Aggregate Demand aggregate-a total (gross) amount 1. 2. 3. 4. How is aggregate demand different than demand? What are the components of AD? Why is this important? How is the AD curve constructed? Explain what the AD curve shows, including why the curve is downward sloping. The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations • Two variables are used to develop a model to analyze the short-run fluctuations. – The economy’s output of goods and services measured by real GDP. – The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator. • The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply – Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around its long-run trend. Where does the concept originate? The AS-AD Model • Aggregate demand-total quantity of aggregate output (real GDP), that all buyers in an economy want to buy at different possible price levels, ceteris paribus – Simpler terms: “sum of total planned expenditure for a given price level by households, firms, gov’t, and foreign sectors during a period of time • The macroeconomic aggregate demand-aggregate supply model is fundamentally different from the microeconomic demand/supply model. • HOW? WHY? AS-AD Model: How and Why • Microeconomic supply/demand curves concern the price and quantity of a single good: – Price of a single good is measured on the x-axis and quantity of a single good is measured on the y-axis – The shapes are based on the concepts of substitution/complements and opportunity cost • In the AS-AD model the price of everything is included – Aggregate output (real GDP) is on the x-axis, price level on the y-axis (average of prices of all goods/services, measured by GDP deflator) – Substitutions/complements can’t be graphed, since we’re showing aggregates—to overcome, we use inflation-adjusted monetary value of real GDP – Shapes based on GDP In other words… • AD curve is unlike any other curve you’ve encountered in this text – In all other cases, our curves have represented simple behavioral relationships • But AD curve represents more than just a behavioral relationship between two variables – Each point on curve represents a short-run equilibrium in economy • A better name for AD curve would be “equilibrium output at each price level” curve—not a very catchy name – AD curve gets its name because it resembles demand curve for an individual product – AD curve is not a demand curve at all, in spite of its name Figure 3 The Aggregate-Demand Curve... Price Level P P2 1. A decrease in the price level . . . 0 Aggregate demand Y Y2 Quantity of Output 2. . . . increases the quantity of goods and services demanded. Copyright © 2004 South-Western Aggregate Demand Curve • The aggregate demand curve shows the relationship between the quantity of aggregate output demanded (real GDP demanded) and the aggregate price level (economy’s price level), ceteris paribus • SO: a fall in the average price level (GDP deflator) will lead to a movement along the AD curve (ie., increase in real GDP) at a given price level – We assume ceteris paribus for all other variables (we’ll show change in AD curve next time) The Aggregate Demand Curve • The aggregate demand (AD) curve shows how a change in the price level changes aggregate expenditures on all goods and services in an economy. • It shows the level of expenditures that would take place at every price level in the economy. • The AD is a downward sloping curve. The Slope of the AD Curve • Aggregate demand is composed of the sum of aggregate expenditures. • Same components of AD as those in expenditure method of GDP accounting: GDP (Y) = C + I + G +(X - M) – Consumption (C), investment expenditure (I), gov’t spending (G), export revenue (X), import expenditure (-M) The Aggregate Demand Curve • Aggregate Demand is the total value of real GDP that all sectors of the economy (C + I + G + (X-M)) are willing to purchase at various price levels. When the price level increases, (inflation), people purchase less output. AD Curve slopes Downward (Movement along the curve) • Real Income (Wealth) Effect – You feel poorer, so you spend less – Purchasing power declines with inflation (incr. in price level) • Upward movement along AD curve (and vice-versa) • (Real Balance) Interest Rate Effect – Rising prices push up interest rates (due to consumers/firms needing more money to carry out purchases/transactions) – Lenders need higher interest rates to compensate for eroding purchasing power of money • Leads to fall in quantity of output (upward movement on ADc) • Foreign Purchases (int’l trade) Effect – If prices rise in the US (but not abroad), exports decrease and imports increase, so (X-M) decreases The Interest Rate Effect • The interest rate effect works as follows: a decrease in the price level increase of real cash banks have more money to lend interest rates fall investment expenditures increase Economic shorthand (p. 279) • Real income effect: – Δ↓price level→ Δ↑Yreal → Δ↑C → Δ↑QAD • Y=money • Real balance effect: – Δ↓price level→ Δ↑value real savings → Δ↑potential future C & I → Δ↓opp. cost present C & I → Δ↑ C & I → Δ↑QAD • International trade effect: – Δ↓domestic price level → Δ↑relative PM → Δ↓M → Δ↑QAD – Δ↓domestic price level → Δ↓relative PX → Δ↑X → Δ↑QAD • P=trade partner • M=import expenditures • Relative=in comparison to/with Explain what’s happening here… Aggregate Demand Shift (Determinants of AD) How is shifting aggregate demand different than a graph of aggregate demand? What are the determinants of aggregate demand? How will determinants shift the AD curve? Why? Some differences • When we move along AD curve in Figure 2, we assume that price level changes – But that other influences on equilibrium GDP are constant • Keep following rule in mind: • When a change in price level causes equilibrium GDP to change, we move along AD curve (E to H) • Whenever anything other than price level causes equilibrium GDP to change, AD curve itself shifts Determinants of AD • Movement along the AD curve is caused by changes in the price level – Price level=average of current prices across the entire spectrum of goods and services produced in the economy • Shifts left or right of the AD curve are caused by the determinants of AD Rightward shift from AD1 to AD2 means that AD increases: for any price level, a larger amount of real GDP is demanded. A leftward shift would mean that AD decreases: for any price level, a smaller amount of real GDP is demanded. The determinants • Since AD is composed of consumer spending (C), investment spending (I), government spending (G) and net export spending (X-M), changes in AD can be caused by any factor that produces a change in one of these four components • Four shifters: 1. Changes in consumption spending 2. Changes in investment spending 3. Changes in government spending 4. Changes in net exports (foreign spending) Consumption spending (p. 238) • Changes in: – Consumer confidence – Interest rates (monetary policy) – Wealth – Personal income taxes (fiscal policy) – Level of “indebtedness” Investment spending (p.239) • Changes in: – Business confidence – Interest rates (monetary policy) – Improvement in technology – Business taxes (fiscal policy) – Level of corporate indebtedness – Legal/institutional changes Government spending (p. 239) • Changes can be due to shift in political priorities, or shift in economic priorities (fiscal policy) – Increased gov’t spending shifts AD to right; decrease shifts AD to left • Policy makers can use fiscal policy and monetary policy to shift the aggregate demand curve • Fiscal policy: setting a budget for government spending for the next year (i.e., changing tax rates) Tax and/or government spending AD • Monetary policy: central bank of a country (i.e, the Federal Reserve in the US) adjusts interest rates (r) or money supply in circulation – EX: increase in interest rate results in rising opp. cost of consumption (more interest forgone by saving); interest payments increase Federal Reserve money supply interest rates spending AD Foreign spending • Changes in: – National income abroad (trading partners’ income) – Exchange rates – Level of trade protection • Ceteris paribus: no trade barriers exist (i.e., tariffs) Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve – Rightward Shift Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve – Leftward Shift