Matakuliah
Tahun
Versi
: J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen
: 2005
: 01/00
Pertemuan 19
Model Pengambilan Keputusan
1
Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
• Memahami proses pengambilan
keputusan termasuk aspek-aspek yang
mempengaruhi proses
2
Outline Materi
•
•
•
•
Informas sebagai barang ekonomi
Sifat dan tipe keputusan
Model pengambilan keputusan
Tahapan pengambilan keputusan
3
Informasi sebagai suatu barang ekonomi
• Rantai transformasi:
– DATA - INFORMATION - KNOWLEDGE -- WISDOM
• Informasi adalah sebuah special good
–
–
–
–
–
Biaya produksi tinggi
Biaya reproduski quasi null
Biaya tetap tinggi, namun biaya marjinal rendah
Nilai informasi (waktu, volume, ketidakpastian)
Harga Jual informasi tergantung pada nilai/manfaat,
bukan pada biaya.
Sifat Dasar Decision Making
• Pengambilan Keputusan
– Adalah tindakan memilih salah satu alternatif dari
sekumpulan alternatif yang tersedia.
• Proses Pengambilan Keputusan
– Rangkaian Proses mengenali, mendefinisikan situasi,
identifikasi alternatif, memilih alternatif terbaik, dan
implementasinya.
– Sebuah keputusan yang efektif adalh yang
mengoptimalkan beberapa faktor seperti laba,
penjualan, kesejahteraan karyawan dan pangsa
pasar.
– Para manajer membuat keputusan berkenaan
dengan masalah dan kesempatan.
5
Tipe Keputusan
• Keputusan Terprogram
– Suatu Keputusan yang cukup terstruktur
(recurs) yang kerap berulang.
• Contoh : Memanaskan mesin mobil di pagi hari.
• Keputusan Tak terprogram
– Suatu keptusan yang relatif dan terstruktur
dan terjadi sangat jarang dibandingkan
keputusan teprogram.
• Contoh: Memilih tujuan wisata saat liburan.
6
Tipe Keputusan
• Routine and Non-Routine Decisions
• Objective vs. Bounded Rationality
• Level of Certainty
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Kondisi Decision-Making
• Decision Making Under Certainty
– Suatu kondisi dimana manajer memahami dengan
baik alternatif yang tersedia serta kondisi berkaitan
dengan setiap alternatif.
• Decision Making Under Risk
– Suatu kondisi berkenaan dengan ketersediaan
alternatif dan potensi manfaat serta biaya resiko.
• Decision Making Under Uncertainty
– Suatu kondisi dimana manajer tidak mengetahui
seluruh alternatif, resiko setiap alternatif, atu
konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif.
8
Uncertainty apa saja yang ada?
• Uncertainty karena Teknologi
– Dell and LiOn battery
– Will it work? Will Sony as the only supplier have enough
capacity?
• Uncertainty berkenaan permintaan
– Economic recession or boom, interest rates, inflation,
consumer preferences
– Expansion of Saturn’s Spring Hill Plant
• Uncertainty karena persaingan
– Competitive actions and reactions
– Success of international expansion by Wal-Mart
– Success of new beverages of Coke and Pepsi
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Isu lainnya dalam Decision
Making
Incentives for
Decision Makers
Short-Run
Versus
Long-Run
Decisions
10
Isu lainnya dalam Decision
Making
Pitfalls yang harus dihindari
Sunk
costs.
Allocated
fixed costs.
Unitized
fixed costs.
Opportunity
costs.
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Kondisi Decision-Making
Kondisi yg
dihadapi
manajer...
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Level of ambiguity and chances of making a bad decision
Lower
Moderate
Higher
12
Pandangan Rasional dalam
Decision Making
• Model Klasik Decision Making
• obtain complete
When faced with a
and perfect information
decision situation,
• eliminate uncertainty
managers should. . .
• evaluate everything
rationally and logically
. . . and end up with
a decision that best
serves the interests
of the organization.
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Figure 9.2
Langkah Dasar Rational Decision Making
1. Identifikasi seluruh opsi (termasuk doing
nothing).
2. Kuantifikasi nilai (biaya) konsekuensi
yang mungkin timbul untuk setipa opsi
3.
Prediksi
likelihood
untuk
setiap
konsekuensi.
4. Integrasi seluruh kemungkinan.
14
Kompenen Decision Making
• State /Kondisi
– Adalah kondisi aktual yang mungkin terjadi di
masa mendatang
• Keputusan / Decision
– Berbagai pilihan dimana seorang decision
maker dapat memilih satu diantaranya
• Outcomes /hasil
– Hasil dari suatu kombinasi states dan
decisions
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Tahapan menuju Good Decisions
•
•
•
•
Definisikan problem dan influencing factors
Tetapkan decision criteria
Pilih model pengambilan keputusan
Identifikasi dan evaluasi alternatif
menggunakan model yang dipilih
• Pilih alternatif terbaik
• Implementasi keptusan
• Evaluasi hasil
16
Models
• Memungkinkan manajer melakukan analisis
“What if”.
