EOH 469: ENVIRONMENTAL
RISK ANALYSIS
EOH 469 - SPRING 2016
REBECCA LUSTIG, MS, REHS
THURSDAYS, 7 – 9:45PM
JANUARY 28: CLASS OVERVIEW
• Instructor
• Class Description
• Grading
• Topic 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis
ABOUT ME
• Bachelor’s Degree in Environmental and Occupational Health from CSUN
2007
• Master’s Degree in EOH from CSUN 2011
• U.S. Public Health Service COSTEP Summer 2007
• Ventura County Environmental Health Division 2007 – Present
• Part-time CSUN faculty Fall 2015 - Present
ABOUT ME
• Ventura Co EHD - Community Services Section
• Restaurant inspections and commercial-use pool inspections
• Foodborne illness investigations
• Housing inspections
• Food facility and pool plan review
• Emergency response
ABOUT ME
• Ventura Co EHD - CUPA Section
• Hazardous materials
• Hazardous waste / Tiered Permitting
• UST
• APSA
• Emergency response
• HAZWOPR certified
• ICC certified UST inspector
• OSFM certified APSA inspector
CLASS DESCRIPTION
• Lectures
• Office Hours after class or by appointment
• Two Midterms
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Feb. 18: Midterm #1 - Multiple Choice, Fill-in-the Blank, etc
April 14: Midterm #2 – Calculations
• Final Exam on May 19
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Material from Midterm #1 and #2
New material from remaining classes
GRADING / STUDENT EXPECTATIONS
• Three exams worth 100 points each
• Punctuality, class begins at 7pm
• Communication
• At least attempt calculations
IMPORTANT DATES
• No Class
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Feb 25 - at a conference
March 24 – Spring Break
March 31 - Holiday
• Test Dates
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Feb 18 – Midterm #1
April 14 – Midterm #2
May 19 - Final
TOPIC #1 : INTRODUCTION TO RISK
DEFINING RISK
• Webster’s Dictionary – “the possibility of suffering harm or loss”
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) – “the chance of harmful effects to
human health or to ecological systems resulting from exposure to an
environmental stressor”
• National Research Council – “the probability and magnitude of a hazard”
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Standard definition for working professionals
Most referenced definition
SYNONYMS FOR RISK
• Chance
• Uncertainty
• Instability
• Hazard
• Gamble
• Possibility
WHO DEALS WITH RISK?
• Athletes
• Gamblers
• Adventurers/Travelers
• Scientists
• Inventors
• Insurance Companies
• Governments
• Corporations
• Public/Environmental Health – THAT’S YOU!
WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS?
• Collection of approaches and disciplines devoted to all aspects of risk issues
• Deliberately broad and open
• New scientific disciplines make the definition a dynamic, not a static one
DISCIPLINES THAT ANALYZE RISK
• Epidemiology – study of the distribution and determinants of disease in
humans; tends to focus on the effects of risk, such as disease
• Toxicology – science of poisons; tends to focus on the cause of risk, such as
chemicals
• Statistics – analysis of quantifiable data to describe or infer the
characteristics of a population
COMPONENTS OF RISK ANALYSIS
According to the Society for Risk Analysis:
• Risk Assessment
• Risk Communication
• Risk Management
• *Risk Perception
RISK ASSESSMENT
• Definition: “ the characterization of adverse effects from exposure to
hazards”
• Example: “the risk of cancer from chemical X is greater than one in a million”
• Includes probabilities, uncertainties, analytic model(s) used to access
adverse effects
• Traditionally uses 4 step model
4-STEP RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
• 1. Hazard Identification
• 2. Exposure Assessment
• 3. Dose-Response Assessment
• 4. Risk Characterization
STEP 1 - HAZARD IDENTIFIACTION
• Determine whether a particular agent is causally linked to particular health effects
• Specific adverse health effects are called “Hazard Endpoints”
• Discussed further in Topic 2
STEP 2 - EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
• Determine the extent of human contact with a harmful agent
• Useful to evaluate before and after application of regulatory controls
• Discussed further in Topic 6
STEP 3 - DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT
• Determine the relationship between the magnitude of exposure and the
probability of occurrence of health effects in question
• For example, how much of chemical X will kill 50% of lab mice in an
experiment?
• Discussed further in Topic 7
STEP 4 - RISK CHARACTERIZATION
• Describe the nature and magnitude of human risk, including its uncertainty
• Integrates information from previous steps
• Discussed further in Topic 8
SCREENING RISK ASSESSMENT
• Uses relatively simple models and limited data
• Missing data means the use of:
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1. many assumptions
2. conservative default values
REFINED RISK ASSESSMENT
• Requires more data, more sophisticated models, fewer assumptions, and
fewer default values
• No limit to degree of refinement
• Uncertainties can be substantially lowered
• Emerging technologies
APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF REFINEMENT
• Depends on the situation / problem being assessed
• Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler
• “Purpose is to optimize the use of resources and perform a more
detailed risk assessment only when warranted” – Cal EPA Risk
Assessment Advisory Committee, referring to screening risk
assessments
• In truth, aren’t all risk assessments screening risk assessments?
BIAS IN RISK ANALYSIS
• A systematic error, or deviation from the truth, in results or inferences
• Can operate in either direction; different biases can lead to underestimation
or overestimation of the true intervention effect.
