World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Old Stone 7 Age 8 New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age 6 Modern Age Middle Ages 2000 Future 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1 Black Death —The Plague 1900 1800 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). © 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History First Billion Second 130 (1930) 30 (1960) Third Fourth (1800) 15 (1975) Fifth 12 (1987) Sixth 12 (1999) Seventh 14 (2013) Eighth 14 (2027) Ninth 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Annual Increase in World Population Millions 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Billions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Less Developed Regions 3 2 1 0 1950 More Developed Regions 1970 1990 2010 2030 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau 2050 Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods 87 90 80 83 80 2 79 76 76 75 1.8 72 1.4 60 1.2 Millions 50 1 40 0.8 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 0 0 19801985 19851990 19901995 19952000 Net population added per year 20002005 20052010 20102015 20152020 Annual population growth rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Percent increase per year 1.6 70 Notes on Trends in Population Growth Worldwide • This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. • Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). • From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Population Clock 2005 Natural Increase per More Developed Countries World Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries (less China) Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587 Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004 154 2 151 137 Minute Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Projected Population Change, by Country Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Stage 4 Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population 40 35 30 25 20 Natural Increase 15 10 5 0 1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Birth rate Death rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide • Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. • Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow. • Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005 China, Macao Special Administrative Region China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Ukraine Czech Republic Slovakia 0.84 0.94 1.12 1.17 1.20 Slovenia 1.22 Republic of Korea 1.23 Republic of Moldova 1.23 Bulgaria 1.24 Belarus 1.24 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Women of Childbearing Age Number of Women 15 to 49 Billions 1.98 2.06 1.76 1.32 0.86 0.62 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Women of Childbearing Age • The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion. • Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections. • The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility Worldwide 3 6 2.0 2 2.0 Billions 1.8 4 3 1.3 0.9 1 2 0.6 1 0 0 1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050 Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Children per woman 5 Notes on Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility • The number of women in their childbearing years has increased since the 1950s and is projected to continue to increase to 2050. • The number of children per woman has declined since the 1950s and is projected to continue to decline. • Even though women have on average fewer children than their mothers, the absolute number of babies being born continues to increase because of the increases in the total number of women of childbearing age. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Population in Countries With Low Fertility Decline or Growth, 2005-2050 Percent Country (average number of children per woman) Thailand (1.7) 13 10 China (1.6) Armenia (1.3) -6 -11 -23 8 Trinidad & Tobago (1.6) Italy (1.3) Russia (1.4) Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Population in Countries With Low Fertility • All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing—the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050. • This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman 8.5 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.4 6.2 5.3 5.2 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.4 Egypt India 2.5 2.1 Indonesia Iran 1970-1975 Pakistan 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Turkey Yemen Patterns of Fertility Decline Average number of children per woman 10 8 Uganda 6 Kenya 4 Colombia 2 South Korea 0 1950–1955 1960–1965 1970–1975 1980–1985 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau 1990–1995 2000–2005 Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman 7.3 7.0 6.4 5.6 5.7 5.4 2.0 1.9 Azerbaijan Chile 2.1 Iran 1960-1965 2.0 1.9 Mauritius Thailand 2000-2005 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau 2.0 Tunisia Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years 82 80 77 76 72 65 67 75 65 49 Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean 2000-2005 More Developed Regions 2045-2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau World Notes on Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region • In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. • Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. • Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Trends in Urbanization, by Region Urban Population 85 Percent 82 76 74 61 55 54 53 47 42 37 37 29 17 15 World Africa Asia 1950 2000 Latin America and the Caribbean More Developed Regions 2030 Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Trends in Urbanization, by Region • Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent. • By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Largest Cities, Worldwide Millions 1950 2000 2015 36 34 21 17 11 23 18 12 8 London Tokyo New York Sao Mexico Tokyo Paulo City Delhi Mumbai Tokyo (Bombay) Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Largest Cities, Worldwide • The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions. In 1950 the three largest cities were in more developed countries; by 2000, only Tokyo remained in the top three. • In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million. By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Urbanization in Central America Population Living in Urban Areas Percent 64 62 60 49 39 39 49 47 60 48 36 29 Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala 1970 Honduras Nicaragua Panama 2010 Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Urbanization in Central America • Central American countries are urbanizing rapidly, at a pace similar to that of their South American neighbors 20 years earlier. Sixty percent or more of the population in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Panama is projected to be urban by 2010; the projection for Central America as a whole is 71 percent. • South America has nearly the highest rate of urbanization of any world region, projected to achieve 84 percent by 2010 (virtually tied with Northern Europe). © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Age Distribution of the World’s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age Male 300 200 100 Female 0 100 200 300 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male 300 100 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Female 100 300 Notes on Age Distribution of the World’s Population • Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries. • Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15. • Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. • Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Trends in Aging, by World Region Population Ages 65 and Older Percent 21 14 11 10 7 6 3 World 10 6 4 Africa Asia 2000 Latin America and the Caribbean More Developed Regions 2025 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Trends in Aging, by World Region • By 2025, over 20 percent of the population in more developed regions will be ages 65 and older. • By 2025, one-tenth of the world’s population will be over age 65. • Asia will see the proportion of its elderly population almost double, from about 6 percent in 2000 to 10 percent in 2025. In absolute terms, this represents a stark increase in just 25 years: from about 216 million to about 480 million older people. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Women and Aging Projected World Population, by Sex, at Specified Age Groups, 2025 Percent 50 50 All Ages 37 46 63 54 Ages 60+ Women Ages 80+ Men Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects:The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Women and Aging • The figure above depicts what demographers refer to as the feminization of aging. Although women make up half of world population, by the end of the next quarter century, they will account for more than half (54 percent) of people ages 60 and older, and 63 percent of very old people (80 and older). © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Adult Literacy, by Region Literacy Rates, by Sex, 2000-2004 Percent 89 87 91 86 77 70 55 53 World 77 73 Sub-Saharan Latin America Africa and the Caribbean Female Asia Arab States Male Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics: accessed online at www.uis.unesco.org/TEMPLATE/html/Exceltables/education/Literacy_Regional_April2006.xls on May 21, 2006. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Adult Literacy, by Region • Nearly all men and women in more developed regions can read and write. • However, literacy rates are lower in the less developed regions. Women’s literacy rates in particular vary significantly by region: from 53 percent in sub-Saharan Africa, to 73 percent in Asia, to 89 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. • Overall, more men than women are literate. This is especially striking in the Arab states, where more than three-fourths of men but about half of all women are literate. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Ratio of Workers to Dependents, by Region 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 Africa 1990 Asia 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Latin America and the Caribbean Note: People 15 to 64 are considered to be workers; people 14 and younger and those over 65 are considered to be dependents. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries 1997-2004* Physicians per 1,000 people Cuba 5.9 Greece 4.4 U.S. 2.3 Jordan 2.0 1.6 China Mexico 1.5 Bolivia Bangladesh Cambodia Mali 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 * Data are for the most recent year available for each country. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Notes on Availability of Doctors, Selected Countries • Population growth can affect a country’s capacity to address the health needs of its people through trained personnel and accessible health facilities. • Access to health services varies greatly from country to country. In Greece, for example, there are 4.4 doctors for every 1,000 people. • This is over 20 times higher than in Cambodia, which has only 0.2 doctors for every 1,000 people. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau