PEEX Science Plan
PEEX “Pan-Eurasian Experiment” study is a multidisciplinary climate change, air quality, environment
and research infrastructure program focused on the Northern Eurasian particularly arctic and boreal
regions. PEEX research agenda is reinforced by the services, adaptation and mitigation plans for the
Northern societies to cope with the global change. It is a bottom up initiative by several European,
Russian and Chinese research organizations and institutes. PEEX is open for other institutes to join in.
More information on the project can be obtained from: www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex.
Version 0.4
Document reference: PEEX_SP_v0.4
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PEEX SCIENCE PLAN STATUS
This document (version 0.4), dated on MAY 08, 2013, is the draft version of the PEEX Science Plan
(SP). The content of this document is an updated version of SP 0.3. The list of the implemented
comments by the date of 8.May.2013 is presented in DOCUMENT STATUS SHEET of this document. It
should be noted that the Science Plan is currently under editorial process. Furthermore, the content of
the document is not yet a balanced presentation of the PEEX agenda. New material and topics could be
included to cover all the research, research infrastructure and social aspects related to climate change
in the Northern Pan-Eurasian arctic and boreal forests regions.
To keep up the momentum of the PEEX process towards a large scale Pan-Eurasian initiative this
document is distributed for comments to Russian, Chinese and European national funding agencies
and research institutes on 8.May.2013. The aim of this comment around is (i) to receive general
remarks on the PEEX agenda and (ii) to gather the PEEX research community and survey the potential
stakeholder groups. The schedule for the PEEX Science Plan is to have the first full version ready after
the PEEX-3 meeting; to be held in Hyytiälä (SMEAR-II station ) Finland on 26-28.Aug.2013.
PEEX meetings:
- PEEX-1 meeting in Helsinki (2-4.Oct.2012) was organized by University of Helsinki, Division of
Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) and Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). There were over 80
participants from 42 research institutes from Russia, China and 11 European countries.
- PEEX-2 meeting in Moscow (12-14.Feb.2013) was organized by Section of Oceanology,
Atmospheric Physics and Geography of the Div. Earth Sciences (RAS). There were 50 participants
from different research institutes from Russia (RAS, Roshydromet, Lomonosov MSU,
AEROCOSMOS, St-Petersburg SU) and Finland (Univ.Helsinki, FMI) and representatives from
different types of European research instances (EC, ISAC, Democritos, Nansen Center, IIASA,
Estonian University of Life Sciences).
- PEEX-3 meeting to be organized by the University of Helsinki in SMEAR II station, in Hyytiälä
forest field station (SMEAR II station), Finland on 26.-28.Aug.2013.
Preparatory Committee:
Academy Prof. Markku Kulmala (Univ.Helsinki) , Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich (FMI), Director Yrjö Viisanen
(FMI) , Prof. Vladimir Kotlyakov (Inst. of Geography), Prof. Nikoly Kasimov (Moscow State University),
Prof. Valeriy Bondur (AEROCOSMOS), Prof. Gennady Matvienko (Inst. of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS)
and EU/JPI representatives.
Preparatory Phase PEEX Project Office:
Heads Prof. Markku Kulmala (Univ.Helsinki), Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich (FMI),
Executive Officer, Research Coordinator Dr. Hanna K. Lappalainen, Univ.Helsinki ATM/FMI
Science Officer, Head of Measurement Group, Dr. Tuukka Petäjä, Univ.Helsinki ATM
Project Officer, Dr. Joni Kujansuu, Univ.Helsinki ATM
PEEX website: http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/
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ABSTRACT
PEEX is a multidisciplinary research project aiming at resolving the major uncertainties in the Earth
system science and global sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian regions. The
vision of the Pan Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is to solve interlinked global challenges influencing the
human well-being and societies in the northern Eurasia, such as climate change, air quality,
biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food supply, use of natural resources by mining industry, energy
production and transport, in an integrative way, recognizing the important role of the arctic and boreal
ecosystems in the Earth system. The PEEX vision includes establishing and maintainen long-term,
coherent and coordinated research activities and research and educational infrastructures in the PEEX
domain.
PEEX will use an integrated observational and modelling framework to identify different forcing and
feedback mechanisms in the northern parts of the Earth system, and therefore enable more reliable
predictions of future regional and global climate. Because of the already observable effects of climate
change on society and the specific role of Arctic and boreal regions in this context, PEEX emphasizes
the need to establish next-generation research in this area. PEEX will provide fast-track assessments of
global environmental change issues for climate policy-making and mitigation and adaptation strategies
for the northern Pan-Eurasian region. PEEX is built on the collaboration between European, Russian
and Chinese partners, and it is open for a broader collaboration in the future. The PEEX community will
include scientists from various disciplines, funders, policy-makers and stakeholders from industry,
transport, food production and trade, and it will aim at co-designing research in the region in the spirit
of Future Earth.
PEEX aims to be operational starting from 2014. It will start building the long-term, continuous and
comprehensive research infrastructures (RI) in the northern Pan-Eurasia. These RIs will include groundbased, aircraft and satellite observations as well asmulti-scale modelling. The PEEX domain covers the
Eurasian boreal zone and Arctic regions of the hemisphere, including the marine areas such as the
Baltic, North Sea and the Arctic Ocean. The PEEX research agenda focusses on the multidisciplinary
process understanding of the Earth system on all relevant spatial and temporal scales ranging from the
nano scale to the global scale. The strategic focus is to ensure the long-term continuation of advanced
measurements in the land-atmosphere-ocean continuum in northern Eurasian area.
The scientific results of PEEX will be used to develop new climate scenarios at global and regional
scales. PEEX aims to contribute to the Earth system science agenda and climate policy for topics
important to Pan-Eurasian environment and society to help the Pan-Eurasian region towards a
sustainable future.
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PEEX consists of 4 focus areas:
Focus-1 PEEX research agenda
to understand the Earth system and the influence of environmental and societal changes in pristine
and industrialized Pan-Eurasian environments. Especially, PEEX aims to determine the processes
relevant to the climate change in the Pan Eurasian region.
Focus-2 PEEX Infrastructures
to establish and sustain long-term, continuous and comprehensive ground-base airborne and seaborne
research infrastructures, and to utilise satellite data and multi-scale model frameworks. The data sets
and archives will be developed and utilised in a joint manner. Validated and harmonized data products
will be implemented to the models of appropriate spatial and temporal scales and topical focus.
Focus-3 PEEX Society dimension
to contribute to regional climate scenarios in the northern Pan-Eurasia and determine the relevant
factors and interactions influencing human and societal wellbeing. Furthermore, it will assess the
natural hazards (foods, forest fires, extreme water events, risks for structures built on permafrost)
related to cryospheric changes in the PEEX domain and provide adaptation and mitigation strategies
for sustainable land-use, energy production and human well-being.
Focus-4 Knowledge Transfer
to promote the dissemination of PEEX scientific results and strategies in scientific and stake-holder
communities and policy making, to educate the next generation of multidisciplinary global change
experts and scientists, and to increase the public awareness of climate change impacts in the PanEurasian region.
VISION
PEEX is a multidisciplinary research initiative aiming at resolving the major uncertainties in the Earth
system science and global sustainability questions in the Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian region. The
vision of PEEX is to solve interlinked global challenges influencing the human well-being and societies
in the northern Eurasia, such as climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food
supply, energy production and fresh water, in an integrative way, recognizing the significant role of
boreal regions and Arctic in the context of global change.
The PEEX vision includes the establishment and maintenance of long-term, coherent and coordinated
research activities and research & educational infrastructures in the PEEX domain. PEEX aims to
contribute to the Earth system science agenda and climate policy in topics important to the PanEurasian environment and to provide adaptation and mitigation strategies for the northern PanEurasian societies to cope with climate change.
MISSION
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to be a next generation natural sciences and socie-economic reseach initiative having a major impact
on the future environmental, socio-economic and demography development of the Arctic and boreal
regions. to be a science community building novel infrastructures in the Northern PanEurasian region.
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CONTENTS
PEEX SCIENCE PLAN STATUS ..................................................................................................................................... 2
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................................. 3
EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 8
1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 14
2 OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................................................................... 16
3 PEEX INITIATIVE BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................... 17
4. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PEEX DOMAIN ........................................................................................................... 17
4.1. TERRESTIAL BIOMES AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS ..................................................................................................18
4.1.1 BOREAL FORESTS – TAIGA ................................................................................................................................18
4.1.2 THE SUB-ARCTIC AND ALPINE TUNDRA .............................................................................................................19
4.1.3 PEATLANDS.......................................................................................................................................................20
4.2 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: THE ARCTIC OCEAN ............................................................................................................20
4.2.1 OCEAN, SEA ICE, AND CLIMATE CHANGE ..........................................................................................................21
4.2.2 ARCTIC MARINE REGIONS .................................................................................................................................23
4.3 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: ARCTIC AND BOREAL LAKES ...............................................................................................25
4.4 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: LARGE RIVER SYSTEMS ......................................................................................................26
4.5 PERMAFROST REGIONS OF PEEX DOMAIN ...............................................................................................................27
4.6 URBAN REGIONS......................................................................................................................................................29
4.7 NORTHEN SOCIETIES AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT .....................................................................................31
4.8 NATURAL RESOURCES: OIL, NATURAL GAS, TIMBER, COAL CONSUMTION, WIND, WATER ......................................32
5. PEEX RESEARCH AGENDA .................................................................................................................................... 34
5.1 BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES .......................................................................................................................................39
5.1.1 HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ......................................................................................................................................39
5.1.2 CARBON CYCLE .................................................................................................................................................42
5.1.3 NITROGEN CYCLE ..............................................................................................................................................45
5.1.4 PHOSPHORUS CYCLE .........................................................................................................................................46
5.1.5 LAND ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURAL CHANGES .......................................................................................................48
5.2 ATMOSPHERE : COMPOSITION AND CHEMISTRY .....................................................................................................49
5.2.1 GREENHOUSE GASES ........................................................................................................................................50
5.2.2 AEROSOLS AND CLOUDS ...................................................................................................................................51
5.3 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS .......................................................................................................................................53
5.3.1 BOUNDARY LAYER ............................................................................................................................................53
5.3.2 ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION............................................................................................................................54
5.4 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS ..................................................................................................................................56
5.4.1 ELECTROMAGNETIC (EM) WEATHER AND CLIMATE ..........................................................................................56
5.4.2 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS...........................................................................................................................57
5.5 OCEANS ...................................................................................................................................................................58
5.6 PERMAFROST - CLIMATE VARIATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY THE POLAR AMPLIFICATION OF THE CLIMATIC SIGNALS 60
5.7 SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES .....................................................................61
5.7.1 HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................................62
5.7.2 NATURAL HAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS ...........................................................................................65
5.7.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN ............................................................................................68
6. PEEX RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE ..................................................................................................................... 70
6.1 MEASUREMENTS .....................................................................................................................................................71
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6.1.2 FIELD MEASUREMENTS: LAND – ATMOSPHERE – AQUATIC ..............................................................................71
6.1.2 REMOTE SENSING .............................................................................................................................................80
6.1.3 LABORATORY....................................................................................................................................................82
6.3 MODELS ...................................................................................................................................................................83
6.3.1 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS ...................................................................................................................................83
6.3.2 MODELLING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ...............................................................................................88
6.4 PEEX MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME AND STANDARDIZED DATA PRODUCTS ..........................................................89
6.4.1 ESTABLISHMENT OF PERMANENT PEEX DATA PLATFORM ................................................................................89
6.4.2 HARMONIZATION OF PEEX DATA PRODUCTS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MEASUREMENTS SYSTEMS .............90
6.4.3 SYNERGY WITH THE EXISTING ARCTIC AND BOREAL MONITORING PROGRAMME ...........................................90
7. PEEX SOCIETY DIMENSION .................................................................................................................................. 92
7.1 MITIGATION PLANS .................................................................................................................................................93
7.1.1 AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY ..........................................................................................................................93
7.1.2 ENERGY PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING ................................................................................................94
7.1.3 WASTE MANAGEMENT .....................................................................................................................................95
7.1.5 BUILT STRUCTURES AND URBAN PLANNING ....................................................................................................95
7.1.6 GEOENGINEERING ............................................................................................................................................97
7.1.7 PROTECTING THE NATURAL CARBON SINKS.....................................................................................................97
7.1.8 CLIMATE POLICY MAKING .................................................................................................................................98
7.2 ADAPATION PLAN AND FORESEEN RISKS ............................................................................................................... 100
7.2 SERVICES TO DIFFERENT STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIETY ......................................................................................... 100
7.2.1 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR TIMELY MITIGATION ...................................................................................... 100
8. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER ................................................................................................................................... 102
8.1 FUTURE CAPACITY BUILDING ................................................................................................................................. 102
8.1.2 PEEX EDUCATIONAL AND STUDENT EXCHANGE PROGRAMME ....................................................................... 102
8.2 STRUCTURING FUTURE RESEARCH AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES ............................................................... 103
8.2.2 TOWARDS A NEW, INTEGRATED EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH COMMUNITY .................................................... 103
8.2.2 RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES ....................................................................................................................... 104
8.3 RISING THE AWARENESS OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLOBAL CHANGE TO SOCIETY ............................................. 104
DOCUMENT STATUS SHEET ................................................................................................................................... 105
11. REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................................... 108
12. ACRONYM LIST ............................................................................................................................................... 108
13. ANNEXES......................................................................................................................................................... 108
13.1 ANNEX: LIST OF CONTRBUTING INSTITUTES ........................................................................................................ 108
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EEXEEXXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY
The feedback dynamics between the global drivers; demographics, natural resources demand,
globalization and climate change sets the focus of the next 40 years global megatrends on the
Northern latitudes and the Arctic regions. To cope with the consequences of climate change in a
global scale, the transformation of the civilization and natural ecosystems, are one of the ultimate
challenges of the 21st century. It is expected, that the Northern regions, land and ocean areas lying
45◦N latitude or higher, will undergo consequential change during the next 40 years. Even the most
moderate climate scenarios predict that the northern high latitudes will warm 1.5 ○C -2.5 ○C by the mid
of century and 3.5 ○C by the end of the century, which is more than double compared to the global
average warming (ref. IPCC).