• Can vary in magnitude
•https://youtu.be/i1jzI_ow3LY
RISK COMMUNICATION
• Definition: “an interactive exchange of information and opinions among
individuals, groups, and institutions regarding risk”
• Keywords: interactive, opinions, multiple parties involved
• Cognitive Models and Planning Models
COGNITIVE MODELS
• Stress the perceptions and biases people have for risk
• Fear
• Risk – Reward
• Psychological factors
PLANNING MODELS
• 4 Parts:
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1. Source
2. Message
3. Channels
4. Receiver
• Interactive exchange
• All elements are crucial
RISK MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT
• Definition: “the evaluation, selection, and implementation of risk control
actions”
• Evaluation and selections are decisions made from a risk analysis
• Implementation refers to the actions that are part of risk management
• Uses tools from economics, engineering, administration and law
RISK MANAGEMENT PARADOX
• If all risk is unacceptable, and all alternatives are risky…..
• Then all alternatives will be rejected, no progress will be made and nothing
will get done, risk could actually increase
• Managing expectations
• Making unpopular decisions
RISK PERCEPTION
• Definition: “belief held by an individual or group about the probability
and/or magnitude of a risk and its effects”
• Perceived risk may motivate the decision to do a risk assessment
• Perceptions may change after the assessment and/or the management
decisions have been implemented
• Begin new cycle of risk analysis when new information changes perceptions
QUESTIONS TO ASK
1.
Who are the key participants in this risk assessment?
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The client
Regulatory agencies
Private corporations
Other consultants
Citizens groups
QUESTIONS TO ASK
2. Since the definitions of risk can vary, how is it defined in this case?
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By the client
By the relevant agencies (or law)
By any other significant participants in the process
QUESTIONS TO ASK
3. Is this issue truly in need of a risk analysis?
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Would the results of the risk analysis have any effect on the decision?
Is this more an issue of risk assessment, risk communication, or risk management?
The answer will influence strategies and interpretation
QUESTIONS TO ASK
4. What are some immediate uncertainties for this risk analysis?
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Staffing
Funding
QUESTIONS TO ASK
5. What are the key information sources for this risk?
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Obtain relevant documents
Historical data
Experts
Varying interpretation and opinions
Laws / Regulations / Statutes / Standards / Guidance documents
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND RISK
• Concern about how public health is impacted by environmental hazards
• Concern about how the environment is impacted by manmade/natural hazards
• EH professionals, public and private sector, have an obligation to address this
concern….enter the need for Risk Analysis
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
• EPA uses risk assessment to characterize the nature and magnitude of
health risks to humans and ecological receptors from chemical
contaminants and other stressors, that may be present in the environment.
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• Risk assessment was always a part of EPA’s function
• First risk assessment document was completed in 1975
• “Quantitative Risk Assessment for Community Exposure to Vinyl Chloride”
• 1976: “Interim Procedures and Guidelines for Health Risk and Economic
Impact Assessments of Suspected Carcinogens”
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 1980: EPA announced water quality criteria documents for 64 contaminants
• Marked first EPA document describing quantitative procedures used in risk
assessment
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 1983: National Academy of Science published “Risk Assessment in the
Federal Government: Managing the Process”
• AKA – the Red Book
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 1984: EPA published “Risk Assessment and Management: Framework for
Decisions Making”
• Emphasized transparency in the risk assessment process
INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM
• Release in 1980’s
• Database of human health effects that may result from exposure to various
substances
• http://www.epa.gov/iris
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 1990’s: EPA began issuing guidelines for conducting risk assessments
• Initial focus on human health risk assessment in 1980’s
• Basic model was adapted to ecological risk assessment in 1990’s to deal
with plants, animals and whole ecosystems
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• National Academy of Science published:
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“Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children”
“Science and Judgement in Risk Assessment”
“Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society”
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 1995: EPA updated and issued their current “Risk Characterization Policy”
• Risk assessments done by EPA must include risk characterization
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To ensure the assessment process is transparent
Clear, reasonable and consistent
2000: EPA develops “Risk Characterization Handbook” to implement this new policy
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• Congressional / Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk
Management (CRARM) was created by 1990 Clean Air Act amendments and
formed in 1994
• Investigate policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and
risk management in regulatory programs
• 1997: CRARM published report discussing importance of evaluating
strategies to reduce human and ecological risks
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS
• 2009: “Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment”
• Updated recommendations from National Academy of Sciences
• AKA – the Silver Book
SILVER BOOK
• Improving technical analysis and utility of risk assessment for decision
making
• Promotes risk assessment should be viewed as a method for evaluating the
relative merits of various options
• Greater need for upfront planning of the risk assessment
• Need for involvement of all appropriate stake holders
EPA’S NATIONAL CENTER
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
• Leader in the science of human health and ecological risk assessment
• Part of EPA’s Office of Research and Development
• Prepare technical reports and assessments that integrate and evaluate research
• Develops quantitative risk assessment methods
EPA RAGS
• RAGS – Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund
• Useful for preparing a human health risk assessment
• Assists in decision – making at remediation sites
EXECUTIVE ORDER 13045
• Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and
Safety Risks
• High priority to identify and assess risk that disproportionately
affect children
• Accounts for behaviors, body weight, differences in body / organ
system development
ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT
• 1992 - Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment
• 1998 - Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance
• Evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are
occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors
• GEAE – Generic Ecological Assessment Endpoints
PRELIMINARY ENDANGERMENT
ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE MANUAL
• Basic information for determining if there has been a release of a hazardous
substance that presents a risk to human health or the environment
• Environmental consultants conducting PEAs for private parties with Department
of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) oversight
• Hazard Index Equations
• Risk Equations
• Field Sampling
• Information for Preliminary Assessment and Site Inspection (PA / SI) investigations
RBCA
• Risk – Based Corrective Action
• ASTM E-2081 - standard guide for risk-based corrective action
• Stream-lined approach for selecting corrective action at
petroleum release sites
• Help focus limited resources on sites that pose greatest risk to
human health and the environment
REVIEW OF TOPIC 1
• Introduction to EOH 469
• Defining Risk
• Risk Analysis
• Environmental Risk Analysis documents and tools
QUESTIONS??