SDM hurts your brain!
Yay done. Lots accomplished!!!

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9O6zlcF5_E

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
Alternatives
Objectives
Consequences

Biological Biological/Ecological Commercial/Cultural
Recreational
/Cultural
Historic Ecological

Male, Maldives
1,952 km 2
Population: 92,555
Pop Density: 47, 416 km 2

Migingi Island, Lake Victoria
(Kenya/Uganda)
Population: 131
Area: 0.002 km 2

“The goal of this effort is the preservation of cultural, historic, recreational, and ecological resources on cays in PR and USVI for the continued enjoyment by local people and tourists in balance with conservation of the marine and terrestrial ecosystem of the cays over the next 10-15 years
(operational timeframe), with a longer term (e.g.
2060) conceptual horizon.”

 How to optimize the allocation of resources and actions towards the management of a network of cays to sustainably support the shared landscape scale objectives of many different entities governing cays including private, territorial, and federal agencies and stakeholders.

The region currently lacks a coordinated, multistakeholder, values-based conservation and economic approach that encompasses the US Caribbean and integrates the values and objectives of all the stakeholders to provide a framework that best assures a network of cays able to sustainably support the shared landscape scale objectives.

• Economic benefits to PR
& USVI
• Ecological Integrity
• Recovery of species of interest
• Cultural & traditional resource use
• Historic landmarks & structures
• Tourism and recreational experiences
• Public health and safety
• Operational costs
How we got there
• Enhance the structure and function of the marine and terrestrial ecosystem of the cays to maximize native and endemic biodiversity
• Conserve and enhance the cultural and historical resources associated with cays
• Increase/maximize public satisfaction in coastal communities
• Maximize available resources ($, time, coordination etc.)

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

Day 2


Outlined status quo based on our themes (habitat; populations; fisheries; economic activity; human dimensions, including for hazards; and monitoring) and action elements associated with these
Based on themes and action elements, we selected ecological integrity, cultural/traditional uses, and a balance of all uses and protective measures (for ecological, cultural, historic, and traditional resources) to define our alternatives
Day 3

After the analysis of trade-offs and scoring of the consequences of each alternative, decided to create an additional alternative because both cultural/traditional resource use and ecological integrity scored similarly across all analyses
Day 4
 Created new alternative


Alternative 1: Status Quo
 Existing management actions and plans for cays by owners continue with limited collaboration.

 Alternative 2: Enhancement of cultural and traditional resource use opportunities and enjoyment at cays in PR and USVI
 Strategy to enhance the opportunities for cultural and traditional resource uses on cays through
 outreach and education




 habitat protection for cultural resources construction of low impact facilities that improve access public safety protection of aesthetics monitoring to identify cultural and traditional resourcesand track changes in opportunities, use, and visitor satisfaction.

 Alternative 3: Enhancement of ecological integrity for the marine and terrestrial system of cays in PR and USVI
 Strategy to enhance the ecological integrity, defined as structure and function, of the marine and terrestrial ecosystem of the cays through
 habitat restoration
 visitor management
 improved enforcement of fishing and other environmental protection regulations\
 monitoring to identify ecological resources, track the effectiveness of enhancement and visitor management efforts, and measure changes in the condition of terrestrial and marine ecological resources


Alternative 4: Balancing the use of cultural, traditional, historic, and ecological resources across cays in Puerto Rico and USVI to make everyone smile
 Strategy to balance resource use by local people and tourists while managing for the enhancement of the ecological integrity, defined as improved condition in terms of structure and function, of the marine and terrestrial ecosystem of the cays through


 management of erosion on cays and the main islands limiting of human access to cays during certain times or to certain areas on cays installation of moorings and designation of anchorage areas

 eradication of terrestrial and management of marine invasives increase in the number of concessionaires operating tours and other services

 improved enforcement of environmental regulations sponsorship of the establishment of outdoor classrooms

 collection and dissemination of oral histories designation of use areas


 creation of a certification program for tour operators development of hiking trails and creation of wildlife viewing opportunities improved trash removal
 monitoring to inventory biodiversity and conduct vulnerability and viability assessments for species of concern and evaluate the effectiveness of actions under this strategy

 Alternative 5: Enhancement of cultural and traditional resource use opportunities and protection and enhancement of ecological integrity for the marine and terrestrial system of cays in PR and USVI
 creation of an education and outreach program highlighting ecological, cultural, and traditional resources
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

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 habitat protection and restoration to support ecological and cultural resources creation and implementation of visitor management measures increased enforcement of protective regulations creation and implementation of pollution management strategies increase in system knowledge through monitoring responses to management measures, compiling existing data, and independent research

Objectives
Economic benefits to PR & USVI
Marine Ecological integrity
(structure and function)
Terrestrial Ecological integrity
(structure and function)
Recovery of species of interest
(T&E's, other)
Cultural/Traditional Use
Historical Structures and
Landmarks
Tourism/Recreational
Experiences
Public Health & Safety
Operational costs
Baseline
Goal
Alternative
(status quo)
Portfolio
Alt Strategy
1 (Cultural
Alt Strategy
2 Alt Strategy 3 and
Historical)
(Ecological
Integrity)
(Balanced
Design)
Max
Max
Max
Max
Max
Max
Max
Min
Min
3
24
30
9
3
20
3
2
2
9
29
34
8
4
36
4
1
3
8
59
64
35
3
20
3
1
6
12
37
41
16
4
26
4
2
5
Units
Percent contribution to economic activity
Percent of cays with high integrity
Percent of cays with high integrity
% species > min.
%
0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, 80-
100
0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, 80-
100 popn size
General Satisfaction
(public and concessioners)
% of landmarks with high integrity
0-100
1 to 5
0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, 80-
100
General Satisfaction
(public and concessioners)
Risk to public health & saftey
Cost of implementation
1 to 5
Low, Medium High dollars

