The Role of Computing in
Climate Science
Dr. Robert Bishop
WMO Information System (WIS)
Workshop on Information Access Enablers
Geneva, Switzerland, 17-18 May 20010
Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!
Icelandic Ash Cloud: Mantle-Crust-Glacier-Rivers
Weather-Climate-Agriculture-Economy-Society
The Bigger Picture
CLIMATE
CIVILISATION
ENVIRONMENT
SOLAR SYSTEM
BIOSPHERE
EARTH
21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration
The Whole Earth – An Holistic Approach
• Seamless
• Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)
• Multi-science (physical & socio-economic)
The New Grand Challenge
We have been treating the sciences as
separate stovepipes and silos
for over 200 years!
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In Research
In Research Funding
In Publishing
In Conferences
In University Faculties
In Government Departments
1950 ENIAC Meteorology Simulations
Yokohama Earth Simulator
Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6
Best Dedicated Climate Machines
(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)
Worldwide
Ranking
# 31
# 33
# 34
# 35
# 54
Organisation
JAMSTEC
ECMWF
ECMWF
DKRZ
NAVO
Country
JAPAN
UK
UK
GY
USA
Peak
Teraflops
131.07
156.42
156.42
151.60
117.13
Sustained
Teraflops
Supplier
122.40
NEC
SX-9
115.90
IBM
Power 575
115.90
IBM
Power 575
115.90
IBM
Power 575
90.84
CRAY
XT5
We need to use ‘best in class’
technology to deal with the
complexity of weather, climate,
environment and their socioeconomic interaction,
hence ……
ICES: a peak performance facility
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Hardware
Software
Data
Science
People
ICES Top Priorities
• Maintain dedicated HPC in the top 5 of machines worldwide
• Supply HPC cycles and software engineering support to
national and regional Earth & Climate centres worldwide
• Enable climate science to reach comparable levels of spatial
and temporal resolution as NWP
• Evolve open source Earth system models by integrating
elements from climate, bio, geo, space & social sciences
• Drive breakout hierarchy of nextgen Earth-Climate models
• Support training of next generation ‘holistic thinkers’
• Provide info-briefings on Earth & Climate to
International Organisations & NGOs
ICES and Disaster Risk Management
CLIMATE &
WEATHER
SOCIAL
SYSTEMS
•Community Resilience
ENVIRONMENT
•Adaptation & Mitigation
•Planning & Relief
Strategies
SOLAR
SYSTEM
•Precursor Signals
EARTH
SYSTEM
BIOSPHERE
ICES and Geoengineering
CLIMATE &
WEATHER
SOCIAL
SYSTEMS
•Climate Remediation
ENVIRONMENT
•CO2 Removal
•Solar Radiation Management
•Unexpected Consequences
SOLAR
SYSTEM
BIOSPHERE
EARTH
SYSTEM
Proposed ICES Computing Resources
• Dedicated High Performance Computing
- 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)
• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion & image analysis
- auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering
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Low cost power availability (nuclear, hydro, solar)
Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU
Green Computing, Cloud Computing
Citizen Science Computing
Google Earth, WolframAlpha
HPC Computing Architectures
(We need to compute ~ 1000 x real-time)
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Homogeneous vs heterogeneous
Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom
Programming languages, software tools & middleware
Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory
Power management, flops/watt
Silicon-Photonics.
Quantum?
Earth Modelling Software
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Grid Size
Parameterisation
Algorithm development
Coupling, linkages & feedbacks
Representation of physical processes
Integration of the socio-economic processes
Initial & boundary condition determination
Uncertainty estimates & management
Statistical & ensemble methods
Hierarchy of models
Multi-models
Stochastics
Nextgen
Earth Data Challenges
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Data assimilation
Historical data re-analysis
Data access, archiving & meta-data
Data quality control & harmonisation
Data availability (in situ, remote sensing)
Sparse data (Oceans, Africa, Antarctica)
Model output-data validation & verification
Model output-data storage (or re-compute?)
Observation & Data Sources
• Airborne & Satellite Remote Sensing:
Envisat, MeteoSat, SMOS, GOCE, GOES-R, LandSat, SBIRS
• In Situ:
AWS, Radar, Lidar, Broadband Seismic
• Mobile:
Aircraft, Ships, Argo Buoys, Autos? Cell Phones?
• Socio-economic:
GDP, Land Use, Food, Water Resources, Energy, etc.
