The Global Economy, Rising Risk and Marine Insurance Markets Risk and Reward in a Troubled World San Francisco Board of Marine Underwriters San Francisco, CA May 1, 2014 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute 110 William Street New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520 Cell: 917.453.1885 bobh@iii.org www.iii.org Outlook: Property/Casualty Modest growth will continue in 2014 (~ 4.5% DPW) Exposure growth tied primarily to overall GDP growth/key sector drivers Rates remain in positive territory though more concern for commercial lines in second half of the year Underlying loss cost trends remain manageable Very well capitalized Personal Lines: Stable Commercial Lines: Negative Reinsurance: Stable For primary insurers, falling reinsurance pricing and alternative capital are benefits Traditional reinsurers challenged by continued entry of new capital and accumulation of “organic” capital Regulatory/Legislative concerns manageable TRIA, Systemic risk, FIO & general federal “intrusions” 2 Risk & Insurance U.S. and Global Perspective Marine Insurance Is Very Sensitive to the Global Economic and Political Environment 3 5 Major Categories for External Global Risks, Uncertainties and Fears: Insurance Solutions 1. Economic Risks 2. Geopolitical Risks 3. Environmental Risks 4. Technological Risks 5. Societal Risks While risks can be broadly categorized, none are mutually exclusive Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2014; Insurance Information Institute. 4 Multitude of Exogenous Factors Influence Growth, Performance & Cyclicality Economic Issues in US, Europe Weakness in China/Emerging Economies Political Upheaval in the Ukraine, Middle East Argentina, Venezuela, Thailand Trade sanctions (e.g., Iran, Russia) Political Gridlock in the US, Europe, Japan Fiscal/Monetary Imbalances/Low Interest Rates Unemployment Resurgent Terrorism Risk Cyber Attacks Sabre Rattling (e.g., US-China, China-Japan) Severe Natural Disaster Losses Climate Change/Sea Level Rise Environmental Degradation (Over)Regulation: Systemic Risk? Are “Black Swans” everywhere or does it just seem that way? 5 Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact, 2007—2014: Insurance Can Help With Most In 2014, economic and environmental issues dominated severity concerns Concerns Over the Impacts of Economics Risks Remained High in 2014, but Societal, Environment and Technological Risks Also Loom Large Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2014; Insurance Information Institute. 7 Gap Between Economic and Insured Losses: 1980—2013 The gap between economic and insured losses is growing—suggesting both a problem and an opportunity Sources: Guy Carpenter, Swiss Re; Insurance Information Institute . 8 Globalization: The Global Economy Creates and Transmits Cycles & Risks Globalization Is a Double Edged Sword— Creating Opportunity and Wealth But Potentially Creating and Amplifying Risk Emerging vs. “Advanced” Economies 9 GDP Growth: Advanced & Emerging Economies vs. World, 1970-2015F GDP Growth (%) 10.0 8.0 World output is forecast to grow by 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015. The world economy shrank by 0.6% in 2009 amid the global financial crisis Emerging economies (led by China) are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2014 and 5.3% in 2015. 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0) Advanced economies are expected to grow at a modest pace of 2.2% in 2014 and to 2.3% in 2015. 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F 0.0 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook , April 2014; Insurance Information Institute. World 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 7.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 3.0% 2.7% 1.9% 2% 2.2% 4% 1.8% 6% 2.6% The Eurozone is ending 3.0% 8% Growth in China has outpaced the US and Europe 4.6% 10% US growth should accelerate in 2014 9.3% Real GDP Growth Forecasts: Major Economies: 2011 – 2015F -2% US -0.4% -0.6% 0% Euro Area 2011 UK 2012 2013F Latin America 2014F Canada China 2015F Growth Prospects Vary Widely by Region: Growth Returns to Most Areas Even as China Slows; Some strengthening in Latin America Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/2014 issue); IMF; Insurance Information Institute. 11 Real GDP Growth Forecasts: Selected Economies: 2011 – 2015F Taiwan 2011 2012 Russia 2013 2014F Brazil Australia 3.1% 3.9% 1.4% 3.9% 3.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.4% 3.6% 2.4% 1.9% 2.3% 0.9% 2.7% 4.3% 3.4% 4.6% 5.4% 6.0% 4.0% India 1.6% 1.0% 2.2% 1.3% 2.0% 3.3% 3.7% 7.7% S. Korea 4.1% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7% 2.0% 3.6% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Strong economies in smaller industrialized nations will bolster demand for products, services, international trade and insure Mexico 2015F Growth Is Expected Accelerate in Most of the World in 2014 and 2015 Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/2014 issue); Insurance Information Institute. 12 Global Industrial Production (2000-Feb. 2012) Global industrial production has been volatile but is growing 12 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2012; Insurance Information Institute. 13 World GDP and Industrial Production (2005-Feb. 2015F) Global industrial production should continue to rise as should exports and imports of manufactured goods Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2014; Insurance Information Institute. 14 World Trade Volume: 1948—2015F Global trade volume will exceed $19 trillion in 2014, an increase of nearly 160% over the past decade $ Billions $25,000 $20,000 $17,930 $18,468 $19,262 $20,283 $15,000 $10,000 $7,380 $3,676 $5,000 $59 $84 $157 $579 1948 1953 1963 1973 $1,838 $0 1983 1993 2003 2012 2013E 2014F 2015F Insurance Regulation Will Necessarily Become More Transnational, Following Patterns of Global Economic Growth, the Creation of New Insurable Exposures and International Capital Flows Sources: World Trade Organization data through 2012 from International Trade Statistics 2013; Insurance Information Institute estimates and forecasts for 2013-2015 based on IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts as of April 2014. 