Tajikistan: A Mechanism for Delivering Aid to
the Poorest Households
The World Bank
Subjects of the presentation
I.
Issue: there is no effective way to distribute aid to
the poorest households.
II. Background: the national economy, poverty,
malnutrition, and migration.
III. Evaluation of the present social protection system.
IV. Design of the reform.
V. Piloting the reform.
VI. Evaluation of the pilot.
VII.Next steps.
I. There is no effective way to distribute aid to the poorest households
Motivation: experience during the 2008 food crisis
1. Over the spring and summer of 2008, food commodity prices and
especially wheat prices rose sharply.
2. This lowered real purchasing power, public welfare, and put
child nutrition at risk in Tajikistan –especially since bread is the
staple food .
3. The World Bank and other donors, such as the World Food
Program, received funds for use in offsetting the impact of the
food price increase on the poorest households.
4. Neither the Government nor donors had any mechanism for
identifying the poorest households.
5. There were no lists (no registry) and this blocked donor aid.
This led to a request for assistance
1. In 2009, the Government of Tajikistan asked the World Bank for
help in building a poverty-targeted social protection system.
2. In response, the World Bank:
i. Prepared an evaluation of the current system of social
assistance.
ii. Prepared a methodology for targeting social assistance
iii. Helped the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection to pilot
the methodology in two districts.
iv. Evaluated the pilot.
v. And is funding construction of a National Registry of Social
Protection to manage applications, computation of eligibility,
and payments.
II. Country Background:
Geography and its consequences for food security & AID.
 Tajikistan is a largely mountainous country and only 3 percent of
its territory can be cultivated.
 Tajikistan experiences earthquakes, landslides (especially when
the spring melts snow), flooding, and drought –which all harm
food security.
 Tajikistan has a rugged border with Afghanistan, which favors
heroin trafficking from Afghanistan through to Russia and beyond.
 The country could become a target for the Taliban once the US
withdraws from Afghanistan.
 These are the sources of emergencies that harm food security and
motivate donors to aid poor households.
Position of Tajikistan in Central Asia
Economic background: A civil war in the mid-1990s disrupted agriculture
and trade and drove down GDP, which has recovered since about 2000.
Main industries and sources of poverty
 COTTON: This was grown in large plantations, which paid low
wages to laborers and by small farmers forced to grow cotton.
Production is now falling as foreign lenders withdraw financing and
because the Government now allows small farmers to decide what
crop to grow. Rents accrue to elites.
 ALUMINUM: Produced a large Soviet-era, electricity-intensive,
and government run plant. Rents accrue to elites.
 HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER: This is limited by physical
capacity. Rents accrue to elites.
 HEROIN SMUGGLING: Little is known. Rents accrue to elites.
 SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE: Home gardening and herding
of sheep and other livestock . Productivity is low. Benefits accrue to
the population.
 CONCLUSION: Large majority of the population derives little
income from domestic economic activity.
The national poverty rate was 47 percent in 2009 and poverty was
concentrated in rural areas and among families with several
children
50
49.2
47.2
48
46
44
41.8
42
40
38
Tajikistan
Urban
Rural
Poverty rates in 2009
70
62.4
60
50.9
50
36.5
40
30
29.5
20
10
0
None
One
Two
Three
Household poverty rate by number of children.
Tajikistan: nutrition situation
 Underweight (low weight/age) in children aged 0 to 59 months
was 12.5% in July 2011 (WFP).
 Wasting (low weight/height) is a problem particularly for children
less than 24 months of age (WFP).
 Stunting (low height/age) was 29 percent among children aged 6
to 59 months (UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, 2009).
Note: The high stunting rate means that infants and young children suffer from
chronic under-nutrition, which severely and often irreversibly affects not only the
physical but also cognitive development of children. Stunting in the first two years
of life is especially damaging as it increases children’s vulnerability to disease and
early death. If the children survive, they face poor physical health throughout their
lives and limited capacity to learn and earn an income.
Main survival strategy: migration
 Poverty and malnutrition spurred a mass migration of men to
Russia. A large fraction of the population are, in effect,
economic refugees who have left Tajikistan to earn a living for
themselves and their families.
