Decision Making in
Socio-technological and
Global Contexts
David L. Ferguson
Distinguished Service Professor and Chair
Department of Technology and Society
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook, NY (USA)
Decision Making in Socio-technological
and Global Contexts
 Decision Context
 Frameworks for Decision Making
 Situating Decision Analysis within Broader
Decision Contexts
 Power and Limitations of Decision Analysis
 Implications of Decision Context and Decision
Analysis for Socio-technological and Global
Problem Solving
Decision Context
 Personal, social, and cultural factors greatly
influence the way in which we go about
making decisions..
 The Psychology of Judgment and Decision
Making (Scott Plous, McGraw-Hill, 1993)
 Saving Energy/Growing Jobs – How
Environmental Protection Promotes
Economic Growth, Profitability, Innovation,
and Competition (Goldstein, Bay Tree
Publishing, 2007)
Medical Testing
 A disease is present in 1/1000 of the
population.
 Test results are as follows:
Has Disease
POS.
95%
Neg.
5%
Free of Disease
POS.
1%
Neg.
99%
 A random member of the population gets a
positive result. What is the chance she/he
has the disease?
 Personal Attributes
 Organizational Culture
 Societal Influences
 Information-intensive Environments
 Technology-enabled Freedom
 Technology-supported Oppression
 Unusual, but wise collaboration
 Innovation is not just a luxury, but
rather a necessity
 Energy/Environment
 Science-based Regional
Development
 Globalization
Decision Frameworks
 Cost-benefit Analysis
 Decision Trees (expected Value,
expected Utility)
 Utility Theory
 Risk Assessment
Decision Frameworks (continued)
 Multi-criteria Decision Analysis
 Psychology of Decision Making
 Decision Making in Groups
 Organizational Structure,
Organizational Processes and
Decision Making
Rational Decision Making
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Evidence-based decision making
Data-driven decision making
Model-supported decision making
Decision-support systems
Decision analysis is a systematic approach to
sensing decision problems, analyzing
decision problems, and using such results in
broad decisions contexts so as to focus on
the right issues and make the best choices.
Transporting Chickens via a 707 Jet
Airplane
How many live chickens can be carried?
• 707 Jet holds about 180 people
• Human Passengers average 170 pounds
• Chicken Averages 2 pounds
• Weight of Cages for chickens = weight of
baggage for people
170 X 180 = 15,300
2
The Jet was in the air for 30 minutes and had to
land. WHY?
Applications of Decision Analysis
 When to release new products
 New research directions
 Outsourcing
 Location of manufacturing plants
 Governmental policies
 Medical decisions
 Educational decisions
Situating Decision Analysis
Within Broad Decision Contexts
 Case Study of Toyota
Engineering and Technology:
Socio-technological and Global Contexts
 Energy and Environmental Systems
 Biotechnology and Global Health
 Infrastructure (maintenance, smart buildings,
green buildings, etc.)
 Mechatronics
 Nanotechnology
 Wireless and Information Technology
 Discovery and Innovation (including scientific
discovery and technological innovation)
Engineering and Technology:
Socio-technological and Global Contexts
 Education (including (a) education technology, and (b)
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education in science, technology, engineering, and
mathematics)
Global Economics
Global Risks/Security
Data-supported Research-supported Practices in
Business and Industry (relate to Industry Studies)
Arts and Entertainment
Humanities and Commercial Value (synergy and
conflicts, and relationship to STEM)
Workforce of the Future (jobs, preparation)
Power and Limitations of Decision
Analysis
 Decision analysis demands deliberate,
systematic and transparent approaches to
decision problems. POWER
 Decision analysis relies on models which are
inherently abstractions of reality.
LIMITATION
Books
 The Definitive Drucker, by Elizabeth Haas
Edersheim, McGraw- Hill, 2007.
 The Google Story, by David A. Vise and Mark
Malseed, Delta Trade Paperbacks, 2006.
 Saving Energy/Growing Jobs – How
Environmental Protection Promotes
Economic Growth, Profitability, Innovation,
and Competition, by David B. Goldstein, Bay
Tree Publishing, 2007.
Books (continued)
 The Psychology of Judgment and Decision
Making, by Scott Plous, McGraw-Hill, 1993.
 The Wal-Mart Effect, by Charles Fishman,
Penguin Books, 2006.
 Advances in Decision Analysis, edited by
Ward Edwards, Ralph E. Miles, Jr., and Detlof
von Winterfeldt.