The Age Of Em:
Work, Love & Life When
Robots Rule The Earth
Robin Hanson
Economics, George Mason University
Associate, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford
Blog: OvercomingBias.com
Recent US GDP Growth
World Product, 1950-2006
World Product
100,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
World Product, 1-2000
World Product (subsistence billions)
1,000.0
100.0
10.0
1.0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0.1
Year
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
World Product, 10K BC-2K AD
1,000.000
World Product (subsistence billions)
100.000
“Singularities”
10.000
1.000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
0.100
0.010
0.001
Year
2000
World Product, 2 Million BC+
1,000,000,000,000
World Product (subsistence hum ans)
100,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
100,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
-2000000
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
Year
0
500000
10
Bigger
Brains
Millions of Years
1
Relative Brain Size
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
0.1
0.01
0.001
10,000,000,000,000
Figure 1. World Product, Data vs. Models
Sum of Exp Model
2.0%
CES Combined Exp Model
1.7%
1,000,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
World Product Estimates
1,000,000,000
100,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
10,000,000 1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
Years before 2050
100
10
World Product
Hyperbolic Model
Error
9.6%
The Great Eras
?
Log
Growth
Rate
Log Years to 20X0
Growth Mode Statistics
Growth Doubling
DT
Size
Mode Time (DT) Doubles Doubles
Brains
34 Myr
16
Hunting
224 Kyr
7.3
~9
Farming
909 yr
7.9
7.6
Industry
~6 yr
7.2
>9.2
?
< 2 wk?
>7.2?
?
Sample mode transition
Next mode only lasts few years?
Ways To Make Smart Robots
1. Keep writing better software
– AI experts say: in 20yrs went 5-10% to human
– That says: will take 2-4 centuries to full AI
2. Super theory of intelligence (or learning)
– But likely doesn’t exist, as w/ bacteria, cities
– 1000s brain modules, use many in each task
3. Port software from where it already exists
Needed To Emulate Brains
1
Computers
(many, parallel)
2
3
Scan – fix, slice,
2D scan
Model each brain cell type
Depths of Emulation
1.
Recreate functions model
?
2.
Connected brain regions
now
3.
Averages of neurons, groups
now
4.
Spiking neural network
2019
5.
+ compartments, ion densities
2033
6.
+ metabolite, transmitter densities
2044
7.
+ protein, gene express densities
2048
8.
+ quaternary protein structure
2052
9.
+ internal cellular geometry
2063
10.
+ stochastic molecule positions
2111
11.
+ quantum interactions
?
at $1M hardware,
(for $1B, -11yrs)
Sandberg &
Bostrom,‘08,
Whole Brain
Emulation
Roadmap
What If
Cheap
Emulations?
Oxford, May 26
preorder now!
http://ageofem.com
Amazon Book Keyword %
“History” 19.5%
“Future” 0.9%
“Historical Fiction” 0.6%
“Science Fiction” 1.0%
Three Kinds of Futurism
1. Project Current Social Trend
2. Trend-Disrupting New Tech
3. Disrupt-Tech Social Result
Diminishing Returns
Insight
Effort
Keys Under Lamp Post?
Ring Of Science
M
P
CS
PC
E
SS
H
G
M
N
B
HS
I
M
BC
C
SS – Social Science
CS – Computer Science
P – Physics
E – Engineering
H – Humanities
PS – Psychology/Psychiatry
N – Brain Research
M – Mathematics
PC – Physical Chemistry
G – Earth Sciences
BC – Biochemistry
B – Biology
I – Infectious Disease
M – Medicine
HS – Health Services
Klavans & Boyack. 2009. “Toward a Consensus
Map of Science.” JASIST , 60(3), 455-476.
