thermal, using either coal, oil or gas.
– Nuclear.
• The present generation mix already is:
– Distributed.
– Significantly renewable.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hydro
China:
Three Grorges: 19GW
New plant under construction: 40GW
Africa – Congo river
Planned - Grand Inga: 40GW
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hydro
Installed capacity
United States
Canada
Brazil
China
Japan
Russia
Percentage of production
Norway
Brazil
Venezuela
Canada
Russia
China
98%
84%
66%
58%
17%
15%
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Largest producers
Canada
Brazil
United States
China
Russia
Norway
Japan
India
France
Venezuela
Hydro
• Fully renewable and low ecological impact.
• In industrialized countries, almost all feasible sites
have been developed – the potential incremental
capacity is very low.
The only potential incremental energy capacity is by
way of conversion of existing storage facilities to
pumped-storage.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hydro
• Very significant incremental capacities are available
in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
Development will come at heavy ecological and
societal impacts. Some of the ecological impact will
go beyond regional to become world-wide.
ISSUE: World-wide environmental and ecological
public policy – major research needed.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Fossil fuels - coal
Largest exporters
Australia
Indonesia
China
South Africa
Russia
Columbia
Largest importers
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
Germany
UK
India
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Largest producers
China
United States
India
Australia
South Africa
Russia
Indonesia
Poland
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Fossil Fuel - Coal
• Heavy environmental impact.
• Technologies are available to significantly mitigate
the environmental impact; they are also very
expensive to implement & operate.
• The large scale deployment of CO2 sequestration and
utilization technologies are starting to become
feasible
ISSUES: Can industrialized countries impose such
technologies on emerging countries?
Potential of
• Coal liquefaction - gazeification
• Combined energy use
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Fossil fuels - petroleum
Largest exporters
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
Iran
Nigeria
Venezuela
Largest importers
United States
Japan
Korea
Germany
Italy
Chine
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Largest producers
Saudi Arabia
Russia
United States
Iran
Mexico
Chine
Venezuela
Norway
Canada
Nigeria
Fossil Fuel - Oil
• The “lust” of industrialized countries for oil is the
major reason for the increasing tensions world wide.
• There is broad agreement that the production of oil
will peak sometime during the 21st century.
ISSUES: When do we start focusing on the use of
carbon as a material as opposed to as fuel?
What new extraction technologies become
feasible as the price per barrel increases?
Additional reserves available using Ehanced
Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques – using CO2
well injections?
What is the potential of oil-shales?
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Fossil fuels – natural gas
Largest exporters
Russia
Canada
Norway
Algeria
Netherlands
Turkmenistan
Largest importers
United States
Germany
Japan
Italy
Ukraine
France
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Largest Producers
Russia
United States
Canada
UK
Algeria
Netherlands
Norway
Iran
Indonasia
Saudi Arabia
Fossil fuels – natural gas
• Environmentally more friendly.
• Transportation is technologically “cumbersome”
and requires heavy infrastructures.
• Heavy investments in distribution infrastructures
are under way in Switzerland.
ISSUE: Will we be able to continue to build liquid gas
harbor sites close to heavy consumption centers?
Political impact of the new producers on the
international scene?
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Nuclear
• 441 power plants are under operation in 31 countries
–
–
–
–
–
–
136 in Western Europe – 59 in France
128 in North America – 104 in the United States
89 in Asia
70 in the former USSR and Eastern Europe
16 in India and Pakistan
2 in Africa
• 16% of the world-wide electricity production
–
–
–
–
80% in France
28% in Germany
20% in the United States
Less than 5% in China
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Nuclear
• Heavy legacy impact.
• Public policies in industrialized countries have
rendered construction of new facilities unrealistic.
• The pebble bed technology could provide a solution
to build highly modular plants.
• Countries with emerging economies want to construct
nuclear power plants using existing technologies.
ISSUE: How can industrialized countries “monitor” suc
developments?
When and where will the next nuclear power
plant be built in the United States, in
Switzerland, in Germany, …..
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hydro, Fossil & Nuclear
• How do we site the new facilities?
What organization makes the decision and then
assumes it?
• The financing of large generation facilities have
reached a scale often beyond the capabilities of
the private sector.
• The construction and operation of the required
transmission systems are increasingly in “limbo”.
China is adding 60 000 MW per year of new electric
power generation capacity.
Some forecasts state that in 20 years we will go from
3 700 GW to 6 000 GW of installed electricity
generation capacity.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Bio-Fuel
• Bio-fuels have an enormous potential world-wide.
Brazil is the leading implementation country.