 The exact volume of migration is not known, but the World
Bank Office in Tajikistan estimates that about 1.5 million
people, mostly men, out of a total population of 6.8 million
people have migrated to Russia to work.
 Migrants sent home about USD 2.3 billion in 2010, which
contributed greatly to the survival of the population.
III. Evaluation of Tajikistan’s Social Protection System:
Tajikistan spends less on social assistance, as a percentage of
GDP, than any other country in the region.
,
Hungary 06
Croatia 08
Bosnia 08
OECD 05
Belarus 08
Uzbekistan 07
Ukraine 08
Serbia 08
Russia 06
Albania 08
Romania 07
Estonia 06
Lithuania 08
Kosovo 08
Poland 07
Moldova 08
Kazakhstan 07
Bulgaria 08
Kyrgyzstan 08
Georgia 07
Montenegro 08
Armenia 08
Macedonia 08
Latvia 08
Azerbaijan 08
Turkey 07
Tajikistan 09
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Share of social assistance spending in GDP in ECA
Countries (in percentage points)
4.0%
The main social assistance program compensates households for
increases in electricity and natural gas prices.
Table 1: Budget expenditures on social assistance in 2009
Program
Annual budget in US$
millions
Share in GDP, in percentage
points
Social Assistance
$9.96
0.20%
$22.18
0.45%
$12.22
0.25%
$4.87
0.10%
$2.86
0.06%
Social Assistance plus Social Pensions
Social Pensions
Main social assistance programs:
Electricity & Gas Compensation
Compensation to needy families whose children study in school (Conditional
Cash Payments)
Sources: Ministry of Finance, State Agency for Social Insurance & Pensions, World Bank
Social assistance benefits are a tiny proportion of the income of
the poorest quintile of households
60
56.8
52.0
50
45.8 45.0
43.4
39.8
40
30
36.1 35.4
33.6
31.6
30.1
28.9
27.1 26.6 26.3
25.4 24.3
23.5
20.6
20
11.2
10.1
10
9.4
2.9
0
Source: World Bank, ECA data base
Generosity - Social assistance as a share of the income of the poorest quintile in
ECA counties (Percentage point shares)
Coverage rate: Social assistance benefits reached only about 20
percent the poorest quintile (20 percent) of households. The rest
leaked to higher better off groups.
100
90
80
70
94.4
86.3
75.7
72.7
69.5 69.0
67.2
60
50
57.9
55.2 54.3 54.2 53.3
52.4
50.1
44.3 44.3
40
30
20
10
0
Source: World Bank, ECA data base
Coverage of the poorest quintile of households.
39.2
36.9
31.9 31.7 31.0
28.3
22.0 21.0
19.9
The case for reform is overwhelming.
The consolidated budget shows that social assistance is
relatively small.
Furthermore, analysis of the 2009 data shows that the
current social assistance programs are relatively
ineffective in reaching the poor and in reducing
poverty.
And finally, the review of implementation of the
programs identified slips in budgeting, targeting, and
accountability.
IV. Design of the reform
Overview of the reform
The Government decided to pursue the following
strategy:
Consolidate the present programs into a single
social assistance program.
Adopt a system of targeting of social assistance.
Manage applications, decisions on eligibility, and
payments through an National Electronic
Registry.
Proxy-means test for targeting.
 Benefits could be targeted by region, by using and income
test, a proxy-means test, or mixed-tests. The Government
rejected geographic targeting of the poorest districts on the
grounds that this was inequitable. In any case, no poverty
data are available at the district level.
 Income tests are not practical because households will not
report receipt of remittances from abroad and it’s difficult to
estimate household income from subsistence agriculture.
 So the Government agreed to apply a proxy-means test
(PMT).
 The World Bank team estimated the test from household
budget expenditure and asset data.
Variables used in the best performing models
Characteristic
Household size
Gas oven
Generator
Electric radiator
Refrigerator
Satellite dish
Car or truck
Computer
Household Head's Employment Sector
Household Head’s Education
Housing Roof Material
Number of Children under 15
Oblast
Total Number of Variables
Used for Urban
Model
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
11
Source: World Bank analysis of the Tajikistan Living Standard Survey of 2009.