Ring Of Science
SS – Social Science
CS – Computer Science
P – Physics
E – Engineering
H – Humanities
PS – Psychology/Psychiatry
N – Brain Research
M
P
CS
PC
E
SS
H
G
PS
N
B
HS
I
MD
BC
C
M – Mathematics
PC – Physical Chemistry
G – Earth Sciences
BC – Biochemistry
B – Biology
I – Infectious Disease
MD – Medicine
HS – Health Services
My Method
Academic consensus
What is, not should be
Em robots, not humans
Next big era, not eras after
Post-transition equilibrium, not transition
Competitive, low-regulation (= supply & demand)
Mostly-opaque ems:
No merge, splice, partial, or big changes in psychology
Rest of Talk: Lots of Implications
Robot Implications
Travel
Immortality
Nature
Copies
Labor Supply & Demand
Price
wage1
Demand
for Labor
Supply of Human Workers
New
Demand
for Labor
Supply of Robots
wage3
wage2
Quantity
Four Ways To Grow
1. More Machines
2. More Humans
3. Better Machines
4. More Robots
Software Intensity
Human Wages
Log
Price
Hardware per person
Em Wages
Serial Hardware
Parallel Hardware
1950
2000
?
??
Time
Varieties of Lives
Time
Stems Have More Descendants
Specialized,
Complex
Time
Simple, General
Applies to:
• Cells
• Species
• Products
• Software
Humans Eclipsed
Humans Eclipsed
Wages < human subsistence
• Except direct demand, e.g., servants
But rich if hold non-wage assets
• Wealth grows about as fast as economy
• Rich on average, but variance depends on insurance
Less robot-human war if integrate, share law
• E.g., we don’t kill retirees, take their stuff
• E.g., there wasn’t farmer-industry war during switch
• But a lot will happen in a few human years
Ems Feel Human
HardWorking
More elite than:
• Olympic gold
• Nobel prize
• Billionaire
• Pulitzer
• Oscar
Smart, conscientious,
extravert, agreeable, gritty,
non-neurotic, work-oriented,
focused, sleepless, larks,
cooperative, peak-aged,
patient, married, religious
Smart
A Planet of People Like Me
Much Closer Team Copies
Humans
Ems
Ems Differ
Hunter/Gatherer Farmer/Herder
More: varied diet, varied
exercise, travel, tolerance,
homosexuality, sex talk,
sex promiscuity, leisure,
mind-challenging work,
sharing, envy, egalitarian,
divorce, genders equal,
play, music, dance, art,
stories, trust, honesty,
group discussion, lead by
consensus, save nature
More: dense, polite, clean,
order, stability, work hours,
kids, discipline of kids,
marriage, classes, rulers,
authority, slavery, war,
income inequality, ranking,
domination, brag, property,
money, trade, crime, honor,
shame, self-sacrifice, selfcontrol, explicit social rules,
moralizing gods
Fast
Slow
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Software races
Manage tiny fast systems
Fast bosses
Leisure, so back on job fast
Manage big slow systems
Remember a long history
Interact with humans
Cheap retirement
Fast
Slow
Human Life Plan
Time
Retire
Retire
Retire
Work
Work
Work
Train
Train
Train
Robot Life Plan
Retire
∞
Retire
∞
Retire
∞
Work
Work
Work
Time
Train
Fast Is High Class
A hierarchy of em
classes, each
16x faster,
costlier
16Mx: 2s
1Mx: yr in 30s
66,000x: yr in 8min
4100x: 0.3mm tall, yr in 2hrs
256x: 6mm tall, yr in 34hr
16x: 10cm tall, yr in 22day
1x: 1.7m tall, human speed; interact with
1/16 x: e.g., cheap retire, steer a tanker
older richer bosses,
premium location,
host meetings,
stable world,
win argue,
leisure
place
17M
Mega-ems
1M
1M Years
66K
Kilo-ems
4K
256
1K Years
16
Human Speed
1
1 Year
1/16
Milli-ems
1/256
1/4K
9 Hours
1/66K
Micro-ems
1/1M
30 Secs
1/17M
Nano-ems
1/270M
1/4B
30 ms
1/69B
Pico-ems
1/1T
30 ns
City Scaling
If double, per person:
−10% roads, cables
+21% patents
+12% crime
+34% traffic
+10% value
Big Dense Robot Cities!
