Socio Economic Research on Fusion
(SERF) under EFDA - Overview and
Perspectives
C. Eherer, christian.eherer@efda.org
SERF Workshop IST CFN
21 July 2007, Lisbon, Portugal
Overview
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Rationale of SERF
SERF Timeline
SERF Phases Overview
Selected results
Current activities
Future perspectives
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Rationale of SERF
• Recommendation of the Fusion Programme Evaluation
Board (FPEB) 1996
– Fusion as an economically and socially acceptable energy
source
– Societal implications of fusion power
– Complement existing knowledge bases with an additional track
in multi-disciplinary approach
– Suggested research areas:
• Economics: direct and external costs of fusion
• Fusion in the energy system, energy scenarios
• Fusion as a large technical and complex system (including
governance)
• Public acceptance and public opinion on fusion
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF Timeline
• SERF 1 (1997-1998), Coordinated by European
Commission
• SERF 2 (1999-2000)
• SERF 3 (2001-2002), EFDA Technology WP 2001 (TW1)
• SERF 2002 (TW2)
• SERF 2003 (TW3)
• SERF 2004 (TW4)
• SERF 2005 (TW5)
• SERF 2006 (TW6)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 1 Overview
• Research on 5 macro-tasks as suggested by FPEB
• SE0: Long-term scenarios and the role of fusion power
– European MARKAL model until 2100 including fusion
• E1: Production costs of fusion power
– Direct costs of fusion via power plant system code (4 plant
designs; later on PPCS), comparison with other technologies
• E2: External costs of fusion
– ExternE methodology
• S1: Fusion as a large technical system
– Complexity, governance, megascience, research system
• S2: Fusion and the public opinion
– Structured interviews, focus groups, social impact of large fusion
facilities (Porto Torres fusion experiment siting study)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 2 Overview
• Improvement of work on external costs of fusion started
in SERF 1
• Additional investigations on local public perception of
fusion (Porto Torres)
• Trust and licensing aspects
• Politics and megascience
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 3 Overview
• Direct fusion cost assessment
– Load following
– International benchmarking studies (ARIES)
– Interaction of physics and technology developments
• External fusion cost assessment
– Additional fusion plant concepts
– Comparison with advanced versions of competitors
• Fusion as an energy system option
– Fusion in regional models (e.g. India)
– Net present value analysis of the fusion option
– Future electricity networks (impacts of intermittent sources,
requirements)
• Fusion and public opinion
– Focus groups around Cadarache (ITER site)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 2002-2003
• Efforts in energy modelling + model building
– PLANELEC model: simulation of electricity supply scenarios
(Western Europe)
– Single region global energy model (MARKAL/TIMES) TUG-IPP
model  different fusion penetration scenarios
– Impact of technological learning on fusion power
– Future electricity grids
– Start of development of EFDA-TIMES by an external consortium
of companies and experts (global multi-region energy model)
• Public opinion
– Awareness of fusion in schools across Europe
– Fusion and public risk perception in German speaking countries
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 2004-2005
• Fusion in the energy system
– Development of EFDA-TIMES
• Various tasks on data collection, first analyses, economic scenarios,
debugging, first peer reviews with subcontracted external partners
(AEAT, ECN), international networking and expertise, etc.
– Fusion scenarios and impacts of technological learning, global
TUG-IPP energy model
– PLANELEC Pro model: Global long-term electricity supply
scenarios
– Fusion in the electricity grid
• Social and economic sciences
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Risk communication guidelines for fusion
Focus groups on long term energy scenarios
Communication of energy scenario results
Spill-over effects and social rate of return on investments in
Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
SERF 2004-2005 (cont.)
