Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) / Fast Food Industry Study Jun 11 2015 Executive Summary Methodology • But, behaviors likely tell a different story: • 10-minute web-based survey of N=1500 US adults age 18 • Subway, despite being the favorite, is frequented less and over. often than McDonald’s • The survey was fielded between June 10 and June 11, • Burger King is the fourth most frequented, but the 2015. sixth most popular in terms of favorites. Key Findings • Health is confirmed as an important motivator for fast • The majority of people (64%) are not yet familiar with food diners: food-delivery apps like GrubHub or Caviar: • Water is the most desired beverage (even if behavior is • But 30% are familiar with GrubHub—the most of any not consistent) of the apps tested • Open-ended responses have a strong theme toward • Interestingly, there may be opportunities to charge healthy and fresh more than initially expected for food-delivery. • In unbranded promotional food image rankings, the Consumer expectations are that the fee will be ‘Less than 6g of fat’ Subway promotion was most between $2 and $5, probably more like $4 for delivery. preferred • And Subway, assuming it is perceived as the most healthy, was indicated by more people as the favorite restaurant Restaurants deemed favorites are not necessarily the most visited. Subway is the top favorite, with 19% saying it’s #1, but only 12% visit Subway on a weekly basis— compare this to 17% for McDonald’s. Similarly, Chick-fil-A is the third favorite on the list, but only 6% go there weekly.* (Not shown, 4% say they do not eat fast food and declined to pick a favorite.) Weekly McDonald's 17% Subway 12% 31% Burger King 9% 32% 7% 6% KFC 5% Arby's 3% Never 14% 30% 29% 34% 37% 23% 24% 21% 17% 35% 31% 21% % Favorite 25% 38% 9% Chick-fil-A Yearly 41% Taco Bell Wendy's Monthly 33% 19% 10% 25% 8% 25% 12% 14% 50% 39% 16% 32% 43% 6% 4% *Note, frequency does not account for distribution of stores. Some may be less frequented (e.g. Chick-fil-A) because there are fewer stores. Q1 - How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? Q2 - Which one of the following fast food restaurants, if any, is your favorite? Pair Comparisons Rankings: Promotional Food Images (Brands Not Shown) Sandwiches <6g of Fat (Subway) 37% Pretzel Bacon Cheeseburger (Wendy's) 51% 34% Quesalupa (Taco Bell) 31% Sirloin Third Pound Burger (McDonald's) 30% Chicken & Rice Bowls (KFC) 22% Meat sandwiches (Arby's) 21% Spicy Chicken Deluxe Sandwich (Chick-fil-a) 14% Chicken Fries (Burger King) 12% Ranked 1, 2 12% 52% 15% 51% 18% 45% 25% 50% 28% 58% 53% 41% Ranked 3, 4, 5, 6 21% 33% 47% Subway promotion <6g of fat is most appealing Using the paired comparisons exercise to identify the rank order of the images, 37% had the Subway food image ranked in the top 2 of 8. Wendy’s, while not a top 3 restaurant, had the second most appealing promotional food image with 34% ranking highly the Pretzel Bacon Cheeseburger. Ranked 7, 8 Q4 - In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. *See appendix for specific ads Perfection is defined by “service” and “freshness” When asked to describe the perfect fast food experience, the two major themes had to do with: Freshness, which could refer to healthy ingredients or being hot; and Service, which is a function of the speed of service, friendliness of the staff, and cleanliness of the store. Many people also mentioned low price. Q5 - How would you describe a perfect fast food dining experience? Perceptual mapping Multidimensional scale modeling was used to produce the 2D market visualization on the right. 