Fractal Infrastructure
Adiabatic Reversible Computing
mint C1 = pt + qat -1 Þ pt = qat -1
R
Step
min RC2 = C1 log2 R + qR-1 Þ R = ln 2(q / 4a p)1/2
Fractal Cooling Pipes
Time
volume%µ ND 2 L-2
DP µ NLm1 or 2 D-4 or -5
N = 1+ (3 or 7)log 2 Lt -1
Fractal Struts
hollow: v µ f 2/3
fractal: v µ f exp[2 ln3ln f -1
t
x1 Talk: Earth+
Height: 1.7m
Career: 100 yr
x16 Talk: 940km
Height: 11cm
Career: 6 yr
Talking
Circles
x256 Talk:60km
Height: 7mm
Career: 5 mo
(billions fit in a skyscraper)
x4100 Talk: 4km
Height: 0.4mm
Career: 9 day
x16M Talk: 1m
Height: 100nm
Career: 3 min
Inequality Today
α > 1, most in small
2015
Firm – α ~ 1
Product – α < 1
City, States – α ~ 1
Family – α ~ 2
Wealth – α ~ 1.4
α = 1, all sizes same
α < 1, most in big
max holds 0.02%, ~$50B
small
big
1000
α>1
α>1
α>1
α~2
Em Inequality
α > 1, most in small
α ~ 1.4
0.02%
max holds 3%, ~$100T?
α~2
α < 1, most in big
big
2070?
Firm – α ~ 1
Product – α < 1
City-States – α < 1
most in <10?
Family – α < 1
most in ~300?
Wealth – α ~ 1 (live long)
α~1
α<1
α~1
α = 1, all sizes same
small
2015
Human Bosses
• Often fail to coordinate
4 per boss, 5 levels,
=> 341 Employees:
21 Higher bosses
64 Line bosses
256 Line workers
Fast Em Bosses
Let one ~x21 em do all 21 boss jobs
Coordinate better!
Boss cost to switch tasks
Temp fast to meet boss
Key Stats
• Start by ~2100, transition <5 yr, lasts <2yr
• Economy doubles every week to month
• Typical em speed: ~1000 times human
– From career ~100 yr, meet in city < 100km
– Speed range: 10-9 to 106 human speed
• Most ems in < ~300 clans, each of millions
• Billions of ems in a few super-cities
– Wages: ~½ hardware, ~½ energy/cooling,
– Volume: ~½ hardware, ~½ cooling pipes,
• No pain, hunger, grit,
disease, aged bodies
• Less death terror
• Vast fast population
• Huge intricate cities
• Great art, story, drugs
• Extreme ability, virtue
• More stable world
• Firm personal identity
• Subsistence wages,
long work hours
• Easy spur “ends”
• ≠ wealth, speed class
• Little nature, space
• More alienation
• More rulers, less vote
• Less mobility
• More religion, ritual
Friendship Problems
Which copy is my friend?
Sad if friends forget me
Sad when expect own end
Solutions:
Make, retire team as unit
Friends/lovers in team
Avoid multi-copies on
same team
Time
Accepting Your Place
You had offer of new copy
You understood new role
You accepted the offer
You own your place in
universe
Time
Is Forgetting “Death”?
Time
Rituals
1. Retire/going-away
2. Born/open/graduate
• Affirm/accept bonds/norms
• Archived ancestors attend
– get time/respect
– give legitimacy
– monitor for violations
Law & Governance
Rulers – minions, speedup, safe, meet all
Clan as unit – law, finance, politics, etc.
Copy law – Is it gift, loan, stock, or slave?
• Limits risk black markets
Mind theft – obsession to stop
• torture, interrogate, compete
• Solutions: open source, tie to big context,
clan castle, firm fortress
New Institutions
Disrupt, compete allow big change:
• Safes: “You would believe X if I said why”
• Combinatorial auctions: zoning, utilities
• Decision markets: firm, clan, city choices
• Contracts over law: crime, tort, property
Fast-Slow
Pair-Bond
24hr
Sleep
Work
Play
Sleep
Work
24hr
Work
Play
Work
Together!
Typical “Weekly” Activities
Example
Lots more work
Less sleep
In virtual reality, less
need eat, shop, meds,
clean body & home
No kid/elderly care
Socialize is functional
Need clean, eat rituals?
Hours Per Week
Us
Ems
Sleep
60.7
42
Personal Care
5.6
1
Socializing & Sports
7.1
6
TV
19.1
7
Other Leisure
10.1
10
Work
24.5
80
Housework
12.5
2.5
Eating
8.8
6
Shopping
5.3
1.5
Caring for others
5.0
1
School
3.3
3.8
Religion, civic
2.5
2.5
Other
2.5
2.5
Calls, email
2.2
2.2
168
168
Total