OIL INDUSTRY Submitted by: Group 2 Ericha Hartz, Brandon Riley, Chris Sherrod, Tyler Hester TABLE OF CONTENTS OIL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW ..................... Error! Bookmark not defined. INTRODUCTION .........................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. SEGMENTS ..................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ................................................................................... 1 RELEVANT GOVERNMENTAL OR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS .................... 3 ECONOMIC INDICATORS RELEVANT FOR THIS INDUSTRY ............................ 2 TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS ...................................Error! Bookmark not defined. PORTER’S FIVE FORCES ........................................................................ 3 THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS ............................................................... 3 ECONOMY OF SCALE................................................................................................. 3 WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS ..................Error! Bookmark not defined. PROPRIETARY PRODUCT DIFFERENCES .............................................................. 6 ABSOLUTE COST ADVANTAGES ...........................Error! Bookmark not defined. BRAND IDENTITY ......................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. ACCESS TO DISTRIBUTION ...................................................................................... 6 EXPECTED RETALIATION ........................................................................................ 7 SUPPLIERS .................................................................................................. 7 SUPPLIER CONCENTRATION ................................................................................... 7 ACCESS TO CAPITAL ................................................................................................. 8 ACCESS TO LABOR..................................................................................................... 9 BUYERS .......................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. BUYER INTERVIEW ...................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS .......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. RIVALRY ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. DEGREE OF CONCENTRATION AND BALANCE AMONG COMPETITORSError! Bookmark not defined. DIVERSITY AMONG COMPETITORS......................Error! Bookmark not defined. INDUSTRY GROWTH RATE (PAST AND PROJECTED)Error! Bookmark not defined. FIXED COSTS TO VALUE ADDED ..........................Error! Bookmark not defined. INTERMITTENT OVERCAPACITY ..........................Error! Bookmark not defined. GROWTH OF FOREIGN COMPETITION .................Error! Bookmark not defined. CORPORATE STAKES................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. EXIT BARRIERS ..........................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. CONCLUSION ............................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS ................................Error! Bookmark not defined. PROGNOSIS .................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. APPENDICES ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. OIL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Understanding an industry such as the Oil industry takes more than just googling the title ‘Oil Industry’. You have to understand all parts of the industry or the ‘Porter’s Five Forces’. These Five forces are Buyers, Suppliers, Threat of New Entrants, Threat of Substitutes, and Rivalry. One would have to separate each force from one another and comprehend them individually. The oil industry Buyers are the channels of distribution for the industry, and focus on the primary intermediaries between the industry and consumer. Suppliers are a party that provides goods/services for whatever is needed by the oil industry. Threats of New Entrants/Suppliers stand for competitors in the same industry copying or trying to out-do a single competitor. Now, the Five Forces cover almost all the information needed, but you need to also understand the macro-environment/socio-economic. The Macro-Environment are situations that occur in the economy not particular section. An Industry is made up of Macro-environment and Porter’s Five Forces, and understanding all of these forces gives one an understanding of the threats and opportunities of an Industry. Group 2 is looking at the Oil Industry and more specifically Exxon Mobil. After an understanding of the Exxon Oil Industry, a decision can be made towards choosing to enter or not enter the Industry. SEGMENTS From Exxon’s 10k during 2014 it states its segments. “Their principal business is energy, involving exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, manufacture of petroleum products and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products” (http://quote.morningstar.com/stock-filing/AnnualReport/2014/12/31/t.aspx?t=XNYS:XOM&ft=10-K&d=a276e6651b8944c4a53559ff05b5a981). All of the Porter’s Five Forces and macroeconomic environment information cover each of these segments. Energy and the production/exploration of crude oil and natural gas is covered in the macroeconomic section. Transportation and manufacturing of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products is covered in the selling/buying sections. All are explained in depth and create a full understanding of the oil industry and their segments. SOCIO-ECONOMIC RELEVANT GOVERNMENTAL OR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS Governmental and environmental factors include political and regulatory developments. Exxon operations