PowerPoint Presentation by Mehdi Arzandeh, University of Manitoba Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply 12 LEARNING OBJECTIVES LO12.1 LO12.2 LO12.3 LO12.4 LO12.5 LO12.6 Define aggregate demand (AD) and explain how its downward slope is the result of the real-balances effect, the interest-rate effect, and the foreign-trade effect. Explain the factors that cause changes (shifts) in AD. Define aggregate supply (AS) and explain how it differs in the immediate short run, the short run, and the long run. Explain the factors that cause changes (shifts) in AS. Discuss how AD and AS determine an economy’s equilibrium price level and level of real GDP. Describe how the AD–AS model explains periods of demand–pull inflation, cost– push inflation, and recession. © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-2 12.1 Aggregate Demand • Aggregate demand is a schedule or curve that shows the amounts of real output (real GDP) that buyers collectively desire to purchase at each possible price level LO1 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-3 The Aggregate Demand Curve Price level FIGURE 12-1 AD 0 LO1 Real domestic output, GDP © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-4 12.1 Aggregate Demand • Slopes downward because of the following effects of a change in price level: 1. Real-balances Effect 2. Interest-rate Effect 3. Foreign Trade Effect LO1 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-5 Changes in Aggregate Demand Price level FIGURE 12-2 AD2 AD3 0 LO2 AD1 Real domestic output, GDP © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-6 12.2 Changes in Aggregate Demand Determinants of Aggregate Demand CONSUMER SPENDING • Consumer wealth • Household borrowing • Consumer expectations • Personal taxes LO2 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-7 12.2 Changes in Aggregate Demand INVESTMENT SPENDING • Real Interest Rates • Expected Returns • Expectations about future business conditions • Technology • Degree of excess capacity • Business taxes LO2 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-8 12.2 Changes in Aggregate Demand GOVERNMENT SPENDING • Government spending increases, aggregate demand increases (as long as interest rates and tax rates do not change) • e.g. More computers for government agencies • Government spending decreases, aggregate demand decreases • e.g. Less transportation projects LO2 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-9 12.2 Changes in Aggregate Demand NET EXPORT SPENDING • National income abroad • Exchange rates • Dollar depreciation • Dollar appreciation LO2 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-10 12.3 Aggregate Supply • Aggregate supply is a schedule or curve showing the relationship between the price level of output and the amount of real domestic output that firms in the economy produce LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-11 12.3 Aggregate Supply • Aggregate supply depends on three time horizons: • The immediate short run • The short run • The long run LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-12 12.3 Aggregate Supply • Aggregate Supply in the Immediate Short Run • In the immediate short run, both input prices and output prices are fixed • In the immediate short run, the aggregate supply curve is horizontal at an economy’s current price level • With output prices fixed, firms collectively supply the level of output that is demanded at those prices LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-13 FIGURE 12-3 Aggregate Supply in the Immediate Short Run Price level Immediate-short-run aggregate supply P1 0 ASISR GDPf Real domestic output, GDP LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-14 12.3 Aggregate Supply • Aggregate Supply in the Short Run The short run begins after the immediate short run ends. The short run is a period of time during which output prices are flexible but input prices are either totally fixed or highly inflexible. LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-15 12.3 Aggregate Supply The upward-sloping aggregate supply curve AS indicates a direct (or positive) relationship between the price level and the amount of real output that firms will offer for sale The AS curve is relatively flat below the full-employment output It is relatively steep beyond the full-employment output LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-16 FIGURE 12-4 Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve AS Price level Aggregate supply (short run) 0 GDPf Real domestic output, GDP LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-17 12.3 Aggregate Supply • Aggregate Supply in the Long Run • For the economy as a whole, it is the time horizon over which all output and input prices are fully flexible • It begins after the short run ends • Price-level changes do not affect firms’ profits and thus they create no incentive for firms to alter their output. LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-18 FIGURE 12-5 Aggregate Supply in the Long Run Price level ASLR Long-run aggregate supply 0 GDPf Real domestic