GLGi: LED and OLED Market Trends
President & Managing Member
Organic Lighting Technologies, LLC
Council Member Biography
Munisamy Anandan, Ph.D., is the President and Managing Member at
Organic Lighting Technologies LLC, an optical component
manufacturer. He specializes in market research, marketing, LCD
backlighting, and flat panel display technologies. He is experienced in
development of OLED backlight for cell phones, LED backlight, LCD
TV, CRT, SED, and desktop monitors. He is knowledgeable in market
and technology trends for the plasma, projection television market,
LCDs for desktop monitors, and OLEDs. He is experienced in the LCD,
Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, LCD backlighting, field emission
display markets and has established processes for mass manufacturing
for LCD, Plasma, OLED, Flat fluorescent lamp, and LCD backlighting .
He is a senior member of IEEE and the Society for Information Display.
Recently, he has delivered a "Key-Note Address" on 'LED backlight for
LCD' at International Display Research Conference in Moscow.
OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
Topics
 Review of technology
 Penetration & growth forecasts
 Review of major players
OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
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OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
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OLT© 2008 Gerson Lehrman Group Inc., All Rights Reserved
LED
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Lumiled web site
7
SOME BASICS
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
8
SOME BASICS
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
9
JUNCTION TEMPERATURE:
CONSEQUENCES
Junction temperature beyond 60 C
•
•
•
•
Spectrum shifts and hence
chromaticity coordinates change.
Brightness and luminous efficiency
decreases
Life degrades.
Values differ for red LED compared to
blue and green
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
10
40 YEARS OF WORK ON LED
• EPITAXIAL LAYER
• ELECTRON-HOLE RECOMBINATION
• LIGHT GENERATION ACROSS JUNCTION
• LIGHT EXTRACTION
• PACKAGING
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
11
EFFICIENCY OF LEDs- Chip level
At Room Temperature
LED color
Peak λ
current
lm/w
White
N/A
20 mA
136
White
N/A
350 mA
115 (136 lm)
Red
625 nm
350 mA
60
Blue
450 nm
350 mA
10
Green
527 nm
350 mA
72
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
12
‘LUXEON REBEL’ LED (packaged)
LED Color
Peak λ
Red
627 nm
Lumin Flux
350 mA 700mA
40lm
85 lm
lm/w
(350 mA)
36
CRI
-----
Blue
470 nm
23 lm
48 lm
21.3
-----
Green
530 nm
80 lm
145 lm
72
100 lm
180 lm
84
----70
Neutral white (4100K)
80 lm
145 lm
67
75
Warm white
60 lm
110 lm
50
80
Cool white
(6500 K)
(3100K)
Retail price
-------------------Approx: €4.49 = US$6.6-----------------------Above characteristics measured at thermal pad temperature of 25 C
Life: 50,000 hrs at junction temperature of 110C for 350 mA drive.
Source: Lumiled web site
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
13
SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
Sapphire substrate Manufacturers
•
Crystal Gmbh, Berlin – 1”, 2” and 3” wafers
•
Rubicon – up to 4” and also 6”
•
Marketech International, Washington state
•
Valley Design corp, Santa Cruz, CA and Shireley,
MA- procures raw material and polishes-up to 8”
•
Semiconductor Wafer, Inc. - 4” available
•
Epistone comp-semi material, Freemont, CA- 4”
wafer
•
Red Optronics-Distributor of 4” Boule crystal rod
•
Roditi International-Distributor-3”
•
Kyocera
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
14
SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
SiC wafers
• Cree
• Dow Corning
• Toshiba
• Caracal
• Norstel-Swedish
• 15 competing companies for SiC. 75%
market share for Cree.
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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15
SUBSTRATE FOR GaN
GaN wafer
•
•
•
Sumitomo Electric – 2” wafer
Panasonic
Marubeni, Santa Clara-GaN on
sapphire-2”
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
16
APPLICATIONS OF LED
ILLUMINATION
AUTOMOTIVE
SIGNS & DISPLAYS
MOBILE
TRAFFIC SIGNALS
LCD BACKLIGHT
OTHERS
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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17
ILLUMINATION: 2008 NEW YEAR BALL
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Lumiled web site
18
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine
19
INTERIOR STRUCTURE OF ‘NEW YEAR BALL’
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Lumiled web site
20
ILLUMINATION
-
LED Magazine
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
21
ILLUMINATION….Contd
LED Magazine
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
22
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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23
LED Magazine
ILLUMINATION….Contd
-
Refrigerated
show case
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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24
GE Web site
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine
25
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
26
LED Magazine
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
1,750,272 LEDs
55’ x 134’
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Daktronics Web site-Longhorn
stadium, University of Texas
OLT
27
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine-
3rd
28
Ring Road, Beijing-Barco
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
Daktronics web site-Dolphin’s stadium
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
29
GIANT SCREEN DISPLAY
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine-Daktronics Time Square
30
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED
Magazine-Toronto Tower-Cree 31
ILLUMINATION….Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine
-Street Lighting-Toronto
32
AUTOMOTIVE-HEAD LAMP
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
33
LED Magazine
LED HEAD LAMP
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
34
Hella web site
LCD TV LIT BY LED BACKLIGHT
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
35
BACKLIGHT MARKET
9.2 B LEDs by 2010
Developed from:
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
36
.