Used for Rural
Model
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
Variables and Weights for the proxY-means tests
Urban
Variable
Log household size
Electric radiator
Refrigerator
Computer
Satellite dish
Car or truck
Number of children under 15 years
Employment in Agriculture, Fishing or Forestry
Employment in Manufacturing or Mining
Employment in Services (utilities)
Employment in Construction
Employment in Public Admin, Health or Educ.
Employment in Sales and Services
Weight
-0.5694
0.2333
0.2135
0.2354
0.2399
0.3137
-0.0253
0.2389
0.0427
0.1548
-0.0109
-0.0215
0.1141
Sector of Employment = Other
Household head’s education = basic
Household head’s education = secondary
Household head’s education = higher
Housing roof material = metal sheeting, tiles, mud,
concrete slab
Housing roof material = thatch
oblast = Sughd
oblast = Khatlon
oblast = RRP
oblast = GBAO
Constant
-0.0375
-0.1727
-0.0107
0.1081
-0.0846
0.2684
0.0038
0.0526
0.2395
-0.0616
5.8783
Source: World Bank analysis of the Tajikistan Living Standard Survey of 2009
Rural
Variable
Household size = 4 to 5
Household size = 6 to 7
Household size = 8 to 12
Household size = 13 or more
Gas oven
Generator
Electric radiator
Car or truck
Satellite dish
children under 15 = 1 or 2
children under 15 = 3
children under 15 = 4 to 6
children under 15 = 7 or more
Weight
-0.2182
-0.3063
-0.4412
-0.6043
0.0801
0.2033
0.3441
0.2203
0.1915
-0.1041
-0.2329
-0.3391
-0.4688
Housing roof material = metal sheeting,
tiles, mud, concrete slab
Housing roof material = thatch
oblast = Sughd
oblast = Khatlon
oblast = GBAO
Constant
-0.1865
-0.0249
-0.1258
-0.1448
-0.2360
5.6923
Performance of the proxy-means test model in simulation
Settlement Type
N
R2
Predicted error of
Inclusion
Exclusion
Predicted targeting
accuracy
Urban
539
48.8%
42.3%
31.0%
57.7%
Rural
963
29.2%
47.5%
50.4%
52.5%
All
1,502
.
45.9%
45.4%
54.1%
Note: The scoring formulas are estimated for rural and urban areas separately. The target group is the
lowest quintile of per-capita consumption. Source: World Bank analysis of the TLSS 2009. ‘N’ is
the number of households in the sample. ‘R2’ is the percent of variation in consumption per capita
that’s explained by the formula (estimated regression equation).
V. Pilot of the reform
Proxy means-test for targeting.
 The Government launched a pilot program of consolidated
and poverty-targeted social assistance in Yevon and
Istaravshan districts in 2011.
 It targeted the nationally poorest 20 percent of households
using the proxy-means test (above).
 Between January 2011 and January 2012, 18,299 applicant
households applied for the pilot social assistance benefit in
the two districts, representing approximately 116,000
household members.
 The Government paid social assistance benefits to the
households that the proxy-means test identified as poor.
VI. Evaluation of the Pilot:
The evaluation draws on two large surveys
In the two pilot districts, enumerators interviewed
2,000 applicant households and 500 non-applicant
households.
In a national survey, enumerators interviewed
2,000 households.
Interviews obtained detailed information on
consumption spending, assets (including livestock),
housing characteristics, education, and health.
Estimated results of the pilot
National Quintile Group
1
2
3
4
5
Total
Population in Istaravshan and Yevon
162,338
81,896
60,864
61,032
37,310
403,440
Share of population in each quintile
40%
20%
15%
15%
9%
100%
Probability someone knows about the program
in each quintile
54%
42%
47%
37%
42%
47%
Probability someone applied in each quintile
30%
25%
25%
25%
42%
29%
No. of applicants (incl. household members)
49,105
20,760
15,285
15,112
15,630
115,891
73%
73%
62%
54%
37%
64%
35,991
15,081
9,511
8,235
5,851
74,669
Coverage; probability someone was
beneficiary in each quintile
22%
18%
16%
13%
16%
19%
Targeting: share of benefits going to each
quintile
48%
20%
13%
11%
8%
100%
Probability of application being selected
No. of selected beneficiaries (incl. household
members)
Coverage of the poorest quintile is low because too few of
them applied
30 percent of the poorest quintile applied.
