Ch. 4: Financial Forecasting, Planning, and Budgeting IIS 1 Tujuan Pembelajaran Mahasiswa mampu untuk: Menggunakan metode persentase penjualan untuk meramal kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan Menjelaskan ketrbatasan metode persentase penjualan Menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan perusahaan yang berkelanjutan Membuat anggaran kas dan menggunakannya untuk mengevaluasi jumlah dan waktu yang kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan Memahami jenis-jenis anggaran dan proses penyusunan anggaran IIS 2 Pokok Bahasan Peramalan keuangan Keterbatasan Metode Peramalan Persentase Penjualan Tingkat Pertumbauhan Berkelanjutan Perencanaan Keuangan dan Pengaanggaran IIS 3 Financial Forecasting 1) Project sales revenues and expenses. IIS 4 Financial Forecasting Project sales revenues and expenses. Estimate current assets and fixed assets necessary to support projected sales. Percent of sales forecast IIS 5 Percent of Sales Method Suppose this year’s sales will total $32 million. Next year, we forecast sales of $40 million. Net income should be 5% of sales. Dividends should be 50% of earnings. IIS 6 This year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS % of $32m $8m $16m $24m 25% 50% $4m $4m $1m $6m $15m $7m $2m $9m $24m 12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a 7 Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS % of $40m 25% 50% 12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a 8 Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS % of $40m $10m $20m $30m 25% 50% $5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m 12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a n/a 9 Predicting Retained Earnings Next year’s projected retained earnings = last year’s $2 million, plus: projected – sales x $40 million x net income sales .05 x(1 x cash dividends) - net income ) (1 - .50) = $2 million + $1 million = $3million IIS 10 Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS $10m $20m $30m $5m $5m $1m $6m % of $40m 25% 50% 12.5% 12.5% n/a n/a $17m $7m $3m n/a 11 Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS $10m $20m $30m $5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m $3m $10m $27m % of $40m 25% 50% 12.5% How much 12.5% n/a Discretionary n/a Financing will we n/a Need? 12 Next year Assets Current Assets Fixed Assets Total Assets Liab. and Equity Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Notes Payable Long Term Debt Total Liabilities Common Stock Retained Earnings Equity Total Liab. & Equity IIS $10m $20m $30m $5m $5m $1m $6m $17m $7m $3m $10m $27m % of $40m 25% 50% 12.5% How much 12.5% n/a Discretionary n/a Financing will we n/a Need? 13 Predicting Discretionary Financing Needs Discretionary Financing Needed = projected total assets projected total liabilities projected owners’ equity $30 million - $17 million - $10 million = $3 million in discretionary financing IIS 14 Sustainable Rate of Growth g* = ROE (1 - b) where b = dividend payout ratio (dividends / net income) ROE = return on equity (net income / common equity) or ROE = net income x sales sales IIS assets x assets common equity 15 Budgets Budget: a forecast of future events. IIS 16 Budgets Budgets indicate the amount and timing of future financing needs. Budgets provide a basis for taking corrective action if budgeted and actual figures do not match. Budgets provide the basis for performance evaluation. IIS 17