15 World Trade Volume Growth*, 2012 – 2015F World trade volume growth is expected to accelerate modestly through 2015—translating into $2.25 trillion in net trade growth 6% 5.3% 5% 4.3% 4% 3% 2.8% 3.0% 2% 1% 0% 2013 2014F 2015F *Goods and services. Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook , April 2014; Insurance Information Institute. 2016F 16 World Trade Volume: IMPORTS 2010 – 2015F Growth (%) Advanced Economies Emerging Economies 18% 16% 14% 12% 11.5% Import growth in Advanced Economies is expected to accelerate in 2014 15.3% 10% Import growth in emerging economies outpaces Advanced Economies by a wide margin but will slow in 2014 8.8% 8% 6% 4.3% 3.5% 4% 2% 5.6% 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 4.5% 1.1% 1.4% 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 6.3% 5.8% 5.2% 0% 2010 2011 2010 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2014 ); Insurance Information Institute. 2011 17 World Trade Volume: EXPORTS 2010 – 2015F Growth (%) Advanced Economies 16% 14% Export growth in advanced economies should accelerate in 2014 12.2% 12% Emerging Economies 14.7% Export growth in emerging economies has decelerated sharply 10% 8% 6.7% 5.3% 6% 4.2% 4% 4.8% 2.1% 2.3% 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 6.2% 5.0% 4.2% 4.4% 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2% 0% 2010 2011 2010 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2014); Insurance Information Institute. 2011 18 Country Shares of World Merchandise Exports The US, China, Japan and Western Europe lead the world in merchandise exports Source: World Trade Organization accessed 4/30/14 at: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm ; Insurance Information Institute. 19 Potential Output of Total Economy: US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan, 2000-2060F $ 2005 PPP Growth in economic output will be concentrated in certain developing economies such as China and India China will likely become the world’s largest economy between 2025 and 2030 Source: OECD; Insurance Information Institute . 20 Ocean Marine Overview Vessel Losses Have Dropped though Underwriting Performance Remains Volatile 21 Ferry Sewol Sinking in South Korea Is One of the Greatest Maritime Tragedies in Recent History The Sewol and Costa Concordia disasters will impact risk management in the maritime sector 22 Total Vessel Losses by Top 10 Regions: 2002 – 2013 S. China, Indo China, Indonesia and the Philippines was the region that saw the most losses (296) from 2002 through 2013. The U.S. eastern seaboard dropped of the list as there were no total losses last year. Total Vessel Losses 296 215 207 417 50 Others 51 Bay of Bengal 51 West Indies 73 W. Medit. 82 W. Africa Coast Arabian Gulf & Approaches British Isles, N. Sea, Eng. Channel, Japan, Korea and N. China E. Medit., Black Sea 96 E. Africa Coast 135 S. China, Indo China, Indonesia & 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 There were 1,673 total vessel losses from 2002 through 2013. The top 10 regions account for about 75% of all total losses Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Statistics as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. 23 Country Shares of World Merchandise Exports Asia accounts for the largest share of total losses, followed by the Middle East and E. Mediterranean Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Statistics as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. 24 Total Vessel Losses by Year: 2002 – 2013 Total losses have declined by nearly 46% over the past 11 years Total Vessel Losses 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 173 174 170 152 151 154 150 128 121 117 94 89 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 While total vessel losses are down sharply over the past decade, the question is whether this trend will continue Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Service as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. 25 Total Vessel Losses by Top 10 Regions: 2013 S. China, Indo China, Indonesia and the Philippines was the region that saw the most losses (18) in 2013, but this was down from 29 in 2012 Total Vessel Losses 17 3 3 3 Others 4 W. Medit. 5 British Isles, N. Sea, Eng. Channel, Bay of Canadian Arctic, Alaska Arabian Gulf & Approaches W. Africa Coast 6 E. Medit., Black Sea 18 8 E. Africa Coast 9 Bay of Bengal 18 S. China, Indo China, Indonesia & Philippines Japan, Korea, N. China 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 There were 94 total vessel losses in 2013—about 8 per month Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Statistics as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. 26 Total Losses by Type of Vessel: 2013 Cargo vessels accounted for more than 1/3 of 94 total vessel losses in 2013 32 14 6 ly / O ffs h g or e ff on /R ol lR Su pp ng ss e 2 ol l-o er er er y 2 Fi sh on ta i C al /P 6 C he m ic ne r t ro du c ar go C ul k B ar ge B 6 4 3 Pa 7 Tu 12 O th 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Statistics as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. 27 Causes of Total Losses: 2002 – 2013 745 312 109 30 Wrecked/stranded (aground) Piracy 6 Machinery damage/Failure 7 Missing/Overdue Fire/Explosion Foundered (sunk, submerged) Contact (e.g., harbor wall) 20 Hull damage (holed, cracked, etc.) 85 Sources: Lloyd’s List Intelligence Casualty Statistics as published in Safety and Shipping Review 2014, Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty; Insurance Information Institute. Miscellaneous 199 160 Collision (involving vessels) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Foundered vessels accounted for 45% of the 1,673 total vessel losses from 2002-2103 28 Global Insurance Premium Growth Trends Growth Is Uneven Across Regions and Market Segments 29 Distribution of Nonlife Premium: Industrialized vs. Emerging Markets, 2012 2012, $Billions Premium Growth Facts Emerging market’s share of nonlife premiums increased to 17.3% in 2012 from 14.3% in 2009. The share of premiums written in the $2 trillion global nonlife market remains much larger (82.7%) but continues to shrink. Industrialized Economies $1, 647.5 The financial crisis and sluggish recovery in the major insurance markets will accelerate the expansion of the emerging market sector 82.7% 17.3% Emerging Markets $344.1 Developing markets now account for about 40% of global GDP but just 17.3% of nonlife premiums Sources: Swiss Re sigma No.3/2013; Insurance Information Institute research. 