New Orleans-visit to Gothenburg 28/5 2015
1. Vulnerability and Adaption to Heat in Cities:
Perspective and Perceptions of Adaptation
Decision-Makers in Sweden, case Gothenburg
2. Guidebook for Integrated Assessment and
Management of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Anna C. Jonsson
Dept. of Environmental Change
Some drivers of (climate) vulnerability
Demography
Locality
Health
Life
style
Socioeconomy
adaptive capacity …
- 134tkr
134tkr - 318tkr
318tkr -
Brämaregården
Kvillebäcken
Income distribution
Lundby, Gothenburg
2009, 20-64 years
Kärrdalen
Sannegården
Slätta Damm
Lundby
Göteborg
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
sensitivity …
Brämaregården
24
Kvillebäcken
31
Kärrdalen
Illness indicator
Lundby 2010
16-64 år
21
Sannegården
24
Slätta Damm
34
Lundby
26
0
20
Genomsnitt antal sjukdagar per person och år
40
Wilhelmi and Hayden (2010)
Are Swedes vulnerable to heat?
Climate change effects in Sweden:
wetter, warmer, wilder
Daily mean temperatures
above 68 F
increased mortality
(Rocklöv et al 2008)
Adaptation to heat in Sweden?
Earlier approaches
Epidemology, GIS, statistics and manuals
sensitivity …
Brämaregården
24
Kvillebäcken
31
Kärrdalen
Illness indicator
Lundby 2010
16-64 år
21
Sannegården
24
Slätta Damm
34
Lundby
26
0
20
Genomsnitt antal sjukdagar per person och år
40
Earlier approaches
Epidemology, GIS, statistics and manuals
… and adaptive capacity
- 134tkr
134tkr - 318tkr
318tkr -
Brämaregården
Kvillebäcken
Income distribution
Lundby, Gothenburg
2009, 20-64 years
Kärrdalen
Sannegården
Slätta Damm
Lundby
Göteborg
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Earlier approaches
Epidemology, GIS, statistics and manuals
(Botkyrka, 2011)
THE VULNERABILITY FACTOR CARD GAME
• Used in research: (Jonsson and Lundgren, 2014).
• Tried out in five focus groups in City of
Gothenburg
–
–
–
–
–
“Hard planners”
“Soft planners”
Staff in child care
Staff in elderly/health care
Elderly
THE VULNERABILITY FACTOR CARD GAME
• Tool to study the Perspective and
Perceptions of Adaptation Decision-Makers
• Boundary object to facilitate bottom-up
deliberations on vulnerability and
adaptation strategies
• Educational game
Structure and basic idea of the tool
Wilhelmi and Hayden (2010)
Demographic
cards
Female
Male
0-5 years
5-15 years
15-25 years
25-35 years
35-45 years
35-65 years
65-80 years
80- years
Vulnerable demographic groupsI
Women1–9
Elderly1–7,9–16
Young children1–3,5,6,9–14,16
Socio-economic cards
Social welfare
Low income
High income
Unemployed
Lack of resources
Low education
High education
No car
Owns a car
Socio-economically
vulnerable groups
Low income1–6,8,10–15,17
Poverty1–3,7–10,12,13,15,16,18
Unemployment1–
5,8,11,13,16,17
Lack of resources1–
4,6,9,10,15–18
Low education1–4,8,9,11–
13,15–17
No car2,11
Socio-cultural cards
Native
Foreign origin
Social capital cards
Living alone
Living with family
Lack of social networks
Single parent
Large family
Health and lifestyle cards
Disabilities
Heart/Lung disease
Smoker
Overweight
Dependent on health care
services
Socio-culturally vulnerable groups
Immigrants 4,11,14
Language barriers 1,2,4,10,14
Race/ethnicity 1,2,4,10,14
Vulnerable groups with regards to social capital
Living alone/lack of social networks1,2,4–6,11,14–18
Social isolation5,6,11,15,16
Single parents1,2,4,5,10,14
Large families1,5
Vulnerable groups with regards to health and
lifestyle
Diseases or illnesses1–6,9–11,15,16
Disabilites2,4–6,9,11,14
Poor lifestyle6
(1) Cutter et al. (2003), (2) Dwyer et al. (2004), (3) Heltberg et al. (2009), (4) Holand et al. (2011), (5) Kuhlicke et
al. (2011), (6) Morss et al. (2011), (7) Rey et al. (2009), (8) Siddiqi. (2011), (9) Balbus & Malina. (2009), (10) Rød
(2012), (11) Buscali et al. (2011), (12) Johnson. (2009), (13) Johnson. (2012), (14) King & MacGregor (2000), (15)
