Human Well-being and
The State of the Planet
Can the Earth Sciences
Help Alleviate Global Poverty?
Prof. John C. Mutter
Deputy Director
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Can our science help people like this ……
Three part case for the co-dependence of
human well-being and the state of the planet
 Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poor
 Small variations around the norm in poor countries can
act like disasters in rich countries
 There is a global ecology of human well-being
Disasters
and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Disaster mortality risk from combined hazards
(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)
Income per person, PPP (1998)
Infant Mortality
What is the Human Development Index (HDI)?
A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of
human development:
LONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth;
KNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary,
secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;
STANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in
US$).
HDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.
1000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths per Million Pop.
Bottom 40% Average
100.00
Middle 40% HDI
Middle 40% Average
Top 20% HDI
Top 20% Average
10.00
1.00
0.10
Aggregate Natural Disasters
Source UNDP 2004
0.01
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths
1000.00
10000.00
Relative Flood Vulnerability
10,000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
1,000.00
Venezuela
Middle 40% HDI
China
India
Top 20% HDI
Average annual deaths
Nepal
Indonesia
100.00
Morocco
Japan
U.S.
Egypt
10.00
Argentina
Djibouti
Gambia
Botsw ana
1.00
Germany
UK
Kazakhstan
New Zealand
0.10
Kuw ait
Sw itzerland
Kyrgyzstan
Norw ay
0.01
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Relative Cyclone Vulnerability
10,000.00
Bangladesh
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
1,000.00
India
Top 20% HDI
Philippines
Honduras
Average annual deaths
Viet Nam
China
US
Nicaragua
100.00
Mexico
Rep. of Korea
Pakistan
Japan
Thailand
El Salvador
Malaysia
10.00
Fiji
Sw aziland
Cape Verde
Comoros
Papua New Guinea
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Venezuela
Australia
Lao
Colombia
1.00
Belize
New Zealand
0.10
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
Average population exposed to cyclones
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
Relative Earthquake Vulnerability
10,000.00
Iran
Bottom 40% HDI
1,000.00
Armenia
Middle 40% HDI
Turkey
India
Top 20% HDI
Italy
Average annual deaths
100.00
China
Yemen
10.00
Nicaragua
Japan
Indonesia
Philippines
Chile
US
Guatemala
Australia
1.00
Romania
Uganda
0.10
Kazakhstan
Belgium
Germany
New Zealand
Brazil
0.01
1,000
10,000
Argentina
100,000
1,000,000
Average population exposed to earthquakes
10,000,000
100,000,000
Relative Drought Vulnerability
100,000.00
Bottom 40% HDI
10,000.00
Ethiopia
Middle 40% HDI
Sudan
Mozambique
Average annual deaths
Top 20% HDI
1,000.00
Mauritania
100.00
China
Chad
Indonesia
India
10.00
Madagascar
Uganda
Pakistan
Kenya
Papua New Guinea
1.00
Brazil
Guinea
Burundi
0.10
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Average population exposed to droughts
Philippines
10,000,000
100,000,000
Three part case for the co-dependence of
human well-being and the state of the planet
 Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poor
 Small variations around the norm in poor countries can
act like disasters in rich countries
 There is a global ecology of human well-being
Climate variability
and Malaria risk
Three part case for the co-dependence of
human well-being and the state of the planet
 Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poor
 Small variations around the norm in poor countries can
act like disasters in rich countries
 There is a global ecology of human well-being
Income per person, PPP (1998)
Income per person, PPP (1998)
GDP per
capita as a
function of
latitude.
Poverty has a
latitudinal
dependence
(J. Sachs)
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
-10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
-30
-50
-70
HDI (1980-2000)
0.8
1.0
Flood vulnerability
70
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
50
HDI highest 20%
50
30
10
-10 0
-30
-50
1
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
100
10
-10
-30
-70
Flood Vulnerability
-50
0.0
1000
0.2
0.4
Flood disaster economic losses
Flood disaster mortality
Cyclone vulnerability
70
70
HDI low est 40%
50
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
30
-10 0
-30
-50
1
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
10 10
-10
100
0.0
-30
-70
-50
Cyclone Vulnerability
1000
0.2
0.4
Earthquake vulnerability
70
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
50
30
-30
1
10
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
10
-10 0
HDI highest 20%
50
10
100
-10
0.0
1000
0.2
100000.4
-30
-50
-50
-70
-70
Earthquake Vulnerability
HDI (1980-20
Drought vulnerability
70
70
HDI low est 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
50
50
30
10
-10 0
-30
1
10
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
30
100
10
-10
-30
0.0
0.2
1000
0.4
0.6
10000
-50
-70
HDI (1980-2000)
-50
-70
Drought Vulnerability
Conflict and Drought
Disaster Mortality risk is a proxy for poverty
Can our science help people like this ……
……. I hope so.