Making the Case for
CTE: What the
Research Shows
James R. Stone III
University of Louisville
National Research Center for
CTE
My Grandkids will be competing
against…
In a very, very flat world
Context for the Conversation
 Three perspectives on labor market
trends
 Impact of 30 years of education
“reform”
 Evidence of CTE’s impact on student
engagement, achievement and
transition to careers and college
The Problem
The Labor Market
STEM: Let’s clarify . . .
 S&E occupations make up only about one-
twentieth (5%) of all workers (5.3% in 2018), Urban
Institute, 2007
 435,000 U.S. citizens and permanent residents a
year graduated with bachelor's, master's, and
doctoral degrees in science and engineering. Over
the same period, there were about 150,000 jobs
added annually to the science and engineering
workforce. .
http://www.businessweek.com/print/smallbiz/content/oct2007/sb20071025_
827398.htm
Is there a shortage of
scientists?
Murray said that none of the companies she has talked with
has suggested that there is a shortage of qualified chemists
or life scientists. She said that employers’ greatest concern
“is not numbers, it is training.” She cited the example of
managers who told her they could interview hundreds of
candidates for an organic chemistry position but wish they
knew how to identify those candidates who “can behave
collaboratively” and have the other broad competencies
discussed at the workshop. She argued that the degree to
which scientists have these other capabilities “really seems
to be the problem.”
National Research Council. (2008). Research on Future Skill Demands: A Workshop Summary. Margaret
Hilton, Rapporteur. Center for Education, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.
Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
High Growth Occupations 2010-2020
Veterinarians
Pile-Driver Operators
Mental Health Counselors
Medical Scientists
Cost Estimators
Stonemasons
Health Educators
Audiologists
Bicycle Repairers
Dental Hygienists
Physical Therapists
Brick masons
Marriage & Family Therapists
Market Research/Analysts
Medical Secretaries
Interpreters
Glaziers
Physical Therapy Aide
Occ Therapy Asst
Medical Diagnostic Tech
Event Planners
Plumber's Helpers
Physical Therapy Asst
Rebar workers
Vet Tech
Carpenter's Helpers
Construction Helpers
Biomedical Engineer
Home Health Aides
Personal Care Aides
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Another
Perspective
Sub-Baccalaureate Credentials
Pay Off
27% Of PS
Credential Programs
earn more than
Bachelor’s Degrees
45%
40%
35%
43%
30%
25%
20%
43%
15%Of PS
Credential Programs
earn10%
more than
5% Degrees
Associate
0%
27%
31%
31% Of all
credentials &
associate degrees
Licenses and Certificates EarnearnAssociates
more thanEarn More Than:
More Than:
bachelor’s degree
Associates
Bachelors
Why Technical Education
Matters
Credential Growth
50%
31% 24%
45% 43%
40%
Labor
Market
Demand
B
Labor
Market
Demand
25%
25%
41.7
50
20%
30%
40
15%
20%
30
10%
10%
20
5%
15%
5%
1%
10
0%
0%
2001-12
Associates
Master's
Bachelor's
Doctorate
Vedder, R., Denhart, C., Robe, J. (2010).
Why are recent college graduates unemployed
0
28.6
1970
5%
0%
2010
Taxi Drivers
2010 w/ BA/BS
Sales Clerks
College Graduate Supply
Janitors
College Graduate Demand
Too Many College Grads?
 …turning out vastly more
college graduates than
there are jobs in the
relatively high-paying
managerial, technical and
professional occupations
to which most college
graduates traditionally
have gravitated.
 Roughly one of three
college graduates is in jobs
the BLS says require less
than a bachelor's degree.
Richard Vedder, director of the Center for
College Affordability and Productivity WSJ
6/21/2012
 . … College graduates, on
average, are smarter and
more disciplined and
dependable than high-school
graduates—so much of the
reported earnings differential
has little to do with college
learning.
 We have engaged in massive
and costly credential inflation
to certify competency for
jobs.
Not Enough College Grads?
By 2020, our research projects that
the United States may have 1.5 million
too few workers with college or
graduate degrees and 6 million more
without a high school diploma than
employers will demand. McKinsey Global Institute,
2012
College for all? Only 40% of 27-year olds have earned an
A.A. degree or higher
What about the 60%?
What about career
development for the 40%
college completers ?
Note: Represents data collected in surveys between 2006-2008; GED is approximation based on data from GED Testing Program.
Source: Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.