Climate warming is shaking the dynamics of the whole global climate system and is also triggering
interlinked loops between the other three global forces. Warming will affect the demography trends in
a way that the urbanization and the migration to Northern regions will be increased. One of major
consequences of warming of Northern latitudes is related changes in cryosphere including the thaw of
permafrost and Arctic Ocean being free of sea ice part of the year. This will accelerate global trade
activities in the Arctic region if the Northern sea route is opened for shipping between the Atlantic and
Asia’s Far East. Northern ecosystems and arctic regions are a source of major natural resources such as
oil, natural gas and minerals and their exploitation may increase if the infrastructure sustained as
permafrost is thaw. Along with these positive or ambivalent Northern trends the ecosystems will
undergo oppressive changes including new species expansion or extinction of existing ones having
unpredictable consequences on food webs or primary production of different plant ecosystems.
PEEX “Pan Eurasian Experiment” is a multidisciplinary climate change, air quality, environment,
ecosystems and research and infrastructure program focused on the Northern Eurasian particularly
arctic and boreal regions. The overall goal of PEEX is to: to solve interlinked global challenges like
climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalisation, food supply, energy production and fresh
water in integrative way recognizing the increasing role of the arctic and northern boreal forests in the
context of global change.
PEEX vision includes to establish and to maintain a long-term coherent and coordinated research
activity and research & educational infrastructure in PEEX domain. PEEX aims to contribute to the
Earth system science agenda and climate policy for topics inherent to Pan-Eurasian environment and
provide mitigation and adaptation assessment of Northern Pan Eurasian societies to cope with climate
change. Due to the already seen impacts of climate change on the society and the specific role of
permafrost and boreal forest regions this context, PEEX initiative emphasizes the fast actions needed
for establishing PEEX domain, the next generation research infrastructure in the field of boreal and
arctic research. PEEX is targeted to provide fast tract assessments for the climate policy making in a
global scale and mitigation strategies for the Northern Pan Eurasian region.
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PEEX is planned to be active starting from 2013-2014 in a continuous manner establishing a longterm research infrastructure (RI) in the Northern Pan Eurasian. PEEX domain covers major part of
relevant areas of boreal forest zone and permafrost regions of the Northern hemisphere including the
maritime environments. PEEX research is based on the collaboration of Russian, Chinese and European
parties and is aimed to prove revolutionary impact on global climate policy making.
The Pan Eurasian Experiment (PEEX) Science Plan describes the specific characteristics of the
geographical regions of the programme, programme objectives and science, societal and educational
priorities and research infrastructure development. The PEEX domain covers natural and urban
environments of Northern Pan-Eurasian region. The natural environments include boreal coniferous
and deciduous forests, steppe, wetlands and aquatic ecosystems including marshes, large river systems
and freshwater bodies as well as the marine ecosystems, mountains and sub-arctic tundra ecosystems.
Siberia is the core geographical region of the PEEX domain. The majority of the PEEX geographical
domain is situation in the territory of Russia and China.
Research agenda outlines the most relevant questions related to research in the arctic and boreal
Northern Eurasian and the aspects related to mitigation and adaptation plans of Northern societies.
The PEEX agenda is divided into four focus areas: 1. Research agenda, 2. Infrastructures, 3. Society
Dimension
and
4.
Knowledge
Transfer
Focus-1: PEEX Research Agenda
The main goal of PEEX Research agenda is to contribute and to solving the scientific questions that
are specifically important for the Pan-Eurasian region in the coming years, in particular the global
climate change and its consequences to nature and human society. In a global scale it is important to
understand the impacts and feedbacks to Climate / Earth system and to determine the climate change
relevant processes especially in Pan Eurasian region.
The PEEX Research agenda covers different spatial and temporal components, ecosystems, biomes or
geographical regions including natural and urban regions. The large scale components covered by PEEX
are land, atmosphere and ocean, the compartments of an Earth System Model (ESM). Each of them
can also be divided into smaller sub-components such as boreal forests, tundra, peatlands, freshwater
lakes and rivers; boundary layer, stratosphere, troposphere; and shores, continental shelves and
pelagic regions. The studied biogeochemical cycles under the Research agenda are: water, carbon,
nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur cycles. The Pan Eurasian area holds a large pool of recently stored
carbon within the biota but also a vast storage of fossil carbon storage within the soil beneath. Due to
this large storage, even small changes in the carbon release and emissions can have global climate
consequences. For example, the impacts of the boreal ecosystems are seen in the surface energy
balance, albedo and exchange of aerosol precursors and greenhouse gases. Knowledge of these
processes including planetary boundary layer mechanisms is required for the Earth system modelling
and for understanding human-induced warming. The on-going environmental change in the PEEX
domain will affect the atmospheric circulation as the lower boundary forcing will change. In this
process the Arctic Ocean plays a major role. From the point of view of the interaction between the
ocean and the other components of the Earth system addressed in the PEEX science plan, the essential
processes include the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and matter as well as dynamics and
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thermodynamics of sea ice. Many of the processes considered responsible for the Arctic amplification
of climate warming are related to the ocean. In temporal scale, the process understanding needs to be
covering range from the sub-atomic level to the whole Earth System, roughly 25 orders of magnitude
in both spatial and temporal (10–15 s to 100–1000 years) scales.
The PEEX domain covers wide range of human-natural system interactions and feedback processes,
with humans acting as both the source of climate and environmental change and the recipient of the
impacts. Reliable climate information and scenarios for the coming decades are crucial for the planning
and adaptation for cryosphere and climate chance impacts on the Northern societies. Human
decision-making regarding Earth system components such as land use and fossil fuel burning are
represented by Agent-Based Models (ABM), Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), and climate
scenarios that PEEX both utilises and develops further for the Pan-Eurasian region. In urban and
industrialised regions the process understanding of biogeochemical cycles include anthropogenic
sources such as industry and fertilisers as indispensable parts of the biogeochemical cycles. PEEX
scenarios on climate phenomena, especially estimates on the type and frequency of extreme events
and possible nonlinear responses for past, present and future conditions to provide enhanced climate
information and climate prediction capacities for Europe, Russia and China. Furthremore, Socio –
economic research covers (i) the superposition of natural and socio-economic factors, (ii) the
dependence of consequences of natural change on socio-economic situation and its dynamics, (iii)
opportunities and ways of mitigation and adaptation to natural and socio-economic change, (iv) the
spatial differentiation of the reaction of societies on national, regional, and local levels (regional and
local, urban and rural cases) to natural and socio-economic challenges.
PEEX large scale research questions
1. How are the main climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, cloudiness)
changing in the Pan-Eurasian region over the next decades?
2. What are the important feedbacks in the Pan-Eurasian climate system and how they are related
human activities and ecosystem behaviour in short (decades) and long (millennia) time scales?
3. How will the cryosphere, including the Arctic sea ice extend, snow cover and permafrost, change
with changing climate?
4. How fast will the permafrost thaw proceed and how will it affect ecosystem processes and
ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks, including the hydrology and greenhouse gas fluxes?
5. How could the regions and processes especially sensitive to climate change be identified, and what
are the best methods to analyse their responses?
6. Will there be tipping points in the future evolution of the Pan-Eurasian ecosystems and
demographic development?
7. What are the present stage and expected changes of environmental pollution (air, water, soil) and
related stresses on population and ecosystems in Eurasia, and how will these changes affect
societies (livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, industry)
8. How will human actions influence further environmental change in the region?
9. How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, chemical and biological state of the different
ecosystems, inland water, coastal areas, and the economies and societies in the region?
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10. How could one identify the environmental and socioeconomic areas most vulnerable to climate
change, and how could their adaptive capacities be improved?
Focus-2: PEEX Infrastructure
PEEX research infrastructure (F-2) aims to establish a long-term research infrastructure (RI)
including a comprehensive field station network in the region covering Scandinavia and Baltic
countries, Siberia and northern China. A hierarchical station network to increase the needed
quantitative process understanding of the complex, multidisciplinary system will be designed based on
the existing infrastructure representing different environments (i) basic weather stations, (ii) flux
(Fluxnet) stations and (iii) flag ship stations with comprehensive ecosystem-atmosphere
measurements on sources and sinks for greenhouse gases, trace gases and aerosols.
The observation system based on the currently existing infrastructure will be supplemented by the
super-site station network. A super site station measures meteorological and atmospheric factors
simultaneously together with ecosystem relevant processes (incl. carbon, nutrient and water cycles,
vegetation dynamics, biotic and abiotic stresses). Ideally, the PEEX RI will contain one super site in all
major ecosystems, in practice a station in every 2000- 3000 km. The future PEEX research
infrastructure is supporting and complementing aircraft and satellite observations and has an
important role in validation, integration, full exploitation of remote sensing data for Earth
Observations. Furthermore, procedures for improved data quality including standardization of
instruments, methods, observations, data processing will be developed taking. The role of remote
sensing observations is emphasized in the Arctic Ocean and maritime environments. The PEEX
infrastructure will deliver critical long-term datasets for the climate and air quality research including
evaluation of weather forecast and climate models. The strategic focus is to ensure the long-term
continuation of advanced measurements on aerosols, clouds, GHGs and trace gases in Northern
Eurasian area. The PEEX project is targeted as an integral part of the on-going work of scoping and
building the next generation European research infrastructures. Linking PEEX to European RI
development ensures the optimal use of the infrastructures, the data and infrastructure sharing of
Earth Observations and their scientific contribution towards Earth System modelling.
Focus-3: PEEX Society dimension
PEEX Society Dimension (F-3) integrates the outcomes of the Research agenda (F-1) and
Infrastructure (F-2) and deliveres different types of scenarios on the effects of climate change and air
quality on human population, society, energy resources and capital flow. PEEX will provide mitigation
and adaptation plans and strategies for the changing Arctic environments and societies and riskanalysis on the human related activities and natural hazards (floods, forest fires, droughts). These
plans include aspects of sustainable land use, health and energy production. The improved knowledge
and scenarios on climate phenomena, especially estimates on the type and frequency of extreme
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events and possible nonlinear responses for past, present and future conditions are needed to provide
enhanced climate information and climate prediction.
PEEX Society dimension (F-3) is linked to the aims of the research program, but is strongly taking
into account the ongoing social (political, economic) characteristic of the PEEX domain macroregion.
The main part of the Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian region, situated within the boundaries of the
Russian Federation (Russia’s North and East), has undergone rapid socio-economic transformation
during last twenty years (Regional…, 2011). Climate and other natural change are taking place parallel
with ongoing socio-economic changes interacting in complex ways. The complexity and uncertainty of
the consequences of natural (including climate) change in this macroregion are much higher than in
the others. Russia is greatly differentiated in socio-economic sense from West to East (European and
Asian parts of the country), but both by its federal subjects and within most of them (Regional…, 2011).
Therefore the consequences of one and the same natural change are spatially not alike.CHINA text-tobe-added. The PEEX mitigation and adapation plans take into account this high uncertainty and
variation of the consequences of natural (including climate) change influencing the human wellbeing
and societies in the Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian region. Thematic areas of concern for the
concequences of climate change are (i) life conditions and life activity of population, (ii) industrial
construction and house building, (iii) land use, (iv) agriculture and forestry, (v) mining industry, (vi)
transport and (vii) tourism and recreation.
Furthremore, PEEX Society dimension activity (F-3) is linked to climate policy making The PEEX
agenda (research – infrastructure – society dimension) contributes to the global challenges and
integrates the scientific results into policy making and in the context of in international scientific
organizations and networks such as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), IGAC and
iLEAPS of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). The iLEAPS/IGBP can bring
PEEX at an international policy level and opens the channel to respond to the Future Earth initiative
that will re-organise International Council for Science, ICSU’s, global environmental change (GEC)
programmes closer to social science and economics. They will be indispensable partners for natural
sciences on the road to solve the equation of one Earth (Future Earth programme) and a growing
human population. Future Earth will mobilize international science community to work with policymakers and other stakeholders to provide sustainability options and solutions in the wake of Rio+20.