• Disusun untuk manajemen masalah dan
manajemen input
• Force a consistent and systematic approach to
the analysis of problems
• Require managers to be specific about
constraints and goals relating to a problem
• Help reduce the time needed in decision
making
17
Keterbatasan Models
They
• may be expensive and time-consuming to
develop and test
• are often misused and misunderstood (and
feared) because of their mathematical and
logical complexity
• tend to downplay the role and value of
nonquantifiable information
• often have assumptions that oversimplify the
variables of the real world
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The Decision-Making Process
Quantitative Analysis
Problem
Logic
Historical Data
Marketing Research
Scientific Analysis
Modeling
Decision
Qualitative Analysis
Emotions
Intuition
Personal Experience
and Motivation
Rumors
19
Ways of Displaying
a Decision Problem
• Decision trees
• Decision tables
Outcomes
States of Nature
Alternatives
Decision Problem
20
Steps in the Rational
Decision-Making Process
Step
Detail
Example
1. Recognizing and
defining the decision
situation
Some stimulus indicates that a
decision must be made. The
stimulus may be positive or
negative.
A plant manager sees that
employee turnover has increased by 5 percent.
2. Identifying alternatives
Both obvious and creative
alternatives are desired. In
general, the more important
the decision, the more alternatives should be considered.
The plant manager can increase wages, increase benefits, or change hiring standards.
3. Evaluating alternatives
Each alternative is evaluated
to determine its feasibility, its
satisfactoriness, and its
consequences.
Increasing benefits may not be
feasible. Increasing wages and
changing hiring standards may
satisfy all conditions.
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Table 9.1a
Steps in the Rational
Decision-Making Process (cont’d)
Step
Detail
Example
4. Selecting the best
alternative
Consider all situational factors,
and choose the alternative that
best fits the manager’s
situation.
Changing hiring standards will take
an extended period of time to cut
turnover, so increase wages.
5. Implementing the
chosen alternative
The chosen alternative is
implemented into the
organizational system.
The plant manager may need
permission from corporate
headquarters. The human resource
department establishes a new wage
structure.
6. Following up and
evaluating the
results
At some time in the future, the
manager should ascertain the
extent to which the alternative
chosen in step 4 and
implemented in step 5 has
worked.
The plant manager notes that, six
months later, turnover has dropped
to its previous level.
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Table 9.1b
Evaluating Alternatives in the
Decision-Making Process
Is the alternative
feasible?
Yes
Is the alternative
satisfactory?
Yes
Are the alternative’s
consequences
affordable?
No
No
No
Eliminate from
consideration
Eliminate from
consideration
Eliminate from
consideration
Yes
Retain for further
consideration
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Figure 9.3
Behavioral Aspects of
Decision Making (cont’d)
• Bounded Rationality
– The concept that decision makers are limited by their
values and unconscious reflexes, skills, and habits.
• Satisficing
– The tendency to search for alternatives only until one
is found that meets some minimum standard of
sufficiency to resolve the problem.
• Coalition
– A political force in decision making which consists of
an informal alliance of individuals or groups formed to
achieve a goal.
24
Behavioral Aspects of
Decision Making (cont’d)
• Intuition
– An innate belief about something without conscious
consideration.
• Escalation of Commitment
– A decision maker is staying with a decision even
when it appears to be wrong.
• Risk Propensity
– The extent to which a decision maker
is willing to gamble when making
a decision.
25
Behavioral Aspects of
Decision Making (cont’d)
• Ethics and Decision Making
– Individual ethics (personal beliefs about right
and wrong behavior) combine with the
organization’s ethics to create managerial
ethics.
– Components of managerial ethics:
• Relationships of the firm to employees
• Employees to the firm
• The firm to other economic agents
26
Group and Team Decision Making
in Organizations
• Forms of Group Decision Making
– Interacting groups or teams
• are the most common form of decision-making groups which
consists of an existing group or newly formed team
interacting and then making a decision.
– Delphi groups
• are sometimes used for developing a consensus of expert
opinion from a panel of experts who individually contribute
through a moderator.
– Nominal groups
• are a structured technique designed to generate creative and
innovative ideas through the individual contributions of
alternatives that are winnowed down through a series of
rank-ordering of the alternatives to reach a decision.
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Advantages and Disadvantages of
Group and Team Decision Making
Advantages
Disadvantages
1. More information and knowledge
are available.
1. The process takes longer than individual decision making, so it is costlier.
2. More alternatives are likely to be
generated.
3. More acceptance of the final
decision is likely.
4. Enhanced communication of the
decision may result.
2. Compromise decisions resulting from
indecisiveness may emerge.
3. One person may dominate the group.
4. Groupthink may occur.
5. Better decisions generally
emerge.
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Table 9.2
Managing Group and Team
Decision-Making Processes
• Managers Can Promote the Effectiveness of
Group and Team Decision Making
– Being aware of the pros and cons of having a group
or team make a decision.
– Setting deadlines for when decisions must be made.
– Avoid problems with dominance by managing group
membership.
– Have each group member individually critically
evaluate all alternatives.
– As a manager, do not make your position known too
early.
– Appoint a group member to be a “devil’s advocate.”
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– Hold a follow-up meeting to recheck the decision.