• Regions with strong agriculture and emerging
economies can potentially leverage their position by
exporting finished product.
• The transportation industry must embrace bio-fuels.
• The base crop used must be adapted to regional
conditions.
• Competition with food production must be avoided.
• Industrialized countries must settle their national
subsidy policies as well as their import regulations.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Bio-Fuel
A labeling-certification process, taking ecological, fair
trade issues, labor conditions, and grey energy
contents into account, must be broadly agreed upon
and implemented before significant market
penetration will occur.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Alternative Generation
Technologies
Renewable
•
Solar, photovoltaic or thermal
•
•
•
Wind
Geothermal
Ocean
Non-renewable
•
Internal combustion engine, ICE
•
•
•
•
Combined cycle
Combustion turbine
Micro-turbines
Fuel cell
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Photovoltaïc
Photovoltaic installation – 350 kW
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Photovoltaïc
• Environmentally very friendly.
• Installed capacities remain limited but growth is
strong: 1 GW per year or 30-50% per year.
• Capacity costs will remain high.
$5,000 / installed kW
• The most appropriate short-term application might be
in conjunction with other technologies such as Fuel
Cells.
Photovoltaics does not have the potential to displace
the need for installed capacity – it may only displace
energy production thereby rendering existing fossilfueled plants more expensive to operate.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Wind
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Wind
• Very rapid market penetration during past years –
10GW growth per year / 10-30% per year.
• 59,000 MW of installed capacity world-wide.
– 18,500 MW in Germany
– 10,000 MW in Spain
– 9,000 MW in the United States
• Large manufacturers, such as Siemens and GE are
heavy market participants.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Wind
•
•
•
•
•
Perceived as environmentally very friendly.
Significant noise pollution: 60 dB @ 30 m.
The installed capacity per machine is increasing – 3MW.
The capacity cost is attractive – under $2,000/kW
Installation of large wind farms is attractive but
technically not easy.
Wind power does not have the potential to displace the
need for installed capacity – it may only displace energy
production thereby rendering existing fossil-fueled plants
more expensive to operate.
Should be implemented in conjunction with large storage
systems – pumped hydro?
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Geothermal
• The geothermal energy resources are virtually limitless.
• It is environmentally friendly.
• Geothermal energy can be readily controlled as required
for deployment within an integrated energy supply chain.
• It can be installed for residential, commercial and
industrial facilities.
• Currently, a large demonstration site is under
construction in Basel – drillling t0 5 000 m is under way
under the Rhine.
• Large-scale electricity production has been on-going for
decades in the Geysers area in California, for example.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Renewables - Geothermal
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Alternative sources – Fuel cells
200 kW fuel cell from United Technologies for the
combined production of electricity and heat.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Alternative sources – Fuel cells
• Perceived as environmentally very friendly.
• Requires local hydrogen storage or reformer
installation.
• The installed capacities range from a few tens of kW
to a few tens of MW.
• The capacity costs are already compatible with large
scale deployment: $1,000 - $5,000 per kW.
Fuel cells can and will contribute to the installed
capacity mix.
ISSUE: Viability of the Hydrogen economy – large scale
implementation without nuclear questionable.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Alternative sources – Microturbines
30 kW Microturbine
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Alternative sources – Microturbines
• Not yet on the radar screen as far as public
perception is concerned.
• Installed capacities range from 1 few tens of kW to a
few MW. Individual units can be combined together
to create larger capacities.
• Small physical size provides for convenient
installation within buildings.
• Capital costs: $300 – $1,400 per kW.
Micro Turbines can and will contribute to the installed
capacity mix – on a localized basis.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century
Dream of generating energy from Deuterium
(omnipresent in water) and Tritium (from Lithium –
tens of thousands of years of reserves).
Tokamak TCV at
CRPP - EPFL
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Fusion - Energy source of the 22nd century
• Several major R&D efforts are on-going:
– ITER at Cadarache iun France
– Broader approach, in Japan
– University centers
• EPFL at Centre de Recherch pour la Physique des Plasma
• TU Münich at Garching
• Joint European Torus – JET, in the UK
• Many difficult hurdles must still be overcome before
broad commercial deployment will be possible.
– Very high temperatures required: 100 M 0C
– Materials resistance over longer time: radiation and
temperature.
– Plasma heating and containment technologies
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
End use
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Swiss vision on the end-use side
• 2 000 Watt society.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
2 000 Watt society
• Three cities are participating in pilot programs:
– Basel
– Zürich
– Lucern
• The main R&D focus is on:
– Building technologies, including natural light utilization for
lighting purposes.
– Transportation technologies
– Water management, especially within commercial and retail
facilities.
