AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Circular Flow Model RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Gross Domestic Product Valuation of economy Value of production, not simply production Final Goods Second hand goods not included Transfers not included RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 GDP GDP = AD (Aggregate Demand) GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) C = Personal Consumption I = Capital Investments G = Government Expenditures No transfer payments X-M = Net Exports = eXports - iMports RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 GDP vs GNP Gross Domestic Product What is produced within a country’s borders, regardless of who produces it. Mercedes built in America count towards American GDP Fords built in Germany count towards German GDP Gross National Product What is produced by the citizens of a country, regardless of where they produce it. Mercedes built in America count towards German GNP Fords built in Germany count towards American GNP RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Real vs Nominal GDP Nominal Value of current production in current prices Real Value of current production in base year prices GDPReal = (GDPNom)(Price Index) %∆GDPReal = %∆GDPNom - %Δ Index RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 CPI Consumer Price Index Measure inflation Base year Market Basket What is the difference between the CPI and the GDP deflator? Both are price indices but they have different market baskets. The CPI includes consumer goods whereas the GDP deflator contains all items that are produced domestically. RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Causes of Inflation 2 types Demand-pull inflation Aggregate demand > productive capacity Causes include increases in money supply or credit. Cost-push Prices increased by producers to cover higher costs of production. Supply shocks such as changes in oil prices, crop failures & natural disasters. RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 5 Major Effects of Inflation Decreased purchasing power Decreased value of real wages Increased interest rates Decreased savings & investing Increased production costs RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Unemployment Unemployed – must be looking for work to be part of labor force. Unemployment rate is % of labor force that is unemployed. Types of unemployment include: Frictional Seasonal Structural Cyclical Full employment is economy at full steam. Since there is always frictional & structural unemployment, the Natural unemployment rate is the unemployment rate for full employment. RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Consumption Function Consumption Function C = a + b (DI) a = autonomous spending spending when income = 0 B = consumption rate Consumption DI CF Savings Dissavings Disposable Income RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Marginal Propensity to Consume & Save MPC = ΔC/ΔDI MPC= Consumption rate in consumption function MPS = ΔS/ΔDI MPC + MPS = 1 C=Consumption, S=Savings, DI=Disposable Income RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Multiplier Multiplier = 1 / MPS = 1 / (1-MPC) Examples MPC = .9, Multiplier = 1/.1 = 10 MPC = .8, Multipler = 1/.2 = 5 MPC = .5, Multiplier = 1/.5 = 2 NB Taxes have a smaller multiplier than direct government spending RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review AD – AS Model Price Level LRAS Long-run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) SRAS Short-run Aggregate Supply (SRAS) P Aggregate Demand (AD) = C+I+G+(X-M) AD YO GDPR RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AD – AS Model - Inflation Price Level LRAS SRAS GDP beyond L-R Equilibrium at Y1 & P Inflationary Gap Higher rates drive down interest sensitive expenditures (AD ) P P2 AD Shift causes Y to go to L-R YO, & P AD2 YO Y1 AD GDPR Economy producing Beyond L-R capacity RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review AD – AS Model - Inflation Price Level SRAS LRAS GDP below L-R Equilibrium at P & Y1 SRAS2 Recessionary Gap Lack of demand drives down nominal wages ( SRAS ) P P2 SRAS2 shift results in P & Y AD Y1 YO GDPR Economy producing under L-R capacity RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Shifts in AD Changes in expectations Expectations – AD Changes in wealth Wealth , - AD Amount of physical capital Existing Capital – AD Fiscal policy Government spending – AD Monetary policy Money supply – AD RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Shifts in SRAS Commodity prices Example is oil Prices - AS Nominal wages Wages - AS Productivity Productivity - AS RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AD AS Model Shifts of AD Demand shock Negative “Great Depression” ADN, EN, PN, YN Ag. Pr. Level SRAS EP PP PE ESR PN ADP EN ADN Positive WWII ADP, EP, PP, YP YN YE YP AD Real GDP RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review AD AS Model Positive Demand Shock AD shifts to AD2 E1 up to E2 P1 up to P2 YP up to Y2 Inflationary Gap Ag. Pr. Level P3 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 SRAS2 SRAS LRAS E3 P2 P1 E2 E1 AD2 Inflation causes L-R increase in wages AD SRAS shifts to SRAS2 E2 shifts to E3 P2 up again to P3 Y2 down to YP YP Y2 Real GDP RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AD AS Model Shifts of SRAS Supply shock Negative Oil Crisis SRASN, EN, PN, YN SRASN Ag. Pr. Level SRAS SRASP PN EN PE ESR PP EP AD Positive Internet SRASP, EP, PP, YP YN YE YP Real GDP RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Continuum – Government Policies Restrictive Low Growth Low Inflation Expansionary High Growth High Inflation RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Fiscal Policy Expansionary Stimulates economy Decrease taxes and/or increase spending Increases disposable incomes/demand Inflationary & leads to debt Restrictive Expansionary Restrictive Reduces Disposable income/demand. Lack of cash reduces investments. Reduction in government spending/programs RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Monetary Policy Easy Money Increases growth (good) Increases inflation (bad) Tight Money Easy Money Tight Money Decreases growth (bad) Decreases inflation (good) RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 How the Fed Can Change MS Fed Tools 1. 