Weather Technology R&D Improvements
to Support the FCS and Objective Force
with Brigade and Below C4 & ISR
US Army Research Laboratory
Computational Information & Science Directorate
Battlefield Environment Division
BE Division Major External Programs
•NATO MCMG WG/BMSS
• US Principal, Artillery Liaison from ARL
• Coordinate Tactical Met Systems and TDA Development
•Center for Geosciences/Atmospheric Research (CSU)
• R&D for Army/USAF/Navy
• Hydrology, Clouds, NWP/Assimilation, MetSat Apps
• $7M 6.2, $2M 6.1 funding for Phase IV (3+ year)
•University Partnering for Operational Support
• Terrestrial & Space Weather Technology Transfer
• JHU/APL & UoA/Geophysical Institute
• $4M 6.2 (Army), $4M OMA (USAF)
OUTLINE
Purpose: Future year technology follow-on to IMETS – Support to Future Combat
System (FCS) and Army Objective Force including Brigade and Below
• Legacy technology: Current weather forecast feeds to IMETS ABCS are “topdown”- Not based on any recent observations in the actual Area of Interest - Does
not make real-time use of METSAT and other on-scene sensors - 0 - 3 hr forecasts
often based on data 6 to 12 hr old.
• Is there an Army “Nowcast” requirement? - Concepts for SWO / IMETS-light in
Combat Brigades - IMETS ORD - Relevance to Objective Force/FCS INTEL - New
decision aids and weather products for echelons below brigade - Dismounted
Battlespace Battle Lab
• What’s the new technology R&D Challenge? Weather “nowcast” centerpiece Technical shortfalls in current GOVT and commercial forecast technology to use onscene and real-time remote sensors - Inability to fuse forecasts & “ground-truth”
observations
• What’s the Accuracy Improvement Metric? Preliminary results from nowcast proof
of concept study showing quantitative reduced error vs. number of regional sensors
available
Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS)
Weather Forecast Functions
IMETS receives two daily runs of the 120-hour Navy NOGAPS global forecasts (100 km
spacing) and two daily runs of the 48-hour Air Force MM5 regional forecasts (15 km spacing
down to about 50 m above the surface) from the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The
IMETS Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) combines these forecasts with surface and upper
air observation data to introduce more layers near the surface (at 2.5 km spacing down to 2
m above the surface) over the first 24-hour forecast for Army applications. These data and
derived weather hazards and features (icing, turbulence, …) from the Atmospheric Sounding
Program (ASP) are stored in a 4-D Gridded Met Database (GMDB) of 70 parameters.
Background: Army Weather for DIV and Above TOC
IMETS currently operates with only “top-down” data feeds - no local data
US: GE-1 / EUR: Eutelsat-W3 / PAC: IntelSat-802
AF SWO Operation & Analysis
Air Force Weather Agency
CONUS provides “top-down”
weather information feeds to
the Army -“anywhere, anytime”
ABCS BFA IWEDA Overlays
CTP Weather Feature
ABCS Wx Contour Overlays
MTF Met Messages
Weather Effects
Workstation
(WEW)
Commercial Tactical
Very Small Aperture
Terminal (T-VSAT)
JCDB Weather
 High-Resolution Forecasts
 Weather (Wx) Hazards
 SWO analysis of AF / Navy /
Army “Model of the Day”
 IWEDA Wx Impact TDA
 TOC Web Page Generator
 Gridded Met Database
Joint Common Database Wx
 WxSAT Analysis / Imagery
 Weather Contour Client
Application Support
 3-D Wx Data Browser
ABCS Integrated Meteorological
System - IMETS CP / Heavy TOC
Artillery Meteorology - Characterizing meteorological
environment along the trajectory and in the target area
The Engineering Manufacturing Development (EMD) Artillery Met Profiler pre-production prototype:
Meteorological Measuring Set - Profiler
AN/TMQ-50 Semi(MMS-P)
Automated Meteorological
Station (SMS) surface
NOAA/DMSP
sensor
MetSat Data
Upgrades the MMS-P balloon
profile with surface obs (AN/TMQ
50) and POES MetSat to fuse
with the MM5 forecast model
output to forecast 4-D artillery
met data over the region
Initializing NOGAPS forecast
and observation data broadcast
from AFWA
MM5 Forecast Model -> 4D Data Cube
Max Area: 500 x 500 km
Max Height: 30 km
20 km
Min Resolution: 2 km
(goal < 100 m)
Artillery Meteorology Parameters
80 km
30 km
Current and extended range trajectories
• Wind Velocity
• Temperature (T & Tv)
• Pressure
• Cloud Base Height
• Cloud Tops
• Precipitation Type
• Precipitation Rate
• Precipitation Size
