Kauplemine
Oliver Ait ja Joel Kukemelk
aprill 2007
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Kauplemise põhivead (1)
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Liiga suured panused…
“I'm making big bets on one or two stocks
because if I'm right, I'll make a lot of
money, but if I'm wrong, I'll be in real
trouble.”
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Kauplemise põhivead (2)
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Stop-lossi leebe kasutamine!
“When my trade goes against me, I'm afraid
to sell for a loss because I might be selling
at the bottom, and the stock will take off
without me. But sometimes the stock keeps
falling to a point that I can't afford to take
the loss.”
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Kauplemise põhivead (3)
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Riski-tulu suhe peab olema atraktiivne.
Keeruline põhjendada tehingu õigsust, kui
suhtarv 1st väiksem.
Paikapandud hinnasiht on oluline!
Risk/reward ratio
1:1 000 000??!
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Kauplemise põhivead (4)
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Liiga vähe infot…liiga palju kõhutunnet.
Peaaegu alati on keegi, kel on toimuva
liikumise kohta rohkem infot.
Välja peaksime jõudma…
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Interaktiivne kauplemine
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Interaktiivne info ühildamine sellega, mille
kohta on juba eeltöö ära tehtud.
Seoste loomine, ettevõtte tegevust
mõjutavate tegurite, konkurentide
tundmine.
Konkreetne näide…
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC
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Tulemused ja CC 19. jaanuaril kell 9 ET
Mida me enne tulemusi peame teadma?
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4.
Sektori trend, ootused
Kas tahame sektorist osta või müüa?
Sektori ettevõtted ja nende iseärasused
Tehniline pilt
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC
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Paar päeva enne CC-d nafta hind langes,
OIH tõusis.
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Ootused olid madalad
Otsime ostu võimalust
Seosed…
Tehniline pilt ostuks sobiv
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC
SLB enne CC-d ehk 18.01.07
Ootused
madalad
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Schlumbergeri (SLB) CC
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„We have every confidence in the deepwater!”
„New rigs start to come out from the shipyards
in 2008 and 2009!”
“The world is realizing that the period of
cheap hydrocarbon energy has ended and new
and higher sustained levels of investment are
necessary to meet demand and guarantee
future supplies.”
RIG, DRQ, DO, FTI, NE, CAM…
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Schlumberger (SLB)
19.01.07 - Avanemine eelmise päeva tippudel!
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Transocean (RIG)
Avanemine: 74.54
Stop-loss: 74.1
Siht: 75.8
Risk/reward 1:2.8
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Dril Quip (DRQ)
18.01 – 19.01
Avanemine: 35.54
Stop-loss: 34.9
Siht: 36.4
Risk/reward 1:1.4
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FMC Technologies (FTI)
Avanemine: 57.35
Stop-loss: 56.6
Siht: 58.8
Risk/reward 1:2
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Schlumberger (SLB) – 20.04.07
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AAPL - PALM ja RIMM
09.01.07
Nõrkus hoolimata
sellest, et AAPL langes…
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Apple (AAPL) – 09.01.07
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12.20 ET - Jobs: “We 're only talking about
the mac today“
12.43 ET - Apple Computer introduces
mobile phone
12.44 ET - Apple Computer: Also introduces
widescreen iPod and internet communicator
12.44 ET - Apple Computer says Iphone is
widescreen iPod and phone
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Research in Motion (RIMM)
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Apple saaga jätkub:
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22. märts uudis:
Prudential survey checks indicate upcoming Apple iPhone will likely
use an OLED display from Samsung-SDI
Prudential notes that their checks indicate that the upcoming Apple
iPhone will likely use an OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) display
from Samsung-SDI. Firm thinks OLEDs could cannibalize, if not
ultimately replace LCD displays in notebooks PCs, desktop PC
monitors, cellphones and even TVs. With thinner displays and better
power dissipation, mobile handset and notebook PC markets are
candidates for mass adoption - so the OLED opportunity appears
compelling. Firm says the industry is still climbing down the
manufacturing yield curve, and mass market adoption is likely several
years away. Firm believes OLEDs are a disruptive technology, and
investors should have it on their radar screen.
