Unit III
Elections, Campaigns
The News Media
Ch. 9 - ELECTIONS
Objectives
•
•
•
•
•
Demonstrate an understanding of the electoral
process in the United States, and explain how it
relates to democratic theory.
Discuss the factors that influence voter turnout in
the United States, and compare American voter
turnout to that of other nations.
Describe historical restrictions on the vote in the
United States, and explain how these restrictions
have been ended.
Describe the types of elections held in the United
States, and explain constitutional reasons for so
many elections.
Discuss the impact of the mechanics and technology
of voting on voter turnout, vote fraud, and the
ability of citizens to trust the process.
VOTER TURNOUT
• Voter
Turnout
• What does
the graph
reflect?
• WHY does
this occur?
• What
SHOULD
happen?
In 2012, only 55% of the eligible voters (VAP) turned out.
Effect of Low Voter Turnout: 2 schools of thought
1. Satisfaction with
status quo
a. Republican
Democracy still
works with small
numbers
2. Threat to Republican
Democratic System
a. Too few with
power
b. Cynicism
c. Complicated
issues/
indifference
d. Negative view
IS VOTER TURNOUT DECLINING?
• Problem= comparing # of
people who actually vote
with the # of people in the
voting age population (VAP)
NOT the pop. of eligible
voters
• VAP includes felons, exfelons, non-citizen
immigrants & leaves
out Americans abroad
 Voter turnout
has “declined” b/c
of increasing size
of ineligible pop—
immigrants
Who Does Vote in America?
• People with a
high sense of
political efficacy
vote!
• What factors
influence who
votes?
• Age
• Education
• Race
• Gender
• Socioeconomic
status
Age and the Vote in America
• What trends are there?
• WHY do you think this is so?
Education and the Vote in America
Race and the
Vote in
America
Gender and the
Vote in America
• What is the gender gap?
• Who votes more…
• married or single women?
Income Level & the Vote
Socio-economic Class: High education/income
= the most important factor in who will vote!
WHY PEOPLE DON’T VOTE
1.
2.
3.
Uninformative Media
a. Horse race aspects reported
Negative campaigning
a. All ugly
The Rational Ignorance
Effect: an effect produced when
people purposely and rationally
decide not to become informed
on an issue because they believe
their vote on the issue is not
likely to be a deciding one
“All the polls, the spin, the attack ads, the
money and the negative news have
soured Americans on the way we choose
our president.”
Why do
Americans vote
on Tuesdays?
VOTER REGISTRATION
 Another reason people don’t vote –
• claim it’s a hardship to register
• Purpose of voter registration:
• to disenfranchise immigrants
• to prevent corruption associated with stuffing ballot
boxes
• STATES set registration procedures
• Citizenship, age, residency requirements
• FL – can vote if registered 29 days
before the election
• Motor Voter Acts of 1993/6 allow
voters to register when getting
driver’s licenses
 Registration increased; turnout did NOT
What are the
partisan
arguments
regarding
voter
restrictions?
PLANS FOR IMPROVING
VOTER TURNOUT
1.
Mail-in voting
(Oregon)
2. Easier access to
registration
 Turnout still low
Visit polls up
to 3 weeks
in advance
Absentee
ballot—no
reason
NATIONAL
HOLIDAY?
Vote on
Sunday?
Review Time!
• Find a partner and brainstorm in bulleted lists
how you would respond to the following prompt:
 In the United States political system, there are several linkage
institutions that can connect citizens to government. Elections
constitute one such institution. Because of low voter turnout,
elections represent an imperfect method of linking citizens to their
government. Even when there is low voter turnout, however, other
linkage institutions can connect citizens to government.
(a)Describe how each of the following is related to the
likelihood of voting: age, education
(b)Identify one current government electoral
requirement that decreases voter turnout. Explain
how it decreases voter turnout.
(c)Identify one linkage institution other than elections
and explain two ways it connects citizens to
government.
HISTORICAL EXTENSIONS OF VOTING RIGHTS
 The writers of the Constitution allowed states to
decide who should vote.
 In most American colonies, only white males who
owned property with a certain minimum value were
eligible to vote.
 By 1850s, universal male suffrage
 Western states gave women
the right to vote first.
 All women gained suffrage
in 1920 via the 19th
amendment
BLACK VOTING RIGHTS
• Suffrage
extended to
black men
after Civil War
… but
• by the end of
the century
the rights of
African
Americans all
but rolled
back
Federal Voting Mandate
15th Amendment (1870)
The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be
denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on
account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.
First federal mandate affecting state voting
requirements!
Denial of Black
Vote in the PostReconstruction
South:
24th Amendment
(1964):
Prohibits a poll tax as
qualification to vote
THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT, 1965
 Helps enforce the 15th
Amendment; prevents states
from denying citizens the right to
vote based on race.
IS THE VOTING FRANCHISE STILL
TOO RESTRICTIVE?
• Ineligible to vote: Prisoners, Election law violators, mentally
incompetent (some states), 17 and under, noncitizens, and
convicted felons
• Pro and con arguments for denying vote to convicted felons?
PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES
Most states use
primary rather
than caucus
system of
nomination
• Purpose is to nominate!
 to choose the party’s
candidate for the General
Election (local, state,
federal)
• For Presidential elections,
voters in primaries and
caucuses are actually choosing
delegates to the national
convention who will vote for
and officially nominate the
party’s presidential candidate
Caucus Systems
• Originally, all states used
a caucus of state party
leaders to select
delegates to national
convention
• Today open to all voters
registered with a party
• Iowa has first caucus
 Caucuses organized in a
pyramid system:
State caucus
chooses
delegates to
national
convention
District caucus
chooses
delegates to
state
Local party caucus
chooses delegates to a
district party meeting
THE IOWA CAUCUS
Is it representative?
Race
Iowa
U.S. Population
White
93%
78%
Black
3.1%
13.1%
Latino
5.2%
16.7%
• Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have
been the first major electoral event of
the nominating process for President .
• Only about 1% of the nation's delegates
are chosen by the Iowa State
Convention.
• What criticism could be made about the
level of impact that this caucus has?
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:
•
•
•
Primaries began in 20th century to take
nominations out of hands of party bosses
They are basically elimination contests
Which state has the first primary?
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES:
•
•
•
NH is first (since 1940) with a January date
Only 3 times since ’52 has anyone lost NH & won
the nomination of their party
• Bill Clinton, George W. Bush & Barack Obama –
is there a new trend?
It’s all about IMAGE …. is NH representative?
Primaries Choose Delegates
•
•
Parties match up # of delegates a candidate
gets to send to the parties’ national
convention based on how the candidate did in
the primary
The actual delegates are chosen later by the
parties
• Ds require “proportional” allocation
• Rs give states discretion (some winner
take all; some proportional)
• FL is winner take all
Types of Primaries
• Three Types of State Primaries:
1. Closed
 Only registered party voters can vote - FL
2. Open
 Voters can decide on the day of the
election which party’s primary to vote in;
can only vote in one
3. Blanket
 Voters can cast votes for candidates in
multiple parties – can cast a split-ticket
 Each state manages its own party operation.
Frontloading of Primaries
• Major trend with party primaries – states began
scheduling them earlier & earlier
• So much “frontloading” of primaries that in
2000, 2/3 of both D & R delegates were chosen
within 6 weeks of NH primary
Complete Interactive Primary & Caucus Schedule 2016
And Delegate Count
SUPER TUESDAY!
March 1, 2016
• Multi-state primary day
• Geographically & socially
diverse regions all voting
on same day
• Why is it so significant?

Super Tuesday 2016:

AK(c), AL (p), AR (p), CO (c), GA
(p), MA (p), MN (c), OK (p), TN
(p), TX (p), VA (p), VT (p),
Primary Reform Proposals
• NATIONAL:
•
•
•
•
•
One national primary election
Simple & more direct
Length & cost of campaign
reduced
No state would have higher
impact
Critics argue:
• Would require a runoff
• Too much $; too much media
• REGIONAL:
• Different regions of country
would vote in different weeks
• Rotate order
• Problem: which region gets to
go first!
Primary/Caucus System:
Advantages
•
•
•
PEOPLE’S CHOICE! Primaries give voters a large role
in choosing a party’s presidential candidate.
Long primary season gives voters time to get to know
the candidates…….too long?
Candidates can learn more about what voters want and
what they’ll support once a president is elected.
CRITICISMS
OF PRIMARY/CAUCUS SYSTEM
• Disproportionate amount of
attention goes to early ones
• Money plays too big a role;
running for P has become a full
time job
• Participation is low and not
representative
• Generally only about 20%
participation
• Only the more educated,
affluent vote in primaries
• Gives too much power to media!
Types of Elections
1. Primaries & Caucuses
2. General Elections
 Purpose?
 What types of positions?
 What’s a midterm election?
Use the note space on this slide to respond to the above questions.
3. Recall Elections = de-elections
• Get enough votes on petition to
remove an official from office:
governors, etc.
• NOT the P
• How Schwarzenegger became CA Gov.
Policy Question Elections
4. Two methods for getting on a state ballot in
policy question elections:
a)
Initiative – voters “initiate” law
Voters get petitions to place legislative measures and/or
constitutional amendments directly on ballot
b) Referendum – voters ratifying laws
1. State legislature puts proposed legislation or
constitutional amendments on a ballot for voter approval
(usually due to strong opinion polls showing voters want
something the legislature has not done
2. OR, voters rejecting a measure passed by state
legislature; tax increases may require a referendum
• Initiatives & Referendums are DIRECT
DEMOCRACY!
• Florida's constitution ONLY allows citizens to
amend the constitution by initiative; does not
apply to state statutes.
Voting & Turnout
Review
• Why DO people vote?
• What has happened as
suffrage has been
extended?
• #1 factor determining
who will vote?
• Profile of a typical voter?
• #1 Reason for NOT
voting?
• Who is ineligible?