• Turbulence
• Severe Weather
• Reduction of Vis
(fog,dust, …)
FCS - A “sensor rich” environment
C2, Brigade ISR collection & analysis, UAV/UGV and sensor webs
• Develop capability for IMETS-light and 2-person
SWO Combat Weather Teams in MI CO
• Support C2 “on-the-move” with up to date met data,
met-sat overlays and weather impact decision aids
fully compatible with CTP and C4I systems
• Continue to exploit reach-back for “top-down”
weather (from DIV and above IMETS and AF
Weather Hubs) for 24 hr and 5 day forecasts
• Fuse higher echelon forecasts with
– local sensor obs
– remote sensing (METSAT)
– weather HUMINT
• Improve first-in and daily mission support
– 0-3 hr local nowcasts
– 0-48 hr regional forecasts (MM5)
– 3-5 day theater forecasts (NOGAPS)
• Support Brigade ops, UAV, RSTA & weather
over complex terrain and MOUT
Contrasts in Weather Technology for DIV and Above Vs BDE and Below
34 Vehicle Mounted
IMETS
92 Light
Systems
The Technical Challenges to Nowcast Weather Technology
Existing commercial and military forecast models are limited to standard observations - an
upper air vertical profile and standard met at standard sensor heights above the surface.
Most forecast models can not use isolated surface observations even if they are available.
The Army tactical Battlescale Forecast Model (BFM) on IMETS enhances 15 km scale MM5
gridded data forecasts received twice a day, which are themselves based on world wide met
observations. Data can be 6-12 hours old by the time the forecast reaches the IMETS.
Currently BFM can assimilate standard surface observations - but only within a 1 hr window
centered on the BFM start time (usually 0 Z or 12 Z for NOGAPS inputs; 6 Z or 18 Z for MM5).
Army weather situational awareness and weather impact decision aids for digital map overlays
should use current on-scene observations, if available, and remote sensing to continuously
update short-term (0-3 hr) nowcasts and decision aids.
Basic “data fusion” adjustments can be implemented now, with more sophisticated data
assimilation and nowcast numerical modeling later, to exploit non-conventional met data (for
example, observed weather data en-route along arbitrary paths and at arbitrary times,
METSAT data, and human INTEL observations - “UAV sees fog lifting and visibility improving
now across the target area”).
Simple Data Fusion Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study
Station used as input data for analyses using 1 station
Stations used as input data for analyses using 3 stations
Stations used as input data for analyses using 5 stations
Stations used as input data for analyses using 12 stations
Remaining 96 stations in the model domain used for forecast/nowcast validations
Absolute Difference between Forecast/Nowcast and
Observed Temperature (deg C)
Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study
Forecast/Nowcast Temperature Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000
5
4
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
3
nowcast
with 1
station
2
nowcast
with 3
stations
1
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour
(Zulu)
Preliminary Nowcast Proof of Concept Study
Data Set - Three months of Oklahoma Mesonet Observations:
22 Jan- 28 Feb 2000 (38 days); 1 May - 29 Jun 2000 (60 days)
Applies simple data fusion of actual surface sensor observations with the standard 0-24
hourly outputs from BFM, the current tactical Battlescale Forecast Model used in the field
on the AN/TMQ-40C Integrated Meteorological System (IMETS)
Reports the absolute forecast error averaged over the other 96 Oklahoma surface stations
at each hour of the day (0-24) and then averaged over the 38 and 60 day study windows
Clearly demonstrates the progressive improvements to BFM by fusing 1, 3, 5 and 12 onscene, real-time surface observations from a few surface observations scattered across
the Oklahoma Mesonet to produce a prototype 0-hr nowcast for each hour of the day:
% Reduction in Absolute Error
Using: 1 Observation 3 Observations
12 Observations
Temperature:
25 - 30 %
40 - 45 %
60 - 65 %
Wind Speed:
15 - 25 %
25 - 35 %
30 - 45 %
Wind Direction:
10 - 20 %
20 - 30 %
35 - 45 %
Relative Humidity:
0 - 25 %
20 - 35 %
40 - 60 %
Additional improvements are expected when the observations can be assimilated directly
into the BFM numerical model (as opposed to data fusion post-processing used here)