31 World N. America Latin America Life Non-Life Total 13.0% 10.5% 13.8% -1.0% -0.1% 3.9% 4.8% 4.2% 1.9% 13.0% 8.1% 8.8% 5.8% 4.9% W. Central & Advanced Emerging Europe E. Europe Asia Asia Middle East & Central Asia Africa -4.9% -10% Growth in Advanced Asia (incl. China) markets was third highest in 2012 -0.4% -5% -2.0% -3.1% 0% 4.8% 5.1% Latin America growth was the strongest in 2012 -0.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 5% 2.6% 10% 2.3% 15% 11.7% 20% 7.8% 16.8% Premium Growth by Region, 2012 Oceania Global Premium Volume Totaled $4.613 Trillion in 2012, up 2.4% from $4.566 Trillion in 2011. Global Growth Was Weighed Down by Slow Growth in N. America and W. Europe and Partially Offset by Emerging Markets Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 3/2013. 32 Non-Life Insurance: Global Real (Inflation Adjusted) Premium Growth, 2012 Real growth in nonlife insurance premiums was faster in China than the US Market Life Non-Life Total Advanced 1.8 1.5 1.7 Emerging 4.9 8.6 6.8 World 2.3 2.6 2.4 Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 3/2013. 33 Global Real (Inflation Adjusted) Nonlife Premium Growth: 1980-2010 Average: 1980-2010 Real growth rates Industrialized Countries: 3.8% Emerging Markets: 9.2% 20% Overall Total: 4.2% Nonlife premium growth in emerging markets has exceeded that of industrialized countries in 27 of the past 31 years, including the entirety of the global financial crisis.. 15% 10% 5% 0% -10% Real nonlife premium growth is very erratic in part to inflation volatility in emerging markets as well as a lack of consistent cyclicality 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -5% Total Source: Swiss Re, sigma, No. 2/2010. Industrialised countries Emerging markets 34 Gap Between GDP Growth and Reinsurance Limit in Asia-Pacific Region: 2004—2013 The gap between GDP and reinsurance limit in Asia is growing—suggesting the region is “under-reinsured” Sources: Guy Carpenter, World Bank, IMF; Insurance Information Institute . 36 The Unfortunate Nexus: Opportunity, Risk & Instability Most of the Global Economy’s Future Gains Will be Fraught with Much Greater Risk and Uncertainty than in the Past 41 Political Risk in 2013: Greatest Business Opportunities Are Often in Risky Nations Problems in the Ukraine will intensify political risk in several former Soviet republics Latin and South America also present insurers with growth opportunities but political instability has increased markedly The fastest growing markets are generally also among the politically riskiest, including East and South Asia and Africa Source: Aon PLC; Insurance Information Institute. 42 Terrorism Risk in 2013: Greatest Business Opportunities Are Often in Risky Nations Latin and South America have modest terrorist threats though Brazil is elevated Terrorism remains a greater concern in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia Source: Aon PLC; Insurance Information Institute. 43 P/C (Re)Insurance Industry Financial Overview 2013: Best Year in the Post-Crisis Era Performance Improved with Lower CATs, Strong Markets 44 $63,784 $35,074 $19,456 $3,043 $28,672 $35,204 $62,496 Net income in 2013 was up substantially (+81.9%) from 2012 $44,155 $38,501 $30,029 $20,559 $20,598 $10,870 $3,046 $10,000 $19,316 $20,000 $5,840 $30,000 $14,178 $40,000 $21,865 $50,000 $30,773 $60,000 2013 ROAS was 10.3% $36,819 $70,000 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 6.1% 2013 ROAS1 = 10.3% $24,404 $80,000 $65,777 P/C Net Income After Taxes 1991–2013 ($ Millions) $0 -$10,000 -$6,970 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 •ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.3% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute 13 Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2013* ROE History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017 25% 1977:19.0% 1987:17.3% 20% 2006:12.7% 1997:11.6% 2013: 9.8 % 15% 9 Years 10% 5% 2011: 4.7% 0% 1975: 2.4% 1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2% 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 -5% *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-13 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2013 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best. A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What It Once Was: Investment Impact on ROEs Combined Ratio / ROE 15.9% 110 A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~7.0% in 2012, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10, 10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979 106.5 14.3% 12.7% 105 100.6 100.1 100.8 100 10.9% 101.2 99.5 15% 102.4 101.0 12% 97.5 96.7 95.7 95 8.8% 9.6% 7.4% 92.7 7.9% 6.2% 9.8% 4.7% 90 4.3% 85 18% 9% 6% Lower CATs helped ROEs in 2013 3% 0% 80 1978 1979 2003 2005 2006 2007 Combined Ratio 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ROE* Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s Depressed Investment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs * 2008 -2013 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2013 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 96.1; 2012 =103.2, 2011 = 108.1, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO Verisk Analytics data. ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance vs. Fortune 500, 1987–2013E* (Percent) P/C Profitability Is Both by Cyclicality and Ordinary Volatility 20% Katrina, Rita, Wilma 15% Low CATs 10% Sept. 11 5% 0% Hugo Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years Andrew Northridge 4 Hurricanes Financial Crisis* Sandy Record Tornado Losses -5% 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2013. 