Only 54 percent of the poorest quintile knew about
the pilot program.
Nevertheless, the coverage rate for the target group
(the nationally poorest 20%) was still higher than in
the existing programs.
Less than 30% of applicants in lowest quintile (the
poorest); more than 40% applied in the highest quintile
Proxy-Means Test performed relatively well
 The PMT formula performed well in identifying
48% of the nationally poorest 20% in the pilot
districts.
 Most of the inclusion errors are in the second
quintile.
 The PMT performance was particularly high
when considering those who were among the
poorest 40% nationally: 48% of the poorest
applicants enrolled (23% in current programs).
Proxy-means test: Who was selected?
The percentage of accepted applications is highest at the lowest quintile, and
lowest for the highest quintile
Main conclusions from the evaluation.
 The proxy-means test formula performed better
in identifying the eligible beneficiaries than the
current programs on conditional cash transfers,
electricity and gas compensation.
 Coverage of the poor is unacceptably low.
Ways to improve targeting of social assistance
 Improve the proxy-means test through reestimation from 2012 data.
 Mobilize and train local officials and community
leaders to disseminate information and collect
applications.
New Proxy-means test
2012 National Survey could lead to a more
accurate test because it includes new variables
Housing construction and components.
Plumbing and water supply.
More detail on farm animals.
Cows, bulls, male goats, female goats, donkeys,
rabbit, beehives, poultry, fish for aquaculture,
sheep, pigs.
Variables most correlated with consumption
Both Urban and Rural
• Landline phone
• Generator
• Electric radiator
• Fridge
• Washing machine
• Electric heater
• Microwave
• Electric sewing
• Computer
• Satellite dish
• Car or truck
• Chimney
• Number of people in HH
• Living density
Urban Only
• Electric oven
• Electric stove
• Metal bars window
• HHH education
• Labor force status
• Children under 11 years
• Housing Floor
• Marital Status
Rural Only
• Gas cylinders
• Gas oven
• Broshooka
• Electric Fan
• Housing Foundation
• HHH age
• Children under 14
Performance of 2009 vs 2012
0.7
PMT Coverage Rates by Quintile
0.6
0.5
0.4
2012
0.3
2009
0.2
0.1
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Quintile
Q4
Q5
Community outreach to increase the number of
applications from poor households
The information campaign should target the poor
community through training of local civil servants
and leaders, rather than target the broad public
through TV, radio, and newspaper ads.
Mobilize traditional community leaders (mahalya
rais), women’s committees, and other community
leaders to:
Disseminate information on the pilot.
Gather applications.
Check the accuracy of information (to avoid
rejection of applications at the district level).
Measuring impact of social assistance reform in
Tajikistan using regression discontinuity
18,298 applicants, representing 115,891 people,
had applied in the pilot districts by March 2012
This is 29% of the population of the pilot districts
Transfer is 100 Somoni Per Quarter (21 USD)
 7 USD per month per household
 Represents 2.4 % of average household
consumption in the pilot districts
Evaluation Methodology: Regression
Discontinuity
Compare the outcomes (e.g. food consumption)
of eligible and non-eligible applicants…. around
the 180 threshold PMT score
Two detailed surveys in 2012:
Pilot district survey: interviewed 2000 applicant
households and 500 randomly selected nonapplicant households
National survey: interviewed 2000 randomly selected
households
Preliminary results from regression discontinuity
tests
Strong results
 Food consumptions increased.
 No significant impact on employment, or education and health
expenditures
Weak
 Child labor decreased in female-headed households.
 School absenteeism decreased in female-headed households.
These results would be surprising, if confirmed, considering the
small size of the social assistance benefits.
VII. Next Steps
 The Government plans to expand the piloting to 8
additional districts.
 The expanded pilot will apply the proxy-means test
estimated from 2012 data, and adjustment to include more
elderly households.
 There will be an outreach program through training of
civil servants and use of community leaders to spread
information and gather applications.
 Construction of an IT system for management of
applications, eligibility decisions, and for financial
controls on payments