New capabilities are needed
to exploit the potential web of sensors on the future battlefield
Data Fusion of
information from
Combat Weather
Teams, G2, and
other soldier
observations
including weather
HUMINT: “A heavy
rain has begun
now where we are”
APT ~ 4 km/pix,
Dynamic
Dust Storm
HRPT ~ 1.1 km/pix
Dynamic
Soil Moisture
Dynamic
Snow Cover
Polar and geostationary WxSAT
(GOES, DMSP, NPOESS, …)
UAV derived data (ground vs air speed,
snow cover, visibility…) and perhaps
direct sensor data
Surface sensors: IREMBASS-compatible TACMET II sensor
and ceilometer; Remote Miniature Weather Sensor (RMWS Infantry and AF Combat Weather), Miniature Remote Weather
Station (MRWS - SOF), Meteorological Automated Sensor and
Transceiver (MAST); & AF TACMET-MOD II, Air Traffic Control
Towers, Airfield Automatic Met Equipment, AF Marwinsonde
profiles when in theater
Arty-met surface and profile
observations from AN/TMQ-50
Semi-Automated Meteorological
Station (SMS) and AN/TMQ-41
Meteorological Measuring Set
Robotic Ground
Vehicles may collect
and use local met
data - also should
exploit NBC RECON
met data, armor
wind/pressure data,
etc.
Military METSAT Exploitation Conditions in Data Denied Areas
Capabilities are being developed
for IMETS to exploit Air Force and
Army satellite ground stations to
produce real-time information for
data denied areas
Weather: Cloud cover, wind,
turbulence, temperature,
precipitation rate, icing
Ground State: Soil moisture, snow
cover, flooding, vegetation type,
precipitation amounts, snow depth
Target Acquisition: Illumination,
background radiance, surface
temperature, surface albedo
(reflectance), aerosol events,
reduced visibility
New IMETS display - GOES
10 data overlayed on IMETS
forecast outputs - 6.5-7 mm
Band - Water Vapor, Forecast
Winds and Temperature
METSAT will become a More Important Source of Real-time
Data for Now-casts and Decision Aids
AF STT
W-STT / JMIST
Direct UHF
(Enhanced with
antennas for IMETS
Mounted & CP)
(Comms feed from
AF Hubs - STT without
WxSAT antennas)
(Antenna & Low Res
LRIT / WEFAX
LRPT / APT)
Other Sources
(Army, internet,
… as available)
IMETS Requirements:
Enhanced STT
• Low-resolution geostationary Weather
Facsimile (WEFAX ==> LRIT Low Rate
Information Transmission)
• Low-resolution Polar Orbiter Automated
Picture Taking (APT ==> LRPT Low Rate
Picture Transmission)
(WEFAX and APT transition to digital LRIT and
LRPT for most international WxSat in 2002+ )
• High-resolution geostationary imagery,
graphics and data
• High-resolution classified and unclassified
POES imagery/graphics and special sensor
data
Exploitation of Next generation METSAT
Proposed NPOESS Low Rate Data (LRD) - 3.5 to 4 Mbps
satellite broadcasts will support future products. Current draft of
priorities include these Environmental Data Records:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Imagery
Global Sea Surface Winds (Speed and
Direction)
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Atmospheric Vertical Temperature Profile
Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profile
Soil Moisture (Surface)
Cloud Base Height
Cloud Cover/Layers
Pressure (surface/profile)
Precipitation Type/Rate
Suspended Matter
Cloud Top Height
Cloud Optical Thickness
Snow Cover/Depth
Land Surface Temperature
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
NPOESS consolidates DoD DMSP
and NOAA POE Satellite programs
Precipitable Water
Cloud Top Temperature
Aerosol Optical Thickness
Cloud Ice Water Path
Vegetation Index
Cloud Top Pressure
Surface Temperature
Global Sea Surface Wind Stress
Cloud Liquid Water
Albedo
Cloud Effective Particle Size
Total Water Content
Ocean Color
Sea Ice Characterization
Ocean Wave CharacteristicsSignificant Wave Height
Sea Surface Height/Topography
Evaluation of Aerospace Corp Direct Receive Antenna • Prototyping a low resolution solution - NPOESS L-Band Low Rate
Data Channel surrogate is DMSP RDS (S-band). Aerospace is
developing an antenna/receiver potentially suitable for Army “direct
receive” capability deployed at small units
• Potential as antenna for Mobile Weather Imagery Receipt
• Supports current weather during comm-sat loss & ARTY-MET
• “Low cost” horn antenna packaging analog electronics and receiver on
the structure with “on-board baseband encrypted interface”
• Requires tracking mount, PC with mission software and crypto device
Using DMSP F-15 Real-time Data