Focus-4: Knowledge Transfer
PEEX Knowledge transfer (F-4) provides education programmes for the next generation scientists,
instrument specialists and data engineers. It will distribute information for general public to build the
awareness of climate change and human impact on different scales of the climate problematic and and
increase visibility of the PEEX activities in Europe, Russian and China.
The major challenges faced by PEEX knowledge transfer is to keep up momentum and reach the
public visibility of PEEX domain among the numerous on-going large scale climate related
programmes, to explore the means to make PEEX research useful with clear messages to decision
makers and to integrate the PEEX infrastructure across national and scientific boundaries to build up a
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genuine international infrastructure, corresponding to the ongoing European Strategy Forum on
Research Infrastructures process (ESFRI). PEEX will engage the larger international scientific
communities also by collaborating with, utilising, and advancing major observation infrastructures such
as the SMEAR, ICOS, ACTRIS, and ANAEE networks in addition to building its own in the Pan-Eurasian
region. PEEX will promote standard methods and best practices in creating long-term, comprehensive,
multidisciplinary observation data sets and coordinate model and data comparisons and development;
PEEX will also strengthen the international scientific community via an extensive capacity building
programme.
PEEX will have a major input in Earth system research in Pan-Eurasia on many levels and, as a
bottom-up initiative, it has engaged a large international scientific community already in the planning
phase. PEEX will also add to the building of new, integrated Earth system research community in the
Pan-Eurasian region by opening its research and modelling infrastructure and inviting international
partners and organisations to share in its development and use. PEEX will be a major factor integrating
the socioeconomic and natural science communities to working together towards solving the major
challenges influencing the wellbeing of humans, societies, and ecosystems in the PEEX region.
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1 INTRODUCTION
“A new North will be developed by the end of year 2050. It will be a location of increased human
activity, higher strategic value, and greater economic importance compared to today” (Smith, 2010).
This prediction postulates that the current capability of Earth system - climate and economic models
predict general trends of climate change correctly and assuming that no major technical breakthroughs
or any other low-probability high impact event will not take place.
According to Smith (2010) four global forces will be strongly re-shaping the civilization’s Northern
future in the next 40 years: (i) demographics (human population growth and migration trends), (ii)
increasing demand for natural resources (non-renewable and renewable assets, gene pool), (iii)
globalization (the set of economic, social, technological processes making world interconnected and
interdependent) and (iv) climate change (global mean temperature increase). Technology
development, breakthroughs in geoengineering, in bio- and nano- and environmental technology, or in
material sciences, can be seen as a fifth force, intertwined in the main global forcers.
Fig.1 The four forces shaping the civilization’s Northern future – Adapted from Smith (2010) by
H.K.Lappalainen.
The anticipated large effects of climate change and the related feedback dynamics between the
global forces sets one of the key focus areas of climate change impacts on the Northern latitudes. To
cope with the effects of climate change in a global scale, and with the transformations of civilizations
and ecosystems, is one of the ultimate challenges of the 21 st century. It is expected, that the Northern
regions, land and ocean areas located at 45◦N latitude or higher, will undergo substantial changes
during the next 40 years. Even the most moderate climate scenarios predict that the northern high
latitudes will warm 1.5 C -2.5 °C by the mid of century and 3.5 C by the end of the century, which is
more than double compared to the global average warming (ref. IPCC). The Eurasian area holds a large
pool of recently stored carbon within the biota and an inactive soil carbon pool in permafrost areas,
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but also a vast storage of fossil carbon storage in the form of oil and gas deposits. Due to these large
storages, small changes in the carbon dynamics, release and emissions can have global climate
consequences. The impacts of the boreal and Arctic ecosystems are seen in the surface energy balance
and in the albedo and in the exchange of aerosol precursors and greenhouse gas. Knowledge of these
processes including planetary boundary layer mechanisms is required for the applications in Earth
system modelling and in understanding human-induced warming (Kulmala et al. 2012 unpublished).
Climate warming is upsetting the dynamics of the whole global climate system and also influencing
the interlinked loops between the other three global forces. Warming will affect the demography
trends and urbanization and, consequently migration to Northern region is anticipated to be increased.
One of the major consequences of warming in the Northern latitudes is thawing of permafrost and
melting of ice over the Arctic Ocean. This will accelerate global trade activities in the Arctic region if the
Northern sea route is opened for shipping between the Atlantic and Asia’s Far East. The northern and
Arctic regions are large sources of non-renewable natural resources such as oil and natural gas and
their exploitation will be easier as permafrost is thawing. Along with these positive or ambivalent
trends, ecosystems will undergo significant changes, including appearance of invasive species or
extinction of existing ones, changes in ecosystem productivity and structure, and modifications in their
roles as sinks or sources of climatically relevant gases. These ecosystem changes may have
unpredictable consequences on e.g. food webs or interactions between different ecosystems and
human activities.
In addition to the large scale aspects related to global change, the regional societal dimension
includes e.g. the durability of the infrastructure (power networks, buildings, ice roads) built on the
thawing permafrost areas and issues related to ensuring the living conditions and culture of aboriginal
people living in the North.
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Fig.2 Selection of trends shaping civilization’s northern future, figure made according Smith (2010) by
H.K.Lappalainen (+ = increase, - decrease, arrows positive / negative impact). (map - permafrost
http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130b.html)
2 OBJECTIVES
PEEX is contributing to the grand challenges of the new North (see Smith 2010). The PEEX agenda is
designed to meet the challenges in the Nordic, produced by global forces. PEEX agenda consists of 4
Focus areas / objectives:
Focus-1 PEEX research agenda
to understand the Earth system and the influence of environmental and societal changes in pristine
and industrialized Pan-Eurasian environments. Especially, PEEX aims to determine the processes
relevant to the climate change in the Pan Eurasian region.
Focus-2 PEEX Infrastructures
to establish and sustain long-term, continuous and comprehensive ground-base airborne and seaborne
research infrastructures, and to utilise satellite data and multi-scale model frameworks. The data sets
and archives will be developed and utilised in a joint manner. Validated and harmonized data products
will be implemented to the models of appropriate spatial and temporal scales and topical focus.
Focus-3 PEEX Society dimension
to contribute to regional climate scenarios in the northern Pan-Eurasia and determine the relevant
factors and interactions influencing human and societal wellbeing. Furthermore, it will assess the
natural hazards (foods, forest fires, extreme water events, risks for structures built on permafrost)
related to cryospheric changes in the PEEX domain and provide adaptation and mitigation strategies
for sustainable land-use, energy production and human well-being.
Focus-4 Knowledge Transfer
to promote the dissemination of PEEX scientific results and strategies in scientific and stake-holder
communities and policy making, to educate the next generation of multidisciplinary global change
experts and scientists, and to increase the public awareness of climate change impacts in the PanEurasian region.
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Fig.3 PEEX Agenda meeting global forces driving the civilization’s Northern future.
3 PEEX INITIATIVE BACKGROUND
PEEX is a bottom-up initiative by several European, Russian and Chinese research organizations and
institutes. The promoter institutes here have been University of Helsinki, Finnish Meteorological
Institute in Finland and Inst. of Geography, Moscow State University, AEROCOSMOS and Inst. of
Atmospheric Optics SB RAS in Russia.
PEEX-1 meeting was held in Helsinki in October 2012 and PEEX-2 in Moscow in February 2013
(APPENDIX 1,2). PEEX is based on the collaboration of Russian, Chinese and European parties and can
be, in the best case, an epochal action in the global climate policy making. From European perspective
PEEX experiment can be considered as a crucial part of the strategic aims of several European and
national roadmaps for climate change research and the development of next generation research
infrastructures. PEEX is open for other institutes to join in.
4. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PEEX DOMAIN
Eurasian continent comprises of various terrestrial eco-regions and geographical areas, which have
vastly different ecological and climatic conditions. The region is in general sparsely occupied, although
several large cities and industrial centers are located in the area. The Eurasian ecosystems, including
e.g. the boreal coniferous and deciduous forests, steppe, wetlands and aquatic ecosystems including
marshes, large river systems and freshwater bodies as well as the marine ecosystems, mountains
and sub-arctic tundra ecosystems (Fig ) affect the climate both locally and globally.
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Fig. Permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere, left; PEEX geographical study region marked red
(map by IPY), Eco-regions of Russia and Scandinavia (Kulmala et al. 2011, right ref.??).
The major part of PEEX domain is covered by continuous permafrost and only the Western part of
Siberia is characterized by discontinued or sporadic permafrost (see Vaks et al. 2013 Science). Siberia
forms the boreal fraction of Eurasia with extensive pristine forests and the largest natural wetland
areas, that are significant for trace gas emissions (Guenther et al. 1995, Rinne et al. 2009, Timkovsky et
al. 2010), biogenic aerosol particles (e.g. Tunved et al. 2006, Dal Maso et al. 2008), and greenhouse gas
(GHG) exchange (Glagolev et al. 2010b). Siberia is the core geographical region of the PEEX domain.
Siberia is relatively clean of air pollutants in comparison with many surrounding regions in Asia and
Eastern Europe. However, some industrial centres in northwestern Siberia are significant sources of
heavy metals and sulphur dioxide, which cause problems for human health and deterioration of
ecosystems regionally (Baklanov et al., 2012). In some regions of Siberia, ecosystems are severely
stressed by the accumulation of pollution, originating from cities and industrial plants. The PEEX
domain covers the arctic and boreal / hemiboreal forest regions in Nordic Countries, Russian and
China.
4.1. TERRESTIAL BIOMES AND GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS
4.1.1 BOREAL FORESTS – TAIGA
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Boreal forests, also known as Taiga, form the largest terrestrial biome and account for around one
third of the Earth’s forested area (Global Forest Watch, 2002). Nearly 70% of boreal forests of the
world are situated in Siberian region. Boreal forests form the main vegetation zone in the catchment
areas of large river systems, and thus are also an important part of global water-energy-carbon cycling.
Forest biomass and peatlands in the boreal forest zone together make up one of the world’s largest
carbon reservoir (Bolin et al., 2000; Kasischke, 2000). The storage is built over centuries due to rather
favourable conditions for carbon assimilation by woody plants and the simultaneous low mean
temperatures, restricting microbial decomposition. The forest biomass forms a positive climatic
feedback via the anticipated changes in nutrient availability and temperatures, impacting carbon
sequestered both into the aboveground biomass and the soil compartment.
The large variations in temperature and light between seasons influence the composition and
functions of all boreal ecosystems. Many of the species found in boreal ecosystems are living at the
edge of their distribution, and are thus potentially susceptible to even moderate changes in their
environment. In these regions the natural and anthropogenic stresses are shaping the ecosystems and
have many important feedbacks to e.g. climate. The changes in temperature and precipitation will be
reflected in forest production, but also in the occurrence of biogenic (pests, diseases) and abiotic
(drought, storms) stress events that may have huge impacts on carbon and water cycling both
regionally and globally, and in turn also to emissions of greenhouse gases in the afforested regions. At
the same time, boreal vegetation is exposed to increased anthropogenic influence by pollutant
deposition and land use changes (Dentener et al., 2006; Bobbink et al., 2010, Savva & Berninger 2010).
The IPCC concluded that for increases in global average temperature exceeding 2ºC, global forests
will be at the risk of undesirable transformation (IPCC 2007). Boreal forests evolutionary developed
under stable cold climate and their thresholds and buffering capacity are unknown. Very likely, that
boreal forests of Northern Eurasia will be specially affected due to (1) dramatic changes of heat and
hydrological regimes over huge territories caused by permafrost melting; (2) sensitivity of boreal forest
ecosystems to warming and the high rates of expected worming in the region (up to 7-8 ºC); and (3)
dramatic acceleration of disturbance regimes, particularly fire, putbreaks of insects and diseases,
coupled with the tough anthropogenic impacts (Shvidenko et al., 2013).
Fig. Boreal forest zone (left), arctic tundra zone
(right). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:800pxMap-Tundra.png
4.1.2 THE SUB-ARCTIC AND ALPINE TUNDRA
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The sub-Arctic and alpine tundra in high latitudes and altitudes are characterized by short, in many
cases also cool growing seasons, harsh and dark winter conditions and summertime midnight sun in
the northernmost regions, setting physical boundaries for ecosystem functions and e.g. for tree
growth. Rainfall and snowfall are generally moderate, but as also potential evapotranspiration is
extremely low, a terrain of swamps and bogs is formed even in places that get precipitation typical of
deserts of lower and middle latitudes. The amount of native tundra biomass depends more on the
local temperature than the amount of precipitation.
The climatic conditions have also large impacts on carbon sequestration in vegetation and soils.
