Statistics: Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics Section 1-1: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Learning Targets: I will be able to demonstrate knowledge of statistical terms. I will be able to differentiate between the 2 branches of statistics. Vocabulary Statistics Variable Data Random variable Data set Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics Probability Population Sample Hypothesis Testing Statistics The science of conducting studies to collect, organize, summarize, analyze, and draw conclusions from data. Reasons to Study Statistics 1. 2. 3. To be able to read and understand the various studies performed in your field. You might be called on to conduct research in your field. You can use the knowledge to become better citizens and consumers. Variables and Data Variable – a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values Data – values that the variable assumes Random variable – variables whose values are determined by chance Data set – a collection of data values *Each value in the data set is called a data value or datum. Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics The collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data. Example: census results ◦ Info – age, income ◦ Collect – survey ◦ Organize ◦ Summarize Generalizing of samples to populations Performing estimations and hypothesis tests Determine relationships among variables Making predictions ◦ Present – graphs, charts, tables The 2 Branches of Statistics Vocabulary for Inferential Stats Probability – the chance of something happening Population – all subjects being studied Sample – a group of subjects selected from the population Hypothesis testing – decision making process for evaluating claims about a population, based on information obtained from samples APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 1-1 Answers to Applying the Concepts 1-1 The variables are grades and attendance. The data consists of specific grades and attendance numbers. 3. These are descriptive statistics. 4. The population under study is students at Manatee Community College. 5. While not specific, we probably have data from a sample of MCC students. 6. Based on the data, it appears that, in general, the better your attendance the higher your grade. 1. 2. Section 1-2 Variables and Types of Data Learning Targets 3. I will be able to identify types of data. 4. I will be able to identify the measurement level for each variable. Types of Data Qualitative vs. Quantitative Discrete vs. Continuous Qualitative vs. Quantitative Qualitative ◦ Variables that can be placed in distinct categories based on characteristics or attributes ◦ Examples: Gender Eye color Quantitative ◦ Variables that have numerical values and can be ordered or ranked ◦ Two types: Discrete Continuous ◦ Examples: Age Height Weight Discrete vs. Continuous Discrete – variables that can be counted ◦ Whole numbers ◦ Examples: number of children, number of phone calls Continuous – variables that cannot be counted ◦ Need to be measured ◦ Fractions or decimals ◦ Examples: length, time, temperature Continuous Variables (cont’) Since continuous variables are measured we round the data due to limits of the measuring device, therefore continuous variables have boundaries. Boundaries of 72 are written as 72.5 – 73.5. This means that the interval contains values of 72.5 up to but not including 73.5. The value 73.5 will be in the next interval. Boundaries Boundaries are given one additional decimal place and always end in 5. Variable Recorded Value Boundaries Length 15 centimeters 14.5 – 15.5 centimeters Temperature 86 degrees 85.5 – 86.5 degrees Time 0.43 seconds 0.425 – 0.435 seconds Mass 1.6 grams 1.55 – 1.65 grams Measurement Levels of Variables Nominal ◦ Categories with no order or rank ◦ Categories can be ranked with a precise difference but no meaningful zero Ordinal ◦ Categories that can be ranked, precise differences between ranks do not exist Interval Ratio ◦ Categories can be ranked with a precise difference and a meaningful zero does exist Examples of Measurement Scales Nominal Ordinal Interval Ratio Zip code Grade SAT score Height Gender Judging IQ Weight Eye Color Rating Scale Temperature Time Political Affiliation Ranking of Tennis Players Salary Religious Affiliation Age Major Field Nationality APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 1-2 Answers to Applying the Concepts 1-2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Variables – industry and job-related injuries Industry – qualitative, injuries – quantitative Injuries – discrete Industry is nominal, injuries is ratio Railroads employ fewer people Convenience, cost, service, etc. Answers will vary. Section 1-3: Data Collection and Sampling Techniques Learning Target 5. I will be able to identify the four basic sampling techniques. Ways to collect data Telephone survey Mailed questionnaire survey Personal interview survey Surveying records Observation Pros? Cons? 4 Sampling Techniques 1. 2. 3. 4. Random Sampling Systematic Sampling Stratified Sampling Cluster Sampling Random Sampling Systematic Sampling Selected Number by using chance or random numbers Use a random number table each subject of the population and then select every kth subject Divide the population into groups (strata) according to some characteristic that is important in the study, then sampling from each group Stratified Sampling Divide the population into groups (clusters) by some means such as geographic area, then randomly choose clusters and use every member of those clusters. Cluster Sampling Other Sampling Method Convenience sample – choosing subjects that are convenient APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 1-3 Section 1-4: Observational and Experimental Studies Learning Target: 6. I will be able to explain the difference between an observational and experimental study. OBSERVATIONAL STUDY Researcher observes what is happening or what has happened and tries to draw conclusions based on those observations Example: ◦ Motorcycle Industry Council ◦ “Motorcycle owners are getting older and richer” ◦ Data was collected from 1990 and 1998 and compared ◦ Considerable difference in age and income was found Experimental Study Researcher manipulates one of the variables and tries to determine how the manipulation influences other variables Vocabulary for Experimental Studies Independent variable the one being manipulated Treatment group – group that receives special instructions or treatment Control group – no special treatments or instructions ◦ (explanatory variable) Dependent variable – the resultant variable ◦ (outcome variable) Confounding variable – influences the dependent variable without being separate from the independent variable APPLYING THE CONCEPTS 1-4 Answers to Applying the Concepts 1-4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Experiment Independent – chewed tobacco or not dependent – blood pressure and heart rate Treatment group – tobacco, other group was control Answers will vary. Answers will vary. Answers will vary. Section 1-5: Uses and Misuses of Statistics “There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics” “Figures don’t lie, but liars figure” Misuses of Statistics 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Suspect Samples Ambiguous Averages Changing the Subject Detached Statistics Implied Connections Misleading Graphs Faulty Survey Questions Section 1-6: Computers and Calculators