• Pro-active implementation of new codes and public
policies
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Evolution of the 2 000 Watt society
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hybrid vehicles
• Combination of internal combustion engine with an
on-board electric energy generation and storage.
• Consumptions of 3 liter/km are possible using
present diesel technologies.
• Gasoline or diesel engines can be used.
• Two main architectures:
– Series
– Parallel
• Major market players:
Toyota
Ford
Honda
Peugeot
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hybrid vehicles - series
• Engine never idles
• Engine drives the on-board generator and can
operate at maximum efficiency.
• Many practical implementation options
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Hybrid vehicles - parallel
• Smaller engines can be used.
• The internalé combustion engine and the electric
motor share the propulsion duties for the vehicle.
• Complex transmission systems are required
• Power can be directed to the wheels.
• A generator may not
be required
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System integration
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Most of the emerging distributed generation
technologies will be implemented at the
distribution level.
R & D: Evolution of the distribution system from a
feeder/radial configuration to a network
configuration – this evolution will also be driven
by the need for “premium power”.
R & D: Who will the distribution system operators be as
the system complexity increases?
R & D: Need for ultra-fast switching.
Need for very high current interruption.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Technical “opportunities”
• Power quality
– Impact of various power electronic interface
devices.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Technical “opportunities”
• Power quality
• Reactive power coordination and voltage
support.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Technical “opportunities”
• Power quality
• Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
• Reliability
– Reserve margin: not all technologies will
contribute to the installed capacity
– Redundancy
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Technical “opportunities”
• Power quality
• Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
• Reliability
– Reserve margin: not all technologies will contribute to the
installed capacity
– Redundancy
• Safety
– Bi-directional energy flow on distribution systems
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Technical “opportunities”
• Power quality
• Reactive power coordination and voltage support.
• Reliability
– Reserve margin: not all technologies will contribute to the
installed capacity
– Redundancy
• Safety
• Security
– Protection of the T & D infrastructure against outside threats.
– Construction of “self-healing” systems.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
Control systems
• Need for integrated controls.
– As the penetration of alternative generation reaches levels
where its installed capacity and/or energy production
becomes significant, the need for integrated controls
becomes paramount.
• Need for ubiquitous and bi-directional
communications
– Integration of “off the shelve” IT technologies.
– This is perhaps THE biggest challenge faced by all
manufacturers.
– Security and resiliency against external threats.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
System concerns
• Asset Management
– Maximize utilization of existing assets
– Cost avoidance
– Cost delays
• Diagnostics
– Non-intrusive and reliable diagnostics
– Data collection, storage and sorting
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
System Integration
• Superconductivity
Materials
– After superconducting magnet and energy storage
applications, which are already being commercially
deployed, which application will first see a breakthrough:
fault current limiters?
• Insulation
– Underground cable systems
– Fast - solid state switching
• Conductors
– Intelligent - variable resistance
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Public Policy and Economics
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Public Policy
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Bill Clinton’s campaign staff overall strategy call
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Public Policy
“It’s public policy, stupid”
• Public policy will dictate the level, the type,
the spectrum and the eventual success of
alternative generation.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Public Policy
• Public policy will dictate the level, the type, the
spectrum and the eventual success of alternative
generation.
• A successful energy public policy must be:
– Global in scope and coordination.
– Regional in actual formulation and implementation.
R & D: Need to create systematic approach to measure
the financial and societal impacts of Public Polic
proposals.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Conclusions
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Conclusions - 1
• Modern energy systems require very heavy
investments and are highly complex to design and
operate.
• They are crucial infrastructures for the economic
development of countries and the well-being of
populations all over the world.
• One of the major challenges of this century will be the
development of energy production and distribution
systems which are reliable, affordable and
sustainable - electricity is already at the core of
these issues and will so remain.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
Conclusions - 2
• Significant challenges remain to be resolved
– Integration of new energy sources.
– Design of transport and distribution systems which are
resilient against external threats and economical to operate.
– Implementation of energy end-use techologies which have
acceptable environmental impact levels and which are
affordable for the population at large.
• World-wide cooperation will be essential.
The world is interconnected by way of the
environment.
• More than ever, we need well-educated and highly
motivated young professionals to address and
resolve the energy challenges of the future.
The Energy Challenges during the 21st Century
The energy challenges of the
21st century
Mastering Technology Enterprise
Thun
28 september 2006
Hans B. (Teddy) Püttgen
Professeur - Chaire, Gestion des Systèmes Energétiques
Directeur - Centre Interdisciplinaire de l’Energie
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne - EPFL
et
Past-President, IEEE Power Engineering Society