Approximately one third of the world's soil-bound carbon is located in the taiga and tundra soils. In
many sub-arctic and arctic tundra regions the subsoil is permafrost and forms a huge, immobilized
carbon storage. However, in summer months the tundra is covered by a mosaic of small water bodies,
marshes, lakes and bogs, and can act as very strong sources of methane and N2O (nitrous oxide, an
extremely efficient greenhouse gas) (Repo et al 2009, Elberling et al 2010; Elberling et al. 2010). Very
little is known about the dynamics of these emissions in tundra ecosystems as only sporadic
measurements have been made, but it has been estimated that these hot spots could amount to
approx. 0.1 Tg nitrous oxide yr-1, corresponding to 4% of the global warming potential of Arctic
methane emissions at present. Thus, the fate of permafrost soils in tundra is important for global
climate in regards to all greenhouse gases. The melting of the permafrost in short time scales (decades
or centuries) could also radically change species composition and distribution in tundra.
4.1.3 PEATLANDS
Peatlands occupy a relatively small fraction, about 3%, of the Earth’s land area, but they are a
globally important carbon storage and especially important in the boreal regions and high latitudes
(Frolking et al. 2011). At present, boreal peatlands are a small net sink of carbon, but their contribution
to the global greenhouse gas balance is large. Peatlands are inhabited by archaea, methanogenic
bacteria, which produce methane (CH4) at the last stage of their metabolism (Vogels et al., 1988).
Since CH4 is a very strong greenhouse gas, the warming from CH4 emission may offset the cooling
effect of net carbon sequestration in peat lands (Friborg et al. 2003). The processes underlying CH4
emissions are complex and depend on several climate- and vegetation-related variables, such as
inundation, vegetation composition and soil temperature. Many of those controlling factors become
altered following anthropogenic intervention in natural peat land ecosystems. Peatlands fell under
extensive management already in distant past (O’Sullivan 2007), with the activities ranging today from
drainage and peat harvesting to establishing crop plantations and forests. Complete understanding of
climatic effects of peat land management remains a challenging question, although there are reasons
to expect an overall negative effect (Maljanen et al. 2010).
4.2 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: THE ARCTIC OCEAN
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4.2.1 OCEAN, SEA ICE, AND CLIMATE CHANGE
The Arctic Ocean occupies a roughly circular basin and covers an area of about 14 x 10 6 km2. The
central Arctic Ocean comprises two major deep basins of more than 3000 m depth: The Canada and
Eurasian basins, separated by the Lomonosov Ridge. In the Eurasian side the continental shelf is wide
with a shallow sea. The greatest inflow of water to the Arctic Ocean comes from the Atlantic, carried
by the Norwegian Current, which then flows along the Eurasian coast. Inflow from the Pacific Ocean
via the Bering Strait is much less in volume, but the Pacific water is an important heat source for the
surface layers, whereas the warm Atlantic water masses stay deeper. The East Greenland Current is
responsible for most of the outflow of water and sea ice from the Arctic Ocean. Minor water and ice
exchange also takes place via the Nares Strait west of Greenland. The Arctic Ocean is strongly
stratified with less saline and colder water in the uppermost layer, some 50 m thick. The salinity
effect on density dominates, keeping the stratification stable. The strong stratification is a prerequisite
for the presence of an extensive sea ice cover in the Arctic. In the pycnocline layer donward of about
50 m, both salinity and temperature increase with depth.
The extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas varies from 15-16 million km2 in
winter/spring to 3-6 km2 in summer/autumn. The ice cover is not compact, but broken by areas of
open water: cracks, leads, and polynyas. In the inner ice pack, the ice concentration is typically more
than 90% in winter, but even small areas of open water allow a significant release of heat and moisture
to the atmosphere. Hence, the ice concentration is essential for the regional surface heat budget of
the Arctic Ocean and further for the near-surface air temperatures (Lüpkes et al., 2008). The sea ice in
the Arctic is a mixture of first-year ice and multi-year ice, the latter having survived at least one
summer season. This thickness of first-year ice is typically 1-3 m, whereas the multiyear ice may be up
to 8 m thick. In addition to thermodynamic growth, the ice thickness is strongly affected by dynamic
processes: rafting and ridging. The sea ice mass balance of the entire Arctic Ocean is strongly affected
by the ice export, which mostly takes palce through the Fram Strait.
The thickness, areal extent and concentration of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have
strongly decreased during the recent decades. The first significant changes were detected in sea ice
thickness on the basis of submarine observations between 1950s and 1990s (Rothrock et al., 1999),
whereas the sea ice extent has decreased most rapidly during the latest 30 years, the overall negative
yearly trend being -4% per decade during 1979-2010 (Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2012). The sea ice
extent has decreased mostly in summer and autumn. The inter-annual variations in winter and spring
are limited by the small size of the Arctic basin. Several processes have contributed to the decline of
Arctic sea ice cover: changes in cloud cover, prevailing wind direction and related atmospheric heat
transport from the Pacific sector and increased oceanic heat transport via the Bering Strait (see
Stroeve et al. (2012) for a synthesis). In addition, as the ice thickness has decreased, the ice pack has
become increasingly sensitive to wind forcing and the ice-albedo feedback. Challenges remain in the
accurate measurement of sea ice thickness and, to lesser extent, concentration and extent.
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Arctic, as observed in September 2012 (white
area). The purple line shows the median
September ice extent for 1979-2012. Source:
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder,
CO, USA.
Figure N. Record minimum seaice extent in the
September sea ice extent in the Arctic. Source:
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder,
CO, USA.
Figure
N2.
Time
series
of
The Arctic Ocean occupies a roughly circular basin and covers an area of about 14,056,000 km 2 . The
oceanographic changes in the Arctic Sea; sea ice coverage, arctic water flows and masses are
teleconnected to global climate and weather dynamics. The Arctic can influence the mid-latitude
weather and climate. The cold air from Arctic moves toward the equator, meeting with warmer air at
latitude 60°N and causing rain and snow. The warmer and moister atmosphere of ice-demised Arctic
during autumn has been associated with enhanced autumn snow cover in Asia (ref.Wash ISAR-3). In
general this flow is the lower portion of the polar cell, the highest (by latitude) of the three principal
circulation cells of the Earth's atmosphere each spanning thirty degrees of latitude.
TEXT_TO_BE_ADDED climate change aspects; ozone,
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Figure N. Surface currents in the Arctic Ocean:
(1) anticyclonic gyre in the Canada Basin, and (2)
the Transpolar Drift Stream. Red arrows mark
warm Atlantic water masses.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/71/Arctic_
Ocean_circulation_map.svg/512px-Arctic_Ocean_circulation_map.svg.png
The Arctic Ocean is ice-covered preventing ship traffic from October to June. For most of the year,
the sea is covered with ice, but the amount of sea ice has been declining rapidly. The predicted
shortening of the ice cover period draws attention to the capitalized natural resources. The future role
of the natural resources of the Arctic Sea for the global energy market
will be significant because it may hold 25% or more of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources
(Yenikeyeff
&
Krysiek
2007)
The Arctic Ocean has a fragile ecosystem sensitive to environmental change. Phenomenas as ocean
acidification and effects on primary production (marine phyto and zooplanktons) are some of the key
areas related to reduction of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean. Ice cover for a major portion of the year
prevents sunlight from penetrating deep into the water column and thus limits production for several
months. Increased production occurs after the ice melts in the summer months.
4.2.2 ARCTIC MARINE REGIONS
In the Arctic marine regions, climatic conditions are extremely severe, with major seasonal and
annual changes. For most of the year, the sea is covered with ice, but the amount of sea ice has been
declining rapidly. The ice-cover varies considerably during the year and inter-annually. Ice cover
prevents sunlight from penetrating deep into the water column for a major portion of the year and
thus limits primary production for several months. Increased production occurs after the ice melts in
the summer months. The formation and melting of ice, which supplies freshwater and chemical
elements, complicates the thermal, chemical, sedimentological and biological processes. This
ecosystem is uniquely sensitive to environmental change.
The phytoplankton life cycle takes place during the short Arctic summer. The main reasons for
interannual differences in the biological seasons are the meteorological, hydrological and glacial
conditions. Zooplankton population size and biomass can vary widely in the summer. An issue of
special importance is the relationship between shelf circulation and nutrient fluxes. Coastal erosion
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and river discharges provide a major source of suspended matter and nutrients. Huge Siberian rivers
(for instance the Kolyma River) bring millions of tons of nutrients into the Sea every year.
Hazardous anthropogenic contaminants (oil, hydrocarbons, organochlorine compounds, heavy
metals and radionuclides) can be found in snow, ice, seawater, marine organisms and bottom
sediments. The average concentrations of these contaminants are low. The arctic marine ecosystems
are, however, particularly fragile and sensitive to pollution.
Anthropogenic activities near mineral resource extraction zones, or adjacent to ports or in the
vicinity of small coastal settlements increases the level of pollution in the maritime Arctic regions.
Furthermore, the Siberian rivers discharging into the Arctic Ocean encompass industrial and
agricultural regions located within their catchments. For example, contaminants can be found in the
regions that are a part of the Kolyma and Indigirka river watersheds. The other river catchments may
also contain significant amounts of contaminants. The pollutants can be transported by coastal
currents along the continental shelf. The dissolved pollutants are carried even further, as the river
runoff flows across the central Arctic basin in the Transpolar Drift Stream. Other issues pertaining to
ecosystem health are endangered marine species such as walruses and whales; the fragile marine
ecosystem, slow to recover from disruptions or damage; the thinning polar ice pack. For more
information on the environmental distribution of pollutants, on UV radiation and on climate change,
see the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).
Fig. The Lena Delta: Area – 30 000 km2, 75% - land, 25% - river runoff channels with sand banks, 6
large and hundreds small channels, thousands islands, river runoff - 511 km3, 58 700 lakes, rising of
high water level - 8-1 m, average temperature: January - -30.5, July - +7,7 °С, permafrost thickness –
500-600 m, permafrost temperature – -8-11 °С
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4.3 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: ARCTIC AND BOREAL LAKES
The Northern Pan Eurasian region is characterized by the thaw lakes, which comprise 90% of the
lakes in the Russian permafrost zone (Romanovskii et al. 2002). The Siberian lakes, which are formed in
melting permafrost as temperatures rise, have long been known to emit methane. Latest observations
on the lakes in the permafrost zone of northern Siberia indicate that they are belching out much more
methane into the atmosphere than previously thought. Rather than being emitted in a constant
stream, 95% of the methane comes from random bubbling in disperse locations. In coming decades
this could become a more significant factor in global climate change (Walter et al. 2006 Nature).
The Siberian lakes situated in tundra and forest-tundra zone are in general poorly studied. In their
natural state they are less productive waters, but their ecosystems are highly sensitive to external
influences. Profuse blooming of cyanobacterias is usually associated with industrial effluents and
nutrient run-off. The assessment of impact of climate change on the increasing of water trophicity,
accompanied by blooms of cyanobacteria in Northern Pan Eurasian region is needed.
Water chemistry in small lakes along a transect from boreal to arid ecoregions in European Russia,
is determined by a combination of physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring both in the
lakes themselves as well as in their catchment areas. In the last century, long-range transboundary air
pollution has led to changes in the geochemical cycles of S, N, metals and other compounds in many
parts of the world (Schlesinger, 1997; Vitousek et al., 1997a, b; Kvaeven et al., 2001; Skjelkvåle et al.,
2001). In the last decade combined effects of air pollution and climate warming have received
increasing attention (Skjelkvåle and Wright, 1998; Schindler et al., 2001; Alcamo et al., 2002;
Sanderson et al., 2006; Feuchtmayr et al., 2009; Sereda et al., 2011). Water chemistry of small lakes
without any direct pollution sources in the catchment can be expected to reflect regional
characteristics of water chemistry, as well as of global anthropogenic processes such as climate change
and long-range air pollution (Müller et al., 1998; Moiseenko et al., 2001; Battarbee et al., 2005). The
European part of Russia and Western Siberia is characterised by well-defined natural climatic
ecoregions: tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga, middle taiga, southern taiga, mixed forest, broadleaved forest, forest-steppe, steppe and desert. In each ecoregion, a combination of natural and
anthropogenic factors influences lake water chemistry. Therefore, the gradient in water chemistry
from tundra to steppe zones can provide insight into potential climate change effects on water
chemistry.
Lake Baikal - the world's oldest and deepest
lake is situated in Siberia. Lake Baikal is at its
deepest point it is 5,387 feet (1,642 m) and it
contains about 20% of the Earth's non-frozen
water.