Smooth (RDS) 2.5 km Line Scan and 1550 km SSM/I and 45-175 km SSM/T as a
NPOESS surrogate for EDR data
Additional Back-Up
Information
INTEGRATED WEATHER EFFECTS DECISION AID (IWEDA)
Web Based IWEDA
Command Staffs often have little specific idea
of how wind, temperature, fog, … relate to
impacts on their systems and operations
JAVA-Based, Platform Independent Integrated
Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA)
Mission, System, Sub-system selection
Quick-look weather impact
Number of unique rules currently fielded on
IMETS IWEDA ~ 250
Number of additional “shared” rules (duplicates
between similar systems) ~ 500
Number of unique new rules recently
generated for future IWEDA updates ~ 4,000
Implementing Plug-and-Play
JAVASpace/JINI Decision Aid
subscription services
Digital Map Overlay
Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study
Forecast/Nowcast Temperature Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
The spring and summer results are consistent.
The 12-station nowcast better meets identified
Army requirements from USAIC&FH for 1 deg
C temperature and 1 m/s windspeed accuracy
Results may not reflect nowcast error in more
complex terrain. These results are based on
objective analysis only. ARL meteorologists
expect better accuracy when BFM is modified
to fuse local data inside the numerical model.
The additional value of nowcasts is to correct
for timing errors and missed significant events
( frontal passage, dust storms, flash floods, …).
This value is not captured in an “improvement
in average error” metric.
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Temperature (deg C)
BFM uses no local observations. BFM here is
initialized on NOGAPS that uses a few local
met balloon soundings taken 6-12 hrs earlier.
01 May – 29 Jun 2000
5
4
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
3
nowcast
with 1
station
2
nowcast
with 3
stations
1
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour
Forecast/Nowcast Wind Speed Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
01 May – 29 Jun 2000
3.0
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Wind Speed (m/s)
The BFM (green curve) is based totally on the 0
Z and 12 Z forecast data points from the
regional Navy NOGAPS.
2.5
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
2.0
nowcast
with 1
station
1.5
nowcast
with 3
stations
1.0
nowcast
with 12
stations
0.5
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour
Absolute Difference between Forecast/Nowcast and
Observed Wind Speed (m/s)
Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study
Forecast/Nowcast Wind Speed Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000
3.0
2.5
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
2.0
nowcast
with 1
station
1.5
nowcast
with 3
stations
1.0
nowcast
with 12
stations
0.5
0.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour
(Zulu)
Forecast/Nowcast Wind Direction Absolute Error
Forecast/Nowcast Wind Direction Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000
50
40
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
30
nowcast
with 1
station
20
nowcast
with 3
stations
10
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
01 May – 29 Jun 2000
50
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Wind Direction (degrees)
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Wind Direction (degrees)
Preliminary Nowcast - Proof of Concept Study
Wind Direction and Relative Humidity Error Analysis
40
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
30
nowcast
with 1
station
20
nowcast
with 3
stations
10
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour
Forecast/Nowcast Relative Humidity Absolute Error
Forecast/Nowcast Relative Humidity Absolute Error
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
Based on 96 stations in Oklahoma Mesonet
22 Jan – 28 Feb 2000
20
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
15
nowcast
with 1
station
10
nowcast
with 3
stations
5
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour (Zulu)
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Relative Humidity (percent)
Absolute Difference between
Forecast/Nowcast and Observed
Relative Humidity (percent)
Forecast Hour
01 May – 29 Jun 2000
20
Battlescale
Forecast
Model
15
nowcast
with 1
station
10
nowcast
with 3
stations
5
nowcast
with 12
stations
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Forecast Hour (Zulu)