2. 3. 4. Open Market Operations Fed Funds Rate & Discount Rate Reserve Requirements for Banks Moral suasion RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review Money Supply up Interest Rates down Exchange rates down 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Expansionary Policy Investments up AD up GDPR up GDPN up Exports up Imports down Price Level up Inflation up Unemploy -ment down RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Phillips Curve Inflation LRPC S-R trade-off between Inflation & unemployment Trade-off does not Occur in the L-R Shifts in SRPC the result of Δ expected inflation %2 SRPC2 % SRPC NRU/ NAIRU Unemployment RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review Money Supply Interest Rate, i i = nominal interest rates MS Δ in MS controlled by the Fed Reserve i M*V=P*Q MS*Velocity or multiplier = Price Level * Output MD M GDPR RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review Interest rate Money Supply & Interest Rates Money supply MS2 Price Level Increased MS leads to r 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Lower r leads to C & I meaning AD AD shifts right, leading to Price Level & GDPR SRAS P2 P1 r1 AD2 r2 MD1 Mde1 Mde2 Quantity of money AD1 Y1 Y2 GDPR RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review r = real interest rates Loanable Funds Interest Rate, r SM NB - With interest rates i includes inflation while r is for real r DM YO GDPR RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Terms Crowding out Government competes with or eliminates private enterprise. Providing a service otherwise supplied by a company Competing in the marketplace for loans to finance debt. Rational Expectations Theory Businesses & consumers react to expected changes in monetary & fiscal policy, thereby negating their impact. Automatic Stabilizers adjust automatically, without government deliberation, to offset economic conditions RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review Crowding Out Effect – Change in Demand Interest Rate, r ∆ in Demand: government debt creates additional demand for funds. S1 r2 r1 Rightward shift of demand curve results in r & Q . D2 D1 Q1 Q2 Quantity of Loanable Funds RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review Crowding Out Effect – Change in Supply S2 Interest Rate, r ∆ in Supply: Government is Most credit worthy Borrower, so Fed Debt removes supply S1 r2 r1 Leftward shift of Supply curves results In r & Q D1 Q2 Q1 Quantity of Loanable Funds RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review Automatic Stabilizers $ Deficit – Economy in recession, causes taxes to drop below govt. expenditures Taxes Surplus – Economy booms, causes taxes to increase above govt spending Govt Automatic adjustments to economic conditions by increasing deficit during recessions & increasing surplus in boom periods (income taxes) GDPR RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Macroeconomic Theories Classical Changes in MS only affect nominal rates, not real Automatic stabilizers will correct market fluctuations No government action Keynesian Fiscal policy as a tool to correct cyclical fluctuations Govt spending up to offset recessions Monetarists Govt often wrong or late, only make matters worse MS to grow at rate of GDP growth (no fiscal remedies) RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Foreign Trade Revisit Comparative & Absolute advantages from Micro PP Balance of Payments Current Account – Transactions w/o liabilities Capital Account – Transactions w/ liabilities Exchange Rate Changes Consumer tastes Relative incomes Relative inflation Speculation Money supply/ relative interest rates RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review Exchange Rates Demand for $ increases as other currencies trade for $ $/€ €/$ S S2 Demand Curve shifts to D2 causing $ & Q Looking at exchange rate from other side – euros/dollar High demand for $ means people want to trade euros in & this leads to excess supply $2 € $ €2 D Qe Q2 D2 Supply curve shifts to S2, causing € & Q Q RMCE/HWRHS 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 AP Macroeconomics Test Review International Trade & Taxes Dollars/ Euro SDom Example: US Oil Market Equilibrium at $100 & 10M Barrels. Effects of tariff include P $10, Q 1M barrels, & Imports 2M barrels $100 $90 $80 World price is $80. Effect on US market is Demand at $80 Is 12M while Supply is 8M. Difference of 4M is imports. Imports D Q Protective tariff of $10/Barrel added 8 9 10 11 12 Deadweight Loss (DWL) RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Graph Relationships I Money Market MS i Investment Demand MS i i i i MD M M Contraction of MS leads to higher i, which reduces I, causing GDP to fall Graph reversed so GDP is falling M I I I I I I Y Y GDPR RMCE/HWRHS AP Macroeconomics Test Review 8 AM – May 17th, 2012 Graph Review – MS I/R Money Supply MS I/R Loanable Funds Fed increases MS i MS i S S r r i MD M M D Q I/R q q Investment Demand r leads to I MS leads to shift right in S in r loanable funds r r&q Q I/D I I Q Inflation I = AD P/L = X & M AD = AD = P & Y Supply of $ Phillips CurveInflation & Exchange Rates ER & q P/L ADAS Model A/B LRPC Unemployment S AS S ER ER % P P AD SRPC % D U/R NRU Unemployment q q Q AD YY Real GDP RMCE/HWRHS