are affected by access limitations, restrictions on doing business, lack of legal certainty, regulatory and litigation risks, security concerns, climate change and greenhouse gas restrictions, and government sponsorship of alternative energy. Access limitations include countries who limit (or place as off limits) their oil and gas resources. The restriction of imports/outputs on certain resources is common as well. Restrictions on resources are when, “laws prohibiting U.S. companies from doing business in certain countries” (http://corporate.exxonmobil.com). Next, lack of legal certainty is when there is not a clear legal code for U.S companies to follow with different countries. Unpredictable actions can put our business at risk. This leads into regulatory and litigation risks which are “We remain exposed to changes in law (including changes that result from international treaties and accords) that could adversely affect our results, such as increases in taxes or government royalty rates (including retroactive claims); price controls; changes in environmental regulations or other laws that increase our cost of compliance or reduce or delay available business opportunities (including changes in laws related to offshore drilling operations, water use, or hydraulic fracturing); adoption of regulations mandating the use of alternative fuels or uncompetitive fuel components; government actions to cancel contracts or renegotiate terms unilaterally; and expropriation” (http://corporate.exxonmobil.com). Now, of course there are the security concerns. These concerns are terrorist threats, local concerns, etc. These events cause more expenses paid towards security and possibly shut down operations. Finally, the climate change/greenhouse gas restrictions and the governmental factor of government sponsorship of alternative energy. It is more competitive to be energy proficient, so the government is making major research efforts toward making a better carbon footprint. Exxon makes the statement that they and other countries have adopted “regulatory frameworks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These include adoption of cap and trade regimes, carbon taxes, restrictive permitting, increased efficiency standards, and incentives or mandates for renewable energy” (http://corporate.exxonmobil.com). ECONOMIC INDICATORS RELEVANT FOR THIS INDUSTRY “The demand for energy and petrochemicals correlates closely with general economic growth rates. The occurrence of recessions or other periods of low or negative economic growth will typically have a direct adverse impact on our results” (http://corporate.exxonmobil.com). As stated from the quote above, the economy really affects the oil industry. A recession causes changes in oil pricing because it decreased demand. People may not be able to completely cut back, but by carpooling or investing in hybrid cars can majorly affect the oil industry. TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS There are new structures and oil drilling equipment that result in cleaner transferring and less likely for oil spills. Technological factors can determine if Exxon is the leader or their competitors are. “Many governments are providing tax advantages and other subsidies and mandates to make alternative energy sources more competitive against oil and gas. Governments are also promoting research into new technologies to reduce the cost and increase the scalability of alternative energy sources. We are conducting our own research efforts into alternative energy, such as through sponsorship of the Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University and research into hydrogen fuel cells and fuel-producing algae. Our future results may depend in part on the success of our research efforts and on our ability to adapt and apply the strengths of our current business model to providing the competitive energy products of the future. See “Management Effectiveness” below” (http://corporate.exxonmobil.com). There is also an innovation of the U.S. Shale production technology that is used. “According to the United States Department of Energy, the capital costs of a 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m3/d) ex-situ processing complex are $3–10 billion.[60] The various attempts to develop oil shale deposits have succeeded only when the shale-oil production cost in a given region is lower than the price of petroleum or its other substitutes.” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil_extraction). The graph that follows shows the different extraction technique of shale production technology. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil_extraction). PORTER’S FIVE FORCES THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS ECONOMY OF SCALE Oil industry has a high barrier to entry. New entrants are not existent because the industry is so huge. The threat of new entrants is unlikely/low for the fact that the industries are so large and developed. The industry is unattractive because it is hard to get into, maintain, make a profit, and succeed against well-known competitors. “The Mining/Crude-Oil industry, Petroleum Refining, and Chemicals industries as a group are very attractive because the threat of new entrants is low, buyer power is low, supplier power is high (which is good because most of the big industry players are both suppliers and buyers), and the threat of substitutes is low. The attractiveness of the industry is reduced because business rivalry is high.” (http://www.pardontheinformation.com/2008/06/why-are-oil-companies-so-profitable.html). There are major investment requirements, drilling rights, real estate, appealing to other corporations and governments. These are just some of the cost associated with entering the oil industry. A Financial report of Exxon Mobile is below: Years