•Reasons turnout lower in
U.S than elsewhere:
• Required to register
• Required to show ID
• Vote A LOT more often
than other nations
• Weakened influence of
political parties
• Some nations give
holidays on voting day
HOW do Americans Vote?
• U.S. uses the Australian ballot system for voting,
• a secret ballot
• Who controls the types of secret ballots used?
• STATES!
• Many different forms of ballots:
• electronic touch-screens, fill-in-the arrow, punch, etc.
• Oregon is the only state that uses a mail-only ballot –
• saves $$$$ …. effect on turnout?
• Mandate Theory of Voting:
• Winners of election have mandate
from people to carry out campaign
promises
• Retrospective Voting: what have
you done for me lately?
Bellwork
• Go to the following link at 538.com and study the
article on the Endorsement Primary.
• http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016endorsement-primary/
• Record your comments in the notes section
below this slide.
• What strikes you as interesting?
• Do you notice anything missing?
• What can the past endorsement primaries
potentially tell us about the 2016 primary
season?
Electoral College
True or False?
• The candidate with the most votes is elected
president.
• Answer: Not necessarily….. ask Al Gore.
ELECTORAL VOTES BY STATE
Solid Republican 151
Solid Democrat 186
The Electoral College
How it Works
• Each State has as many electoral votes as it
has U.S. Senators and Representatives.
 How many does FL have?
• November - voters go to the polls in
for the general election and vote – the
popular vote
 But-who are they actually choosing?
 A slate of electors chosen by each
party.
• The candidate who gets the most
popular votes in a state gets ALL of
that state’s electoral votes. It is a
winner-take-all system!
The Electoral College
December:
• Electors (representing
ONLY the candidates who
won the popular vote in
their state) meet in the
state capitals to cast their
votes for the P & VP
candidates they represent.
• Do they have to vote as
pledged?
The Electoral College
How it Works
• January - Votes from the states are opened by
the President of the Senate (VP) and counted and
P & VP winners are officially declared.
• January 20 – Inauguration Day - new P sworn in.
• What if no one gets 270 votes?
• There’s a tie or no one with the majority ….
• Election goes to the House of Reps (12th
Am.)
• Must choose from the top 3 candidates
• Each state gets only one vote (26 to win)
• What if the House vote is not decided by Jan. 20?
• Current VP presides until new P is
determined
CHECK FOR UNDERSTANDING:
• FLORIDA has 29 members in the U.S. Congress.
• The popular vote was 40,950 votes for the
Democrat and 60,050 votes for the Republican.
• How many electoral votes will the Republican
candidate receive from the state of Florida?
• How many electoral votes will the Democratic
candidate receive from the state of Florida?
Primary criticism of the Electoral College?
MAINE & NEBRASKA
• Maine & Nebraska use the Congressional
District Method, not the winner-take-all
system in determining electoral votes.
 Two of the state’s electoral votes go to the winner
of the popular vote in the state.
 Then one votes goes to the popular vote winner in
each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in
Nebraska) in their state.
• Neither state had ever split its
electoral vote until Nebraska did in
2008.
 McCain won the state and 1st and 3rd
districts
 Obama got 1 vote from the 2nd district
Problems with the Electoral College
• May win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote
• Small states are overrepresented since every state gets 2
Senators
• Candidates tend to focus only on states with a close contest
• Gives extra clout to large states & urban areas
• Works against third parties
• PLANS FOR REFORM:
1. Direct Vote System
2. The District Election Plan
3. The Proportional Plan
4. The National Bonus Plan
• Why hasn’t it been abolished?
2012
THREE
MAJOR
ELECTIONS
Election of 1896
A turning point in politics –
a victory for big business,
big cities, middle class
values & financial
conservatism
• Economics is issue –
gold vs. silver
• Critical election –
realigned voters along
economic lines
• 80% VOTER TURNOUT!!
• S & W hit hard by
depressions
• N highly urbanized
• McKinley, Republican
vs. Bryan, Democrat &
Populist
• Anti-Bryan Democrats
realigned to Republican
party
Election of 2000 – What a Mess!
FL VOTE: BUSH 2,912,790
GORE 2,912,253 537 Votes!
NADER
97,000
POPULAR BUSH 50,456,062 (47.45%)
VOTE:
GORE 59,996,582 (48.04%)
Butterfly Ballot
The Chad Problem
We Became “Floriduh”
Bush v. Gore, 2000
• Bush’s lead in FL over Gore was less than 1/10 of 1% triggered an automatic recount under FL law
• FLORIDA SUPREME COURT
• Gore sued in FL Supreme Court to get a manual recount
• Bush opposed saying manual recount would be arbitrary,
subject to manipulation & differing standards
• FL SUPREME COURT ruled with Gore
• U.S. SUPREME COURT
• Bush appealed FL Supreme Court decision
• SUPREME COURT overruled FL Court (for Bush)
• Held that recount was legal BUT
•
•
Same standards for evaluation would have to be
applied in all counties - which was impossible, and
that the recount could not extend past the Dec. 12
date when FL electors would vote
• Bush wins – only election ever decided by SCOTUS
Saturday Night Live!
Election 2000
rts Court
Roberts Court