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Universal Display Corporation (PANL)
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Universal Display Corporation engages in the research, development, and
commercialization of organic light emitting diode (OLED) technologies for
use in various flat panel display and other applications. Mcap 528m, Käive
12m, short 18.5%.
10-K: 2006, three manufacturers purchased our proprietary OLED
materials for use in commercial OLED display products: Samsung SDI Co.,
Ltd. of South Korea, AU Optronics Corporation of Taiwan and Tohoku
Pioneer Corporation of Japan.
In addition, we are working with many other companies who are
evaluating our OLED technologies and materials for possible use in
commercial OLED display and lighting products, including Seiko Epson
Corporation, Konica Minolta Technology Center, Inc. and Sony
Corporation.
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Medtronic (MDT) ja Greatbatch (GB)
SITUATSIOON:
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21. november MDT kvartalitulemused: Medtronic beats by $0.03 : Reports Q2 (Oct)
earnings of $0.59 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of
$0.56; revenues rose 11.2% year/year to $3.08 bln vs the $2.97 bln consensus. Co
reports I.C.D. revs of $764 mln, up 4% YoY.
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Conference Call: Expects U.S. ICD market to rebound with a chance to return to
double digit growth rates in 2008
Prognoos: says growth profile was hurt by a slowdown in the US ICD market;
anticipates continues growth; says reiterating $12.2-12.6 bln rev growth as is still
reasonable as they believe ICD market will continue to grow 'although slowly';
believe Y08 revs of $13.7-14.0 bln remains reasonable, Reuters consensus is $13.7
bln; Y08 EPS $2.65-2.70, Reuters consensus is $2.67
Võeti turuosa konkurendilt Boston Scientific (BSX)
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Võimalus:
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Tulemused olid üllatavad kogu sektori jaoks. Ootused madalad ning ICD
turu paranemine ilmselgelt avas paljude investorite/kauplejate silmad.
Buy Greatbatch (GB). Mcap 560m, käive 271m. Short % 10. Tegevusala:
Südamerütmurite patareide/komponentide arendamine ja tootmine.
Suuremate klientide hulka kuuluvad suured tootjad nagu Guidant (GDT),
St. Jude Medical (STJ), Medtronic (MDT), Biotronik, Cyberonics (CYBX).
2005. aastal moodustasid Guidant, St. Jude Medical ja Medtronic kokku
70% ettevõtte kogukäibest.
Sõltuvus ICD turust ning varasem korrelatsioon suurtootjatega. Madalad
ootused ja vähetuntud ettevõte.
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LAM Research Corp. (LRCX)
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LRCX (Mcap 6.5B, käive 2.2B, Tegevusala: Semiconductor Equipment &
Materials). Tulemused 17. jaanuaril: On conf call, co guides MarQ to
revs of $635-650 mln vs $638 mln consensus; EPS to $1.03-1.07 vs 1.14
consensus. Co notes pushouts in the March qtr. For the full yr, co
guides 2007 EPS to 4.10-4.30 vs 4.47 consensus...
Kommentaar: Cowen notes that LRCX shipments were lower than
anticipated as some customers are pushing out deliveries from March
to June or beyond. Though it well may be a short-term pause, they
think LRCX likely to get hit hard on commentary.
Firm thinks AMAT (25B mcap), KLAC (11B mcap), and NVLS (4B mcap)
on front-end are likely to be impacted a bit too. They note that LRCX
margins under a little pressure…
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Protsess:
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Võimalused:
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Advanced Energy (AEIS, Mcap <1B, käive 410m) supplies
sub-components to manage power, flow, and temperature for
capital equipment used in the production of semiconductors and
other related end markets such as data storage and flat panel
displays.
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10 - K: Our products are sold worldwide to more than 100 OEMs
and directly to more than 500 end users. Our ten largest
customers accounted for 63%, 57% and 60% of our sales in
2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively.
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Applied Materials, our largest customer, accounted for 30%, 23%
and 28% of our sales in 2006, 2005 and 2004, respectively.
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Lisaks MKSI (Applied Materials accounted for approximately 18%, 20% and
18% of our net sales for the years ended December 31, 2005, 2004 and 2003,
respectively)
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Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT – Mcap 372,7m, käive 337m) provides gas
and liquid delivery systems used by the chip equipment makers such as AMAT,
LRCX and NVLS.