2013 Fortune 500 figure is I.I.I. estimate. Sources: ISO, Fortune; Insurance Information Institute. 48 Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971—2014F (Percent) 1975-78 1984-87 25% 2000-03 Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3Year Decline Since 1930-33. 20% 2014F: 4.0% 15% 2013: 4.6% 2012: +4.3% 10% 5% 0% 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 -5% Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute. 51 3.4% 3.7% 6.2% 7.0% 6.0% 6.1% 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.7% 3.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 3.9% 4% 4.3% 5% 4.0% 6% 4.4% 7% 5.5% 8% 6.0% 9% 5.6% 10% 8.6% P/C growth is expected to remain fairly stable through 2015 7.5% (Percent) 8.0% Growth in Direct Written Premium by Line, 2013-2015F* 3% 2% 1% 0% All Lines Personal Lines Commercial Lines Personal Homeowners Commercial Auto Auto 2013F Source: Conning. 2014F WC CMP GL 2015F 52 Average Commercial Rate Change, All Lines, (1Q:2004–4Q:2013) (Percent) 4% -1% -6% -11% -16% -0.1% -3.2% -5.9% -7.0% -9.4% -9.7% -8.2% -4.6% -2.7% -3.0% -5.3% -9.6% -11.3% -11.8% -13.3% -12.0% -13.5% -12.9% -11.0% -6.4% -5.1% -4.9% -5.8% -5.6% -5.3% -6.4% -5.2% -5.4% -2.9% -0.1% 0.9% 2.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 5.0% 5.2% 4.3% 3.4% 2.1% 9% Pricing as of Q4:2013 was positive for the 10th consecutive quarter. Gains are likely to continue into 2014. Q2 2011 marked the last of 30th consecutive quarter of price declines 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 KRW Effect Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially. Source: Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers; Insurance Information Institute 53 P/C UNDERWRITING Underwriting Losses in 2013 Much Improved After High Catastrophe Losses in 2011/12 54 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2013* As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases 120 115.8 110 Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Cyclical Deterioration Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases 107.5 Sandy Impacts Lower CAT Losses 106.3 101.0 100.8 100.1 99.3 98.4 100 102.4 100.8 96.7 95.7 92.6 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 * Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2012. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO. 55 Ocean Marine vs. Commercial Lines Combined Ratio: 1989–2012 90 103.6 104.2 98.9 96.4 102.4 100.8 107.9 108.9 103.4 91.0 113.7 93.6 98.7 110.2 104.1 102.0 97.2 102.5 118.4 122.3 119.4 118.8 107.6 102.0 104.1 110.4 109.7 115.5 112.3 107.2 111.1 102.2 110.2 105.4 91.1 95 100.0 100 89.6 105 92.4 110 All Commercial Lines 109.5 109.5 107.9 112.5 115 110.2 120 97.3 125 114.2 108.7 118.2 109.4 Ocean Marine Average: 1989-2012 Ocean Marine: 104.9 All Commercial Lines: 107.0 85 80 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Ocean Marine has marginally outperformed Commercial Lines overall over the period from 1989 – 2012 Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute. 56 Combined Ratios by Predominant Business Segment, 2013 vs. 2012* The combined ratios for both personal and commercial lines improved substantially in 2013 (Percent) 106 104 2012 2013 104.8 102.3 102.3 101.1 102 100 98 98.7 97.6 96.7 96 94.3 94 92 90 All Lines Personal Lines Predominating *Excludes mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. Source: ISO/PCI; Insurance Information Institute Commercial Lines Predominating Diversified Insurers 59 Some Key Drivers in the US Economy Economic Factors Driving Exposure Growth and Insurer Performance 62 US Real GDP Growth* -7% 5.0% -0.3% The remainder of 2014 into 2015 are expected to see a modest acceleration in growth -8.9% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 07:1Q 07:2Q 07:3Q 07:4Q 08:1Q 08:2Q 08:3Q 08:4Q 09:1Q 09:2Q 09:3Q 09:4Q 10:1Q 10:2Q 10:3Q 10:4Q 11:1Q 11:2Q 11:3Q 11:4Q 12:1Q 12:2Q 12:3Q 12:4Q 13:1Q 13:2Q 13:3Q 13:4Q 14:1Q 14:2Q 14:3Q 14:4Q 15:1Q 15:2Q 15:3Q 15:4Q -9% -5.3% -5% Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction was severe -3.7% -3% -1.8% -1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 4.1% 2.0% 1.3% 3.1% 0.4% 1.1% 2.5% 4.1% 2.4% 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 1% 1.4% 3% 1.3% 5% The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8% 1.1% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 0.5% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 7% 4.1% Real GDP Growth (%) Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2014/15 as GDP Growth Accelerates Modestly and Gradually Benefits the Economy Broadly * Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 4/14; Insurance Information Institute. 63 Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Too High, But Falling January 2000 through March 2014, Seasonally Adjusted (%) 18 "Headline" Unemployment Rate U-3 16 Unemployment + Underemployment Rate U-6 U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 12.7% in Mar. 2014. 8% to 10% is “normal.” 14 12 10 8 6 4 As the unemployment rate approaches 6%, the Fed will begin signaling on shortterm rates 2 “Headline” unemployment was 6.7% in March 2014. 4% to 6% is “normal.” Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is now clearly improving. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 64 US Unemployment Rate Forecast 2007:Q1 to 2015:Q4F* 8% 7% 6% 5% Unemployment peaked at 10% in late 2009. 9.3% 9.6% 10.0% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 8.9% 9.1% 9.1% 8.7% 8.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.3% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 9% Jobless figures have been revised slightly downwards for 2014/15 8.1% 10% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 6.1% 6.9% 11% Rising unemployment eroded payrolls and WC’s exposure base. Unemployment forecasts have been revised slightly downwards. Optimistic scenarios put the unemployment as low as 6.0% by Q4 of this year. 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3 12:Q4 13:Q1 13:Q2 13:Q3 13:Q4 14:Q1 14:Q2 14:Q3 14:Q4 15:Q1 15:Q2 15:Q3 15:Q4 4% * = actual; = forecasts Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (4/14 edition); Insurance Information Institute. 