Urbanized-MM5 urban-climate simulations of Houston-Galveston Bob Bornstein* R. Balmori and H. Taha Dept. of Meteor., San Jose State Univ. San Jose, CA USA for copy of ppt: *pblmodel@hotmail.com presented at 6th ICUC Göteborg, Sweden 12-16 June 2006 OVERVIEW • Introduction – MM5 – Urbanized uMM5 • Houston uMM5 Urban Ozone-Study – GC/Synoptic influences – Gulf & Bay breezes – Urban-climate effects • Current • After tree-planting – Ozone-transport patterns • Future Work Urbanization Techniques • Urbanize subsurface, surface, UCL, SBL, & PBL: momentum, thermo, & TKE Eqs • From forest-canopy model (Yamada 1982) • Veg param replaced with urban (GIS/RS) terms – Brown and Williams (1998) – Masson (2000): urban-canyon energy-budget – Martilli et al. (2001): urban+PBL in TVM – Dupont et al. (2003): Martilli + EPA/MM5 (for Ching) UPC – Taha et al. (2005): LU/LC + UPC uMM5 From EPA uMM5: Within Gayno-Seaman PBL/TKE scheme Mason + Martilli (by Dupont) Roughness approach Sensible heat flux Rn pav Hsens pav LEpav Drag-Force approach Net radiation Latent heat flux Storage heat flux Anthropogenic heat flux Precipitation Ts roof roof natural soil Qwall Ts pav Gs pav Tint Paved surface bare soil Surface layer water Drainage outside the system Infiltration Drainage network Drainage Root zone layer Deep soil layer Diffusion Martilli et al. 3 new-terms in each prog. PBL eq. e.g., Momentum ↓ Building: vol & sfc area Advanced urbanization scheme from Masson uMM5 inputs as f (x, y) land use (38 categories) roughness elements anthropogenic heat as f (z, t) building heights paved surface-fractions building drag-force coefficients building height-to-width, wall-to-plan, & impervious-area ratios building frontal, building plan, & rooftop area-densities ε, cρ, α, etc. of walls and roofs UCP-inputs (1 km grid) Houston: Ching & Burian (2006) Building plan area fraction Building frontal area index Wall-to-Plan area ratio Height-to-Width ratio Brown & Williams: urbanized meso-met model TKE(z) hc =building top max urban effect uMM5 Houston Runs: 22-26 August 2000 • Model configuration • • – 5 Domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km – (x,y) grids: 43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141 – s-levels: 29 in Ds1-4; 49 in D5; lowest ½ s = 7 m – 2-way feedback in D1-4 – 96 CPU 4.5 hr for a 24 hr simulation Physics options > Grell Cu in D1-2 > ETA or MRF PBL in Ds 1-4 > Gayno-Seaman TKE PBL in D5 > Simple ice > Urbanization in D-5 > NOAH LSM > RRTM radiation Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis + ADP obs > Burian LIDAR building-data in D5 > Byun LU/LC modifications Houston Galveston emissions: 2nd most O3-polluted US city SHIP CHANNEL AREA Houston-Galveston refineries & chemical plants: along Galveston Bay ship-channel (Source: Byun 2003) Episode-day Synoptics: 8/25, 12 UTC (08 DST) H 700 hPa Dz = 30 m H Surface Dp = 4 hPa 700 hPa & sfc GC H’s: at weakest (no gradient) over Texas meso-scale forcings (sea-breeze & UHI-convergence) dominate Concurrent NNRP fields at 700 hPa & sfc H Dz = 30 m H Dp= 2 hPa NNRP-inputs to MM5 (as IC/BC) captured GC/synoptic location & strength of NWS-H (on previous slide) MM5 can thus do well (Bornstein 2006) L D-1 D-2 L D-3 MM5: episode day, 3 PM > D–1: reproduced weak GC p-grad & V > D-2: new weak coastal-L > D-3: (well formed) L along-shore V Domain 4 (3 PM) : L off of Houston on high O3 day (25th) L Episode day L uMM5 Domain 5 sfc-winds at 3 PM: 4 successive days H C Episode day: off-shore L along-coast V warm-inland high O3 25 Aug (episode day) 1500 UTC (same as last slide) Tx2000 HGA (gridded) HGA Observed winds at different-scales: alongshore flow O3 Interval: 5 ppb (00-16 UTC) & 10 ppb (>16 UTC) L C > 02 UTC: UHI Con > O3: urban-L + weak left-over H H H 17 UTC: Bay Breeze + Ship Channel max + Houston Heat-pump 23 L H H 21 16 18 19 H 18 UTC: urban L (titration) L Note: early stagnation 17 15 14 UTC 23 UTC Gulf Breeze & trajectory of O3 max Urban-effects on night-(non UHI, as wet rural soil) speeds (D-5): z0 speed-decreases (m/s) over urban-centers + + - uMM5 -+ + + + V - + Obs + Daytime UHI (wet rural soil) urban-induced convergence & acceleration 08/24/00 C C C uMM5 Gridded Obs Along–shore V came from Cold-Core L: D-3 MM5 vs Obs Temps H H C 18 UTC, Cold-core L (only 1-ob) & Urban area (blue-dot clump) seems to retards cold-air penetration! MM5: produces coastal cold-core low D-5 uMM5-MM5 UHI at 8 PM on 21 Aug H H C Upper + L: MM5 UHI = 2.0 K Upper R: uMM5 UHI = 3.5 K Lower L: uMM5-MM5 = 1.5 K stronger UHI Blob is LU/LC error 8/23 Day UHI: obs vs uMM5 (D-5): 2-m Temps H UHI Cold UHI C Obs: 1 PM uMM5: 3 PM Base-case veg (0.1s): urban-min of current tree -cover Modeled increase tree-cover ( 0.01s): • urban reforestation • rural deforestation Run 14 (urban-reforestation) minus Run 13 (base case): 4 PM 2-m ∆T (K) > reforested urban-areas are cooler > surrounding deforested rural-areas are warmer W’er C’er W’er DUHI(t): Base-case minus Runs 15-18 Urban temp difference between runs 0.4 run14-run13s run15-run13s run16-run13s 0.2 run17-run13s run18-run13s RURAL Tdiff (K) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 URBAN Max-impact of –0.9 K of a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which 1.5 K was from uMM5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 LST • UHI = Temp in Urban-Box minus Temp in Rural-Box • Runs 15-18: urban re-forestation scenarios • DUHI = Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI max effect, green line • Reduced UHI lower max-O3 (not shown) EPA emission-reduction credits $ saved 12 16 Houston Summary • NNRP captured GC forcing for MM5: weak High • uMM5 captured the thus strong observed meso effects – – – – – – • Weak offshore Low Ship-Channel (large source area) stagnation Sequential Bay and Gulf breezes Urbanization LU/LC characteristics Houston: UHI & heat-pump Urban-V patterns • UHI convergence/acceleration • Roughness deceleration – Ozone transport-processes Urban reforestation – Decreased max-daytime UHI-values – Should thus also decrease max-O3 values FUTURE WORK (1) • Current uMM5 reduced Houston-UHI • reduced: energy use, biogenics, photolosis reduced (?) CAMx/CMAQ O3 EPA emission-reduction credits Update uMM5 inputs – Deep-soil BC-temp to eliminate min-T bias – IC soil-moisture (post rain-storm) to eliminate max-T bias – Satellite SST as f(x,y,t) – Better sea-surface z0 eq. – Dave Sailor Qa via NSF project FUTURE WORK (2) • SJSU/NCAR (Fei Chen) uWRF DTRA proposal – uMM5 scheme – Zilitinkevich: diag SBL-eqs for very stable & unstable conditions – Freedman: prog k-ε PBL eqs – 1-way link to: ER canyon-dispersion models • Downscaled climate-change model-output increased NYC (with Columbia/GISS) > thermal-stress deaths (to NSF) > thunderstorms urban floods (to NSF) > air pollution (to EPA) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • D. Hitchock & P. Smith, State of TX • D. Byun, U. of Houston • J. Nielsen-Gammon, T&M U. • J. Ching & S. Dupont, US EPA • S. Stetson, SWS Inc • S. Burian, U. of Utah • D. Nowak, US Forest Service • Funding from: USAID, NSF, DHS, HARC Houston and uMM5 References • Balmori, R., 2006: Urbanized MM5 study of urban impacts on an • • • • • • August 2000 Houston O3 episode. MS Thesis, Dept. of Met., SJSU. Banta, R. M., et al., 2005: A bad air day in Houston. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 657-669. Byun, D., et al., 2004: Modeling effects of land use/land cover modifications on the UHI and air quality in Houston, Texas. Tech. Note, University of Houston, 55 pp. Dupont, S., et al., 2003: Simulation of meteorological fields within and above urban and rural canopies with MM5. Tech. Rep., US EPA NOAA, ARL, NC, 67 pp. Martilli, A., et al., 2002: An urban surface exchange parameterization for mesoscale models. Boundary-Layer Meterol., 104, 261-304. Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., 2004: The surprising dynamics of the Houston urban sea breeze. Preprints, 84th AMS Conf, Seattle, WA. Taha, H., et al., 2005: UHI alterations from urban-forest changes in Houston: uMM5 model of Aug 2000 O3 episode. SJSU Report to HARC. The End Any Questions?