The World is Flat – Thomas Friedman Doug Derrick Shaokun Fan Kunpeng Zhang Aaron Elkins Noyan Ilk David Zimbra Agenda Introduction Section Reviews Ten Flatteners – Doug Triple Convergence and Sorting Out – Noyan America and the Flat World – David Developing Countries – Shaokun Companies and the Flat World – Kunpeng Geopolitics and the Flat World – Aaron Conclusion 2 Book Overview “It’s not the strongest of the species that survives… nor the most intelligent… but the one most responsive to change.” - Charles Darwin 3 When I was sleeping Jet Blue Airlines reservations are taken by “housewives” in Salt Lake City Order drive through food in Missouri via Colorado Call center Your tax return is completed in India 4 SECTION 1 THE TEN FLATTENERS 5 The Ten Flatteners – Number 1 11/9/89 – The New Age of Creativity Fall of the Berlin Wall Rise of PCs and Microsoft Windows 6 The Ten Flatteners – Number 2 8/9/95 – The New Age of Connectivity Netscape goes public – A “Browser” The rise of the World Wide Web The Internet Goes Mainstream Interoperability Fiber Optic Cable Explosion 7 The Ten Flatteners – Number 3 The New Age of Compatibility Automating work flows Started with PCs and email Standardized Protocols (i.e., HTML, HTTP, XML, TCP/IP) Integration and Collaboration Service-Oriented Architectures 8 The Ten Flatteners – Number 4 The New Age of Participation Community Generated Software Open-Sourcing Community Generated Answers Blogs and forums Self-organizing communities A collaborative revolution 9 The Ten Flatteners – Number 5 The New Age of New Participants Outsourcing Partially due to the Dot Com Boom, Bust Cycle Migrating business functions New players could now participate 10 The Ten Flatteners – Number 6 The New Age of Competition Offshoring Good for consumers, bad for some workers Lions and Gazelles China joins the WTO 11 The Ten Flatteners – Number 7 The New Age of Global Supply Chains Products are transformed from innovations to commodities faster and faster Good for consumers Drives for efficiencies 12 The Ten Flatteners – Number 8 The New Age of Supply Chain Management In-sourcing Big can act small Small can act big 13 The Ten Flatteners – Number 9 The New Age of Individual Information Supply Chains In-forming / Searching Knowledge available to everyone, all the time Individual supply chains of knowledge, entertainment, information 14 The Ten Flatteners – Number 10 Enablers of the New Age Computing and circuits get smaller File Sharing – Peer to Peer Calls over the Internet (VOIP, SKYPE) Video Conferencing Improved Computer Graphics Wireless technologies PDA, Mobile, Personal 15 SECTION 2 THE TRIPLE CONVERGENCE 16 How the World Became Flat The Triple Convergence 17 Convergence of Flatteners 18 Horizontalization Horizontal Collaboration and value-creation processes Productivity boost from the IT revolution not too distant 19 New Playing Field 20 The Other Side 21 How the World Became Flat The Great Sorting Out “Some sources of friction are worth protecting, even in the face of a global economy that threatens to flatten them” 22 The Great Sorting Out India versus Indiana Multiple Identity Disorder Death of the Salesman 23 SECTION 3 AMERICA AND THE FLAT WORLD 24 America and Free Trade “America as a whole will benefit more by sticking to the general principles of free trade, than by trying to erect walls” “Protectionism would be counterproductive, but a policy of free trade is not enough by itself” “To maintain their living standards, Americans will have to move vertically, not horizontally” 25 Untouchables & Old Middle The specialized Functions can never be outsourced, automated, or traded by electronic markets The localized Jobs must be done in a specific location The old middle Pressured by flatteners 26 The New Middle Collaborators Between companies, international workforces Synthesizers Integrating disparate fields Explainers Simplify complex topics Leveragers Combining technologies and people 27 The New Middle (cont.) Adapters Versatile, constantly learning Green Sustainable, renewable business Passionate personalizers Add flavor to vanilla tasks Localizers Adapt global businesses to local markets 28 The Right Stuff What is the right education to prepare for a flat world? Learn how to learn CQ + PQ > IQ Curiosity and passion Interacting with people Nurture the “right brain” 29 America – The Right Country Best market for taking new ideas and turning them into products and services Openness of society Political stability Quality of intellectual property protection Trust – essential in a world of collaboration A framework of rules and principles to