1. It shows that Food Healthiness, Convenience / location and Prices most significantly shaped the market perception, compared to other tested attributes. Competitive Topography 1. Subway received higher average ratings than the rest of the tested brands 2. Subway was closely associated with food healthiness and convenience/location attributes 3. McDonald’s was highly rated and closely associated with convenience/location and good prices. Competitive Topography 1. Overall Convenience/ location, Cleanliness / appearance, Service Quality / Speed, along with the Food Quality / taste received highest ratings 2. Food healthiness was rated comparatively low in the Fast Food McDonald’s 1. Received highest ratings by Convenience / Location, did pretty good on Prices and had lowest scores for Food healthiness, comparing to other attributes. Subway 1. While Subway received high ratings on most attributes, it was rated quite low on Prices and Menu options variety. Chick-Fil-A 1. Chick-Fil-A was rated highly by Cleanliness and appearance, as well as the Food quality / taste and Service quality & speed. It was also somewhat associated with Food healthiness while received lower rating for Convenience of locations MaxDiff Exercise Methodology • MaxDiff is an approach for obtaining importance scores for multiple items. It is used as an alternative to a standard ranking exercise when there are too many items to be easily ranked. The MaxDiff exercise consists of multiple trials; in each trial, the respondent is presented with a subset of the total items to be evaluated, and asked to indicate the most and least important items in that subset. Respondents see multiple such trials, and the combinations of items shown is carefully designed with the goal that each is shown an equal number of times and pairs of items are shown an equal number of times. Scoring • Based on each respondent’s choices across the various trials, aggregate-level utility or importance scores are derived for each attribute. Scores range from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating greater importance in the overall sample. MaxDiff Scoring: Preference of Beverage Water 8.98 Soda 8.87 Iced tea 8.73 Lemonade 8.49 Milkshakes 8.22 Smoothies 7.56 Fruit/vegetable juice 7.15 Root beer 6.23 Specialty coffee drinks 5.71 Diet soda 5.6 Hot tea Beer The MaxDiff scoring shows that water is the most preferred beverage, but barely edges out soda. 6.83 Brewed coffee Energy drinks Water is preferred over soda 4.87 There is a sharp drop off after hot tea, where energy drinks and alcoholic beverages were the least preferred types. 3.47 3.27 Wine 3.02 Mixed alcoholic drinks 2.99 Q7 - Let's think about beverages you may be interested in ordering at fast food restaurants. Please rank the following groups of drinks with your most preferred at the top and your least preferred at the bottom. Two-thirds remain unfamiliar with food-delivery apps Of those that have heard of a food-delivery app, GrubHub is the most well-known—83% of those that know any app know GrubHub. 64% 30% 9% GrubHub Eat24 5% 3% 2% Seamless Caviar Other Q8 - Which of the following food-delivery apps are you familiar with? None of the above Price Test Methodology: Van Westendorp The price analysis on the next slide offers insights into pricing expectations as a first look at pricing strategies. It is based upon 4 simple questions in the survey. Respondents are asked to indicate the prices at which the product/service would be (1) considered a bargain, (2) so cheap that quality would be questioned, (3) starting to get expensive, and (4) so expensive that they wouldn’t consider purchasing. Plotting the answers to these questions allows for interpretation of some key intersections: • The Optimal Price point is where an equal number of people regard the price as being too cheap as do too expensive – this price is the recommended price point for a competitive offering. • The Indifference Price point is similar to the Optimal, but where Cheap and Expensive intersect – this price is regarded as the price that the market leader would have in a competitive environment. • The Marginally Too Cheap/Expensive price points mark the acceptable price range. People expect to pay more than you’d think for food delivery The expected price from our analysts prior to the survey was that people would pay $3 for food delivery, but the Van Westendorp meter suggests $4 as the optimal price point. While we don’t recommend setting the price at $4 without further research, this test does suggest that the acceptable price could even be as high as $5 for the right offering. Price Sensitivity Meter Values (1500 resp.) results Acceptable