Reid et al. (2009), (16) Willhelmi & Hayden (2010), (17) Cutter et al. (2008), (18) Engle (2011)
Create two
vulnerable persons
35
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze
effect of
heat wave
Identify
adaptation
measures
91-92F
Air temperature (oC)
30
25
Radiation temperature
2010-05-23, 15:00
20
38F
15
10
21−Jul−94 22−Jul−94 23−Jul−94 24−Jul−94 25−Jul−94 26−Jul−94 27−Jul−94 28−Jul−94 29−Jul−94
Create two
vulnerable persons
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze
effect of
heat wave
Identify
adaptation
measures
Create two
vulnerable persons
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze
effect of
heat wave
Identify
adaptation
measures
Create two
vulnerable persons
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze
effect of
heat wave
Impact cards
Death
Hospitalization
Illness
Loss of income
Loss of assets
Reduced wellbeing
Other effects?
When?
Identify
adaptation
measures
Create two
vulnerable persons
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze
effect of
heat wave
Adaptation responses
Identify
adaptation
measures
Results
• Svea, Sven and the others
Focus group
“Hard planners”
“Soft planners”
Staff in child care
Staff in elderly/health
care
Elderly
Females
Harriet***
Svea***
Jane*
Astrid**
Raija***
Age
Above 80 years
Above 80 years
0-5 years
65-80 years
65-80 years
Socioeconomic
status
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Foreign origin,
Low income,
High education level
Lives alone,
Low education
Lives with mother and
father,
Foreign origin,
Low income (family),
Own car (family)
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Low income,
Owns a car
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Foreign origin and
problems with language,
Low income,
Low education level
Health and
lifestyle
Limited mobility,
Overweight
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Overweight
Disability in family
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Smoker and lung disease,
Leg ulcers,
Overweight
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Diabetes,
Overweight
Impact
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Reduced,
wellbeing/Morbidity
Loss of assets,
Morbidity/hospitalisation
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Males
Harald
Sven***
John*
Sture**
Richard*
Age
30-45 years
45-65 years
30-45 years
Above 80 years
45-65 years
Socioeconomic
status
Single-parent,
High income,
Owns a car
Homeless and in social
isolation,
Unemployed with low
income (welfare),
Low educational level,
Does not own car
Single-parent,
Normal income,
Outside worker
Lives alone in social
isolation,
High income and economic
resources,
Does not own a car
Lives alone,
High income,
Owns a car
Health and
lifestyle
Cardiovascular disease
Smoker
Smoker
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease
Cardiovascular disease,
Smoker
Impact
Reduced wellbeing
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Loss of income,
Reduced
wellbeing/Morbidity
Morbidity/ possibly
hospitalisation
Loss of assets,
Reduced
wellbeing/Morbidity
* Person gets ill during heat wave ** Person becomes ill and is hospitalised during heat wave *** Person dies during heat wave
Focus group
“Hard planners”
“Soft planners”
Staff in child care
Staff in elderly/health
care
Elderly
Females
Harriet***
Svea***
Jane*
Astrid**
Raija***
Age
Above 80 years
Above 80 years
0-5 years
65-80 years
65-80 years
Socioeconomic
status
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Foreign origin,
Low income,
High education level
Lives alone,
Low education
Lives with mother and
father,
Foreign origin,
Low income (family),
Own car (family)
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Low income,
Owns a car
Lives alone in social
isolation,
Foreign origin and
problems with language,