A 3rd Disconcerting Perspective
Computers now exhibit
human-like capabilities
not just in games such as
chess, but also in
complex communication
such as linguistic
translation and speech
(Think Siri)
A 3rd Perspective: The Race
Against the Machine (The Machines are Winning?)
 The Google car(truck?)
 IBM Watson
 Deep Blue
 The “Square”
 Text readers/ Pattern
recognition (goodbye legions of
lawyers-only 60% accurate)
 Automated ‘call centers’
(goodbye India)
 GeoFluent (goodbye translators)
 Vending machines for
… everything
Can People Win?
 Instructional methods
 Khan Academy
 Softer skills
 CTSOs/WBL
 Instructional focus
 Hyperspecialists,
entreprenuership
 The Human Advantage (for
now)
 Physicality of work
 Advanced pattern recognition
 General problem solving
 Creativity
Rigor = More
A narrow curriculum
High school has become the new middle school
Where Have We Been: 30
Years of “Reform”
Getting students ready for careers and college :
Their
future
Academic
Technical
Mathematics
Science
Communications
Occupational
SCANS
21st Century Skills
“Soft” Skills
Employability Skills
Job specific
skills valued by
employers
College & Career
Ready
 Required skills
Context: Since the mid-1980s
we have:
 (NAEP) Reading scores
Added the equivalent of
have not improved or
one full year of core
academics (math, science, significantly declined*
language arts) to high
 (NAEP) Science scores
school graduation
have not improved or
requirements.
significantly declined*
 (NAEP) math scores have
remained relatively
unchanged
*Depends on the starting and ending timeframe
Taking more math is no
guarantee
 Only 26% of students who took Alg I, II & Geometry
scored a 22 (ACT Benchmark) on the ACT exam
scoring an average of 17.71
 Adding Trig increases to the average score to 19.91
 Not until calculus is added, does the average score
exceed 22 – 5 years of high school math.
 43% of ACT-tested Class of 20051 who earned A or
B grades in Algebra II did not meet ACT College
Readiness Benchmarks in math2
1. ACT, Inc (2004) Crisis at the Core
2. ACT, Inc. (2007) Rigor at Risk.
College Ready Math:
Liberal Arts Majors’ Math Requirements
• Rutgers
• University of
Minnesota
• UC-Berkeley
• One course in college-level
mathematics.
• One course, (Mathematical
Thinking)
• Test out (basic understanding
and competency in math,
statistics, or computer
science) or 2-unit course.
One solution?
Be born to smarter parents!
It is not just the kids who struggle
It is not getting much better
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
US Trails 22 Nations in HS Completion
The United
oncetothe
world leader
in highYour
child isStates,
less likely
graduate
from high
school than
completion,
now
trails
22 other
you were;
the
United
Statesleading
is now
HS
Completion
Trend*
industrialized
countries
that
have
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the
only industrialized
country
where
young
rates higher
than
the than
American
rate of 72
people
are less
likely
their parents
to per
earn
according to a report released last week by
acent,
diploma
the
Organization
for Economic
Cooperation
and
71.7
74.7
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71.0
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Houston
Chronicle, Libby Quaid, 10/23/08
Development.
1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Chronicle of Higher Education (December 4, 2008)
*NCES, 2012
A System’s Approach
Career & College Readiness
To Address College & Career Readiness: Make High School Matter
Increase
Engagement
Completing HS
Completing PS/
Industry credential
Improve
Achievement
Academic
Occupational
Technical
Enhance
Transition
Through School
To continuing
education
To the workplace
To a successful
adulthood
Finishing High School: A Necessary First
Condition
for College OR Careers
 Plank (2001) found CTE a significant factor in reducing
the likelihood of dropping out of high school (NELS 88
data): a 1:2 ratio
 Plank, DeLuca, & Estacion (2005) found CTE a significant
factor in reducing the likelihood of dropping out of high
school (NLSY97): a 1:2 ratio
 Castellano, Stone, Stringfield & others
(2007) found CTE course taking in 3 high
poverty communities significantly increased
the likelihood of high school graduation (NRC longitudinal
data).
CTE Keeps Kids in School
1.2
1
NS
A Survival
Analysis
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
NS=Statistically not significant
• CTE Participation helps students “survive” high school
• Each CTE credit taken (at 3 or more) reduces the hazard of
dropping out compared to students taking less than 3 CTE
credits
Engagement: We have a boy problem
… but many of the people
who don’t fit in are boys.
A decade or so ago,
people started writing
books and articles on the
boy crisis. At the time,
the evidence was
disputable and some
experts pushed back.
