2nd Annual Regional Safety Conference
Emerging Vehicle Safety Technology
October 18, 2007
Stephen Oesch
IIHS
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)
Identify and develop countermeasures to reduce
human and economic losses on our nation’s highways
Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI)
Gather, process, and publish data on ways in which
insurance losses vary among different kinds of vehicles
IIHS
IIHS
www.iihs.org
Motor vehicle crashes, 2006
NHTSA
 5,930,000 police-reported crashes
 2,575,000 injured
 42,642 killed
Additional crashes that aren’t reported to police but
result in insurance costs
IIHS
Auto Insurance losses from motor vehicle crashes
2006
 20 million claims
 $27 billion in collision coverage losses
 $18 billion in property damage liability coverage losses
 $32 billion in injury claim losses
– $22 billion in BI coverage
– $6 billion in PIP coverage
– $4 billion in MedPay coverage
IIHS
Everyone is curious about the car of the future
IIHS
Continuum of safety
Reducing crashes and their consequences
IIHS
Normal driving
Multiple sensors monitor driver and vehicle to identify
potential hazards
IIHS
Reducing the risk in high-risk situations
ESC helps vehicle stay on intended path
IIHS
Reducing risk in potentially dangerous situations
Warn driver and reduce vehicle speed
IIHS
When crash is inevitable
Prepare safety systems for impact
IIHS
Crash sequence begins
Deploy airbags
IIHS
After the crash
Automatically notify emergency personnel of crash
severity and location
IIHS
Normal driving
Multiple sensors monitor driver and vehicle to identify
potential hazards
IIHS
2006 BMW 5 series
Parking sensors
$1,520
IIHS
2006 BMW 5 series
Adaptive cruise sensor
$1,908
IIHS
Reducing the risk in high-risk situations
ESC helps vehicle stay on intended path
IIHS
IIHS
Percent of vehicle models with ESC
50
standard
optional
40
30
20
10
0
1995
96
97
98
99
2000
01
02
model year
IIHS
03
04
05
06
07
Federal rule on ESC
April 2007
 ESC will be required on new passenger vehicles
– September 1, 2008: 55% must comply
– September 1, 2009: 75% must comply
– September 1, 2010: 95% must comply
– September 1, 2011: 100% must comply
 Maneuver test requirement
 Hardware and software requirements
IIHS
Reducing risk in potentially dangerous situations
Warn driver and reduce vehicle speed
IIHS
IIHS
IIHS
Success of technologies depends on answers
to three questions
 What is size and nature of crash problem addressed?
 What kinds of information will elicit right responses
from drivers?
 How will driver behavior change in response
to technology?
IIHS
What accounts for spectacular success of ESC?
 ESC prevents many run-off-road and rollover crashes,
types that often result in serious injuries and deaths
 ESC takes action for driver
IIHS
Lane departure warning system
Camera mounted behind rearview mirror looks at road ahead
and monitors vehicle position in relation to lane markings. If
vehicle wanders out of lane, driver is warned with sound,
visual, and/or haptic signals.
IIHS
Study of lane departure warning systems
 About 6 million crashes involving passenger vehicles
in US each year
 Assumptions about system
– alert always given when changing lanes unintentionally
(no turn signal)
– estimated effect on crashes based on effectiveness of
rumble strips
IIHS
About 5,637,000 crashes would not be affected
 Rear-end crashes
 Angle crashes
 Crashes involving intentional lane changes or
avoiding obstacles
 Crashes due to vehicle component failure
(e.g., tire blowout)
 Crashes due to roadway defects (e.g., potholes)
 Crashes due to speeding/reckless driving
IIHS
Of remaining 363,000 crashes, estimated reductions if all
passenger vehicles had lane departure warning systems
IIHS
estimated system
effectiveness
estimated crash
reductions
single-vehicle
drift-off-road
crashes
33%
56,000
drift-out-of-lane
head-on
crashes
22%
7,000
drift-out-of-lane
sideswipe
crashes
25%
40,000
IIHS
Reflector posts
IIHS
Effects of adaptive headlights are unknown
Estimated effects based on reflector posts
 Reflector posts help improve view of narrow and
curved roads ahead
 Studies indicate that reflector posts increase nighttime
driving speeds
 Some evidence indicates that reflector posts increase
nighttime injury crashes
IIHS
Summary
 Assessing potential benefits of crash avoidance
technologies isn’t easy
 Most crash databases lack sufficient detail to
determine magnitude of problem addressed by
each technology
 Multiple technologies often introduced simultaneously
 Changes in driver behavior difficult to predict
IIHS
When crash is inevitable
Prepare safety systems for impact
IIHS
Mercedes Pre-Safe
IIHS
Crash sequence begins
Deploy airbags
IIHS
Automakers are
accelerating introduction
of side airbags with head
protection; one reason
is that they know
consumers are paying
attention to results
of IIHS tests
IIHS
Rearseat cushion
IIHS
Percent of vehicle models in U.S. with side airbags
as optional or standard equipment
By type of side airbag, 1997-2007
60
50
head and chest
chest
head
40
30
20
10
0
1997
IIHS
98
99
2000
01
02
year
03
04
05
06
07
After the crash
Automatically notify emergency personnel of crash
severity and location
IIHS
Automatic crash notification systems
IIHS
BMW
BMW Assist
GM
OnStar
Lexus
Lexus Link
Maybach
Tele Aid
Mercedes-Benz
Tele Aid
Rolls Royce
Rolls Royce Assist
Volvo
On Call
For more information:
www.iihs.org
IIHS