Low income,
Low education level
Health and
lifestyle
Limited mobility,
Overweight
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Overweight
Disability in family
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Smoker and lung disease,
Leg ulcers,
Overweight
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease,
Diabetes,
Overweight
Impact
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Reduced,
wellbeing/Morbidity
Loss of assets,
Morbidity/hospitalisation
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Males
Harald
Sven***
John*
Sture**
Richard*
Age
30-45 years
45-65 years
30-45 years
Above 80 years
45-65 years
Socioeconomic
status
Single-parent,
High income,
Owns a car
Homeless and in social
isolation,
Unemployed with low
income (welfare),
Low educational level,
Does not own car
Single-parent,
Normal income,
Outside worker
Lives alone in social
isolation,
High income and economic
resources,
Does not own a car
Lives alone,
High income,
Owns a car
Health and
lifestyle
Cardiovascular disease
Smoker
Smoker
Limited mobility,
Dependent on healthcare,
Cardiovascular disease
Cardiovascular disease,
Smoker
Impact
Reduced wellbeing
Morbidity/hospitalisation,
Mortality
Loss of income,
Reduced
wellbeing/Morbidity
Morbidity/ possibly
hospitalisation
Loss of assets,
Reduced
wellbeing/Morbidity
* Person gets ill during heat wave ** Person becomes ill and is hospitalised during heat wave *** Person dies during heat wave
Results: distribution of
vulnerability drivers
Harriet
Svea
Astrid
Raija
Sture
Sven
female
old
Jane
homeless
child
Harald
John
Richard
male
middle age
Results: impacts
Harriet
Svea
Astrid
Raija
Sture
Death
Hospitalization
Jane
Sven
Reduced, wellbeing
Illness
Harald
John
Richard
Loss of income
Loss of assets
Reduced wellbeing
Results: adaptation strategies
at different levels
Harriet
Svea
Astrid
Raija
Sture
Sven
Harald
John
Richard
• water, ice cream, salt, clothing
• open window, fan/AC, shades
• adjust medication, remind about drink and
food, stay indoors, keep moving/keep still
• increased support from care sector, special
heat-person at each elderly care institution,
increase knowledge, access to hostel
• plan city for cool places
Jane
• Play with water or ”slow” activities
• Develop emergency plans for heat
• Design playgrounds for shade
• water, clothing
• Plant greenery
• AC/fan, shades, take car to nice location,
search for shade and cool place
• better local planning for heat
Results: learning trough talking
• Enthusiastic! ”like a Hollywood movie”
• A lot of knowledge is already there:
discussions articulate the problem area
• Numerous suggestions of measures
– Short and long term
– For individuals, operational and strategic level of
municipality
– From personal and professional experience
Discussion
• Victims and heroes(?)
• Moral judgements
• Budget restrictions
• Blind spots
• Because of overlay of vulnerability drivers:
Relevance of inter-sectionality perspective
“The only problem we have in Kota is parking!”
(city planner Kota, 2012)
Spinn-offs?
Included in advice for City of Gothenburg
Could be used as an educational tool
• to increase knowledge about climate
change impacts
• to identify preventive adaptation
measures and increased adaption
capacity
New Orleans-visit to Gothenburg 28/5 2015
1. Vulnerability and Adaption to Heat in Cities:
Perspective and Perceptions of Adaptation
Decision-Makers in Sweden, case Gothenburg
2. Guidebook for Integrated Assessment and
Management of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Anna C. Jonsson
Dept. of Environmental Change
Background
• Long experience of participatory research and
collaborative modelling
• Long range of projects in climate vulnerability
and adaptation using participatory techniques
• Why not put them together in a toolbox!?