Core Actor’s Network
• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
- World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
- World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
• Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
• European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• National Meteorology Bureaus
• National Geological Surveys
• National Climate Centres
• Research Universities
Extended Actor’s Network
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ESA, NASA, JAXA, EUMETSAT, CGMS
IOC, 21stC-OI, SIO, WHC, JAMSTEC
BGS, BRGM, USGS, ERI
GEOSS, GCOS, GMES
ENES, ACRE, ESFRI
CSIRO, CALIT2, NCAR, COLA
CNRS (CC-IN2P3), PRACE
UK Agencies: DEFRA, DECC
US Agencies: NOAA, NSF, DOE, DOD
ICES Organisation Structure
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Geneva-based
Not-for-profit Foundation
Public-Private Partnership
Broad Scientific Participation
Inter-disciplinary Governance
Participation by Int’l Organisations
Experts Committee, Ethics Committee
Why Public-Private Partnership?
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Fast
Agile
Simple
Flexible
Responsive
Non-political
Independent
New sources of funding
Why Geneva?
• International city, neutral country, trusted
• Science literate, educational infrastructure
• Proximity to global policy bodies:
UNEP, WBCSD, IUCN, WWF
WHO, UNHCR, ICRC
WMO (WCRP, WWRP), GEO
WTO, WEF, UNCTAD, ILO, ITU, EBU
• Partnerships: CERN, ETH, Canton Universities
ICES Funding
• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private
- overflow capacity for national and regional centres
- development of nextgen integrated climate/Earth models
• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, and
1/3 products and services, such as:
- test bed for large scale construction projects
- disaster risk management
- industry specific services
- policy-making support
- decision support
- ‘what if’ scenarios
- geoengineering
ICES Foundation Members
Board members:
Bob Bishop President, André Kaplun Secretary, Julien Pitton Treasurer
Bankers: UBS
Auditors: PricewaterhouseCoopers
Expert Committee:
Dr. Ghassem Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme, WMO
Prof. Martin Beniston Chair for Climate Research, University of Geneva
Director, Institute for Environmental Sciences
Prof. Marc Parlange Dean of the School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Eng.
Ecole Polytechnique Federal Lausanne
Dr. Michael Rast
Head of Programme Planning Office
Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes
European Space Agency
Ethics Committee: tba
Helping guide the successful transformation of human society
in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.
Recent Major Natural Disasters
Date
Country
Lives Lost
April-May 2010
Iceland
April 2010
China
2000+
6.9 quake
April 2010
Brazil
200+
rain, mudslides
March 2010
Uganda
350+
rain, mudslides
Feb 2010
France
50+
tempest, sea walls
Feb 2010
Chile
700+
8.8 quake, tsunami
Jan 2010
Haiti
250,000+
7.0 quake
April 2009
Italy
300+
6.3 quake
Feb 2009
Australia
250+
bushfires
May 2008
China
70,000+
8.0 quake
Aug 2005
USA
1,800+
hurricane, levees
Dec 2004
Indonesia
225,000+
9.3 quake, tsunami
Aug 2003
Europe
30,000+
heat wave
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Cause
volcanic ash cloud
The Father of Modern Meteorology
Before the Age of Computing
In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a British mathematician
and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe
to numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would
employ 64,000 human computers to sit in tiers around
the interior circumference of a giant globe.
ICES and Society
CLIMATE &
WEATHER
SOCIAL
SYSTEMS
SOLAR
SYSTEM
•Research
•Integration
•Development
•Discovery & Innovation
•Communications
•Teaching
•Training
EARTH
SYSTEM
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
ICES in a Nutshell
• Development of a transformative meta-science that integrates
climate, weather, environmental, geo, bio, & socio-economic
sciences
• Next-generation modelling and simulation techniques
• Support for national & regional climate centres
• Teaching, training, capacity building
• Decision support, communications
• Dedicated supercomputing
• Global networking
• Visual intensity
~200 professionals including seconded experts
Extending Weather & Climate Observations
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Early 1990s
Late 1990s
Present Day
Early 2010s
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Weather
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Climate
Variability
Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea IceOcean & Sea Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Sulphate
Aerosol
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Climate
Change
Evolution of Forecasting Accuracy
Weather & Climate Communities
(A Convergence of Methodologies)
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):
National Bureaus of Meteorology today: 3~5 days
ECMWF today: 5~10 days
Future Goal: increased accuracy, and on to monthly & seasonal level
• Climate modelling:
WCRP today: 100~1000 years
Future Goal : increased accuracy, and on to decadal & annual level
• The 10-year Challenge:
Seasonal to inter-annual predictions
Global to regional to local forecasting
Coarse-grain to fine-grain spatial resolution
Extreme weather early warning