RTE Cereal Consumption Trends in
the 90s
What Sells Cereals and Where?
By Jim Eales
Goal
• To examine the changes in cereal sales across
regions of the US in the 90s by the nutritional
content of the cereals.
Grocery Marketing Data 1990
• Sales Area Marketing, Inc (SAMI), a former producttracking services division of Arbitron.
• Warehouse withdrawals
• 54 Markets made up of US counties
• Covers 85% of US branded grocery sales
• Indices measuring sales per household for 160 RTE
Cereals
Grocery Marketing Data 1999
• Nielsen Homescan data from 7195 households 6068
of which are in Nielsen “Scantrack” Markets.
• Counties making up each Nielsen Scantrack Market
are given in Market Scope. Fortunately, our library
had the 1999 edition.
• Each household’s purchases from various product
“modules” including RTE Cereal can be used to
calculate sales per household indices for each market.
Methods
• Determined cereals which I could identify as
common to both sets of data.
• Turned out to be 77 cereals, that I could
identify. There are probably others.
Problem
• Changes in the sales indexes from 1990 to
1999 were too big to be believed.
• Some of the Scantrack markets have only as
little as 5 households in the Homescan sample.
Solution
• I aggregated SAMI and Nielsen markets up to
8 super regions (California, West, E North
Central, W. North Central, Mid South, Deep
South, Northeast, and New York).
• Minimum number of Nielsen households is
now about 350 and the average is 700.
Map Color Schemes
• I use the spectrum of colors for each map
starting at least violet through indigo, blue,
green, light green, yellow, orange, and red.
• For example…
• I then ranked cereals by ratings or nutrient
content and identified the top (or bottom) 10
cereals.
• I calculated an index of sales per household for
these 10 cereals for SAMI and for Nielsen.
• I then took the ratio (Nielsen/SAMI).
• If the ratio is less (greater) than one for a
region then sales per household declined
(increased) between 1990 and 1999.
Consumer Reports
• Rated cereals based on nutrition (October,
1986)
• I used the information on DASL to get ratings.
• Ratings are weighted averages of: protein, fat,
fiber, sugar, and sodium.
Highest Rated Cereals
Rating
Special K
50.1
Oat Bran
50.5
Grape Nuts
51.3
Nutri Grain
54.7
Heath Valley
55.4
Puffed Rice
60.9
Uncle Sam
62.2
Puffed Wheat
68.9
All Bran
69.8
Fiber One
87.9
Lowest Rated Cereals
Rating
Cap'n Crunch
20.2
Cap'n Crunch Christmas
20.2
Cap'n Crunch with Crunch Berries
20.7
Frankenberry
21.1
Cinnamon Toast
21.2
Boo Berry
21.3
Count Chocula
23.0
Cap'n Crunch Peanut Butter
23.1
Fruity Pebbles
23.2
Trix
23.8
Nutrients
Low Fat Cereals
Fat (g)
Health Valley
Cornflakes
0
0.1
Post Toasties
0.1
Sun Flakes
0.1
Frosted Flakes
0.15
Corn Pops
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
0.22
0.27
Quaker Puffed Rice
0.27
Corn Chex
0.27
Double Chex
0.27
Low Sodium Cereals
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat
Sodium (mg)
1.5
1.5
Quaker Puffed Rice
Quaker Puffed Wheat
Health Valley
1.5
1.5
49
Uncle Sam
All Bran
Cracklin Oat Bran
Quaker Oat Bran
62
77
86
109
Corn Pops
116
High Fiber Cereals
Fiber One
Fiber (g)
14 (58%)
All Bran
10
Uncle Sam
6
Bran Flakes
5
Crunchy Bran
5
Skinner Raisin Bran
4
Post Raisin Bran
4
Kelloggs Raisin Bran
4
Multi Bran Chex
4
Cracklin Oat Bran
4
Low Sugar Cereals
Sugar (g)
Fiber One
0
Nutri Grain
0
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice
0
Quaker Puffed Rice
0
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat
0.4
Quaker Puffed Wheat
0.4
Uncle Sam
0.5
Malt-O-Meal Toasty Os
1.0
Cheerios
1.3
Cornflakes
2.2
High Sugar Cereals
Sugar (g)
Apple Jacks
15
Froot Loops
14
Frankenberry
14
Count Chocula
14
Cocoa Puffs
14
Boo Berry
14
Corn Pops
14
Cocoa Crisp
14
Cap'n Crunch w Crunch Berries
13
Fruity Pebbles
13
Summary
Cereal
Characteristic
Regions
Increasing
Highest-Lowest Biggest
Ratios
Increase
Biggest
Decrease
Highest Rated
4
0.4
West
Mid South
Lowest Rated
5
1.17
California
E North Cent
Low Fat
4
0.58
Mid South
E North Cent & West
Low Sodium
3
0.8
Mid South
California
High Fiber
4
0.65
E North Cent
California
Low Sugar
7
0.47
California
Mid South
High Sugar
3
1.26
West
Mid South
Summary
• Low Sodium cereals increased in the most
regions.
• Lowest Rated & High Sugar had the biggest
differences in ratios.
• Regions with the biggest changes are:
California, West, East North Central, and Mid
South.
Conclusions
• Nutrition doesn’t seem to be playing a big role
in cereal consumption, probably because “bad”
cereals are often healthier than the alternatives.
• The difference between Low & High Sugar
cereals is over stated because of added sugar.
• Probably the biggest asset RTE cereal
continues to enjoy is convenience.