Dept. of Environmental Change
Tools for integrated vulnerability assessment
(old) IPCC definition of vulnerability
a combination of
exposure, sensitivity and
adaptive capacity
to various risks
Vulnerability and adaptation to
climate change
Figur 1. Analytiskt ramverk för integrerad sårbarhetsbedömning (baserad på Füssel och Klein, 2006).
Bilaga 3. Jonsson, A.C., Glaas, E., André, K. och Simonsson, L. CSPR Report 11:01
Toolbox – Swedish version (2011)
Bilaga 3. Jonsson, A.C., Glaas, E., André, K. och Simonsson, L. CSPR Report 11:01
A Guidebook for Integrated Assessment and
Management of Vulnerability to Climate
Change (Wilk et al 2013)
www.cspr.se
Getting
started
Assessing
vulnerability
Managing
vulnerability
The toolbox helps to…
• Scan the most important vulnerability factors
• Sift mosquitoes from elephants without drowning in
information on specific conditions
• Identify need for more data
• Identify the adaptation measures, both “soft” and
“hard”
• Understand how climate change interacts with social
change
• Identify which places, sectors, activities and groups
that are vulnerable
Getting
started
The process is based on a sequence of
participatory exercises that facilitate a
structured analysis of vulnerability across
three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity
and adaptive capacity.
Assessing
vulnerability
It combines qualitative and quantitative approaches
to vulnerability assessments.
Managing
vulnerability
The process culminates
in a concrete action plan
outlining steps for
implementing strategic
actions including clear
delegation of
responsibility and
realistic time plans.
Spinn-offs?
Designing climate-smart water adaptation strategies
Kota, India and Cochabamba, Bolivia
2012-2014
• CSPR, Linköping University, Sweden
• Technoscience, Blekinge University, Sweden
Centro A.G.U.A., University of San Simon, Bolivia
• University of Kota, India
Kota, India
Population: 1,500,000
Cochabamba, Bolivia
Population: 1,000,000
Rajasthan
Bolivia
Workshop sequence in India
WS1
WS1
Challenges
and Chances
WS2
Handling
Climate
impacts
Local
Sensitive
Groups
WS3
Facilitating
factors and
barriers,
synergies
and
conflicts
Step by step
action plan
A process for co/learning on climate change and its effects
Cause
Problem
Open dam
barrages
Heavy rain
Flood
Construction
in flood prone
areas
Insufficient
Blocked
urban
nallas
greenery
Urban
sprawl
Hard
surfaces
Land value
Side effects
Remedy
Water
returning
walls
Diversion
channels
Cleaning
nallas
Heat
tolerant
plants
Plantation
along roads
Careful dam
opening
Early
warning
Pacca nallas
6% green in
all areas
Roof-top
horticulture
Plant
distribution
+Reduced heat
-Reduced groundwater recharge
Toolbox soon at Swedish
Climate Adaptation Portal
http://www.klimatanpassning.
se/atgarder-beta
Toolbox used by Norrkopings
municipality in the Decision
Arena at LiU
THANK YOU!
Thank you!
anna.c.jonsson@liu.se
Jonsson and Lundgren (2014).
Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: Perspectives and
perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden.
Local Environment.
Introduction:
climate change and
its effects
3+3-hours training of
care team
Existing checklists
and guides
(elderly, ill, children)
in April/May
Heat wave
warnings
Create two
vulnerable persons
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze effect
of heat wave
Identify
adaptation
measures
Awareness
Increased knowledge
Vulnerability profile
for each patient
Adapted routines
and checklists
Introduction:
climate change and
its effects
3+3-hours training of
Available data on
local impacts
in connection to
new master plan, MP
urban planners
Available data on
vulnerable groups
Create two
vulnerable persons
Available
recommendations on
heat stress prevention
measures
Expose them
to heat wave
Analyze effect
of heat wave
Identify
adaptation
measures
Awareness
Increased knowledge
Identification of
hot spots
Integration of heat
stress prevention
measures in MP