govern personal and business lives 30 The Crisis “Post-World War II America reminds me of the classic wealthy family that by the third generation squanders its wealth” First generation: Second generation: hard working entrepreneurs holds it all together Third generation: fat, dumb, and lazy 31 The Crisis (cont.) Numbers gap Number of Americans trained in science and engineering declining Number of jobs requiring these skills increasing Furthermore, number of immigrants entering and staying in US with these skills declining 32 The Crisis (cont.) Education gap at the top Highest goal for Americans to be doctor, lawyer, banker – not engineer or scientist Takes hard work and perseverance Through uninteresting subject matter Where will innovation come from? 33 The Crisis (cont.) Ambition gap Poorly regarded jobs in America are coveted in India and China Leisure-time society Values upheld by parents of young children Education gap at the bottom School districts were organized by wealth Disparities in funding Poorer schools produce victims of flattening 34 The Crisis (cont.) Funding gap Government funding of research stagnant or being reduced Publications by Americans dropping steadily Infrastructure gap Broadband technologies in America are slow in speed and proliferation 35 This is Not a Test Flattening requires drastic reaction from country, similar to communism in 1960’s Leadership Individual responsibility Compassion Parenting 36 This is Not a Test (cont.) Leadership “Transformation of an enterprise begins with a sense of crisis or urgency” “No institution will go through fundamental change unless it believes it is in trouble and must do something different to survive” “We need politicians who are willing and able to explain and inspire” American politicians: lawyers, not scientists 37 This is Not a Test (cont.) Individual responsibility Manage own career, risks, and economic security Government and businesses Provide individuals opportunities to do that Flexibility: portable benefits, lifelong learning Upgrade entire workforce level of education Import and retain foreign talent 38 This is Not a Test (cont.) Compassion The balance of power between companies and individual communities is tilting in the favor of the companies Compassionate flatism Unemployment insurance for those displaced by flattening 39 This is Not a Test (cont.) Parenting “We need a new generation of parents to administer tough love” Put away the video games, television, Ipod, and get to work Parents must lead by example 40 SECTION 4 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND THE FLAT WORLD 41 The Virgin of Guadalupe Developing countries in the flat world: The Virgin of Guadalupe were being imported into Mexico from China. Plastic Ramadan lanterns in Egypt are also made in China 42 Introspection When developing countries start thinking about the challenge of flatism, the first thing they need to do is engage in some brutally honest introspection. 43 Reform Wholesale Broad macroeconomic reform Initiated by a small handful of leaders in countries (China, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, and India) Push counties into more export-oriented, freemarket strategies-base on privatization of state companies 44 Reform wholesale More open and competitive markets are the only sustainable vehicle for growing a nation out of poverty Decisions to open the Mexican economy "To get rich is glorious,“---Deng Xiaoping India's finance minister, Manmohan Singh, opened India's economy 45 Reform Wholesale As the world started to get smaller and flatter, reform wholesale was no longer sufficient to keep countries on a sustainable growth path A deeper process of reform was required-a process called reform retail 46 Reform Retail Every region of the world has its strengths and weaknesses, and all are in need of reform retail to some degree Reform retail requires a much wider base of public It involves looking at four key aspects of your society: Infrastructure Regulatory institutions Education Culture 47 Reform Retail Five-step checklist for reform retail: Simplify and deregulate wherever possible in competitive markets Focus on enhancing property rights Expand the use of the Internet for regulation fulfillment Reduce court involvement in business matters Make reform a continuous process 48 Culture Matters: Glocalization Two aspects of culture are particularly relevant in the flat world: To what degree is it open to foreign influences and ideas. How inward the culture is 49 Culture Matters: Glocalization Exclusivity is a dangerous thing. (Former Chinese emperor) Culture can change. It is a product of the context-geography, education level, leadership, and historical experience-of any society 50 The Intangible Things Why does one country's skyline change overnight and another's doesn't change over half a century?