NORMALIZED SCORES
Objectives
Economic benefits to PR & USVI
Marine Ecological integrity (structure and function)
Max
Max
Terrestrial Ecological integrity (structure and function)
Max
Recovery of species of interest (T&E's, other)
Cultural/Traditional Use
Historical Structures and Landmarks
Tourism/Recreational
Experiences
Public Health & Safety
Operational costs
Max
Max
Max
Max
Min
Min
Goal
Treatment (Alternatives)
Baseline
Alternative
(status quo)
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological
Integrity)
Alt Strategy 3
(Balanced Design)
Alt Strategy 4 (Study first, then decide)
0.000
0.702
0.609
1.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.000
0.122
0.128
0.113
1.000
1.000
0.900
1.000
0.694
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.182
0.031
0.300
0.464
0.000
0.367
0.340
0.380
0.818
0.383
1.000
0.107
0.164

WEIGHTED SCORES
Objectives Goal
Economic benefits to PR & USVI
Marine Ecological integrity (structure and function)
Max
Max
Terrestrial Ecological integrity (structure and function) Max
Recovery of species of interest (T&E's, other)
Cultural/Traditional Use
Historical Structures and Landmarks
Tourism/Recreational Experiences
Public Health & Safety
Operational costs
Sum of Weights (for all objectives)
Sum of weighted scores (for each alternative)
Final Score (sum of weighted scores/sum of weights)
Max
Max
Max
Max
Min
Min
10
10
10
10
30
90
80
350
Treatment (Alternatives)
Weight
Baseline Alternative
(status quo)
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological Integrity)
Alt Strategy 3 (Balanced Design) Alt Strategy 4 (Study first, then decide)
100
10
0.000
0.000
70.213
1.224
60.851
10.000
100.000
3.673
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
80.000
80.00
0.23
1.277
1.131
10.000
10.000
26.997
90.000
55.517
266.36
0.76
10.000
10.000
1.818
0.308
9.000
41.786
0.000
143.76
0.41
3.404
3.801
8.182
3.833
30.000
9.643
13.103
175.64
0.50
0.00
0.00

1,00
0,80
Baseline Alternative
(status quo)
0,60
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
Weighted Scores showed Ecological and Balanced as preferred
0,40
0,20
0,00
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1
Partial control of ecologically-focused actions
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological Integrity)
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1
Partial control of culturally-focused actions
Baseline Alternative
(status quo)
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological Integrity)
0,80
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
0 0,5 1
Partial control of culturally-focused actions
Baseline Alternative
(status quo)
0,80
0,70
0,60
0,50
0,40
0,30
0,20
0,10
0,00
Baseline Alternative
(status quo)
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1
Partial control of ecologically-focused actions
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological Integrity)
Alt Strategy 1
(Cultural and
Historical)
Alt Strategy 2
(Ecological Integrity)


Since the two strategies (Cultural/Historical and Ecological) did not show much differentiation in the model, we went back and reevaluated them to develop a 5 th strategy that incorporated the overlap and further focused effort in the recommended action.

The next step would be to add in the attribute measures and compare with Status Quo and the other alternatives to see if this one strategy is highly favored.

 Uncertainty in six main process areas
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Linguistic and cultural differences (no common language)
Objective metrics – units
Objective metrics – data sources
Selection of alternative strategies
Weighting for PR and USVI (different island-specific statistics and management styles)
Level of implementation of alternatives
 Uncertainty in two main system areas

Lack of knowledge on whether we know enough about the cay system itself

Environmental variability and stochasticity


It was a fascinating workshop, given what should go into a decision and how seldom SDM is actually applied, it is quite amazing that good decisions are ever made.
 The SDM was particularly valuable for our situation was precisely because of the complexity and intractability of our problem. The SDM approach provided a valuable framework for exploring multiple objectives and integrating several values.


The SDM approach provided a valuable framework for exploring multiple objectives and integrating several values
 Historical management of the cays in the US Virgin
Islands focused heavily on sea bird conservation. More recently with the Coastal Zone Management Plans Areas of Particular Concern (APCs) have been established in both territories that establish management actions for the cays within their boundaries. We will need to crosswalk those and other existing plans.

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The SDM approach allowed us to not only integrate management of this resource spatially but across different levels of governance (e.g. private, territorial, federal agencies) as well.
Much of the information required to effectively manage cays is either lacking or disperse among various stakeholders, for example knowledge about their importance for human uses and biodiversity is frequently lacking, but the PrOACT and in particular the rapid prototyping approach allowed us to overcome those hurdles and move through the entire decision cycle to provide confidence that once we consolidate the data, the process will be effective.
Extensive develop beyond the initial workshop will be needed to bring our conservation strategy for cays in the waters of
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands into reality.

Throughout the process we will upload available supporting data to the CLCC data portal (el CAMPO), create supporting maps and synthetic layers, and identify information / data gaps.
Updating the CLCC
Steering Committee during our next monthly call (March
2015)
Strategically elicit additional technical expertise
Sponsor workshops for targeted stakeholders
As necessary host other workshops focused on alternative analysis and uncertainty modeling
The final framework, document, support layers, and decision tool (el CAMPO) for the cays module needs to be complete by May
2016 in advance of the
Large Landscape
Conservation workshop
(October 2016)
Host “public” workshop with final products, including efforts of dissemination and communications.

Working collaboratively to avoid silent cays

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlY2xx93_Zs

Kasey R. Jacobs, Partnership & Communications Coordinator