• Social and economic science
– International press analysis on the decision to host ITER in
Europe
– Review of Impact of Communication EU ITER Site Decision in
Terms of Public Opinion (focus groups around Cadarache and
French media analysis)
– Systematic review of social science research concerning large
R&D programmes; Identification of key research questions &
design of an empirical programme to address the nature of
social perception of large R&D programmes
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Selected Results (1)
• Energy scenarios
– ECN, Western Europe MARKAL model (1998)
• Fusion power gets window of opportunity in case of CO2 emission
mitigation policies
– TUG-IPP global TIMES model (end 2006 version)
• CO2 emissions constraints, corresponding to a stabilisation level of
650 ppm  fusion gains a market share
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Energy scenarios – MARKAL ECN
Illustrating the effect of constraining CO2 emissions on the 2100 electricity supply in Western
Europe in the SERF 1 (1998) ECN studies. As the constraint tightens, the use of coal diminishes
and the contribution from other sources, including fusion, increases. Nuclear fission was not
allowed to increase in this case.
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Energy scenarios – TUG-IPP TIMES
Key assumptions: 650 ppm CO2 constraints; conservative annual fusion capacity growth rates; optimistic non-renewable
resources potential; availability of fast breeder reactors; availability of CO 2 sequestration
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Selected results (2)
• Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group
survey on ITER site decision around Cadarache
– Overall, (local) newspapers mainly treat ITER or fusion power in
general in a 'neutral' to 'positive' way.
– Fusion power is predominantly presented as a 'new' energy
option in media communication (especially w.r.t. fission). On a
cognitive level, this message is more or less internalised by
focus group participants.
– Risks associated with operation of ITER or fusion power in
general do not get much media attention.
– Opportunities for local/regional development tend to be
described in a positive way in the newspapers, while the focus
group results reveal a more ambiguous picture.
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Selected results (3)
• Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on
ITER site decision around Cadarache (cont.)
– Focus groups results however indicate a certain lack of trust in
government and nuclear agencies when it comes to nuclear energy. In
addition, the public debate organised in France was observed critically
by the people, as the major decision to host ITER was already taken at
international and national level.
– The focus groups revealed a largely uninformed public. Consequently,
most focus group participants clearly expressed a need for a more
elaborate communication effort, which should be transparent, interactive
(i.e. dealing with the questions defined by the local populations), as
complete as possible, balanced, and most of all, continuous (i.e. running
in parallel to ITER's 'life cycle').
• Recommendation to set up an a targeted research programme with
the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous
communication and public engagement in the further development
of the ITER project.
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Current activities
• EFDA-TIMES development: Review and integration
• Initial studies of hydrogen production from fusion power plants (will
be fed into the EFDA-TIMES hydrogen module)
• Lessons learned from public interaction, participative processes and
information/communication strategies in the context of big nuclear
projects
• Investigating lay understanding and reasoning about fusion
technology by means of a group-based methodology suitable to take
lay participants through a learning process about fusion
• Communication quality and lay understanding of fusion technology
in Poland: a quasi experimental study of message formulation
effects on attitude change
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Future perspectives (1)
• EFDA Steering Group appointed AdHoc Group to assess
the achievements of SERF against its original objectives
and give recommendations
• General guidelines for SERF in FP7:
– An increased level of coherence (cf. the EFDA-TIMES Steering
Group recently set-up)
– Clear objectives
– Multi-year goals
– More collaborative actions among Associations
– Increased links to universities and other laboratories
– Integration of the new EU member countries
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Future perspectives (2)
• Economic studies (WP 2008 working paper)
– Development, exploitation and maintenance (including knowhow) of the EFDA-TIMES global multi-region energy model in a
project oriented manner
– Continuing the investigation of economic benefits of spin-offs
and spillover effects of fusion R&D, building on the findings of
the work done so far and using appropriate economic
methodologies
– Continuing the investigation of the economics of non-electric
applications of fusion power, starting from the latest
achievements of the DEMO studies
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Future perspectives (3)
• To continue to have a look on public and decision makers’
perception and opinions on fusion in order to derive
recommendations for different areas of fusion activities, e.g.