output, GDP LO3 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-19 12.4 Changes in Aggregate Supply • Determinants of Short-Run Aggregate Supply • Input prices • • Domestic factor prices Price of imported resources • Productivity • Legal-institutional environment • Business taxes and subsidies • Government regulation LO4 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-20 FIGURE 12-6 Changes in Short-Run Aggregate Supply AS3 AS1 Price level AS2 0 LO4 Real domestic output, GDP © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-21 12.5 Equilibrium in the AD-AS Model • Equilibrium occurs at the price level that equalizes the amount of real output demanded and supplied. • At the intersection of AD and AS: • Equilibrium price level • Equilibrium real output LO5 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-22 FIGURE 12-7 KEY GRAPH – The Equilibrium Price Level and Equilibrium Real GDP Price level (index numbers) AS 100 a 92 b Real Output Demanded (Billions) Price Level (Index Number) Real Output Supplied (Billions) $506 108 $513 508 104 512 510 100 510 512 96 507 514 92 502 AD 0 502 510 514 Real domestic output, GDP (billions of dollars) LO5 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-23 12.6 Changes in Equilibrium •Increases in AD: Demand-Pull Inflation • For any initial increase in aggregate demand, the resulting increase in real output will be smaller the greater is the increase in the price level • Inflationary (positive) GDP gap • Demand-pull inflation LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-24 FIGURE 12-8 An Increase in Aggregate Demand that Causes Demand-Pull Inflation Price level AS P2 P1 AD2 AD1 0 GDPf GDP1GDP2 Real domestic output, GDP LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-25 12.6 Changes in Equilibrium • Decreases in AD: Recession and Cyclical Unemployment • Deflation, a decline in the price level, is a rarity in the Canadian economy • Real output takes the full brunt of the decline in AD because product prices are “sticky” in the short run • LO6 Recessionary (negative) GDP gap © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-26 12.6 Changes in Equilibrium Reasons for downward price stickiness: • • • • • • • LO6 fear of price wars menu costs wage contracts morale, effort, & productivity minimum wage menu costs fear of price wars © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-27 FIGURE 12-9 A Decrease in Aggregate Demand that Causes a Recession Price level AS b P1 a c P2 AD1 AD2 0 GDP1 GDP2GDPf Real domestic output, GDP LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-28 12.6 Changes in Equilibrium •Decreases in AS: Cost-Push Inflation • Effects of a leftward shift in AS are doubly bad • output decreases • price level increases LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-29 FIGURE 12-10 A Decrease in Aggregate Supply that Causes a Cost-Push Inflation Price level AS2 AS1 b P2 P1 a AD 0 GDP1 GDPf Real domestic output, GDP LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-30 12.6 Changes in Equilibrium •Increases in AS: Full Employment with Price-Level Stability • Increases in AD should normally lead to inflation • In the late 1990s, productivity growth has shifted the longrun AS curve to the right • Economy slowed down in 2001 due to a substantial fall in investment spending • During 2002-2006 economy rebounded but followed by the recession of 2008-2009. LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-31 FIGURE 12-11 Growth, Full Employment, and Relative Price Stability AS1 Price level P3 AS2 b P2 P1 c a AD2 AD1 0 GDP1 GDP2 GDP3 Real domestic output, GDP LO6 © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-32 The LAST WORD Stimulus and the Great Recession in the American versus the Canadian Economy • Aggregate demand stimulus helped to prevent the 2008-2009 downturn from becoming another Great Depression. • The US economy entered a recession in 2007, following the housing collapse. • To stimulate aggregate demand • The Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates • The federal government used fiscal policy • In the US, real GDP fell by 4.7% and unemployment rate rose from 4.6% to 10.1%. • In Canada, GDP fell by 2.7% and unemployment rate rose from 6.1% to 8.7%. • After the recession, GDP growth was higher and unemployment rate was lower for Canada. © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-33 Chapter Summary LO12.1 Define aggregate demand (AD) and explain how its downward slope is the result of the real-balances effect, the interest-rate effect, and the foreign-trade effect. LO12.2 Explain the factors that cause changes (shifts) in AD. LO12.3 Define aggregate supply (AS) and explain how it differs in the immediate short run, the short run, and the long run. LO12.4 Explain the factors that cause changes (shifts) in AS. LO12.5 Discuss how AD and AS determine an economy’s equilibrium price level and level of real GDP. LO12.6 Describe how the AD–AS model explains periods of demand– pull inflation, cost–push inflation, and recession. © 2016 McGraw‐Hill Education Limited 12-34