Party Nominations
Important questions
• Why are nominations important to a party?
• What should a party want in a nominee?
• Who in the party should decide who the
nominee will be?
• What effect does the selection process have
over the relationship between the “party” and the
nominee?
How do parties select nominees?
• In general, primaries
Primary election laws
• Two basic types:
– Open
– Closed
Specific types of primaries
• Open: voter decides in which primary to vote in
the voting booth
• Semi-open: voter decides in which primary to
vote at the polling place
• Semi-closed: unaffiliated voters can vote in
primary; voters can change party reg. at polls
• Closed: party registration required, must
register in defined time period
• Nonpartisan: Top two primary votegetters get
into runoff (general) election
How do parties select nominees?
• In general, primaries
• Why might primaries be bad for the party?
• How might the party try to minimize those
risks?
What could the party do to influence a
primary election?
• Gerrymander
• Recruit/Discourage
• Express unified support for one candidate
– (Endorse explicitly where allowed)
Parties unify most often in competitive
seats
Percent of each race type
where there is party elite
unity around one primary
candidate
Number of races
Open-safe
Opencompetitive
Out-party
in
competitive
incumbent
seat
37%
65%
82%
27
40
40
* Difference between open-safe and open-competitive is statistically significant
Nominating a presidential
candidate
• Delegates to the national nominating convention
vote on who the nominee will be
• Delegates are chosen through primaries,
caucuses, and conventions
• Dems/Reeps have different rules for selecting
delegates
Delegate Allocation
State
Clinton
Obama
Huckabee
AL
25
27
26
AK
3
10
6
AZ
31
25
AR
27
8
CA
203
167
Romney
McCain
19
12
3
50
21
1
1
15
155
Percent of popular vote in state
AL
42%
56%
41%
18%
37%
AK
25%
75%
22%
44%
15%
AZ
50%
43%
9%
35%
47%
AR
70%
26%
61%
14%
20%
CA
52%
43%
12%
35%
42%
How does a candidate win the
nomination?
• Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party activists
– That s/he is a good representative of the party
– That s/he can win the general election
• Convince them through:
– Campaigns (which cost money)
– Party elite endorsements
– Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the frontrunner!)
• Responding to the rules better than opponents
– Obama’s delegate strategy/Giuliani’s Florida strategy
– Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary” (especially in a
frontloaded system!)
2008
Date
Jan wk1
Jan wk2
Jan wk3
IA, WY
Jan wk4
Feb wk1
SC, FL
Feb wk2
LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA,
HI, WI
NH,
MI, NV
AK, HI
ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, LA
MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK,
KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT
IA
NH
Feb wk3
Feb wk4
Mar wk1
1996
DE, AZ, ND, SD
OH, RI, TX, VT
CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND,
MA, NY, OH, RI, VT
Effects of the primary calendar
• No primaries
– Effects on candidate behavior
– Effects on general election chances
– Importance of activists/elites
• Late, spread out primaries
– Effects on candidate behavior
– Effects on general election chances
– Importance of activists/elites
• Frontloaded primaries
– Effects on candidate behavior
– Effects on general election chances
– Importance of activists/elites
What role do party activists,
elites, and rank and file voters
play in this presidential
nomination process?