– Public Information and communication strategies
– Education strategies
– Technological aspects and risks (e.g. energy supply, hydrogen vs.
electricity, safety & environment aspects)
• To follow the discourse on other technologies under debate,
emerging and existing ones, and derive lessons learnt for fusion.
• To develop with field experts from different Associations a common
approach or methodology to investigate lay understanding and
reasoning about fusion technology in ways applicable in different
European countries.
• Targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared
perspective on continuous communication and public engagement
in the further development of the ITER project (tbd)
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Thank you!
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Motivation of EFDA-TIMES
• Fusion power practically not considered in existing long-term energy
scenarios (e.g. IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES)
• Earlier energy scenario studies within EFDA:
– Only considered Western Europe (ECN)
– Basic single-region global model (TUG-IPP)
• Thus, need for a tool within EFDA and the Associations to develop
long-term multi-regional energy scenarios with fusion power
– State-of-the-art and internationally accepted methodology
– Enabling to contribute to the energy debate with such scenarios
•  Start of the EFDA-TIMES project in 2004
– First version of the EFDA-TIMES Modelling Framework was developed
for EFDA by an external consortium of experts and delivered in autumn
2004
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
EFDA-TIMES Intro (1)
• TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)
– State-of-the-art model generator developed by the Energy
Technology System Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the IEA
– Successor of MARKAL
• Partial equilibrium energy model
– Computes a supply-demand equilibrium of energy sector of the
economy the that maximizes net social surplus
• Bottom-up, energy/technology model based on
technology explicit representation
• Long-term and multi-period (until 2100)
• 15 world regions including different trade mechanisms
• Covers all sectors of the energy system
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
EFDA-TIMES Intro (2)
OIN***
OIP***
GAN***
GAP***
CON***
COP***
Fossil Fuel
Extraction
(46)
Supply Steps
(25)
OIN***
OIP***
GAN***
GAP***
Aggregation
Processing
(11)
OIN***
OIP***
GAN***
GAP***
Secondary
CON***
Transformation
COP***
(14)
OIN***
OIP***
GAN***
GAP***
CON***
COP***
Trade
OIL***
GAS***
COA***
BIO***
Upstream Fuels
Biomass
Potential
(8)
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
BIO***
Renewable
Potential
(5)
REN***
Nuclear
(1)
NUC***
Electricity
(52)
Electricity Fuels
ELC***
ELC
Cogeneration
(5)
End Use Fuels
HET
Heat
(11)
IND***
IND***
AGR***
COM***
RES***
TRA***
I***
Industrial
Service
Composition
(12)
Industrial
Technologies
(340)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
I**
(6)
Auto Production
(16)
Agriculture
Technologies
(1)
Commercial
Technologies
(291)
A**
(1)
C**
(8)
Residential
Technologies
(635)
Transportation
Technologies
(232)
Cogeneration
(40)
R**
(11)
T**
(16)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
EFDA-TIMES Intro (3)
• TIMES is a model for the prospective analysis of
possible futures by scenarios (not a forecasting model)
• A Scenario consists of:
– Demand Curves: reference energy service demand projections +
demand elasticities to own prices (GEM-E3  macroeconomic
drivers; + driver elasticities  demand projections)
– Supply Curves: primary reserves, annual potentials, expressed
as stepped supply curves
– Technology data-base (with optional penetration bounds)
– Policy scenario: technology or fuel policies (taxes, subsidies,
portfolio standards), emission policies (caps, taxes), general
policies (fuel taxes, etc.)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
EFDA-TIMES Intro (4)
• Typical application of TIMES models
– Technological assessment
• Analysis of competitiveness
• Life-cycle analysis in a dynamic setting (cradle-to-grave)
• Assesses bundles of competing and/or of complementary technologies,
rather than stand-alone evaluations
• Impact of Technological Progress
– Energy Policy evaluation
• energy taxes/subsidies, fiscal measures on investments, etc.