range $2 - $5 Optimal price point $4 Your price guess was $3 Marginally too cheap $2 Marginally too expensive $5 Indifference point $3.99 9: If you could order delivery of your favorite fast food from a food delivery app, at which point would you consider the delivery fee to be... SAMPLE DEMOGRAPHICS Ethnicity Gender White American 72% African-American 10% Hispanic/Latino-American Male 49% 8% Asian-American Female 51% Multi-racial 5% 2% Indian-American 1% Native American 1% Other 2% Age Range Generation 21% 21% 18% 18% 12% 10% 0% Under 18 Sample Size = 1500 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older 50+ (Baby Boomers & Older) 42% 18-34 (Millennials) 31% 35-49 (Gen X) 27% Region Household Income 36% $0 - $25,000 23% $25,000 - $50,000 30% 25% $50,000 - $75,000 23% 20% 19% $75,000 - $100,000 13% $100,000 - $200,000 $200,000 - $500,000 Northeast Midwest South West >$500,000 9% 1% 0% Marital Status Married Children in HH 48% 5+ children Single 29% 4 children Divorced Living with a significant other 19% 3% 1 child It's complicated 9% 7% 2 children Engaged 4% 9% 3 children Widowed 2% 20% 2% 1% no children 46% Education Professional degree Grad school degree Employment Status 6% Full time 44% 9% Part Time 4yr degree 16% 27% Retired 2yr degree 11% Student Some college No college 17% 6% 31% 17% Unemployed 17% APPENDIX: ADS SHOWN IN PAIRED COMPARISON RANKINGS Fit and stylish Christian women who prioritize entertainment, value, convenience, and connecting with those around them – always striving to be their best possible selves. Demographics • Females • 4-year degree Media usage • Listens to Christian radio, soft rock/pop music • Watches TV 1-4 hours/day • Redbox kiosk user • Goes to movie theaters • Plays games on cell phone Health-minded • Runner • Vitamin consumer Shopper • Attends sale events • Sam’s Club, Target • Shoe shopper, all kinds Tech savvy • iPad owner • On Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter • Online banking Psychographics • Christian • Optimistic • Volunteer Photo credit: “Drinking (Chick Fil A soda) and driving” by m01229, used under CC BY 2.0 / cropped from original Chick-fil-A Cultured, health-minded, easygoing individuals who still rely on tried-and-true sources of information and entertainment. Media consumption • Watches PBS, CNN Headline News • Listens to classical music • Reads business/finance and classified sections in newspaper • Reads health and fitness publications Other entertainment • Running/track event spectator Psychographics • Interested in their health • Not bossy • Not possessive Other • A morning person • Gardening hobbyist, garden at residence • Recycles glass • Land line phone at home Photo credit: “Ali at Oregon Zoo 9” by Parker Knight, used under CC BY 2.0 / cropped from original Subway Gamers who love zesty flavors, convenience, and value. Life is an adventure, and they’re the heroes! Media consumption • PlayStation owner Other dining • Mexican restaurant customer • Chili and taco products consumer • Pepsi consumer • Frozen waffles/pancakes/pizza consumer Employment • On active military duty • Homemakers/unemployed Other shopping • Walmart shopper (at least monthly) • Zillow service user • Dress shirt consumer Psychographics • Fearless • Extraordinary • Not demanding or needy Photo credit: “Taco Bell” by Antonio Morales García, used under CC BY-SA 2.0 / cropped from original Taco Bell Fast Food Industry Survey Order details: Responses: 1500/1500 Ordered: June 10 2015 Completed: June 11 2015 [See how survey takers saw this survey] Target Market: Country: United States Language: English Gender: Males and Females Age Range: 18 - 65+ years old Income: Any Ethnicity/Race: Any Education: Any Employment: Any Career: Any Relationship: Any Parental status: Any Location: Any 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 1600 1400 215 251 372 440 382 476 1200 648 378 526 1000 549 800 456 509 581 312 600 400 319 300 257 261 178 81 McDonald's 213 82 27 Wendy's 210 99 33 Taco Bell 491 349 263 256 200 746 217 92 37 Burger King 133 246 175 116 53 28 KFC 139 204 51 105 37 15 Subway Arby's 65 25 Chick-fil-A Never Several times a year