65 Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, 2003-2013* Billions of Dollars New Construction peaks at $911.8. in 2006 Trough in 2010 at $500.6B, after plunging 55.1% ($411.2B) $1,000 $900 $800 $15.0 2013: Value of new pvt. construction hits $667.5B, up 33% from the 2010 trough but still 27% below 2006 peak $613.7 $700 $600 $500 $311.5 $298.1 $400 $300 $261.8 Non Residential Residential $200 $100 $356.0 $238.8 $0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13* Private Construction Activity Is Moving in a Positive Direction though Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Peak; Residential Dominates *2013 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of December. Sources: US Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute. 66 Dollar Value* of Manufacturers’ Shipments Monthly, Jan. 1992—Dec. 2013 $ Millions $500,000 The value of Manufacturing Shipments in Dec. 2013 was $492.7B—a near record high. $400,000 $300,000 Ja n92 Ja n93 Ja n94 Ja n95 Ja n96 Ja n97 Ja n98 Ja n99 Ja n00 Ja n 01 Ja n 0 Ja 2 n 03 Ja n 04 Ja n 05 Ja n 06 Ja n 07 Ja n 08 Ja n 09 Ja n 10 Ja n 1 12 1 -J an 13 -J an $200,000 Monthly shipments in Dec. 2013 exceeded the pre-crisis (July 2008) peak. Manufacturing is energy-intensive and growth leads to gains in many commercial exposures: WC, Commercial Auto, Marine, Property, and various Liability Coverages. *seasonally adjusted; Dec. 2013 is preliminary; data published February 4, 2014. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/ 69 Manufacturing Growth for Selected Sectors, 2013 vs. 2012* Growth (%) Non-Durables: +0.2% Durables: +3.4% 14.0% 8.1% Manufacturing of durable goods was especially strong in 2012 but weakened in 2013 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% Textile Products Food Products Non-Durable Mfg. Transportation Equip. Computers & Electronics Electrical Equip. Machinery Fabricated Metals Primary Metals Plastics & Rubber -0.5% -1.8% -3.4% Wood Products 6.9% 3.1% 2.7% Chemical 0.4% 1.3% Petroleum & Coal 3.1% Durable Mfg. All Manufacturing 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 1.7% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Manufacturing Is Expanding—Albeit Slowly—Across a Number of Sectors that Will Contribute to Growth in Insurable Exposures Including: WC, Commercial Property, Commercial Auto and Many Liability Coverages *Seasonally adjusted; Date are YTD comparing data through November 2013 to the same period in 2012. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/ 70 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 2/30/2 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 12,250 12,000 11,750 11,500 11,460 11,460 11,466 11,497 11,531 11,539 11,558 11,548 11,554 11,555 11,577 11,590 11,624 11,662 11,682 11,707 11,715 11,724 11,747 11,760 11,762 11,770 11,769 11,797 11,841 11,870 11,910 11,920 11,926 11,935 11,957 11,943 11,925 11,931 11,938 11,951 11,965 11,988 11,984 11,977 11,972 11,965 11,948 11,963 11,993 12,011 12,046 12,053 12,061 12,080 12,079 Manufacturing Employment, Jan. 2010—March 2014* (Thousands) Since Jan 2010, manufacturing employment is up (+619,000 or +5.4%) and still growing. 11,250 Manufacturing employment is a surprising source of strength in the economy. Employment in the sector is at a multi-year high. *Seasonally adjusted; Feb. and Mar. 2014 are preliminary Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 71 Business Investment: Expected to Accelerate, Fueling Commercial Exposure Growth Accelerating business investment will be a potent driver of commercial property and liability insurance exposures and should drive employment and WC payroll exposures as well (with a lag) 9% 8% 7.8% 6.3% 7% 6% 4.9% 5% 4% 3% 2.5% 2% 1% 0% 2013 2014F 2015F Source: IHS Global Insights as of Jan. 13, 2014; Insurance Information Institute. 2016F 72 12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed Health Care Health Sciences Energy (Traditional) Alternative Energy Petrochemical Agriculture Natural Resources Technology (incl. Biotechnology) Many industries are poised for growth, though insurers’ ability to capitalize on these industries varies widely Light Manufacturing Insourced Manufacturing Export-Oriented Industries Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking, Pipelines) 73 U.S. Natural Has Imports and Exports, 1990 - 2040 Trillions of Cubic Feet The US is now the largest gas producer in the world, though Russia is the largest exporter. The US needs to invest in its pipeline and LNG infrastructure and expedite regulatory approval to realize its full export potential Sources: US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview; ;Insurance Information Institute. 74 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 2/30/2 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 156.4 156.4 156.7 157.6 158.7 157.8 158.0 159.5 160.0 161.5 161.2 161.2 163.1 164.4 166.6 169.3 170.1 171.0 172.5 173.6 176.3 178.2 178.5 180.9 181.9 183.1 184.8 185.2 185.7 186.8 187.6 188.0 188.0 188.2 190.0 191.7 191.9 193.4 192.4 192.6 193.1 193.3 195.0 196.5 199.7 200.6 203.0 204.1 205.3 207.7 208.1 Oil & Gas Extraction Employment, Jan. 2010—March 2014* (Thousands) Oil and gas extraction employment is up 33.1% since Jan. 2010 as the energy sector booms. Domestic energy production is essential to any robust economic recovery in the US. *Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. Highest since Aug. 1986 150 78 CYBER RISK Cyber Risk is a Rapidly Emerging Exposure for Businesses Large and Small in Every Industry NEW III White Paper: http://www.iii.org/assets/docs/pdf/paper_CyberRisk_2013.pdf 79 Data Breaches 2005-2013, by Number of Breaches and Records Exposed # Data Breaches/Millions of Records Exposed 700 656 222.5 Millions 662 619 220 200 600 180 498 500 160 446 127.7 419 447 400 300 140 87.9 66.9 321 157 100 80 35.7 200 120 60 16.2 19.1 22.9 40 17.3 20 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 # Data Breaches 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* # Records Exposed (Millions) The Total Number of Data Breaches (+38%) and Number of Records Exposed (+408%) in 2013 Soared * 2013 figures as of Jan. 1, 2014 from the ITRC updated to an additional 30 million records breached (Target) as disclosed in Jan. 2014. Source: Identity Theft Resource Center. U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update 2013 Was a Welcome Respite from the High Catastrophe Losses in Recent Years 87 U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses $73.4 ($ Billions, $ 2012) $33.6 $35.0 $12.9 $7.5 $10.5 $29.2 $33.7 $16.3 $7.6 $6.1 $11.6 $14.3 $3.8 $11.0 $12.6 $8.8 $10 $8.0 $20 $4.8 $30 $14.0 $40 $26.4 $37.8 $50 $34.7 $60 $14.4 $70 2012 was the third most expensive year ever for insured CAT losses $11.5 $80 $0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13* 2012 Was the 3rd Highest Year on Record for Insured Losses in U.S. History on an Inflation-Adj. Basis. 