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SELENGA-BAIKAL DRAINAGE AREA AS THE FIELD LABORATORY WITH EXISTED ON-GOING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH


Linking hydroclimatic, hydrological and hydrogeochemical research with the special focus on climatic and
human changes sequences in the drainage area located in semi-arid and boreal corridor
Basin-scale distributions of pollution sources, transport pathways-times from the sources, and resulting
loads after retention along the pathways, through the coupled atmosphere - surface water - groundwater
systems to downstream recipients
4.4 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: LARGE RIVER SYSTEMS
The problem of environmental pollution includes as a central component the waterborne spreading of
nutrients and pesticides from agricultural areas, heavy metals that often originate from mining areas,
and other elements and chemicals such as persistent organic pollutants from urban and industrial
areas. Following river and delta dynamics occurs due to the shifts in downstream loads, with
frequently significant aggradation/degradation rates in the fluvial system. The current ground-based
streamflow-gaging network does not provide adequate spatial coverage for many scientific and water
management applications, including verification of the land-surface runoff contribution to the
recipients of intra-continental runoff. Special field laboratories of joint observations and modelling
capabilities in hydrometeorology, sedimentology and geochemistry, are needed for understanding
tracer and pollution spreading as a part of global environmental fluxes in present and future.
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Fig. Foreign parts of Russian transboundary rivers, incl. Selenga-Baikal drainage area .
Selenga-baikal drainage basin as field laboratory for tracer and pollution spreading under climate
change
Selenga River Basin is located in the centre of Eurasia and extends from northern Mongolia into
southern Siberia, Russia, and has its outlet at Lake Baikal. The Selenga River Basin and Lake Baikal is
located in the upstream part of the Yenisey river system, which discharges into the Arctic Ocean. Lake
Baikal has the largest lake volume in the world at about 23000 km3 (comprising 20 % of all unfrozen
freshwater globally), hosts a unique ecosystem (Granina 1997), and is an important regional water
resource (Garmaev and Khristoforov, 2010; Brunello et al. 2006). There are numerous industries and
agricultural activities within the Selenga River Basin that affect the water quality of the lake and its
tributaries.Mining is well-developed in the region (e.g. Korytnjy et.al, 2003; Karpoff and Roscoe 2005;
AATA 2008; Byambaa and Todo 2011), and heavy metals accumulate in biota and sediments of the
Selenga river delta and Lake Baikal (Boyle et al., 1998; Rudneva et al., 2005; Khazheeva et al. 2006).
4.5 PERMAFROST REGIONS OF PEEX DOMAIN
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The permafrost regions, huge boreal forests, catchments of large rivers and the arid steppe regions of
the Pan Eurasian area are hot spots in climate change research in at a global scale. Permafrost (ground
temperature at or below 0oC > 2 years) is very typical characteristic of the Arctic occupying; 25% of
land area in the Northern Hemisphere and 50% of land area in Russia and Canada. With climate
warming also permafrost is getting warmer and thawing. Degradation of permafrost causes serious
problems for infrastructure (Shiklomanov, Streletsky 2013), nature, and water systems in the Arctic
regions. The degradation of permafrost causes problems in using the natural resources in the Arctic
and increases greenhouse gas emission from ground to atmosphere.
From the natural emissions the biomass, soils, and peat lands of Siberia hold one of the largest
pools of terrestrial carbon. Because Siberia is located where some of the largest temperature
increases are expected to occur under current climate change scenarios, stored carbon has the
potential to be released with associated changes in fire regimes.
There are also natural sources of gas compounds like methane (CH4), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen
oxides (NOx), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ammonia (NH3) in the Siberian region, such as gas locked inside
Siberia's frozen soil and under its lakes, wild fires, marine algae, etc. The frequency, duration and
severity of forest fires in the boreal forest zone, which is a major source of SO 2 and sulphur aerosols in
Siberia, appear to have increased in the late 20th century (Shvidenko and Goldhammer 2001, McGuire
et al. 2004, Derome and Lukina, 2010), and there are no reasons to assume that this increase will not
continue in the future. Ammonia and NOx emissions, derived from diffuse sources such as agriculture
and vehicular traffic, are of more localised concern in Siberia.
Different permafrost types, on-shore subsurface and sub-glacial permafrost and off-shore sub-shelf
permafrost can be categorized based on geographical features. Only seasonal frozen ground can be
found outside cryolithozone. Cryolithozone occupies 2/3 of the territory of Russian. In the
cryolithozone the subsurface soils and rocks are partially or completely characterized by negative
temperature. Geocryological factor is extremely important for the oil-gas industry, since the majority
of the these deposits is situated in the permafrost zone.
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Fig.
4.6 URBAN REGIONS
Urban regions cover small fraction of land surface in the PEEX domain, but still their impacts on
local and global climate are important due to high emissions of greenhouse gases and other
atmospheric pollutants (Curtis et al., 2006; Satterthwaite, 2008). In addition to the effects on
biochemical cycles, urban areas modify the energy and water cycles. The high impervious surface and
anthropogenic heat emissions increase direct heat emissions to the atmosphere affecting human
comfort whereas the decreased evaporation enhances risk for floods in cities. Despite the importance
of urban regions, they have been understudied in the sense of global environmental change (UGEC,
2012). Majority of the research has focused on the effect of urban areas have on the global climate
change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010), whereas the impact of the climate change on urban areas has been
less examined. The latter is particularly important as the focus of climate research in the field of
climate change adaption is increasing and information related to climate-sensitive urban design and
planning is needed particularly in high latitude ecosystems where rapid present and future climate
change is expected to take place. The challenge of the present climate research is that urban areas are
typically poorly represented in meteorological and climate models (Best, 2006). Parameterizations of
the urban surface-atmosphere exchanges are commonly poorly described in these models and thus
observations to improve both the description of water and energy cycles, and pollutant emissions are
needed. One of the aims of the PEEX project is to improve the description of the surface-atmosphere
exchange processes in urban regions in different models.
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Issue of polluting substances is a key source of atmospheric transformations in Northern Eurasia. In
Russia about 60% of gross emissions into the atmosphere are due to stationary sources, i.e., industry
and heating systems of public services (Fig). This figure is the most reliable for emission processes
understanding in 1100 Russian cities with total population of over than 95.4 million people. Analyses of
the emission dynamics in Russian cities, which have the main sources of emissions, are extremely
important allowing identifying the factors of pollution (Bityukova, Kasimov, 2012).
Quatification of anthropogenic impact on air quality and long-term climate impacts is one of the
research topics in PEEX. Major production centres for copper, nickel and some other non-ferrous
metals, where the environmental situation is of great concern are situated in Siberian region; in
Krasnoyarsk, Murmansk, Orenburg and Bratsk. They are followed by large centres with coal-fired
power generating, such as Troitsk in Chelyabinsk Region, petrochemical and oil refining industries
(Omsk, Angarsk, Ufa) and areas where oil mining is just beginning (Tomsk Region).
Fig. Recent increase of emissions of Anthropogenic emissions (Kasimov & Bityukova 2012).
Urban air quality
Urban air quality in several Siberian cities (e.g. Norilsk, Barnaul, Novokuznetsk) is especially alarming
among the Russian and European cities. To sketch a scope of environmental problems of Siberian
cities, it is necessary to underline an essential dependence of atmospheric quality from climatic
conditions typical for Siberia. A stable atmospheric stratification and temperature inversions are
predominant weather patterns for more than half a year. This contributes to accumulation of
pollutants of different nature in the low layers of the atmosphere, namely where ecosystems function
and people live. In addition to the severe climatic conditions, man-made impacts on the environment
in industrial areas and large cities strengthen more and more. The impacts manifest themselves in
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pollution of environment, change of the Earth surface, of hydrological and hydrodynamic regimes of
the atmosphere, etc.
The main atmospheric pollution sources in Siberia can be distinguished on anthropogenic
(industrial, transport, combustion, etc.) and natural emission (biogenic emissions, wild fires, dust
storms, sea aerosols, volcano eruptions, pollen emission, etc.) sources, and characterized by different
types, characteristics and time dynamics, including local, regional, and outside sources, accidental
releases, etc. The main pollutants to be considered can be classified as health harmful, climate
effecting and ecosystem damaging gases and aerosols.
The main acidifying compounds in atmospheric deposition are SO2, sulphate (SO4), NOx, and NH3.
Sulphur dioxide emissions are mainly associated with point sources such as power plants, the pulp and
paper industry, non-ferrous metal smelters, and oil and gas processing. Oil and gas production involves
the emission of exhaust gases containing CO2, NOx, SOx and volatile organic compounds (VOC).
4.7 NORTHEN SOCIETIES AND DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
Population structure- migration flows
Both Russia’s North and East have small and diminishing population, mainly due to migration
outflow (because of severe/unfavourable life conditions combined to economic crisis) in the 1990s
(instead of the previous longstanding inflow). The combination of outflow and natural decrease (with
some regional exceptions in several ethnic republics and autonomous regions (okrugs) with oil and gas
industry) led to a steady population decline in most regions in Russia’s North and East from 1990.
Generally, in post-Soviet time the population of Russia’s eastern part decreased by 2.7 mln people,
population of Russia’s Arctic zone decreased nearly by one third (500 thous.), opposite to the majority
of world Arctic territories (Glezer, 2007a, b). Northeastern Russia was particularly remarkable:
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug lost 68% of its population; Magadan oblast – 59%; Kamchatka krai – 33%.
Geographical (environmental conditions and type of development of territory – urban or rural) and
ethnic (the nomadic Northern people or migrant people, mainly Russians, Ukrainians, Tatars) factors
influence the demography and settlement pattern in the region. Two different types of local human
communities – of indigenous people and of newly arrived people – are formed by quite different
people with specific physiological types and ways of adaptation to natural conditions and of interaction
with environment. Therefore the influence of climate and other natural change upon these two types
of communities should be studied separately.
Relatively smaller post-Soviet transformations have been exposed in the 1990 – 2000s to the local
areas with a large proportion of indigenous people employed in traditional nature management, and
the biggest –- with a larger share of Russian people and development of mining industry. The
differences in the transformation between settlements with predominantly indigenous and
predominantly Russian population are evident: for example, in Chukotka Autonomous Okrug: the
former mainly remain and only have a slightly decreased population, the latter were liquidated or
depopulated significantly (Litvinenko 2012, 2013).
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CHINA
4.8 NATURAL RESOURCES: OIL, NATURAL GAS, TIMBER, COAL CONSUMTION, WIND, WATER
Siberia is a “storeroom” of natural resources for Russia, containing 85% of its prospected gas reserves,
75% – coal reserves, 65% – oil reserves. Siberia has more than 90% of Russian coal, 75% lignite, 95% lead; approximately 90% molybdenum, platinum, and platinoides; 80% diamonds; 75% gold; 70%
nickel and copper etc. (Korynty 2009). Methods of industrial exploitation of northern territories which
are in practice today are wasteful and mostly provide extremely negative impacts on environment and
ecosystems. Examples: (1) Siberian Federal Okrug provided 5.8 mln t of emissions from stationary
sources in 2007 (28% of the total emissions over the country. (2) Company “Norilsk Nickel”emits ~2
mln t of pollutants per year (mostly sulfur dioxide) that resulted ~ 2mln ha of technogenic deserts
around. (3) In West Siberian regions of intensive gas and oil destruction up to 35 000 breaks of oil
pipelines occur annually, of which~300 accidents have oil spells > 10 000 t. (4) From 15 to 25 billion
m3 of casing-head gas burns in flares annually (Griosman et al 2013). Such a practice could
substantially intensify negative impacts of climate change on environment and ecosystems. Industrial
development of Siberia should be considered as one of most important drivers of future land useland cover changes in PEEX study region.
Dynamics of major classes of land cover, particularly forests, are documented since 1961, when
results of the first complete inventory of Russian forests were published. According to official statistics,
the area of forests in Asian Russia increased at ~80 million ha during 1961-2009. Such a large increase
is explained by (1) improved quality of forest inventory in remote territories; (2) derease of unforested
areas (~50 mln ha) due to natural reforestation (mostly during the Soviet era as a result of forest fire
suppression); (3) encroaching forest vegetation in previously nonforest land – based on official
statistics the area of cultivated agricultural land in the region decreased at ~10 million ha during 19902009. After 2000s the forested area in Siberia slightly decreased, mostly due to fire and industrial
transformation in many regions.
However, the situation in most populated areas with intensive forest harvest (southern part of
Siberia) is substantially different. For example, in Krasnoyarsk kray area of forests decreased at 5%,
mature coniferous forests – at 25% etc. Overall, typical processes in such regions are (Shvidenko et al
2013):
● dramatic decline of quality of forests (decrease of area of conifer forests; substantial reduction of
areas of forests of high productivity; nonecological technology and machinery of logging that lead to
destruction of logged areas; ineffective use of harvested wood etc.)
● unsustainable use of forest resources in northern regions with undeveloped infrastructure
● insufficient governance and forest management in the region – wide distribution of illegal logging,
natural and human-induced disturbances etc.
