The Future of China
1. Party
2. Economy
3. Political Development
1. The Party
Ideology
Confucius
Mao
Deng
221 BC-1911
1949-76
1978--
Deng Xiaoping Theory
1. “socialist market economy”
2. Priority on economic development
(1982 speech)
3. Nationalism: Return China to its
rightful powerful position
4. CPC Leadership
15th Party Congress 1997
• “Hold High The Great Banner of Deng
Xiaoping Theory for an All-Round
Advancement of the Cause of Building
Socialism with Chinese Characteristics into
the 21st Century.”
• Deng Xiaoping Theory becomes official
16th Party Congress 2002
(for reference only)
Politburo Standing Committee Changes
3rd Generation 1997-2002
1. General Secretary Jiang Zemin (President) as
leader Jiang is both a reformer and conservative
2. Li Peng (Chair NPC) leader of conservative faction
3. Zhu Rongji (Premier) a leader of reformer faction
4. Li Ruihuan, pro-reform
5. Hu Jintao, middle of the road, to hedge his bets
6. Wei Jianxing
7. Li Langing
4th Generation PSC: 2002
(for reference only)
4th Generation 2002-2007
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
General Secretary Hu Jintao (President) (chosen by Deng
Xiaoping as Jiang’s successor)
Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC) (ally of Jiang)
Wen Jiabao (Premier) (ally of Hu)
Jia Qinglin (strong ally of Jiang)
Zeng Qinghong (strongest ally of Jiang, but seems to have
become more independent in power)
Huang Ju (Vice premier) (strong ally of Jiang)
Wu Guanzheng (ally of Jiang)
Li Changchun (ally of Jiang)
Luo Gan (protege of Li Peng)
4th Generation PSC 2002-2012
(reference)
4th
Generation
16th Party Congress 2002
1. General Secretary Hu
Jintao (President)
2. Wu Bangguo (Chair NPC)
3. Wen Jiabao (Premier)
4. Jia Qinglin
5. Zeng Qinghong
6. Huang Ju
7. Wu Guanzheng
8. Li Changchun
9. Luo Gan
4th Generation
17th Party Congress 2007
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Hu Jintao
Wu Bangguo
Wen Jiabao
Jia Qinglin
Li Changchun
Xi Jinping****
Li Keqiang***
He Guoqiang
Zhou Yongkang
4th Generation to 5th Generation
(for reference only)
4th Generation
5th Generation
17th Party Congress 2007
18th Party Congress 2012
1. Hu Jintao
1. Xi Jinping
2. Wu Bangguo
2. Li Keqiang
3. Wen Jiabao
3. Zhang Dejiang
4. Jia Qinglin
5. Li Changchun
4. Yu Zhengsheng
6. Xi Jinping
5. Liu Yunshan
7. Li Keqiang
6.
Wang
Qishan
8. He Guoqiang
7. Zhang Gaoli
9. Zhou Yongkang
Xi Jinping (2012-2022)
• The most powerful leader since Deng?
• Consensus choice
• as the core leader
• anti-corruption
• Patriotic loyalty
• Crackdown on dissent
and alternative ideas
Current Factional Battles
Princelings (Xi)
vs.
Shanghai faction (Jiang Zemin)
vs.
Communist Youth League faction (Hu Jintao)
2. The Economy
• Can economic growth last forever?
– Recession
– depression
• What happens when the economy slows
down?
Economics and Politics
economic
growth
political
support
economic
downturn
political
change
Political Impact of the Great Depression
advanced
welfare state
(Europe, N. Am.)
economic
collapse
political
upheaval
World
War II
fascism
(Germany,
Japan, Italy)
Political Impact of the
1997 East Asian Crash
Incumbents lose:
S. Korea, Taiwan,
Thailand, Philippines
economic
crisis
political
upheaval
Soft authoritarian
survival
Malaysia, Singapore
Dictator overthrown:
Indonesia
3. Political Development
Political Stability
• Priority on stability
• Village Elections
• Social Unrest (“mass group incidents”)
The Questions?
• Can you create politically agnostic capitalists?
• How long can people remain politically
agnostic?
Two Models for China’s Future
1. Singapore
“Guided Democracy”
Soft Authoritarianism
2. Taiwan
Democratic Transition
1. Singapore as a model
• Lee Kuan Yew
• Internal Security
Act
2. Democratic Transition Model
demands for
political
freedom
Economic freedoms
Economic growth
Growth of middle class
Exposure to diverse ideas
Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberaldemocracies
Wealth in private hands
Time
Taiwan and South Korea
Democratic Transitions in 1980s
Democracy is not as boring as you think
Introducing Legislation
Filibuster
Taipei 101
Democratic Transition Model
demands for
political
freedom
Economic freedoms
Economic growth
Growth of middle class
Exposure to diverse ideas
Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberaldemocracies
Wealth in private hands
Time
Democratic Transition Model
Economic freedoms
Economic growth
demands for
political
freedom
economic/political crisis
Growth of middle class
Exposure to diverse ideas
Exposure to middle class and elites of Liberal-democracies
Wealth in private hands
Time
Scenarios
1. Peaceful evolution to Democracy
2. Political Economic Crisis leads to rapid
change
1. Another crackdown
2. CPC debate leads to reform
1. Revolution from above
2. CPC becomes two parties
3. CPC debate leads to its collapse
4. CPC debate leads to hardliners imprisoning
pragmatists: rollback
Priorities
1. Stability
2. Economic Growth
3. Chinese Power