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Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
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HPQ tugevad tulemused 20. veebruaril. Hewlett-Packard beats by $0.03, beats
on revs, guides Q2 revs above consensus, ups Y07 rev guidance, guides Y07 EPS
above consensus: Co issues upside revenue guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.63-0.64
vs. $0.63 consensus; sees Q2 revs of $24.5 bln vs. $24.1 bln consensus. Co issues
upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $2.60-2.65 vs. $2.56 consensus; sees FY07
revs of $98-99 bln, up from previous guidance of $97 mln, vs. $97.45 bln consensus.
Põhjused: tugev sülearvutite müük. The company benefited from strong momentum
in the IPG and PSG segments as sales of notebooks and printers drove the
quarter.
While they are impressed by the gains in the PSG segment, as the share gains have
come mostly at the expense of Dell. HP has also been able to maintain relatively
stable pricing while it gains share. CFO says there will be an increase in margins
due to supply corrections, and for the year, they don't see any significant changes
that will affect margins.
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Tugev sülearvutite müük võib hästi mõjuda komponentidetootjatele, eriti
kui HPQ marginaalid sarnase hinnapoliitika juures ei kasvanud.
Võimalused?
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O2MICRO (OIIM) (toodab energiamuundureid LCD ekraanide valgustamiseks,
ühendusi arvuti erinevate komponentide vahel). Mcap 298m, käive 124m. Our
integrated circuits have been incorporated into products sold by Acer, Apple
Computer, Dell, Fujitsu, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo, LG Electronics, NEC, Samsung
Electronics, Sharp, Sony and Toshiba, among others.
Sanmina (SANM) (toodab (kaabli)ühendusi, mälumooduleid, lüliteid, sulgureid).
Mcap 1.9B, Käive 10.9B, Sales to our ten largest customers accounted for 60.8% of
our fiscal 2006 net sales, 63.9% of our fiscal 2005 net sales and 69.3% of our fiscal
2004 net sales. For fiscal 2006, three customers, IBM, Lenovo and HP, accounted
for greater than 10% of our net sales at 12.8%, 10.5% and 10.0%, respectively.
For fiscal 2005, only one customer, IBM, accounted for greater than 10% of our net
sales at 23.2%.
Synaptics (SYNA) – touchpads. Mcap 612m, käive 215m, Klientideks Acer, Asustek,
Dell, ECS, Fujitsu, Gateway, IBM. HPQ, Lenovo, NEC, Samsung, Philips, Toshiba jne.
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Sirf Tech (SIRF) tulemused 30. jaanuaril. SiRF Technology beats by $0.03,
revs above consensus: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.03
better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 36.7%
year/year to $74.2 mln vs the $69.9 mln consensus. SIRF reports gross
margin 55.3% vs ~54.4% street expectation. SiRF Technology on call sees
Q1 EPS of $0.20-$0.23 vs $0.20 consensus, sees revs of $65-$68 mln vs
$65.03 mln consenus. Co also sees FY07 revs of $320-$330 mln vs
$305.4 mln consensus.
Oodati suhteliselt head kvartalit, pigem tagasihoidlikku prognoosi ning
Motorola kehvad tulemused on aktsiale halvasti mõjunud. Üllatus
tugevate prognooside osas oli siiski päris suur. Võimalused?
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Seosed:
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SIRF: marketing of semiconductor and software products that are
designed to enable location-awareness utilizing global positioning system
(GPS). Mcap 1.5B, Käive 247m. During 2006, the following customers
represented 10% or more of our net revenue: Promate, Garmin and
Gateway/Foretek.
Garmin (GRMN): design, manufacture, and marketing of navigation,
communications, and information devices that are enabled by global
positioning system (GPS). Mcap 11.8B, käive 1.77B, short 10%.
NAVTEQ (NVT) engages in the creation, updating, enhancing, licensing,
and distribution of digital map database in North America and Europe. It
provides digital map information, and related software and services.
Garmin on NVT klient (15%, käibest). Mcap 3B, Käive 582m, short 5%.
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