4%
Market pnetration
PENETRATION OF ‘LED BACKLIGHT
3%
Notebook PC
LCD TV
LCD Monitor
Other Appln
2%
1%
Q406
Q107 Q207
Q307 Q407
Q108
Q208 Q308
Jennifer Colgrove-SID OLT
Display Applications confce, 2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
37
GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST FOR ‘HB LEDs’
10,000
. 9,000
Latest: in 2010, $10.6B
8,000
7,000
($M)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
2008
2009
OLT
2010
2011
Developed form-Source: Strategies
38
in Light ‘07
SIGNS AND DISPLAYS
. 3500
3403
3000
2500
($M)
2339
2000
1500
1000
1489
1170
851
500
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Developed from -Source: Strategies in Light ‘07
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
39
1000
GENERAL ILLUMINATION
.
875
800
612
($M)
600
461
400
322
200
2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
2008
2009
2010
Developed from-Source: Strategies in Light ‘07
OLT
40
PRICE BARRIER FOR LED
Lamp
Lumin Flux
Power
Price
Incand
655 lm
65 W
$3
CFL
750 lm
15 W
$4
LED
680 lm
17 W
$100
Developed from -Strategies in Light 2007
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
41
COST CUTTING MEASURES
• SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS IN EFFICIENCY
REQUIRES LESS NUMBER OF LEDsEXAMPLE CELL PHONE
• 6” WAFER COMING IN TO MANUFACTURING
LINE
• GLASS WAFERS BEING EXPLORED
• MARKET PRESSURE
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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42
MAJOR PLAYERS AND LICENSES
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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43
OLED
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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44
OLED: MAJOR PLAYERS
.
Kodak (small
Molecule)
1. Pioneer
2CMEL
3Samsung SDI
4Samsung SEC
5Toppoly
6CPT
7LG Philips
8Tohoku
Devices
9Fujitsu Electric
Holding
1Univision Tech
Inc., Taiwan
1Orion OLED
Co., Korea
2008 GLG SEMINAR
UDC
(Phosphorescent)
1. Pioneer –
2. Mitsubishi
Chemicals
3 Samsung
SDI(LTPS)
4 Samsung
Electronics (40” aSi AMOLED)
5 Sony
6 Epson
7 Toyota Industries
8 Olight
9 AUO
10.CMEL
11.LG Philips
12. Konica-Minota
OLT
Sumitomo
Chemical -CDT
(Polymer)
Micro-emissive displays
(MED)
2Delta OptroelectronicsMP3
3Cyclotech AMT-Pain
relief device
4Philips-shaver
5Dai Nippon-Epson demo
40”
6Samsung SEC
7Sharp
8Toppon Printing
9National University of
Singapore
1CDT/Litrex/ULVAC
114” at CDT(a-Si)
45
OLED REVENUE FORECAST
OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)
PM
$528M 650M
700M
745M
--
--
--
AM OLED
$675M 1.95B 3.25B 3.95B --
--
--
(iSupply-December 2007)
OLED TV
$2M
2008 GLG SEMINAR
$2M
$10M
$50M
OLT
$200M $600M $1.4B
46
OLED SHIPMENT FORECAST
OLED Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Developed From:OLED Summit 2006)
PM OLED
AM OLED
88M
31M
113M 135M 158M -99M 184M 215M --
---
---
(iSupply –Dec 2007)
OLED TV
2008 GLG SEMINAR
3K
3K
50K
100K 250K 1.2M 2.8M
OLT
47
2’ X 2’ ORGANIC WHITE PANEL
LIGHTING
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Duggal et.al: SID-06 Digest
48
OLED TECHNICAL BARRIERS
• Image burn-in (Image sticking)
• Long Life reported only in labs and in test samples
and not established in manufactured product
• Life ages faster than other colors
• Long delays in promised product introduction
• Some companies closed due to technical barriers
• Major Backplane problem (a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
49
AM OLED: a-Si TFT vs LTPS TFT
Parameter
a-Si TFT
LTPS TFT
Mobility
Low, high power
poor apert ratio
high, integ
Integ driver easy
Uniformity
Good
Vth. Variation-compen
Stability
Vth. Shifts
Good
Large display
Mfg
OK (Gen 7)
Problem with Gen 4
Mask step
4 or 5
6 or 7
Manufacturability
Excellent
Maturing
TFT for OLED is still a manufacturing problem
2008 GLG SEMINAR
KyuhaOLT
Chung et.al- ID Magazine 2/2006
50
KONICA MINOLTA ‘OLED’ LAMP
Efficiency: 64 lm/w
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT OLED-info.com;
51
also various sources.