Ended December 31, Sales and other operating revenue (2) (2) Sales-based taxes included Net income attributable to ExxonMobil Earnings per common share Earnings per common share assuming dilution Cash dividends per common share Total assets Long-term debt 2012 (1) 2011 2010 2009 (millions of dollars, except per share amounts) 2008 453,123 467,029 370,125 301,500 459,579 32,409 33,503 28,547 25,936 34,508 44,880 41,060 30,460 19,280 45,220 9.70 8.43 6.24 3.99 8.70 9.70 8.42 6.22 3.98 8.66 2.18 333,795 7,928 1.85 331,052 9,322 1.74 302,510 12,227 1.66 233,323 7,129 1.55 228,052 7,025 (http://quicktake.morningstar.com/stocknet/secdocuments.aspx?symbol=xom)(http://quote.morni ngstar.com/stock-filing/Annual-Report/2012/12/31/t.aspx?t=XNYS:XOM&ft=10K&d=c41e0968c8f04de7a385d6af35759798) This financial report shows how many millions of dollars it takes year to year to be involved in the oil industry, and the debt that comes along with it. Also the debt alone shows how difficult it is to have an already known profitable business maintain profit. Capital alone makes the oil industry have a high barrier of entry. Economies of scale do in fact exist in the oil industry. “Oil and gas company executives excel at selecting and planning capital projects, but they struggle to streamline the finances that support these investments. According to an Economist Intelligence Unit survey of 427 senior executives taken in October 2010, oil and gas respondents cited predicting the long-term costs (47%), assessing their return on investment (ROI; 37%) and effectively managing cash flow over the lifecycle of a project (37%) as their greatest challenges in delivering capital projects.” (http://www.worldoil.com/uploadedfiles/media/whitepapers/ppm_us_en_wp_econscale.pdf). “Oil and gas companies maximise cost and time savings in their replication projects by standardising materials so they can take advantage of volume discounts, and by optimising process steps to speed delivery and reduce human error. According to Mr Wetselaar, Shell standardises components, modules and even complete platform solutions, and often works with a single supplier for all projects to drive volume savings across the business.” (http://www.worldoil.com) This document found, describes the economy of scale by how the oil and gas industry cuts costs through replication. Also, with the recent drop in barrel and unit costs some may think that threat of new entrants is high and the barrier low, but that is not the case. The low unit/barrel costs is due to the supply and demand of oil. (http://www.vox.com/2015/1/5/7493799/oil-prices-chart) Yes, replication and the recent surplus in 2015 of oil leads to the idea that threat of new entrants is high and the barrier is low, but one still has to keep in mind maintaining profit. As shown from the graph above supply and demand vary yearly, and next year’s obstacles are ultimately unknown. This industry being so supply and demand sensitive based on profit make threat of new entrants low and barrier of entry high. As an industry it is profitable for the already developed oil industries, but to join would be very difficult and expensive. The oil industry to outsiders is unattractive, but to those already in the industry such as Exxon it is attractive. WORKING CAPITAL REQUIREMENT There is a lot of capital held up in maintaining an oil rig. But, the prices vary each day with how much a barrel is worth to know if a company is breaking even, making a profit, or losing money. Millions of barrel can be filled a day, but they need a buyer and a price to know the profit or non-profit made/lost. (http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=1y) ABSOLUTE COST ADVANTAGES Exxon has copyright over their name and oil. They have to follow legal obligations of emission controls, settlement and jurisdiction, or excesses emissions of volatile organic compounds. “The threat of new entrants is low because barriers to entry include high capital cost, economies of scale, distribution channels, proprietary technology, environmental regulation, geopolitical factors, and high levels of industry expertise needed to be competitive in the areas of exploration and extraction. In addition, fixed cost levels are high for upstream, downstream, and chemical products. Thus, it is very hard for new players to enter the market” (http://www.pardontheinformation.com). BRAND IDENTITY Brand identity is important to oil industries. Oil is already an environmental hazard when used and admitted, so the industry is watched closely. For instance when BP had the oil spill, their brand identity was tarnished. It is important to not be the brand that is associated to negative effects. Critical to market share and viability ACCESS TO DISTRIBUTION Exxon has their own plant that extracting oil from natural resources below sea level. Then, once filtered they barrel and distribute through planes, trains, and automobiles to deliver barrels. Exxon has vertical integration distribution and distributes to franchise gas stations or ones owned by them. “The word vertical integration describes a style of management control. The oil industry has always been fertile ground for analysis of the reasons and effects vertical integration. One reasons of this popularity is that the stages of production are easily differentiated. The general perception is that Integration is a prerequisite for success of the company as the oil industry is populated by large Integrated companies that makes "excessive" profits” (http://www.ukessays.com/essays/commerce/a-case-study-for-vertical-integrationcommerce-essay.php). EXPECTED RETALIATION Any retaliation against Exxon would be cheaper prices in oil which leads to cheaper prices in gasoline. Competitors that come in and may leave quickly are because they come in with low prices and cannot support