About once a month Several times a month Once or twice a week 3 or more times a week 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 1: McDonald's 400 378 350 300 300 Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 5.4% (81) A2: Once or twice a week 11.8% (178) A3: Several times a month 20.0% (300) A4: About once a month 20.8% (312) A5: Several times a year 25.2% (378) A6: Never 16.7% (251) 312 251 250 200 178 150 100 Answer 81 50 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 2: Wendy's 600 549 500 400 372 300 257 213 200 82 100 27 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never Answer Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 1.8% (27) A2: Once or twice a week 5.4% (82) A3: Several times a month 14.2% (213) A4: About once a month 17.1% (257) A5: Several times a year 36.6% (549) A6: Never 24.8% (372) 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? Answer Resp. (1499) A1: 3 or more times a week 2.2% (33) A2: Once or twice a week 6.6% (99) A3: Several times a month 14.0% (210) A4: About once a month 17.4% (261) 350 A5: Several times a year 30.4% (456) 300 A6: Never 29.3% (440) 3: Taco Bell 500 456 450 440 400 261 250 210 200 150 99 100 50 33 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 4: Burger King 600 509 500 382 400 300 263 217 200 92 100 37 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never Answer Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 2.4% (37) A2: Once or twice a week 6.1% (92) A3: Several times a month 14.4% (217) A4: About once a month 17.5% (263) A5: Several times a year 33.9% (509) A6: Never 25.4% (382) 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 5: Subway 600 526 500 400 319 300 256 215 200 133 100 51 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never Answer Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 3.4% (51) A2: Once or twice a week 8.8% (133) A3: Several times a month 17.0% (256) A4: About once a month 21.2% (319) A5: Several times a year 35.0% (526) A6: Never 14.3% (215) 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 6: Arby's 700 Answer Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 1.0% (15) A2: Once or twice a week 2.4% (37) A3: Several times a month 7.0% (105) A4: About once a month 13.6% (204) A5: Several times a year 32.7% (491) A6: Never 43.2% (648) 648 600 491 500 400 300 204 200 105 100 15 37 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 7: KFC 700 581 600 500 476 400 300 246 200 116 100 28 53 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never Answer Resp. (1500) A1: 3 or more times a week 1.8% (28) A2: Once or twice a week 3.5% (53) A3: Several times a month 7.7% (116) A4: About once a month 16.4% (246) A5: Several times a year 38.7% (581) A6: Never 31.7% (476) 1: How often do you eat at each of the following restaurants? 8: Chick-fil-A 800 746 700 600 500 400 349 300 200 175 139 100 65 25 0 3 or more times Once or twice a Several times a About once a Several times a a week week month month year Never Answer Resp. (1499) A1: 3 or more times a week 1.6% (25) A2: Once or twice a week 4.3% (65) A3: Several times a month 9.2% (139) A4: About once a month 11.6% (175) A5: Several times a year 23.2% (349) A6: Never 49.7% (746) 2: Which one of the following fast food restaurants, if any, is your favorite? 300 250 285 239 211 200 187 154 150 115 93 100 67 50 85 64 Answer Resp. (1500) A1: McDonald's 15.9% (239) A2: Wendy's 12.4% (187) A3: Taco Bell 10.2% (154) A4: Burger King 7.6% (115) A5: Subway 19.0% (285) A6: Arby's 4.4% (67) A7: KFC 6.2% (93) A8: Chick-fil-A 14.0% (211) A9: Other (please tell us) 5.6% (85) A10: None of the above, I don't eat fast food 4.2% (64) 0 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 120 100 5.5 13.9 80 11.2 9 5.8 6.4 7.4 11 29 12 10.8 12.6 9.1 60 12 11.3 13.6 12.1 12.3 20 12.9 10.5 16.5 McDonald's 17 14.6 Wendy's Taco Bell 15.4 12.8 13.8 13.6 12.8 13.9 15.7 14.4 17 15 13.1 16 11 12.4 11.5 8.2 6.8 16.9 14.6 13.8 16.3 16.4 12.7 12.8 13.8 13.7 12.9 17.8 12.2 14.2 40 12.5 8 6.4 5.5 21.1 Burger King Subway 12.7 10.9 8 8.8 10.4 Arby's KFC 5.7 Chick-fil-A Eighth Seventh Sixth Fifth Fourth Third Second First 