Lecture 1: Valuation Models for a
MNC and a Global Investor
Combined with Observations
on Exchange Rate Impacts
Where is this International
Financial Center?
Hong Kong as a Financial Center

After being ceded by China to the British (as a result of the Opium Wars) under the Treaty of Nanking in 1842, the
colony of Hong Kong rapidly became a regional center for financial and commercial services with China and South Asia.
During the Korean War, the U.N. imposed an embargo on mainland China (for its support of North Korea) and as a
result many “industrialist moved from the mainland to Hong Kong and set up light industry export companies. During
this period, Hong Kong grew as a shipping and textile export center.

However, China's open-door policy in 1978 was the year that marked the new era of Hong Kong and its re-birth as a
major economic and financial center. As manufacturing moved out of Hong Kong to mainland China, it was replaced by
services, and Hong Kong GDP boomed as trade and investment links with China exploded. Global financial services
also flourished because of Hong Kong’s British-style legal system and the fact that English is spoken fluently both of
which supported Hong Kong’s financial networks with London, New York and other leading global cities. In additional,
Hong Kong has had long existing stock market (since 1891).

Today it is an important market for IPO (second only to New York last year) and funds management. Today Hong Kong
is the world’s sixth largest foreign exchange trading center, with 4.7% of the world’s total trades (or $238 billion per day).
71 of the largest 100 banks in the world have an operation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is the world's 9th largest
international banking center in terms of the volume of external transactions, and the second largest in Asia after Japan.
The banking sector plays a vital role in establishing Hong Kong as a major loan syndication center in the region. The
Hong Kong Stock Exchange is Asia's third largest stock exchange in terms of market capitalization behind the Tokyo
Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange and fifth largest in the world. As of 31 Dec 2010, the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange had 1,413 listed companies with a combined market capitalization of $2.7 trillion.

Hong Kong was hit hard by the Asian Financial Crisis that struck the region in mid-1997, just at the time of the handover
of the colony back to Chinese administrative control. The crisis prompted a collapse in share prices and the property
market. However, unlike most Asian countries, Hong Kong (as well as mainland China) maintained their currencies’
exchange rates with the U.S. dollar rather than devaluing.
Objective of Lecture 1


In order to understand and appreciate the
international forces which multinational firms
and global investors face, we need to
develop valuation models for global
companies and investors.
The models which we will develop are
patterned after the Anglo-Saxon model of
corporate behavior and investment
valuations.
Valuation Concepts

Anglo-Saxon Approach:

Firm Evaluation: Consider the value of the firm
and corporate behavior in terms of (maximizing)
the market value of the firm for shareholders.


Capital budgeting techniques evaluate projects and
corporate investments on the basis of present value of
their cash flows.
Financial Asset Evaluation: Consider the present
value of the anticipated future income stream from
a particular financial asset.
Anglo-Saxon Valuation Model for
Corporation: Present Value of Future
Cash Flow
 E CF$,t 
V  
t 
t 1  1  k  
n




Where E(CF$,t) represents expected cash flows to be
received at the end of period t,
N represents the number of periods into the future in
which cash flows are received, and
K represents the required rate of return by investors.
Note: Changes in V occur because of changes in
E(CF$,t) and/or changes in K
6
Measuring the International Cash
Flows for a U.S. Based MNC
E C F$ ,t  


 E C F   E S 
m
j 1
j ,t
j ,t
Where CFj,t represents the amount of cash flow
denominated in a particular foreign currency j at the
end of period t,
Where Sj,t represents the exchange rate at which the
foreign currency can be converted into U.S. dollars at
the end of period t.

Measured in U.S. dollars per unit of the foreign currency.
7
Changes in the Value of a MNC
V changes result from:
MNC Valuation
Model


 E CF j ,t xE ( Sj , t ) 
V 

t
1  k  
t 1 
n
(1) Changes in foreign market conditions: Will
impact on foreign currency earnings and thus on
foreign currency cash flows (CF).
(2) Changes in political environment and
political risk (policy of foreign government
towards MNC): Will impact on foreign currency
earnings and thus on foreign currency cash
flows (CF).
(3) Changes in the MNC’s cost of capital, i.e.,
the required return (k).
(4) Changes in the exchange rate resulting
from exposure to exchange rate risk (S); noting
that:
–
Stronger foreign currency will increase
U.S. dollar equivalent of cash flows.
–
Weaker foreign currency will decrease
U.S. dollar equivalent of cash flows.
Exchange Rate Impacts on
Operating Profits
Japanese Multinationals


Sony, which generates
more than 70 percent of
revenue outside of Japan,
says it loses about 2 billion
yen of annual operating
profit for each yen gain
against the U.S. currency.
Toyota notes that every
one-yen gain in the
Japanese currency against
the dollar reduces Toyota’s
annual operating profit by
30 billion yen.
Yen in 2011
Valuation Models for Financial
Assets

Bonds: Present value of:

Coupon payments + Par Value (face or maturity value)



Stocks: Present value of:


In U.S., par value = $1,000
Discount rate (k) is adjusted for opportunity cost and risk
adjustments.
Future cash flow (Dividends, earnings)
Foreign currency denominated financial assets:
Valuation model adjustment needs to be made
for changes in exchange rates.
Do Exchange Rates Affect Equity
Returns?
Returns for an investor in the United States investing foreign stock
market
Year
2010
Japan
Australia
Switzerland
Canada
Italy
Germany
United Kingdom
South Africa
Hong Kong
Local Currency Return
Memo:
United States (DJIA)
Euro-zone
Return in U.S. Dollars
- 1.6%
- 1.3%
- 0.4%
- 0.4%
- 11.6%
+16.5%
+11.7%
+15.7%
+ 8.6%
+10.0%
+10.0%
+ 6.6%
+20.1%
-19.0%
+ 6.7%
+ 6.9%
+26.6%
+ 8.4%
+12.4%
- 0.9%
+12.4%
- 9.2%
Exchange Rates in 2010
JPY (Equity Market:
-LC1.6%; +USD10.0%)
GBP (Equity Market:
+LC11.7%; +USD6.9%)
Exchange Rates in 2010
EUR (Equity Market:
-LC0.9%; -USD9.2%)
HKD (Equity Market:
+LC8.6%; +USD8.4%)
Exchange Rate Adjusted Equity
Returns in 2011
Period
Dec 31, 2010 –
Aug 10, 2011
Local Currency Return
Return in U.S. Dollars
Japan
United Kingdom
Greece
Switzerland
Turkey
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
-11.6%
-15.1%
-30.5%
-25.5%
-23.8%
+ 4.3%
- 8.8%
- 6.3%
-12.5%
-26.6%
- 4.6%
-33.9%
+10.3%
- 8.8%
Look over the above data, and make sure you can explain what happened to
produce the returns in U.S. dollar as noted.
Do Exchange Rates Affect Bond
Returns?
Exchange Rate Adjusted Bond
Exchange Rate Adjusted
Returns
Returns on Government
Return on German Bonds,
1994 - 1998
Year
Local Market
% Change
USD Return
Return*
in Local Currency**
1994
-1.8%
11.8%
10.0%
1995
16.3%
9.6%
25.9%
1996
7.3%
-7.7%
-0.4%
1997
6.2%
-15.2%
-9.0%
1998
10.9%
8.9%
19.8%
1999
-2.1%
-14.3%
-16.4%
* = Interest (coupon payment) +/- Change in market price
**1994 - 1998: % change in Deutschmark; 1999 % change in Euro
Bonds, 2005