to run a business. New entrants do not have the brand loyalty Exxon customers have to their gasoline. SUPPLIERS SUPPLIER CONCENTRATION The suppliers of the oil industry include metal pipe and tube manufactures, pump and compressor manufactures and oil and gas field services. The suppliers of the oil industry are considered the upstream segment of the industry, also referred to as the exploration and production (E&P) sector. Oil wells are the main concern of the suppliers; where to locate them, how to design, construct, operate and manage them to deliver the greatest possible return on investment with the lightest, safest, smallest operational footprint. (http://www.ektinteractive.com/introduction-oil-gas/what-is-upstream/) Metal pipe and tube manufactures produce welded, riveted and seamless pipes or tubes from purchased iron or steel. The manufactured products serve as drill pipes and pipe casings. Steel is purchased as a primary input material in the metal pipe and tube manufacturing process. (http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/default.aspx?entid=103) Tenaris SA, which holds 16.0% of the market share, is a major player in the metal pipe and tube manufactures. .(http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/majorcompanies.aspx?entid=573#MP908) Oil and field gas services provide oil drilling services on a fee or contract basis. Major players in this sector include Baker Hughes Incorporated holding 9.5 % of market share, Schlumberger Limited 10.8% and Halliburton Company 13.2%. (http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/default.aspx?entid=141) Pump and compressor manufacture pumps and compressors for general use. The major player in this industry is Ingersoll Rand, holding 5.0% of market share. This segment uses raw material, including steel. (http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/default.aspx?entid=719) Presence of Substitute Inputs The supply of steel in the oil and gas industry is critical. From construction to production to transportation steel is used in every phase of the oil production cycle. There is no substitute metal that can replace use of steel in the industry. Thus, the steel industry is a key player in the supply chain of oil and gas. United Steelworkers, North America’s largest industrial union plays a pivotal role in the cost and production of oil. Since there is no substitute for steel, this union can create havoc for oil companies and their supply chain process. ACCESS TO CAPITAL Over the next five years, this industry is expected to grow. With the rising output of natural gas, increasing oil and natural gas prices will continue to drive the industry’s financial performance. IBIS World predicts that the industry revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4% reaching $458.3 billon. Contributing factors to this increase include: the industry focus to contain cost, and exploration and production becoming more efficient as globalization evolves. From 2010-2014 the inflation rate has averaged around 2%. This would indicate that capital can be accessed at an attractive rate, thereby giving supplier’s power. http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/industryoutlook.aspx?entid=103 http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/ Table 1 shows the percentage industry revenue increases/decreases compared to revenue increases/decreases for ConocoPhillips and Chevron Corporation. Industry Revenue vs. ConocoPhillips and Chevron 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 2009 2010 2011 Industry Revenue % Growth 2012 2013 2014 ConocoPhillips % Growth Chevron % Revenue Growth http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/majorcompanies.aspx?entid=103 http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/currentperformance.aspx?entid=103 ACCESS TO LABOR Since 2006, the Bureau of Labor indicates that there is a significant increase in the hourly wage of oil extraction employees. In March, 2006 the average hourly wage of all oil and gas extraction employees was $28.63. In 2014, the average was $40.67. Figure 2 shows the fluctuating wages over the last 9 years. Figure 2: Line graph of average hourly earnings of all employees. The high hourly wage is due to the need of highly skilled and trained employees and the requirement of reliable employees. Employees must be able to endure extreme weather conditions offshore and onshore. http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/industry/operatingconditions.aspx?entid=103 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU1021100003?data_tool=XGtable Supplier power over the industry is high, due to the few suppliers, which results in strong bargaining power. The overall attractiveness of this industry is low due to the large capital required to enter this industry, highly skilled workers used to extract the oil, and the fact the oil industry is a commodity driven market. Decision Matrix for Supplier Power Power Supplier Power High Attractiveness Low Buyers As of June 2012, 123,289 convenience stores sell fuel in the United States, of that only .4% or 471 of those stores are owned and operated by major oil companies. The major buyers are the independent business owners that set up contracts with the oil companies to sell their fuel (www.nacsonline.com). This branding that occurs gives people the misconception that the major oil company owns the convenience store, however in most situations that is not the case. The diagram to the right illustrated the gasoline supply chain, the buyers are the gas stations at the very end of the chain, the rest is done by the major oil companies. About 80% of the fuel purchased in the U.S. in 2013 was from independent convenience store owners. Over the past decade the number of convenience fuel stores has increased by 15% however, a new