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Future land use - land cover change will crucially depend upon how much successfully will be
developed and implemented the strategy of sustainable development of northern territories including
sustainable management of renewable natural resources, Due to the temperature increase, there are
multiple effects in the soil-vegetation-snow environment. For example, due to warmer climate, mosses
and other vegetation grow faster, which provides better thermoinsulation of the permafrost in
summer and better feeding conditions for reindeers; however, snow can easier accumulate on thicker
vegetation, thus protecting deeper soil from cooling during winter (Tishkov, 2012). Changing
permafrost conditions are also quite important for transportation infrastructure in the regions where
it is located. (IISA)
Mining industry
Both Russia’s North and East possess abundant mineral resource potential. The resource
orientation of northern and eastern Russia’s economy, which had not changed for centuries, only
increased in the post-Soviet period and was influenced primarily by the product market. The natural
resource development sector of the economy (mining together with forestry) will continue to prevail in
the majority of these territories for the next decades. But serious socio-ecological problems remain. In
the post-Soviet period, the criteria of profitability have become dominant in the decision making of
enterprises and federal/regional governments, but it has not incorporated socially responsible and
ecological criteria as well. Consequently, the local population is now faced with grave ecological
problems in places of industrial natural resource utilization. There is also social and ecological conflict
between industrial exploitation of natural resources and traditional forms of nature management (i.e.
reindeer breeding, etc.). Processes aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of resource utilization are
weak because the federal government takes too much tax gained from the locations where the
resources are exploited. Consequently, local authorities cannot fund adequate social and
environmental protection measures.
4.7.2.2 FOOD PRODUCTION
TEXT-TO-BE-ADDED
4.7.2.3 TRADE – NEW MARKETS
TEXT-TO-BE-ADDED
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5. PEEX RESEARCH AGENDA
The Foci-1 PEEX RESEARCH AGENDA is designed to understand changes and processes driven by
global change and human activities on the land- atmosphere – hydrosphere continuum and society .
Processes are studied in land-atmosphere- water systems and from pristine and industrialized
Northern Pan-Eurasian environments. PEEX Research agenda underlines the holistic understanding of
the impacts and feedbacks to Climate / Earth system and impacts on biogeochem cycles in Northern
Pan Eurasian region. In spite of its importance in view of impacts of and feedbacks to changing climate,
only a relatively small number of investigations on biogeochemical cycles have been performed across
the North Eurasian area (Groisman and Soja 2009, Gordov and Vaganov 2010). PEEX Research agenda
takes into account different spatial and temporal scales of the processes. The process understanding
of the PEEX will be exploited via improved climate and Earth System predictions under cryospheric
changes and thawing of the permafrost. The natural science approach is carried together with the
sosio-ecomic research. The PEEX domain covers wide range of human-natural system interactions and
feedback processes, with humans acting as both the source of climate and environmental change and
the recipient of the impacts. In urban and industrialised regions the process understanding of
biogeochemical cycles include anthropogenic sources such as industry and fertilisers as indispensable
parts of the biogeochemical cycles. As summary Foci-1 research outcome is utilized for producing new
climate scenarios, (warning) services and mitigation and adaptation plans; see PEEX Foci-3 Society
Dimension. Representative measurements of biosphere – atmosphere exchange of gases such as e.g.
methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and biogenic volatile organic compounds
(BVOCs), as well as the aerosol production capacity from these ecosystems are of uttermost
importance when estimating global budgets of climate change relevant factors. This highlights the
importance of the northern terrestrial ecosystems for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but
also the need to understand the factors involved in forest growth and health in terms of atmospherevegetation interactions.
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Fig. PEEX Research agenda and available tools are targeted to integrate the biosphere-atmosphere-ocean
processes understanding of the PEEX domain in a way that it is exploited via improved climate and Earth
System predictions taking into account the cryospheric changes and thawing of the permafrost (see Kulmala
et al. 2009). FIGURE TO_BE_EDITED.
LEVEL- 1 PEEX LARGE SCALE RESEARCH QUESTIONS- FUTURE e.g. 30-100 years
1. How are the main climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, cloudiness)
changing in the Pan-Eurasian region over the next decades?
2. What are the important feedbacks in the Pan-Eurasian climate system and how they are related
human activities and ecosystem behaviour in short (decades) and long (millennia) time scales?
3. How will the cryosphere, including the Arctic sea ice extend, snow cover and permafrost, change
with changing climate?
4. How fast will the permafrost thaw proceed and how will it affect ecosystem processes and
ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks, including the hydrology and greenhouse gas fluxes?
5. How could the regions and processes especially sensitive to climate change be identified, and what
are the best methods to analyse their responses?
6. Will there be tipping points in the future evolution of the Pan-Eurasian ecosystems and
demographic development?
7. What are the present stage and expected changes of environmental pollution (air, water, soil) and
related stresses on population and ecosystems in Eurasia, and how will these changes affect
societies (livelihoods, agriculture, forestry, industry)
8. How will human actions influence further environmental change in the region?
9. How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, chemical and biological state of the different
ecosystems, inland water, coastal areas, and the economies and societies in the region?
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10. How could one identify the environmental and socioeconomic areas most vulnerable to climate
change, and how could their adaptive capacities be improved?
LEVEL - 2 PEEX RESEARCH QUESTIONS
5.1. BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
1. What are the future changes in natural and perturbed hydrological cycles from semi-arid to arctic
zones in the Pan-Eurasian region?
2. Will climate change accelerate hydrological cycle in the Pan-Eurasian region and how will this
affect precipitation patterns
3. How is wetland hydrology affected by the climate change?
4. How does ecosystem productivity change with changes in the hydrological cycle?
5. How are the large river systems changing due to temporal and spatial changes in precipitation
patterns?
6. To what extent the increases in winter precipitation (which will come partly as snow) will affect
the carbon flux of the PEEX domain?
CARBON CYCLE
1. What are the main sources and sinks of carbon in permafrost and non-permafrost regions?
2. How do the volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions and condition of ecosystems change with
changing climatic conditions?
3. How do different disturbances (fires, insects and harvests) differ in their effects on the greenhouse
gas, VOC and pollutant balance in the PEEX domain?
4. How do elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations affect vegetation and carbon cycle in boreal
and Arctic areas?
NITROGEN CYCLE:
1. How sensitive are the boreal and Arctic ecosystems to accelerated nitrogen mineralization?
2. How will the changing climate influence N cycling and the emissions of reactive nitrogen into the
atmosphere?
3. How will the N2O emissions from the Arctic respond to changing climate?
SULFUR CYCLE
1. What effect does the sulphur deposition have on ecosystem resilience in the boreal and Arctic
conditions?
2. How does atmospheric N and S deposition affect the ecosystem vitality and productivity, and what
are their links to hydrological conditions?
PHOSPORUS CYCLE
1. What are the links between phosphorus in atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere?
2. How are the phosphorus fluxes determined under changing climatic conditions?
5.2. ATMOSPHERE: COMPOSITION AND CHEMISTRY
1. What are the main anthropogenic sources of CO2, aerosol particles and their precursors in PanEurasia, how they are distributed over the territory, and how they are changing in time?
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2. What are the climatic parameters controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of regional
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere?
3. What is the effect of short lived climate pollutants (including black carbon) on the Pan-Eurasian
climate and human health?
4. How effectively aerosols and other air pollutants are transported from anthropogenic sources to
the Arctic?
5.3. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
BOUNDARY LAYER
1. What is the role of the planetary boundary layer in the functioning of the Eurasian climate system?
What specific role do stably-stratified or convective atmospheric conditions play?
2. What are the main exchange processes that couple either land or water surfaces to the planetary
boundary layer, troposphere and tropopause?
3. What are the main turbulent and non-turbulent transport mechanisms, and what is their climatic
significance under different spatial and temporal scales?
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
1. What is the role of the land surface in initiating/phase locking persistent atmospheric high pressure
systems?
2. What is the influence of Arctic sea ice loss and variability on atmospheric circulation, extreme
weather conditions, and Eurasian summer climate?
3. How is high-latitude precipitation, especially winter precipitation, affected by changes in climate
and atmospheric circulation?
4. How is storminess affected by future atmospheric circulation changes?
5. What is the predictability of Eurasian heat waves and how they affect ecosystems?
5.4 HELIOPHYSICAL FACTORS
1. What is the role of the solar- terrestrial interaction in the functioning of the Eurasian climate
system?
5.5 OCEANS
1. What will be the changes in the sea ice extent and snow cover under global warming?
2. What will be the changes in ocean-land-atmosphere interactions and fluxes under changing ice
conditions and land-ocean contrast in the Arctic?
3. What are the important climate feedbacks in the marine ecosystems, especially the Arctic Ocean?
4. What will be the impact of temperature changes on algal blooms and the following sedimentation,
i.e. carbon sink
1. How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, chemical and biological state of the different
ecosystems / inland waters (incl. thermokarst lakes and running waters of all size) and the coastal
area?
5.6. PERMAFROST
1. How permafrost changes / permafrost thawing rate will affect hydrological and carbon cycles and
fluxes of greenhouse gases?
2. Will the permafrost degradation be a risk of intensive release GHG from high latitudes at climate
warming?
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3. What is the contribution of shore erosion of Arctic cost to emissions of GHG under climate
warming?
5.7. SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENT
Land use and land cover changes
1. What are the most probable trajectories of shifting of bioclimatic zones due to changes in climate
and environment in Pan-Eurasia, and how will these changes impact the actual distribution of the
major land cover classes?
2. What is the impact of land use changes on the greenhouse gas exchange, aerosol precursor
emissions, and albedo?
3. What is the probability of non-linear changes in the functioning and vitality of high-latitude
ecosystems?
4. What is the buffering capacity and adaptation potential of boreal forests? How expected climate
and environment change will impact functioning and vitality of boreal forests? How will it impact
biodiversity?
5. What is the strategy of transition to sustainable land use under expected changes, and how
sustainable agriculture is related to forest-agriculture transitions, reforestation and biodiversity
issues?
Biomass burning activities
1. What is the connection between land use, land cover and biomass burning in Pan-Eurasia?
2. What are the regional and global climate and air quality effects of biomass burning in Siberia?
3. What is the effect of biomass burning on radiative forcing and atmospheric composition?
Fuel balance
5. How large are emissions of aerosol particles, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, CO2, POPs, heavy
metals etc. from industry and other anthropogenic sources?
6. What is human exposure to air pollutants in Pan-Eurasia?
NATURAL HAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
1. What are regional specifics of expected acceleration of disturbance regimes (wildfire, outbreaks of
insects and diseases), and how will they affect interactions between ecosystems and environment?
2. What are the effect forest fires on climate and air quality in Pan-Eurasia?
3. How do natural fire regimes change in response to land use change and to climate change?
4. What natural and anthropogenic hazards do we face from forest fires and radioactive pollution
episodes?
SOCIOECONOMIC ISSUES IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN
SOCIETY AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES
1. What are the best options according to the scientific knowledge to mitigate climate change and
environmental pollution? What are the best options according to the scientific knowledge to
mitigate climate change and environmental pollution?
2. How to adapt to harmful effects and take advantage of positive effects of climate change?
3. What is the mitigation potential of Pan Eurasian ecosystems?
4. How to communicate with and influence policy making process
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5. What kind of social consequences of the climate change we may face?
5.1 BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
Global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur and water are strongly interconnected, and ecosystems are
central in the cycles in both short and long time scales. The cycles are driven mainly by solar energy
which is captured by autotrophic plants, and to a lesser extent by geothermal energy. The processes
and their interactions are controlled by environmental parameters, such as temperature, radiation,
trace gas and aerosol concentrations, cloudiness, amount of available water for the ecosystems (Hari
et al. 2009). Time scales of the cycles vary from seconds to millennia.
The effects of climate change on biogeochemical cycles are still inadequately understood and
there are many feedback mechanisms that are difficult to quantify. They are related to, e.g., coupling
of carbon and nitrogen cycles, permafrost processes and ozone phytotoxicity (Arneth et al, 2010) and
and some of them are related to emissions and atmospheric chemistry of biogenic volatile organic
compounds (Grote & Niinemets 2008, Mauldin et al., 2012), subsequent aerosol formation (Tunved et
al. 2006; Kulmala et al. 2011a) and aerosol-cloud interactions (McComiskey & Feingold 2012; Penner et
al., 2012). For a proper understanding of the dynamics of these processes, it is essential to quantify the
range of emissions and fluxes from different types of ecosystems and environments and their links to
ecosystem productivity, and also to take into considerations that there may be previously unknown
sources and processes (Su et al. 2011, Kulmala and Petäjä, 2011, Bäck et al 2010).
The risk of catastrophic release of GHGs from high latitudes due to the degradation permafrost is
widely discussed now (Yakushev & Chuvilin 2000, Walter et al. 2008, Shakhova et al. 2010). The Arctic
is considered as a territory of potential importance in extreme increasing GHG emissions to the
atmosphere at the climate warming. The melting of permafrost may accelerate a large organic matter
pool into biogechemical cycles, which may dramatically increase the emissions of GHGs to the
atmosphere. However, there is a lack of reliable information on the acceleration of emissions of GHGs
in high latitude ecosystems during the previous decades of increasing global temperatures.