• micro-measures: building code, building retrofit programs, energy efficiency
programs, etc.
– Emission policy assessment
• Emission taxes
• Emission Cap-and-trade systems: global or partial coverage
• Emission intensity standards (for industry)
– Energy security evaluation
• E.g. Measured by oil/ gas/ nuclear fuel imports
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Components of EFDA-TIMES
1. The data base(s) / files where the model is specified (the EFDA
data base = the EFDA model)
2. The code that processes the data, generates the economic
equilibrium problem (the TIMES model generator)
3. The language in which TIMES is written (called GAMS)
4. The solver of the mathematical programming problem generated
(we use CPLEX)
5. The user interfaces, that makes it feasible to work with such large
and data intensive models:
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input processing, data management, scenario management (VEDA
Front End) and
•
output preparation, result analysis (VEDA Back End)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Distribution and use of EFDA-TIMES
1. EFDA model database (distributed by EFDA only)
– Now: only to EU Fusion Associations which request it
– May be used by EU Fusion Associations also for domestic
analyses by inserting their country as a 16th region (tbd)
– EFDA-TIMES cannot be used for profit or commercial purposes
2. The TIMES model generator is available free of charge
from ETSAP (www.etsap.org)
3. (+4.) GAMS and CPLEX are commercial software and
have to be purchased
5. EFDA has a group license for the Associations for
VEDA-FE/BE for use with the EFDA database; VEDA
has to be purchased by external groups
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Involved research groups
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CIEMAT, Spain
ENEA, Italy
iSpace, Austrian Research Studios, Austria
Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), Germany
Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), Italy
Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark
UKAEA Culham, UK
– ECN, AEAT as subcontractors
• University of Technology Graz (TUG), Austria
• VTT-TEKES, Finland
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Achievements 2005/2006
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First review of EFDA-TIMES and extensive list of suggestions for improvement by
VTT-TEKES and AEAT
Alternative economic growth assumptions and revised driver elasticities for EFDATIMES (ENEA)
Data collection and improvements
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Electricity sector (CIEMAT)
Non-GHG pollutants (CIEMAT)
External costs (CIEMAT)
Methodology for assessing external versus mitigation costs of fusion in long-term
energy scenarios (CIEMAT)
Implementation of a basic nuclear fuel cycle for Uranium (fission) and Lithium (fusion)
(UKAEA)
Review and suggestions for improvements of the residential sector (IPP)
Impacts of Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL) and development of other
learning approaches, e.g. ATL, Knowledge-Based-Learning (TUG)
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Roadmap and perspectives
• To speed up the development process of EFDA-TIMES a two stage
roadmap has been adopted:
– Stage I: Do what is needed to produce publishable results. Publish the key
assumptions and defensible preliminary results in a definitive paper.
– Stage II: Further studies using the model, by fusion associations. Do what is
needed to release a version to non-fusion users, which is attractive enough for
them to want to use it.
• Stage I focuses on the following activities:
– Consolidation of the model
• Review of the technology database and model structure
• Review of major assumptions and their impact and get them “right”
• Stay close to well known IPCC scenarios (as far as possible)
– Implementation of quality guidelines
– Centralised management and documentation of the master version of the model
– Validation/benchmarking exercise
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SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007
Roadmap and perspectives (2)
EFDA-TIMES Steering Group
- EFDA RO, representatives of involved groups
- Quality guidelines
- Propose consistent work programme
- Advise and review publication
- Organise benchmarking exercises and external
peer reviews
Centralised Management of the Master
Version
- To avoid diverging model version
- Ensure proper inclusion of changes
- Checking of changes by the groups
- Ensuring proper motivation and documentation of changes
- Collect elements for a model documentation
- Release updated master versions to the groups
Supporting tools:
- Internet forum
- Ftp-server
- Document management system
- EFDA-TV (remote desktop sharing)
- Video/Phone Conferences
Involved Groups
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