distributor has been up and coming. Large grocery stores such as Kroger and supermarkets such as Walmart have begun to sell fuel resulting in 12.4% of the fuels purchased in the year 2013(ww.ibisworld.com). This number is expected to increase. The remainder of the fuel sold in 2013 came from stand-alone fuel selling service centers like such you would find at a marina. The primary groups with buying power are the industrial consumers that are downstream, and the independent store owners who set up contracts with the oil company, neither of which have high bargaining power. The shrinking downstream margins give incentive to upstream suppliers to raise prices and lower the supply (http://www.pardontheinformation.com). Individual buyers have low buying power because the demand is always there and the energy prices continue to rise. The price of oil is enforced by the law of supply and demand. Only very large buys of oil such as countries like the United States and China can have and influence over price in this vertically integrated high demand industry. In the graph below, it shows the projected growth rate of gas and oil demand in China, giving them influence over oil prices. The more customers a company has the less buyer power consumers will possess, with that being said, the only power individual consumers have is the willingness to buy. Multinational oil companies such as ExxonMobil and BP partake in the vertical integration channels meaning they are involved in every step of the process from drilling to refining to distributing to company owned retail store. Multinational oil companies don’t have a cost to switching because they are involved with every step of the process, giving power to the oil and gas industry. The high demand for the oil and gas industry provides very little chance for buyers to make competitive pricing moves on suppliers even though a good majority of the population understands how the industry functions. Overall the buyers have little power in this industry due to the high demand and vertical integration of the multinational companies, making this an attractive industry. SUBSTITUTE PRODUCTS In the oil industry there are not a lot of substitute products but there are some. They come at a much greater price. The main two substitute products I have found are biofuels (which can run with the same internal combustion engine just a more pricey option) and hybrid vehicles (totally different makeup of a vehicle that uses petroleum). “Biofuels not only substitute for petroleum but they also can have beneficial impacts on climate change. Ethanol and biodiesel are produced within a relatively closed carbon cycle where carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere during combustion is recaptured by the plant material and used to produce additional fuels. To the extent these biofuels displace petroleum, they reduce CO2 emissions and therefore are more climate-friendly than petroleum” (http://www.rff.org). RELEVENT PRICE/PERFORMANCE RELATIONSHIP OF SUBSTITUTES Hybrid cars come with “the extra cost from the expense of the new, gas-saving technology found in hybrids” (http://auto.howstuffworks.com). Most hybrids cost more than the original price. “Here are a few examples: 2012 Ford Fusion: $20,705 2012 Ford Fusion Hybrid: $28,775 2012 Honda Civic Sedan: $15,955 2012 Honda Civic Hybrid: $24,200 2012 Toyota Camry: $21,955 2012 Toyota Camry Hybrid: $25,900” Biofuel prices are higher than the rest as shown in the graph from U.S. department of energy website http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/prices.html : National Average Price Between October 1 and October 15, 2014 Fuel Biodiesel (B20) Biodiesel (B99-B100) Electricity Ethanol (E85) Natural Gas (CNG) Propane Gasoline Diesel Price $3.81/gallon $4.21/gallon $0.12/kWh $2.88/gallon $2.16/GGE $3.08/gallon $3.34/gallon $3.77/gallon BUYER PROPENSITY TO SUBSTITUTE Benefits are offered with the substitutes of biofuel and hybrid vehicles that make people interested in going green. The options are eco-friendly and are great substitutes when it comes to buying oil. The pricing is what makes oil a more powerful competitor. People spending is the hardest thing to force on a buyer. They think more of their pockets and less on the economy. The industry is an expensive industry when you think of everything involved. From the vehicle to what/how it runs. So competitive substitutes need to be price sensitive to conquer the industry. RIVALRY CONCLUSION CRITICAL SUCESS FACTORS After understanding and breaking down the Macro-Environment and each of the Porter’s Five Forces our group was then able to do SWOT analysis. Mainly we’ve learned of the oil industry and Exxon’s opportunities and threats. Opportunities Exxon has are new products, capacity expansion, and increase demand for oil/petroleum. Some threats are Hybrid vehicles limiting demand and water/air/land contamination concerns. PROGNOSIS The prognosis we came to, when wondering if to enter the industry, is to not enter the Oil Industry. This industry is not only expensive to start up, but to maintain as well. Also, there is such a high barrier to entry, which means it would be extremely difficult to even enter/succeed in this industry. There is also new technology that reduces the need for oil/oil rigs, so the industry is becoming less attractive to want to join. All together a company such as Exxon in the Oil Industry can be successful and profitable, but that is because of them being well-known, having recognition, properties, legal contracts, etc. The Oil Industry is a complicated industry from governmental and environmental factors, to capital factors. To enter this industry would be extremely difficult. Not to mention gaining suppliers and buyers as an unknown and new company. 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