------intangible things China Thousands of miles away Burdened by overpopulation Few natural resources Burdensome debt legcy Mexico Right next door to America Free-trade agreement Valuable natural resource 51 The Intangible Things Qualities of intangible things: A society's ability and willingness to pull together and sacrifice for the sake of economic development The presence in a society of leaders with the vision to see what needs to be done in terms of development and the willingness to use power to push for change rather than to enrich themselves and preserve the status quo How much your culture prizes education 52 SECTION 5 COMPANIES AND THE FLAT WORLD 53 How Companies Cope If you want to grow and flourish in a flat world, you better learn how to change and align yourself with it Rules and Strategies 54 Rule #1:Reach for shovel and dig inside yourself. Competition is everywhere and the way is changing Facing challenge brought by competition your personality and creative flair 55 Rule #2: The small shall act big The key to being small and acting big is being quick to take advantage of all the new tools for collaboration to reach farther, faster, wider, and deeper 56 Rule #2: The small shall act big How could the small move to big so quickly? Software and industrial engineers Not stuck with any “legacy” system (web) 57 Rule #3: The big shall act small One way that big companies learn to flourish in the flat world is by learning how to act really small by enabling their customers to act really big 58 Rule #3: The big shall act small What the company should do is to create a digital buffet to serve consumers (“self-directed”) 59 Rule #4: The best companies are the best collaborators The next layer of value creation are becoming so complex that no single firm is going to be able to master them alone 60 Rule #4: The best companies are the best collaborators Combining more granular specialties to come up with valuable breakthrough Case: “Rolls-Royce” 61 Rule #5: Getting regular chest Xrays and selling the results X-ray your company and break down every component to identify “hot spots” Keeping core competency and outsourcing the things that no longer made sense to do itself 62 Rule #6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink They outsource to innovate faster and more cheaply in order to grow larger, gain market share, and hire more and different specialists – not to save money by firing more people 63 Rule #6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink Two things to be done Defending and extending core business and continue to take care of customers; Making a giant leap to offer customers what they are seeking for next. Using outsourcing is not defense but playing offense 64 SECTION 6 GEOPOLITICS AND THE FLAT WORLD 65 Geopolitics and the Flat World The Unflat World Too Sick Disempowered Too Frustrated Too Many Toyotas Globalization of the Local The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention Infosys Versus Al-Qaeda 66 The Unflat World The world isn’t flat! Middle class is a state of mind A flat world presupposes a similar state of mind 67 AIDS Pandemic Based on data from UNAIDS 68 Too Sick Who cares about the flat world when 50% have AIDS? The next grand challenge Pandemics in the flat world 69 Disempowered No access to the flat world Local governance Modern antiglobalism Private industry 70 Too Frustrated The flat world’s polarizing effect Humiliation breeds terrorism Intractable dilemma? Will it get better? What is the answer? 71 Too Many Toyotas What if the rest of the world becomes flat? Struggle over natural resources The US must lead embracing alternative energy 72 Globalization for the Local Globalization = Americanization? Globalizing in reverse It’s not all economic The dark side 73 The Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention The golden arches theory Global supply chains and geopolitical adventurism China v. Taiwan India v. Pakistan 74 Infosys Versus Al-Qaeda Non-state actors Virtual Caliphate understand the flat world as well as Dell and Infosys Suicide Supply Chains Nuclear threat to the flat world 75 CONCLUSION CONCLUSION 76 Conclusion The flattening of the world has presented us with new opportunities, new challenges, new partners but also new frustrations. 77 Conclusion “Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.” -----Will Rogers 78