The increase in average temperature by 4-60C during the growth period at the end of 21 st century
will change the state of ecosystem carbon balance in tundra The adaptation process of tundra
ecosystems to the new temperature conditions possibly will proceed during decades and will be
accompanied by acceleration not only in GHG emissions but also in increasing of gross primary
production. These estimates do not take into account how the microbes in permafrost will respond to
thaw, through the processes such as respiration, fermentation, methanogenesis, methane oxidation
and nitrification-denitrification.
5.1.1 HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
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Hydrological cycle describes the transport and transformation of water throughout the Earth
system, and is closely linked to other biogeochemical cycles. Climate change will alter the hydrological
cycle in the PEEX domain, affecting all the processes connected to the transport of water (e.g. evapotranspiration, atmospheric transport, phase transition and cloud formation, precipitation formation
and its spatial distribution, melting and formation of sea ice, ocean currents and atmospheric general
circulation, permafrost thawing and dynamics). Since hydrology is also vital for biogeochemical cycles
and lateral fluxes of elements such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus between terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems, changes in hydrology due to climate change are of crucial importance. In aquatic
ecosystems heat fluxes can be impacted which in turn affects e.g. transfer efficiencies of carbon gases.
Climate change has already resulted in increased precipitation in most of the boreal domain. As a
consequence of increased precipitation the runoff of most arctic rivers has increased (Overeem et al.
2010). In addition to the amount of precipitation, also the timing of precipitation is anticipated to
change in northern latitudes, so that more of the annual precipitation will come during the winter
months in the form of snow (ref.). This will influence e.g. the maximum runoff timing and quantities,
and have severe consequences for ecosystems and human populations.
It has been argued that tree growth has increased less than expected, due to shifts in tree phenology
making growth occur during less favourable periods (Vaganov et al. 1999, Kiyrdanov et al. 200X).
Although overall precipitation is increasing, the frequency of drought and heat waves may increase.
There is not much research on the potential detrimental effects of drought and high temperatures on
tree growth in the PEEX domain than for other boreal or temperate regions. Shifts in rainfall patterns
and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest
decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity (Choat et al,
2012). The important part of the hydrological cycle is transpiration from vegetation. Water transport
from soil via roots and stems to stomata in the foliage is a complicated chain of physico-biologcial
processes which are partly still unknown. High water tensions are generated in stems under
transpiration and trees are operating in narrow safety margins and gas bubbles may form in the xylem
conduits reducing conductivity and potentially leading to desiccation of the plant. Safety margins are
largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the
vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure
regardless of their current rainfall environment.
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Fig. <hydrological cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HydrologicalCycle1.png – right: Emma Sage
/Rebecca Hale / What drives water cycles: Precipitation -> solar radiation, Hadley cells, wind patterns,
Ice -> wind! air temperature, ocean temperature, ocean currents, pressure oscillations Ocean currents
-> salinity, river discharge, temperature River discharge -> temperature, arctic ice/glaciers, human
modifications.
Precipitation
Precipitation is a critical component of the hydrological cycle influencing ecosystem properties, a
major source of energy for driving atmospheric circulation, and the main sink for aerosol particles and
most atmospheric trace gases. Knowledge of precipitation and its underlying processes are required in
research and application disciplines directly related to the global energy and water cycle. This includes
climate diagnostics and modelling, numerical weather prediction, now casting, hydrological
applications, oceanography, flood forecasting, transportation, agro-meteorology and water resource
management. It is crucial for understanding weather and climate on all scales and has a growing
socioeconomic and political impact as society adapts to climate change. Precipitation has great spatial
and temporal variability: knowledge of precipitation processes combined with the lack of global
measurements with the necessary detail and accuracy limit the quantification of precipitation. This is
especially true in the high-latitude regions where observations and measurements are particularly
sparse and the processes poorly known.
Within the climate system, precipitation is a major source of energy for driving atmospheric
circulation. It acts as a sink for atmospheric cloud water, and indirectly water vapour; it provides
fleeting storage of fresh water within the atmosphere; is a source of freshwater input into the
hydrological cycle, over both land and ocean and; is the source of solids for mass balances of glaciers
and icecaps. The storage, transport and release of latent heat associated with precipitation process
alone constitutes about 75% of the heat energy of the atmosphere, estimated to be c.85 W m-2 (ref.).
This is equivalent to about a third of solar radiative energy available to the Earth system and 80% of
the net radiative energy at the surface. There is new evidence that anthropogenic aerosols at very cold
temperatures can alter thin ice cloud formation (a very light kind of snowfall called diamond dust). This
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can increase the lifetime of summer storms and the likelihood of heavy, long-lasting precipitation and
flooding. It is therefore crucial to our understanding of weather and climate that we attain an accurate
knowledge of precipitation at all scales and under all conditions
5.1.2 CARBON CYCLE
The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate via its carbon
uptake capacity (Arneth et al 2010, Heimann & Reichstein 2008). The Eurasian area holds a large pool
of organic carbon both in the soil and frozen ground, stored during Holocene and the last ice age and
within the living biota (both above and belowground) but also a vast storage of fossil carbon. The soil
carbon storage of the circumpolar northern high latitude terrestrial ecosystems is estimated to be
between 1400 and 1850 Pg (McGuire et al. (2009), Tarnocai etal. (2009)) in the upper three meters of
soil. About 400 Pg of carbon is located in currently frozen soils that was accumulated in nonglaciated
regions during the Pleistocene, in what was then steppe–tundra vegetation (Zimov et al. (2006)), and
ca.250 PgC may be stored in deep alluvial sediments below 3m in river deltas of the seven major Arctic
rivers (Schuur et al., 2008). Due to these large storages, even small changes in processes influencing
carbon release and emissions can have significant impact on the behaviour of global climate. In highlatitude ecosystems with large, immobile carbon pools in peat and soil, the future net CO2 and CH4
exchange will depend on the extent of near-surface permafrost thawing, the local thermal and
hydrological regimes and interactions with the nitrogen cycle (Tharnocai et al 2009). The extra heat
produced during microbial decomposition could accelerate the rate of change in active-layer depth,
potentially triggering a sudden and rapid loss of carbon stored in carbon-rich Siberian Pleistocene loess
(yedoma) soils (Khvorostyanov et al 2008).
Larger scale vegetation shifts can also be anticipated with climate change in PEEX domain. The hemi
boreal transition zone will widen and move further north (Hickler et al 2012), affecting forest
distribution and productivity, carbon and water cycles. Such changes will lead to e.g. shifts in
greenhouse gas fluxes and BVOC emissions and concentrations (Noe et al. 2011 and 2012). The boreal
forests in high latitudes of Siberia are a vast, rather homogenous ecosystem dominated by larch trees
(of the area of ~260 million ha, or about one-third of Russian forests), which survive in the semi-arid
climate because of a unique symbiotic relationship they have with permafrost – the permafrost
provides enough water to support larch domination and the larch in turn block radiation, protecting
the permafrost from intensive thawing during the summer season. The anticipated climate warming
could decouple this close relationship and cause a strong positive feedback, intensifying the warming
even more.
The Land-Ecosystem Full Carbon Account developed by IIASA (Shvidenko et al., 2010a;
Schepaschenko et al., 2011a, Dolman et al 2012) has provided current estimates of C fluxes and
storages in Russia. The estimates showed that terrestrial ecosystems of Russia served as a net carbon
sink of −0.5-0.7 PgC yr−1 during the last decade. Forests provide for about 90% of this sink. The spatial
distribution of this carbon budget shows considerable variation, and substantial areas, particularly on
permafrost and in disturbed forests, show both sink and source behaviour. The already clearly
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observable greening of the Arctic is going to have large consequences to the carbon sink in coming
decades (Myneni et al., 1997; Zhou et al., 2001). The net biome productivity is usually a sensitive
balance between carbon uptake through forest growth and ecosystems heterotrophic respiration, and
its release from and after disturbances like fire and insects or weather events such as exceptionally
warm autumns (Piao et al., 2008; Vesala et al., 2010). This balance is delicate and for example in the
Canadian boreal forest estimated the net carbon balance is about carbon neutral, since fires, insects
and harvesting cancel the carbon release from forest NPP (Kurz and Apps, 1995; Kurz et al. 2008).
Photosynthetic assimilation of carbon dioxide by plants, i.e. gross primary productivity (GPP), is
probably the most significant and dynamic component of the carbon cycle, and applied in e.g. dynamic
global climate models. Therefore, methods to produce spatially continuous data on the dynamics of
GPP at a global scale are under intensive research. Remote sensing techniques have long been used to
follow the inter- and intra-annual variation in green biomass of forests, for example with the
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Greeness is strongly correlated with photosynthetic
light absorption, however, the efficiency to which absorbed energy can be utilized in carbon
assimilation varies with the physiological state of the foliage (photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE)).
For example, boreal evergreen forests retain most of their chlorophyll and greenness during winter but
their LUE and therefore GPP is close to zero. The photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) has been
found to be a good proxy of LUE at different spatiotemporal scales ranging from the leaf to the canopy
levels, or from the diurnal to the seasonal time scale.
Plant growth and carbon allocation in boreal forest ecosystems depends critically on the supply of
recycled nutrients within the forest ecosystem, because the external inputs in the form of atmospheric
deposition and weathering are very small compared to the total requirement. In the nitrogen limited
boreal and Arctic ecosystems the biologically available nitrogen (NH4 and NO3) is in short supply
although there is a large pool of immobilized nitrogen in the slowly decomposing soil organic matter
(SOM). The flux of assimilated carbon belowground may stimulate the decomposition of SOM and
nitrogen uptake of trees (Drake et al. 2011, Phillips et al. 2011). The changes in easily decomposable
carbon could enhance the decomposition of old soil organic matter (Kuzyakov 2010) and turnover
rates of nitrogen in the rhizosphere with possible growth enhancing feedbacks to vegetation (Phillips
et al. 2011).
The enhanced decomposition of SOM may also significantly affect the transport of terrestrial
carbon to the rivers, estuaries and the coastal ocean, a process with unknown contribution to the
global and regional carbon budgets. The role of aquatic systems as a net sink or a source for
atmospheric CO2 is presently under debate. When precipitation or other processes push large volumes
of organic matter from land into nearby lakes and streams, this carbon effectively disappears from the
carbon budget of the terrestrial ecosystem. Thus, the biological processes taking place in the terrestrial
ecosystem (e.g. photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition) and in the aquatic ecosystem are
interlinked. The higher temperature response of aquatic ecosystems compared to terrestrial
ecosystems indicates that substantial part of the carbon respired or emitted from the aquatic system
must be of terrestrial origin (Yvon-Durocher et al. 2012).
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Fig. warming climate could change carbon cycling in the Arctic. Although boreal forest will absorb more
carbon dioxide and methane from the atmosphere, increased forest fires and insect damage could release
more carbon to the atmosphere. http://whyfiles.org/2011/tundra-fire-bad-news-on-warming/
Although inland waters are especially important in lateral transporters of carbon, their direct
carbon exchange with the atmosphere, so called outgassing, has also been recognized to be a
significant component in the global carbon budget (Bastviken et al., 2011). In the boreal pristine
forested catchment lakes can vent ca. 10 % of the terrestrial NEE and thus weakening the terrestrial
carbon sink (Huotari et al. 2011). There is a negative relationship between lake size and the gas
saturation and especially small lakes are a relatively large source of CO2 and CH4 (e.g. Kortelainen et
al., 2006) (Vesala 2012). However, on landscape level large lakes can still dominate the GHG fluxes.
Small lakes also store relatively larger amounts of carbon in their sediments than larger lakes. The
role of lakes as long term sinks of carbon and simultaneously as clear emitters of carbon gases is
strongly affected by the water column physics; especially in lakes with very stable water columns and
anoxic hypolimnion sediment carbon storage is efficient but at the same time these kind of lakes emit
CH4. In general, the closure of landscape level carbon balances is virtually impossible without
knowledge on lateral carbon transfer processes and on the role of lacustrine ecosystems as GHG
sources/sinks. Besides lakes the studies should include rivers and streams which could be more
important than lakes as routes of terrestrial carbon and as emitters of GHGs.
In addition of being major drivers for fluxes of greenhouse gases, ecosystems also contribute to
exchange of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and natural aerosols (both primary and
secondary), the critical atmospheric components related to climate change processes. The emission
potential of BVOCs from ecosystems is directly related to the composition, activity and amount of
vegetation and prevailing climatic factors, most importantly temperature both in short term (daily
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maximum temperatures) and long term (growing season length). Primary biological aerosols, such as
pollen and fungal spores, are also affected by climate, especially temperature and humidity.
Boreal ecosystems are relatively inefficient as volatile organic compound (VOC) sources, but due to
their large aerial coverage, their contributions are both regionally and globally important. The reactive
VOCs are influencing the atmospheric O3 and NOx budgets, acting as precursors for secondary
organic aerosols (SOA) and influencing methane lifetime. VOC’s are emitted from vegetation as
mixtures of a variety of compounds, depending on plant metabolic activity both seasonally and
diurnally. As temperature is one of the main driving forces in VOC production, climatic factors will
greatly influence the ecosystem VOC production capacity and hence its impact on secondary organic
aerosol production.