Since then, the evidence
that boys are falling
behind has mounted. The
case is closed. The
numbers for boys get
worse and worse.
 By 12th grade, male reading scores are
below females’
 11th grade boys write at an 8th grade girl
level
 Boys used to have an advantage in math
and science, but that gap is nearly gone.
 Boys are more likely to have discipline
problems
 Boys account for ¾ all D’s and F’s
 Men are a minority in college (40%)
 2 million fewer men graduate from
college over the past decade than women
David Brooks, NYT July 5, 2012
 Grad school gap is even higher
CTE Keeps Boys in School!
1.2
NS
1
A Survival
Analysis
NS
0.8
Male
0.6
Female
0.4
0.2
0
NS=Statistically not significant
Age
9th-Grade GPA
3+ CTE credits,
No Focus
3+ CTE cr with
Focus
• CTE Participation helps boys “survive” high school
• There is no CTE “survival” effect for girls;
but it “does no harm”
Not Just Our Work:
Economists’ Perspective
“There is one approach that does tend to
improve graduation rates and labor market
earnings, especially for at-risk youth: high-quality
career and technical education (CTE)”
Holzer, H.J., Lane, J.I., Rosenblum, D.B. & Andersson, F. (2011). Where are all
the good jobs going.
Engaging Students through
Career Development
Employment: Career Advancement
Continuing Education and Lifelong Learning
Postsecondary: Career Preparation
Achieving credentials: college, certification, apprenticeship, military
9-12: Career Preparation
Academics and technical courses, intensive guidance, individual graduation plans
Grade 8: Transition
Choosing a health career focus (can change easily at any time later)
6-8: Career Exploration
Discovering interest in health careers - Begin Individualized Graduation Plan
K-5: Career Awareness
Introduction to health careers
Pedagogic Tools
for World Class CTE
 Classroom instruction
Project based learning
 Contextualized learning
 Labs
 Shops
 Job shadowing
 Work based learningWBL
 Internships
 School-based enterprise
 Cooperative education
 Apprenticeships
 Leadership development
 Professional development
 CTSOs
 Service/social engagement
 Competitive events
Engaging Students through
Relevant Classroom Instruction
Curriculum Integration
Experimental Research
(Instructional)
 Math-in-CTE: complete
 Technical Assistance – 7 yrs
 Literacy-in-CTE: complete
 Technical Assistance – 2 yrs
 Science-in-CTE:
 Study recently concluded
What We Learned:
Experimental Test of Math Integration
 Students in the experimental classes scored
significantly higher on Terra Nova and
Accuplacer
 The effect: 71st percentile & 67th percentile
 No negative effect on technical
skills
 11% of class time devoted to
math lessons
enhanced
What We Learned:
Experimental Test of Science
Integration
Reading
Science
 Two approaches tested
 Overall, no effect
 Both significantly improved
 Significant effect for nonwhite
reading scores
 Students of teachers’ with two
years of PD significantly
out performed
all
groups
males and females
Link to the Common Core
Standards
 Core academic skills that students need to succeed in a
changing, globally competitive world include not just
mastering core content but also performance skills such as:




Ability to think critically and solve complex problems
Work collaboratively
Communicate effectively
Learn how to learn (e.g., self-directed learning)
 Academic content knowledge and these performance skills
are inextricably linked—impossible to have one without the
other (often referred to as “deeper learning”)
 Common Core State Standards reflect this link
40
The Occupational Expression of
Academics
A career ready person is proficient in the core academic
subjects, as well as in technical topics. This foundational
knowledge base includes competence in a broad range of
academic subjects grounded in rigorous internationally
benchmarked state standards… Career Readiness Council 2012
Math-in-CTE Curriculum Map: Health Science
CTE Course/Unit
Patient assessment
CTE Concepts
Input/output;
Vital signs;
Height/weight;
Conversions;
Instrument
reading
Math Concepts
Reading
measurement; Basic
operations;
Ratio/
Proportion; Solving
equations;
Scales
Common Core
Math
Standards Middle
School
Common Core
Math Standards
High School
6.NS.2; 6.NS.3;
7.NS.1; 6.RP.1;
6.RP.2; 6.RP.3;
7.RP.1; 7.RP.2;
7.RP.3; 6.EE.2;
7.EE.3
A.APR.1; A.APR.7;
N.RN.3; N.Q.1;
G.MG.3; A.CED.4
http://www.nrccte.org/professional-development/math-cte/curriculum-maps
Integration Framework:
Learning about an Industry
Distributed
The
IGP/ICP
Guidance
Math
CTE
Social
Studies
ELA
Science
(AAI)
Pedagogic Tools
for World Class CTE
 Classroom instruction
Project based learning
 Contextualized learning
 Labs
 Shops
 Job shadowing
 Work based learningWBL
 Internships
 School-based enterprise
 Cooperative education
 Apprenticeships
 Leadership development
 Professional development
 CTSOs
 Service/social engagement
 Competitive events
Engaging Students
through
Work-Based Learning
Adding value to the
high school
experience
WBL: Combining Work &
Learning
100
80
60
40
20
0
Class Based
Work Based
Workbased Learning
WBL Approach
Potential Learning







 All aspects of an industry-
Labs
curriculum integration
Shops
Job shadowing
Internships
School-based enterprise
Cooperative education
Apprenticeships
 Service Learning
 Relevance of academics
 SCANS/21st Century Skills
 Skills leading to industry
certifications
 Career development
•Developmental
•Increasing intensity
•Linked to industry recognized credentials
Everywhere but in the U.S. . . .