2011 Losses Were the 6th Highest. YTD 2013 Running Well Below 2011 and 2012 YTD Totals. Record tornado losses caused 2011 CAT losses to surge *Through 12/31/13. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 88 88 Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2013* 8.7 8.9 8.1 3.4 3.4 2012 2010 2008 2006 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.3 1.6 2002 2004 1.6 2000 1.0 1998 1996 5.0 5.4 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.1 1990 1992 1.2 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 1968 1966 3.0 3.6 0.4 1964 1962 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.9 1960 1 0 5.9 1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 6.1E* 8 7 3 2 8.8 10 9 6 5 4 Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses reached a record high in 2012 Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio by Decade 1994 Combined Ratio Points The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades *2010s represent 2010-2013. Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO (1960-2011); A.M. Best (2012E) Insurance Information Institute. 89 Top 10 States for Insured Catastrophe Losses, 2013 $ Millions $1,995 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oklahoma let the country in insured CAT losses in 2013 $1,509 $1,190 $909 $907 $677 In di an a eo rg ia G eb ra sk a $762 $593 Lo ui si an a M Source: The Property Claim Services (PCS) unit of ISO, a Verisk Analytics company. $773 N is si ss ip pi do ol or a C Ill in oi s Te xa s in ne so ta M O kl ah om a $805 90 Top 5 States by Insured Catastrophe Losses in 2012* (2012, $ Billions) $12,000 $10,000 NY and NJ let the US in CAT losses in 2012 due Sandy $9,756 $8,000 $6,369 $6,000 $4,000 $2,318 $2,000 $1,511 $1,440 $0 New York New Jersey *Includes catastrophe losses of at least $25 million. Sources: PCS unit of ISO; Insurance Information Institute. Texas Kentucky Colorado 91 Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1993–20121 Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $14.9 Fires (4), $6.5 Other (5), $0.2 1.7% Geological Events, $18.4 4.7% 3.8%0.1% Terrorism, $24.8 6.3% Winter Storms, $27.8 7.1% Tornado share of CAT losses is rising Tornadoes (2), $140.9 Insured cat losses from 1993-2012 totaled $391.7B, an average of $19.6B per year or $1.6B per month 40.4% Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $158.2 36.0% Wind losses are by far cause the most catastrophe losses, even if hurricanes/TS are excluded. 1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2012 dollars. 2. Excludes snow. 3. Does not include NFIP flood losses 4. Includes wildland fires 5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation. Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit. 93 Top 16 Most Costly Disasters in U.S. History (Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions) Hurricane Sandy became the 5th costliest event in US insurance history $60 $50 $48.7 $40 $30 Includes Tuscaloosa, AL, tornado Includes Joplin, MO, tornado $23.9 $24.6 $25.6 $18.8 $20 $10 $0 $9.2 $11.1 $8.7 $7.8 $7.5 $7.1 $6.7 $4.4 $5.6 $5.6 Irene (2011) Jeanne (2004) Frances (2004) Rita Tornadoes/Tornadoes/ Hugo (2005) T-Storms T-Storms (1989) (2011) (2011) Hurricane Irene became the 12th most expense hurricane in US history in 2011 Ivan (2004) Charley (2004) Wilma (2005) $13.4 Ike (2008) Sandy* Northridge9/11 Attack Andrew (2012) (1994) (2001) (1992) Katrina (2005) 12 of the 16 Most Expensive Events in US History Have Occurred Over the Past Decade *PCS estimate as of 4/12/13. Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments to 2012 dollars using the CPI. 94 Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2013* (Insured Losses, 2012 Dollars, $ Billions) 2012 insured CAT Losses totaled $60B; Economic losses totaled $140B, according to Swiss Re $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 5 of the top 14 most expensive catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 3 years (2010-2012) $48.7 Hurricane Sandy is now the 6th costliest event in global insurance history $11.1 $13.4 $13.4 $9.6 $9.2 $8.7 $8.5 $8.1 $7.8 $38.6 $23.9 $24.6 $25.6 $18.8 $13.4 $0 Hugo (1989) Winter Storm Daria (1991) Chile Quake (2010) Ivan Charley Typhoon Wilma Thailand New Ike Sandy Northridge WTC (2004) (2004) Mirielle (2005) Floods Zealand (2008) (2012)** (1994) Terror (1991) (2011) Quake Attack (2011) (2001) *Figures do not include federally insured flood losses. **Estimate based on PCS value of $18.75B as of 4/12/13. Sources: Munich Re; Swiss Re; Insurance Information Institute research. Andrew Japan Katrina (1992) Quake, (2005) Tsunami (2011)** 95 Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2013 Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2013) 250 There were 128 natural disaster events in 2013 Number 200 150 100 22 50 19 81 6 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Meteorological (storm) Hydrological (flood, mass movement) Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire) 106 Losses Due to Natural Disasters in the US, 1980–2013 (2013 Dollars, $ Billions) 200 150 (Overall and Insured Losses) 2013 losses were far below 2011 and 2012 and were 44% lower than the average from 2000-2012 Indicates a great deal of losses are uninsured (~40%50% in the US) = Growth Opportunity 2013 CAT Losses Overall : $21.8B Insured: $12.8B 100 50 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Overall losses (in 2012 values) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Insured losses (in 2013 values) 107 Natural Loss Events: Full Year 2013 World Map Winter Storm Christian (St. Jude) Europe, 27–30 October Flash floods Canada, 8–9 July Floods Meteorite impact Europe, 30 May–19 June Russian Federation, 15 February Earthquake Floods China, 20 April Canada, 19–24 June Hailstorms Germany, 27–28 July Floods Typhoon Fitow China, Japan, 5–9 October Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 9–16 September USA, 18–22 May Typhoon Haiyan Philippines, 8–12 November Severe storms, tornadoes USA, 28–31 May Floods India, 14–30 June Hurricanes Ingrid & Manuel Australia, 21–31 January Mexico, 12–19 September 880 Loss events Floods Earthquake (series) Pakistan, 24–28 September Heat wave India, April–June Natural catastrophes Selection of significant Natural catastrophes Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Meteorological events (storm) Source: Munich Re Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – as of January 2014. Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Extraterrestrial events (Meteorite impact) 109 Natural Disasters Worldwide, 1980 – 2013 (Number of Events) There were 880 natural disaster events globally in 2013 compared to 905 in 2012 1 000 Number 800 600 400 200 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Meteorological (storm) Hydrological (flood, mass movement) Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire) 110 Losses Due to Natural Disasters Worldwide, 1980–2013 (Overall & Insured Losses) (Overall and Insured Losses) (2013 Dollars, $ Billions) 10-Yr. Avg. Losses US$ bn 400 Overall : $184B 2013 Losses Insured: $56B Overall : $125B Insured: $34B 300 200 There is a clear upward trend in both insured and overall losses over the past 30+ years 100 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Overall losses (in 2013 values) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE Insured losses (in 2013 values) 111 Terrorism Update TRIA’s Success Consequences of Expiration Download III’s Terrorism Insurance Report at: http://www.iii.org/white_papers/terrorismrisk-a-constant-threat-2014.html 112 Loss Distribution by Type of Insurance from Sept. 11 Terrorist Attack ($ 2013) ($ Billions) Other Liability $4.9 (12%) Property Life WTC 1 & 2* $1.2 (3%) $4.4 (11%) Aviation Liability $4.3 (11%) Event Cancellation $1.2 (3%) Aviation Hull $0.6 (2%) Workers Comp $2.2 (6%) Property Other $7.4 (19%) Biz Interruption $13.5 (33%) Total Insured Losses Estimate: $42.9B** *Loss total does not include March 2010 New York City settlement of up to $657.5 million to compensate approximately 10,000 Ground Zero workers or any subsequent settlements. **$32.5 billion in 2001 dollars. Source: Insurance Information Institute. Terrorism Insurance Take-up Rates, By Year, 2003-2013 80% 70% 58% 60% 59% 59% 61% 62% 64% 62% 62% 57% 49% 50% 40% 30% TRIA’s high take-up rates, availability and affordability have benefitted businesses, workers and the entire US economy since the program’s enactment 27% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 In 2003, the first year TRIA was in effect, the terrorism take-up rate was 27 percent. Since then, it has increased steadily, remaining in the low 60 percent range since 2009. Source: Marsh Global Analytics, 2014 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report, April 2014 and earlier editions. 117 Terrorism Insurance Take-Up Rates by State for 2013* The overall US takeup rate for terrorism coverage was 62% in 2013 and ranged from a lows of 41% in Michigan to a high of 84% in Massachusetts (where demand likely increased due to the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing) *Data for 27 states with sufficient data. Source: Marsh 2014 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report; Insurance Information Institute. 118 SURPLUS/CAPITAL/CAPACITY 2013 Recorded Yet Another Record High in the Primary and Reinsurance Sectors 124 Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2013:Q4 ($ Billions) Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses 2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak $700 $653.3 $650 $624.4 $614.0 $607.7 $600 $559.2 $521.8$517.9$515.6 $512.8 $505.0 $496.6 $487.1 $478.5 $490.8 $463.0 13:Q4 13:Q3 13:Q2 13:Q1 12:Q4 12:Q3 12:Q2 12:Q1 11:Q4 10:Q4 10:Q3 10:Q2 10:Q1 09:Q4 09:Q1 08:Q4 08:Q3 08:Q2 08:Q1 07:Q4 07:Q3 07:Q2 07:Q1 06:Q4 11:Q3 Surplus as of 12/31/13 stood at a record high $653.3B $437.1 11:Q2 $450 11:Q1 $455.6 $400 $550.3 $538.6 $511.5 09:Q3 $500 $559.1 $544.8 $540.7 $530.5 09:Q2 $550 $583.5$586.9 $570.7 $567.8 $566.5 The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.73 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history. 2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business . Sources: ISO, A.M .Best. The P/C insurance industry entered 2014 in very strong financial condition. 125 U.S. INSURANCE MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS, P/C SECTOR, 2002-2012 (1) ($ Millions) $40,000 $35,221 M&A activity in the P/C sector remains below pre-crisis levels. 90 80 $35,000 Transaction values 60 $25,000 50 $20,353 $20,000 $16,294 $13,615 $15,000 40 $12,458 30 $9,264 $10,000 20 $6,419 $3,507 $5,000 $486 Number of transactions 70 $30,000 $4,651 10 $425 $0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (1) Includes transactions where a U.S. company was the acquirer and/or the target. Source: Conning proprietary database. 129 REINSURANCE MARKET CONDITIONS Ample Capacity as Alternative Capital is Transforming the Market—And Pushing Down Prices 130 Global Reinsurance Capital (Traditional and Alternative), 2007 - 2013 Total reinsurance capital reached a record $540B in 2013, up 58.8% from 2008. Of that, $50B (9.3%) is alternative capacity, up 163% from $19B since 2008 Source: Aon Benfield Reinsurance Market Outlook, April 1, 2014; Insurance Information Institute. Reinsurance Pricing: Rate-on-Line Index by Region, 1990 – 2014* Lower CATs and a flood of new capital has pushed reinsurance pricing down in most regions, including the US *As of Jan. 1. Source: Guy Carpenter Reinsurer Combined Ratios (Aon Benfield Aggregate), 2007 - 2013 Reinsurers posted a combined under 90 in 2013, the best result since 2009 Source: Aon Benfield Reinsurance Market Outlook, April 1, 2014; Insurance Information Institute. Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit (As of Year End) Alternative Capacity accounted for approximately 14% or $45 billion of the $316 in global property catastrophe reinsurance capital as of mid-2013 (expected to rise to ~15% by year-end 2013) Source: Guy Carpenter Alternative Capacity Development, 2001—2013:H1 Source: Guy Carpenter; Mid-Year Market Report, September 2013; Insurance Information Institute. Catastrophe Bonds: Issuance and Outstanding, 1997- 2014:Q1* 99 00 01 11 $18,516.7 7,083.0 10 5,852.9$14,835.7 $12,508.8 $12,139.1 07 $12,185.0 06 1,410.0 966.9 98 1,991.1 1,729.8 1,219.5 1,142.8 4,108.8 1,130.0 97 Financial crisis depressed issuance 4,600.3 984.8 $2,000 846.1 $4,000 633.0 $6,000 $4,040.4 $2,950.0 $8,000 $3,450.0 $10,000 3,391.7 $12,000 2,729.2 $14,000 6,996.3 $16,000 $4,904.2 Risk capital outstanding reached a record high in 2013 4,693.4 $8,541.6 $18,000 $14,024.2 $20,000 $12,043.6 Risk Capital Amount ($ Millions) $0 02 Risk Capital Issued Risk Capital Outstandng at Year End 03 04 05 08 09 12 13 14:Q1 CAT bond issuance reached a record high in 2013 Catastrophe Bond Issuance Is Approaching Pre-Crisis Levels While Risk Capital Outstanding Stands at an All-Time Record *Through Jan. 31, 2014. Source: Guy Carpenter; Insurance Information Institute. Questions Arising from Influence of Alternative Capital What Will Happen When Investors Face Large-Scale Losses? Does ILS Have a Higher Propensity to Litigate? Short-term focus could contribute to disputes Large share of triggered transactions ended up in dispute How Low Will ROLs Be Pushed? Does the New Interconnectedness with Capital Markets Lend Credence to the Suggestion that Reinsurance Is a Systemic Risky Business? Will Alternative Capital Drive Consolidation Among Traditional Reinsurers? Has the mating dance begun? Endurance/Aspen 145 INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing 146 Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–20131 ($ Billions) $60 $54.6 $52.3 $50 $40 $51.2 $49.5 $49.2 $47.1 $38.9 $38.7 $37.1 $36.7 01 02 $39.6 $47.6 $48.0 $47.4 12 13 Investment earnings are running below their 2007 pre-crisis peak $30 00 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Investment Income Fell in 2012 and 2013 Due to Persistently Low Interest Rates, Putting Additional Pressure on (Re) Insurance Pricing 1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends... Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute. U.S. Treasury Security Yields: A Long Downward Trend, 1990–2014* 9% Yields on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes have been essentially below 5% for a full decade. 8% 7% 6% U.S. Treasury yields plunged to historic lows in 2013. Only longer-term yields have rebounded. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Recession 2-Yr Yield 10-Yr Yield '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 10-year or shorter durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come. *Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through February 2014. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 152 New Waves of Regulations 2008 - Present Global Crisis and Regulatory Response 168 Global Financial Crises & Global Systemic Risk The Global Financial Crisis Prompted the G-20 Leaders to Request that the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Assess the Systemic Risks Associated with SIFIs, Global-SIFIs in Particular In July 2013, the FSB Endorsed the International Association of Insurance Supervisors Methodology for Identifying Globally Systemically Important Insurers (G-SIIs) For Each G-SII, the Following Will Be Required: (i) Recovery and resolution plans (ii) Enhanced group-wide supervision (iii) Higher loss absorbency (HLA) requirements G-SIIs as Designated by the FSB as of July 2013: Allianz SE AIG Assicurazioni Generali Aviva Axa MetLife Ping An Prudential Financial Prudential plc 171 Global Financial Crises & Global Systemic Risk…There’s More… IAIS Also Plans to Develop the First-Ever Risk-Based Global Insurance Capital Standards by 2016 Would be Tested in 2017-2018; Implemented in 2019 Would Be Included as Part of ComFrame and Apply to Internationally Active Insurance Groups (IAIGs): ~50 IAIGs Designations Likely While Flexibility May Exist within the Standards, Doubts in the US Are Likely to Be Strong Concern that the standards may be bank-centric Questions as to whether such standards are even needed: “Although US state insurance regulators continue to have doubts about the timing, necessity and complexity of developing a global capital standard given regulatory differences around the globe, we intend to remain fully engaged in the process to ensure that any development augments the strong legal entity capital requirements in the US that have provided proven and tested security for US policyholders and stable insurance markets for consumers and industry.” --NAIC President Ben Nelson (P/C 360, Oct. 16, 2013) 173 P/C Insurer Impairment Frequency vs. Combined Ratio, 1969-2012 120 Combined Ratio after Div P/C Impairment Frequency 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 110 1.2 1.0 105 0.8 100 0.6 Impairment Rate Combined Ratio 115 0.4 95 2012 impairment rate was 0.69%, down from 1.11% in 2011; the rate is lower than the 0.82% average since 1969 0.0 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 90 0.2 Impairment Rates Are Highly Correlated With Underwriting Performance and Reached Record Lows in 2007; Recent Increase Was Associated Primarily With Mortgage and Financial Guaranty Insurers and Not Representative of the Industry Overall Source: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute 176 Insurance Information Institute Online: www.iii.org Thank you for your time and your attention! Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwig 180