Ch. 4: Financial Forecasting,
Planning, and Budgeting
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Tujuan Pembelajaran
Mahasiswa mampu untuk:
Menggunakan metode persentase penjualan untuk
meramal kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan
Menjelaskan ketrbatasan metode persentase penjualan
Menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan perusahaan yang
berkelanjutan
Membuat anggaran kas dan menggunakannya untuk
mengevaluasi jumlah dan waktu yang kebutuhan
pembiayaan perusahaan
Memahami jenis-jenis anggaran dan proses penyusunan
anggaran
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Pokok Bahasan
Peramalan keuangan
Keterbatasan Metode Peramalan Persentase
Penjualan
Tingkat Pertumbauhan Berkelanjutan
Perencanaan Keuangan dan Pengaanggaran
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Financial Forecasting
1) Project sales revenues and
expenses.
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Financial Forecasting
Project sales revenues and expenses.
Estimate current assets and fixed
assets necessary to support projected
sales.
Percent of sales forecast
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Percent of Sales Method
Suppose this year’s sales will total
$32 million.
Next year, we forecast sales of
$40 million.
Net income should be 5% of sales.
Dividends should be 50% of
earnings.
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This year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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% of $32m
$8m
$16m
$24m
25%
50%
$4m
$4m
$1m
$6m
$15m
$7m
$2m
$9m
$24m
12.5%
12.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
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Next year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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% of $40m
25%
50%
12.5%
12.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
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Next year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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% of $40m
$10m
$20m
$30m
25%
50%
$5m
$5m
$1m
$6m
$17m
$7m
12.5%
12.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
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Predicting Retained Earnings
Next year’s projected retained earnings = last
year’s $2 million, plus:
projected
–
sales
x
$40 million x
net income
sales
.05
x(1
x
cash dividends)
- net income )
(1 - .50)
= $2 million + $1 million = $3million
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Next year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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$10m
$20m
$30m
$5m
$5m
$1m
$6m
% of $40m
25%
50%
12.5%
12.5%
n/a
n/a
$17m
$7m
$3m
n/a
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Next year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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$10m
$20m
$30m
$5m
$5m
$1m
$6m
$17m
$7m
$3m
$10m
$27m
% of $40m
25%
50%
12.5%
How
much
12.5%
n/a
Discretionary
n/a
Financing
will we
n/a
Need?
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Next year
Assets
Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Liab. and Equity
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses
Notes Payable
Long Term Debt
Total Liabilities
Common Stock
Retained Earnings
Equity
Total Liab. & Equity
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$10m
$20m
$30m
$5m
$5m
$1m
$6m
$17m
$7m
$3m
$10m
$27m
% of $40m
25%
50%
12.5%
How
much
12.5%
n/a
Discretionary
n/a
Financing
will we
n/a
Need?
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Predicting Discretionary
Financing Needs
Discretionary Financing Needed =
projected
total
assets
projected
total
liabilities
projected
owners’
equity
$30 million -
$17 million - $10 million
= $3 million in discretionary financing
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Sustainable Rate of Growth
g* = ROE (1 - b)
where
b = dividend payout ratio
(dividends / net income)
ROE = return on equity
(net income / common equity) or
ROE = net income x sales
sales
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assets
x
assets
common equity
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Budgets
Budget: a forecast of future events.
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Budgets
Budgets indicate the amount and
timing of future financing needs.
Budgets provide a basis for taking
corrective action if budgeted and
actual figures do not match.
Budgets provide the basis for
performance evaluation.
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