 The % of youth in VET ranges from 5% (Ireland) to
80% (Czech Republic).
 More than 50% youth in VET: Austria, Belgium,
Finland, Switzerland, Australia, Germany, Sweden,
Denmark and others.
 Japan, United Kingdom, France, Korea and others
exceed 20%
 The U.S. doesn’t make the list!
Learning for jobs (OECD, 2010)
The Value of WBL
Nations enrolling a large proportion of uppersecondary students in vocational programs that
include heavy does of WBL have significantly higher:
 school attendance rates
 higher upper-secondary completion rates
 college attendance
Bishop & Mane, 2004
CTE-WBL and Achievement
 No WBL; 2.99
 HS WBL; 3.08
college GPA
college GPA
 No community
 Community
service; 3.02
college GPA
service; 3.11
college GPA
 58% with NO HS
 64% of with HS
WBL; college GPA
above 3.0
WBL; college GPA
above 3.0
Swail, Watson S., and Kampits, Eva (2004). Work-Based Learning and Higher
Education: A Research Perspective. Washington, DC: Educational Policy
Institute, Inc.
CTE & Transition
To the workplace, to continuing education
True Measures of College &
Career Readiness
Meta Analysis CTE Participation &
College Enrollment: Average Effects
3
2.5
Results from all studies
show a positive effect of
1.67(p=.00)
2
The studies with
methodological and/or
statistical controls show a
positive effect of 1.66
(p=.02)
1.5
1
0.5
0
Effect Size
All Studies
Studies with Controls
Meta Analysis CTE Participation & Employment
Results from all studies
show a positive effect of
2.57(p=.00)
3
2.5
2
1.5
The studies with
methodological and/or
statistical controls show a
positive effect of 1.49
(p=.00)
1
0.5
0
Effect Size
All Studies
Studies with Controls
The good news: This is CTE’s Time
Career & Technical Education
Programs
of Study/
Career
Pathways
College and
Career Ready
High Quality CTE
PFT
Evidence-Based Policy for 21st Century CTE
 Rigorous Programs/Curriculum (Such as):







Programs of Study (early NRCCTE evidence)
Career academies – some evidence
Toyota model of AMT – early evidence
HSTW – strong correlational evidence
Project Lead the Way – strong internal evaluations
NCEE Board Examination Model-new
Linked Learning (CA)-early evidence
 Effective Pedagogy:




Integrated learning
Dual/Concurrent Enrollment
Entrepreneurship
Work based learning
 Systems Approach
 Vertical & Horizontal Integration
 Robust Career Development
 Link to stackable industry credentials
 Professional Development
High
School
Community
College or .
..
Business &
Industry
Key points
• Secondary CTE keeps kids in school, especially boys
• High quality, secondary CTE enhances academic
achievement; can support CCSS; improves transition to
postsecondary
• Effective CTE requires intensive and extensive career
development beginning no later than middle school
• Effective CTE requires effective teachers; professional
development
• Effective CCR preparation requires a systems approach:
– Vertical integration: high school & postsecondary & employer
– Horizontal integration: academic & CTE; CTE & academic
– Internal integration: authentic, contextualized learning
High school is the last education
opportunity paid for wholly by the public.
It’s purpose has to be to do the best it can
to provide all who leave it the foundation
necessary to enter, or further prepare for,
adult life.
Barton, 2006
Shameless Promotion . . .
VISIT OUR WEBSITE OR SEND ME
A NOTE
www.nrccte.org
James.stone@nrccte.org