Transfer of Regional NWP Capabilities to
Developing Countries
Detlev Majewski, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany
e-mail: detlev.majewski@dwd.de
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
Stepwise introduction of regional NWP
Defined at the WMO Workshops in Pretoria (2002) and Casablanca (2005):
1.
Acquiring and using existing NWP grid point products;
2.
Acquiring and running a local NWP model without data analysis, but with
verification;
3.
Running a local model, without data analysis, fine tuning the system for
the local region; with statistical adaptation;
4.
Running a local model with local analysis of data.
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
Main components of a regional forecasting system
and corresponding data flow
Observations
atmosph. / surface
Topographical
data
Verification
Model diagnosis
Lateral boundary
conditions
Data assimilation
Regional NWP
model
DMO
MOS
Statistics
Graphical
applications
Environmental
predictions
Other
application models
Agro-meteorological models
Meteorologists (public and private)
Customers (public and private)
13 Febuary 2008
Sea wave
prediction
GEO CBC Hannover
Key issues for NWP capacity building
Defined at the WMO Workshops in Pretoria (2002) and Casablanca (2005)
1.
Hardware (computer, internet access)
2.
Software (operating system, compilers, regional NWP model, graphics)
3.
Data (initial and lateral boundary data files; local observations)
4.
Manpower (computer skills (Unix, Fortran, Web), meteorologist)
5.
Training of NWP staff and forecasters
6.
Modernization of complete forecasting process
7.
Sustainability (involve universities, form regional co-operations)
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
GME data as lateral boundary data of HRM
The global model GME covers the Earth with
an icosahedral-hexagonal grid;
grid spacing: 40 km and 40 layers.
368642 grid points / layer
Grid cell area of GME: 1384 km2
To cover a given HRM domain, only a small
part of GME grid points is needed.
HRM
If the HRM domain is 3000 x 3000 km2, the
number of GME grid points is given by 3000 x
3000 / 1384 = 6500 only!
Only these GME grid points are being
transferred to the National Weather Service
via the internet for running HRM.
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
HRM at KMD, Kenya
Grid spacing: 0.25° ~ 28 km
26°E - 50°E
12°S - 12°N
97x97 grid points, 40 layers
Linux PC server
1 processor Intel P4
1 GB RAM
2 scientists from 2001 until 2005.
3 scientists since 2006.
http://www.meteo.go.ke/nwp/
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
Lessons learned, next steps
• Introduce NWP stepwise, taking the local knowledge into
account.
• Build up a team of dedicated scientists, encourage networking
with the HRM community worldwide, e.g. via
http://groups.google.de/group/hrm_help.
• Aim for early “showpieces” to convince local users.
• Try to streamline the total forecasting process, not only the
NWP part; involve the local forecasters quite early, e.g. in the
definition of forecast products and graphics.
• Start objective verification of the NWP model against local
observations as soon as possible.
• Try to involve local universities by offering the NWP model,
data for case studies and computer resources.
• Overall goal: Achieve a sustainable improvement of the
forecasting process at the service.
• Regional NWP Training in Botswana: 3 – 9 April 08
• Next Regional NWP Training Workshop at DWD: 14 - 25 July 08
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
Building blocks for regional NWP
• Topographical data of region at ~ 1 km x 1 km resolution
• Regional NWP model (e.g. ALADIN, HRM, MM5/WRF/ETA, RAMS)
• Initial and lateral boundary data from global NWP model (e.g.
GFS, GME, JMA, ECMWF)
• Reliable and reasonable fast data connection between global
centre and national weather service running the regional model
• Computer system (Linux PC cluster) to run regional model
• Graphical display of forecasts (e.g. GrADS, DIANA: Open Source
Visualization of the Norwegian Met. Service); Web pages
• Verification package (e.g. ORMVERIF)
• Regional NWP training by advanced centres (e.g. Météo France,
DWD, KMA, NCEP, UKMO, SAWS, ACMAD, WMO)
• Training of computer skills (Linux, Fortran, html)
• Training of local forecasters in model interpretation
13 Febuary 2008
GEO CBC Hannover
Questions?
HRM is used at:
Any questions?
Bosnia, Botswana,
Brazil (INMET, DHN),
Bulgaria,
China (Guangdong),
India (SPL), Israel, Italy,
Jordan, Kenya, Libya,
Malawi, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan,
Philippines, Romania,
Senegal, Spain, Tanzania,
United Arab Emirates and
Vietnam.
13 Febuary
2008
Graphics
CBC Hannover
by B. RitterGEO
(DWD)
http://www.met.gov.om/hrm/