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 1: McDonald's 300 254 250 209 194 200 185 182 170 150 169 137 100 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 16.9% (254) A2: Second 12.9% (194) A3: Third 12.3% (185) A4: Fourth 12.1% (182) A5: Fifth 11.3% (170) A6: Sixth 9.1% (137) A7: Seventh 11.2% (169) A8: Eighth 13.9% (209) 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 2: Wendy's 300 255 250 248 213 205 200 181 180 150 135 100 83 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 17.0% (255) A2: Second 16.5% (248) A3: Third 14.2% (213) A4: Fourth 13.6% (205) A5: Fifth 12.0% (181) A6: Sixth 12.0% (180) A7: Seventh 9.0% (135) A8: Eighth 5.5% (83) 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 3: Taco Bell 300 245 250 216 208 207 200 189 165 158 150 112 100 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 14.4% (216) A2: Second 16.3% (245) A3: Third 13.8% (208) A4: Fourth 13.8% (207) A5: Fifth 10.5% (158) A6: Sixth 12.6% (189) A7: Seventh 11.0% (165) A8: Eighth 7.4% (112) 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 4: Burger King 500 450 435 400 350 Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 5.5% (83) A2: Second 6.4% (96) A3: Third 6.8% (103) A4: Fourth 8.2% (124) A5: Fifth 13.9% (209) A6: Sixth 12.2% (183) A7: Seventh 17.8% (267) A8: Eighth 29.0% (435) 300 267 250 209 200 183 150 100 124 83 96 103 Second Third 50 0 First Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 5: Subway 350 317 300 250 236 220 192 200 188 163 150 96 100 88 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 21.1% (317) A2: Second 15.7% (236) A3: Third 14.6% (220) A4: Fourth 12.8% (192) A5: Fifth 12.5% (188) A6: Sixth 10.8% (163) A7: Seventh 6.4% (96) A8: Eighth 5.8% (88) 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 6: Arby's 300 250 241 226 207 200 150 194 192 187 133 120 100 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 8.8% (133) A2: Second 12.4% (187) A3: Third 16.0% (241) A4: Fourth 13.8% (207) A5: Fifth 12.8% (192) A6: Sixth 15.0% (226) A7: Seventh 12.9% (194) A8: Eighth 8.0% (120) 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 7: KFC 250 219 206 200 192 173 197 191 166 156 Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 10.4% (156) A2: Second 11.5% (173) A3: Third 11.0% (166) A4: Fourth 12.8% (192) A5: Fifth 13.1% (197) A6: Sixth 12.7% (191) A7: Seventh 14.6% (219) A8: Eighth 13.7% (206) 150 100 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth 4: In the following pairs of ad images, please choose the one that looks more appealing to you. 8: Chick-fil-A 300 255 250 247 231 205 200 191 164 150 121 100 86 50 0 First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Answer Resp. (1500) A1: First 5.7% (86) A2: Second 8.0% (121) A3: Third 10.9% (164) A4: Fourth 12.7% (191) A5: Fifth 13.6% (205) A6: Sixth 15.4% (231) A7: Seventh 17.0% (255) A8: Eighth 16.4% (247) 5: How would you describe a perfect fast food dining experience? 7: Let's think about beverages you may be interested in ordering at fast food restaurants. Please rank the following groups of drinks with your most preferred at the top and your least preferred at the bottom. Water Answer 8.98 Soda (1500) 8.87 Iced tea 8.73 Lemonade 8.49 Milkshakes 8.22 Smoothies 7.56 Fruit/vegetable juice 7.15 Root beer 6.83 Brewed coffee 6.23 Specialty coffee drinks Avr Prob. A7:Water 8.98% A1:Soda 8.87% A10:Iced tea 8.73% A4:Lemonade 8.49% A12:Milkshakes 8.22% A11:Smoothies 7.56% A5:Fruit/vegetable juice 7.15% A6:Root beer 6.83% A3:Brewed coffee 6.23% A16:Specialty coffee drinks 5.71% A2:Diet soda 5.6% A9:Hot tea 4.87% 5.71 Diet soda 5.6 Hot tea 4.87 Energy drinks 3.47 Beer 3.27 Wine 3.02 A8:Energy drinks 3.47% Mixed alcoholic drinks 2.99 A13:Beer 3.27% A14:Wine 3.02% A15:Mixed alcoholic drinks 2.99% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8: Which of the following food-delivery apps are you familiar with? 1200 1000 Answer Resp. (1500) A1: GrubHub 30.3% (455) A2: Seamless 5.2% (79) A3: Caviar 3.2% (49) A4: Eat24 8.6% (129) A5: Other 2.0% (31) A6: None of the above 63.6% (955) 955 800 600 455 400 200 129 79 49 31 0 GrubHub Seamless Caviar Eat24 Other None of the above