40” OLED PROTOTYPE (SAMSUNG)
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
52
Info-OLED.com-web site
COMMERCIAL 11” ‘OLED TV’-SONY
2008 GLG SEMINARRobert Jan Visser:SID-Display
OLT Applications Conference
2007
53
CHARACTERISTICS OF SONY 11” OLED TV
(PERSONAL)
• Thickness: 3 mm
• Contrast: 1:1,000,000 (LCD-1:17,000)
• Color gamut: 108% NTSC in u’v’plane
• Pixel: 960 x 540
• Life: 30,000 hrs
• Brightness-not given
• Power consumption: 45 W
• Cost: $1800
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
54
INK-JET PRINTED 13” POLYMER OLED TV
2008 GLG SEMINAR
FPM Budzelaar et.al-Journal of SID, 14/15, 2006
OLT
55
BENDABLE ‘OLED’
2008 GLG SEMINARRobert Jan Visser:SID-Display
OLT Applications Conference
2007
56
FLEXIBLE ‘OLED’
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Robert Jan Visser:SID-Display
Applications Conference 2007
OLT
57
OUTLOOK FOR LED AND OLED
LED:
• MARKET POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTING AND
BACKLIGHTING IS BRIGHT
• TECHNICALLY SUPERIOR
• PENENTRATION BARRIER IS ‘PRICE’
OLED:
• TECHNOLOGY BARRIER AND PRICE BARRIER
EXIST
• PRESSURE FROM LCD IS HUGE
• TEST MARKETING FOR OLED TV JUST STARTED
• MANUFACTURING IS YET TO MATURE
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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58
Appendix
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
59
LIGHT ‘TRAPPING’
LED Magazine, Aug. 2006
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
60
NOVEL LED STRUCTURE ----Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Developed from Lumiled/Philips-Flip chip
assembly – OLT
Strategies in Light 2007
61
FAMOUS BLUE LED
Naoki Shibata- Asia Display/IDW ’01, Proceedings of 21st IDRC /8th International
display workshop,- pp. 1036-1038, Oct. 16-19, 2001, Nagoya, Japan.
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
62
CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE
Φ (T2) = Φ (T1). Є- k∆T,
Φ (T2) is the luminous flux at junction
temperature T2,
Φ (T1) is the luminous flux at junction
temperature T1,
k is temperature coefficient and ∆T is the
change in junction temperature.
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
63
CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE
λ d (T jf) = λ d (Tji) + ∆Tj . 0.1 (nm / 0C)
λ d Dominant wavelength
Tjf the new junction temperature,
Tji is the initial junction temperature
and ∆Tj is the change in junction temperature.
In other words for every 10 C raise in junction
temperature there is a change of 1 nm in
dominant wavelength λ d.
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
64
CONSEQUENCES OF JUNCTION
TEMPERATURE…Contd
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
LED Magazine
65
Cost vs performance
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Lumiled web site
66
KEY WHITE LED PATENT
(US Patent# 5,998,925 by Nichia)
A light emitting device, comprising a light
emitting…… …component comprises a nitride
compound semiconductor:
Ini Gaj Alk N; (i+j+k = 1)
at least one element selected from the group consisting
of Y, Lu, Se, La, Gd and Sm, and 2) at least one
element selected from the group consisting of Al, Ga
and In, and being activated with cerium.
YAG: Ce
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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67
REMOTE PLASMA ‘CVD’ ON GLASS WAFER
Developed fromBluglass web site
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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68
REMOTE PLASMA CVD-Bluglass Company)
•Lower growth temperatures < 700C
•Low cost substrates (Glass)
•Thinner devices (0.5 μm LED layer)
•No Ammonia
•Lower material consumption
•Large area deposition easily scalable (6”, 8”)
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
69
GaN: GLASS WAFER
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Developed fromBluglass web site 70
COMPARISON OF SPECTRUM
2008 GLG SEMINAR
OLT
Developed fromBluglass web site 71
GLASS WAFER: LIGHT EMISSION
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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72
Bluglass web site
TWO LAYER WHITE ‘OLED’
Light
Luminance at 5V : 17000 cd/m2
Luminous efficiency at100 cd/m2 : 15 lm/w Yasuhisa Kishigami et.alAsia Display/IDW’01, Japan
CIE
: SEMINAR
x = 0.3; y = 0.38
2008
GLG
OLT
73
THREE ‘OLEDS’ IN SERIES
Toshio Matsumoto
et.al- SID’ 03 Digest
2008 GLG SEMINAR
Luminance
Current density
Operating voltage
Quantum efficiency
OLT
:10,000 cd/m2
:7.5 mA/cm2
:40 V
:75 cd/A
74
TYPICAL ‘OLED’ LAYERS
2008 GLG SEMINAR
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75