As an example of interconnections, Kulmala et al. (2004) suggested a negative climate feedback
mechanism whereby higher temperatures and CO2-levels boost continental biomass production,
leading to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)
concentrations, tending to cause cooling.
5.1.3 NITROGEN CYCLE
Nitrogen is the most abundant element in the atmosphere, however most of the atmospheric N2 is
unavailable for plants and microbes, and can only be brought to the terrestrial ecosystems via
biological N2 fixation. This process is present only in some organisms living in symbiosis with plants,
making nitrogen as the main growth limiting nutrient in terrestrial ecosystems. Human perturbations
to the natural nitrogen cycle have, however, significantly increased the availability of nitrogen in the
environment. These perturbations mainly stem from the use of fertilizers in order to increase crop
production to meet the demand of the growing population (European Nitrogen Assessment, 2010).
The increased use of nitrogen and the fostered N cycling has also severe environmental problems such
as eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, atmospheric pollution and ground water
deterioration (European Nitrogen Assessment, 2010).
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ENA, 2010, chapter 1. Assessing our nitrogen inheritance, Sutton et al.
In natural terrestrial ecosystems, the nitrogen availability limits the ecosystem productivity, and
thus the carbon and nitrogen cycles are closely interlinked, whereas in aquatic ecosystems, the limiting
factor for productivity is often phosphorus (P). Higher temperatures due to climate change accelerate
nitrogen mineralization in soils leading to increased N availability, transport of N from terrestrial to the
aquatic ecosystems, and potentially to large net increases in carbon uptake capacity of ecosystems.
The large area of boreal and Arctic ecosystems impose that even small changes in the N cycling and
feedbacks to carbon cycling can be significant in the global scale (Erisman et al., 2011). For instance,
the increased atmospheric N deposition has lead to higher carbon sequestration of boreal forests
(Magnani et al., 2007), which, however, can be largely offset by the simultaneously increased soil N 2O
emissions (Zaehle et al., 2011). In the Arctic, indications of high emissions of N2O from the melting
permafrost (Repo et al., 2009; Elberling et al., 2010) may significantly influence the global N 2O budget.
In addition, the emissions of reactive nitrogen (NO, N2O (Korhonen et al., 2013), HONO (Su et al.,
2011)) from the soils tightly link the N cycling processes to aerosol formation in the atmosphere.
Understanding these processes, the interactions of reactive N with the cycles of carbon and
phosphorus, atmospheric oxidation, and aerosol formation events, and their links and feedback
mechanisms is therefore essential in order to fully understand how the biosphere affects the
atmosphere and the global climate (Kulmala & Petäjä 2011).
5.1.4 PHOSPHORUS CYCLE
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Phosphorus (P) is along with nitrogen (N) one of the limiting nutrients for terrestrial ecosystem
productivity and growth, and in marine ecosystems, P is the main limiting nutrient for productivity
(Whitehead and Crossmann, 2012). Role of P in nutrient limitation in natural terrestrial ecosystems has
not been recognized as widely as in case of N (Vitousek et al., 2010).
In global P biogeochemical cycle, main reservoirs are in continental soils where P in mineral form is
bound to soil parent material and in ocean sediments. Sedimentary P is originated from riverine
transported material eroded from continental soils. The atmosphere plays a minor role in P cycle, and
P cycle does not have a significant atmospheric reservoir. Atmospheric P is mainly originated from
aeolian dust and sea spray. Gaseous forms of P are scarce and their importance for atmospheric
processes is poorly known (Glindemann et al., 2009).
In soils, P is in mineral form bound to soil parent material such as in apatite minerals. Amount of P in
the parent material is a defining factor for P limitation, and weathering rate determines the amount of
available P in ecosystems in which most of the available P is in organic forms (Achat et al., 2013;
Vitousek et al., 2010). In ecosystems growing on P depleted soils, the productivity is more likely to be
limited on N in early successional stages and gradually shift towards P limitation along with age of site
(Vitousek et al., 2010). Southwestern Siberian soils have lately been reported to contain high
concentrations of plant-available P (Achant et al., 2013), which may enhance C sequestration of the
ecosystems taken that N is not too limited. In freshwater ecosystem, excess P leads to eutrophication
processes, which hava ecological concequences, such as loss of biodiversity due to changes in
physicochemical properties and in species composition (Conley et al., 2009). Due to the scarcity of
studies focusing on ecosystem P cycling, the effects of climate change on physicochemical soil
properties and P availability, and the interactions of P cycle with the cycles of carbon and nitrogen are
largely unknown.
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Fig. http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~gh19/b1510/phocyc.jpg; Source of P : from rocks, minerals through weathering (P
forms insoluble phosphates with Ca, Al). Organisms need P for : ATP, RNA, DNA, phospholipids). P is returned to dissolved
phosphates by excretion and phosphatizing bacteria . Turnover rates: several thousands of years. P- pollution: phosphates
in detergents (fresh water algal blooms)
5.1.5 LAND ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURAL CHANGES
Through the cycling of energy and material, ecosystems impact on their environment and the
environment impacts on the ecosystems. The species distribution and diversity, growth, fertility, biotic
and abiotic stressors are varying on multiple timescales. To enable proper estimates of GHG, BVOC
and reactive trace gas fluxes, both current and future, it is necessary to investigate such structural
changes over longer time scales. As example, global or regional-scale CTMs include the plant cover as
determined by the underlying ecosystem only as boundary conditions and a real feedback of the
biogeochemical cycles involving both biosphere and atmosphere is lacking.
One example of an ecosystem structural change and the climatic feedbacks is the reaction of the
plant cover to rising CO2concentrations. While higher ambient CO2 concentrations are increasing plant
growth, several other feedbacks can also be important as regards to climatic effects. A recent study
(Sun et al, 2013) shows, that on a whole plant canopy scale, the stimulated growth under doubled
atmospheric CO2 concentration can compensate for eventual reductions in the BVOC formation rates.
Also, warming of permafrost in pristine tundra will change these ecosystems from stable peatlands
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into dynamically changing and alternating land-water mosaic, and the impacts on GHGs may strongly
depend on this kind of changes.
Wildfires strongly influence boreal forest structure and function, as they can result in losses of 15%
– 35% of above-ground biomass and 37% – 70% of onground organic layers (Yarie and Billings 2002,
Shorohova et al. 2009). Release of carbon from fires and insect disturbances in Siberia is currently
about 6 % of the net primary productivity, NPP (Dolman et al 2012). Fires create large amounts of
woody debris that release carbon (Kolari et al. 2004) and may change stands from carbon sinks into
sources for long periods after the fire. At present about 0.8% of the boreal forest burn each year and
both stand replacing and intermediate severity fires are common in Eurasia (Conard et al. 2002,
Kasischke et al. 2005, Bond-Lamberty et al. 2006). In both cases fire functions as disturbance that
consumes the understory and moss layers along with a portion of the humus pool and with a portion
of the total C stored in the O horizon (DeLuca and Boisvenue 2012). In case of fire the amount of C in
mineral soil remains unchanged (Seedre et al. 2011). Fire alters the microbial biomass and species
composition structure e.g. by reducing significantly the abundance of decomposing bacteria (Hart et al.
2005) and fungi (Allison and Treseder 2008), which regulate the transfer of C from terrestrial
ecosystems to the atmosphere via the decomposition of soil organic matter in soil (Dooley and
Treseder 2012, Holden et al. 2012) and thus are likely to play a major role in mediating indirect fire
feedbacks to the C dynamics and circle. Fungi in boreal forests are particularly important as they can
degrade and mineralize organic material in soils with low soil pH (Högberg et al. 2007). Ash deposition
following fires increases soil pH (Peay et al. 2009), which may also result in decline in fungal biomass
and changes in their diversity. In the long-term run, fire substantially impacts of succession regularities
and species composition of forests.
The recent land use changes such as abandoning old agricultural lands and afforestation are
changing the ecosystems from carbon sources or carbon neutral into carbon sinks. Forestry has been
expanding over the last decades in the PEEX domain but might be now decreasing due to the
international structural change of the forest sector (Dolman et al. 2012). However, disturbances due to
mining are anticipated to increase, and albeit their immediate impact is rather localized, they may be
important also in catchment scale, affecting thus larger areas.
The PEEX area covers many very specific ecosystems. It is very important to be able to select the
key ecosystems that will be threatened by environmental changes for a moder comprehensive
analysis. This will enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies, as well as critical
evaluation of the potential socio-economic consequences of changing ecosystem structures (incl.
biodiversity) in the pressure of changing climate.
5.2 ATMOSPHERE : COMPOSITION AND CHEMISTRY
The largest anthropogenic climate forcing agents are greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosol
particles. Especially in the Arctic, there are also several possible amplifying feedbacks related to
aerosols and GHGs which are expected to follow the changing climate. Furthermore, Arctic
environment is also highly sensitive to changes in aerosol concentrations and composition, largely
due to the high surface reactance for the most part of the year. Concentrations of aerosols in winter
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and spring Arctic are affected by 'Arctic Haze' (Shaw, 1995); a phenomenon suggested to arise from
the transport of pollutants from lower latitudes e.g. (Stohl, 2006) and further strengthened by the
strong stratification of the Arctic wintertime atmosphere (Asmi 2012).
5.2.1 GREENHOUSE GASES
The feedback effects resulting from the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on the biomass
production of terrestrial ecosystems and soil organic matter decomposition are one of the biggest
uncertainties in the predictions of future climate. Even small proportional changes in the turnover of
these soil carbon stocks will reverse the terrestrial carbon sink to a source with a consequent increase
in the atmospheric CO2 concentration if the photosynthetic production of the forest is not increased
simultaneously. For example, 10% release of soil organic carbon to atmosphere is equivalent to all the
anthropogenic CO2 emitted during the last 30 years. Knowledge on the specific features of processes
in Pan Eurasian environment is required for the applications in Earth system modeling and in
understanding human-induced warming.
Fig. The CO2 fluxes dynamic in South shrubs tundra during last decade (modeling). It seems that the carbon
balance of tundra ecosystems can be switched from negative (CO2 sink) to positive (CO2 source) at the
increasing of temperature in warm period. Modeling of the dependence of carbon balance on temperature
shows that the increase of yearly mean temperature by 40C will make tundra ecosystems as a weak source of
CO2.
Ecosystem GHG responses to the climate change will vary depending on the ecosystem and climate
zone. In the heart of the continuous permafrost area, permafrost depth may extend to several
hundreds of meters and active layer depth is only a few tens of centimeters. Between the permafrost
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and non-permafrost regions, there is a wide intermittent permafrost zone. Following climate warming,
hydrological changes differ very much between continuous and intermittent zones. McGuire et al.
(2012) estimated that in the Arctic land area CO2 uptake by tundra vegetation has increased about
50% and methane emission doubled since 1990s. Hot spot methane emitting mud ponds may form
when permafrost mires thaw. On the contrary, lakes have disappeared as a result of intensification of
soil water percolation resulting (Smith et al., 2005). The fast summer ice loss, together with increasing
temperature and melting Ice Complex deposits, results in coastal erosion, activation of old carbon and
elevated CO2 and CH4 emissions from sea bottom sediments (Vonk et al., 2012). High methane
emission has been observed from the East Siberian Arctic Self (Shakhova et al., 2010). The network of
atmospheric (tall towers) and ecosystem-atmosphere exchange (flux towers) measurements of GHGs
should cover all these regions from steppe to the Arctic Ocean to encompass all varying responses
giving special attention high GHG emission potential categories such as the Yedoma soil area (Zimov et
al., 2006) and shallow sea shelves.
Fig. In consequence of increase of thaw depth
of permafrost the GHG stores in permafrost
may be liberated into atmosphere and the
ancient microbial communities may be involved
in the modern biogeochemical cycle .
Kudeyarov
et
al.
5.2.2 AEROSOLS AND CLOUDS
The Pan-Eurasia is a significant source of atmospheric aerosol particles and their gaseous precursors.
Aerosol physics and chemistry are in the core of forming a holistic scientific understanding on how the
intensity of anthropogenic actions, ecosystem biological activity and biogeochemical cycles of water,
sulphur, nitrogen and carbon are inter-liked with the climate system (see Figure below). Trace gases
and aerosol particles are tightly connected with each other via physical, chemical, meteorological and
biological processes occurring in the atmosphere and at the interface between the atmosphere and
different ecosystems over the land or ocean. For example, the precipitation response and thus the
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hydrological sensitivity differ strongly for the greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol (AE) forcing. Changing
anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions in the future will change precipitation patterns from
what one would expect from the GHG forcing alone.
Fig. Biogeochemical cycles, their link to aerosol formation and feedbacks in cloud formation, air quality
and climate processes.
The main constituents of atmospheric aerosol particles are the primary (POA) and secondary (SOA)
organic carbon emitted by both natural and anthropogenic sources, black carbon (BC) originating from
incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, secondary inorganic ions (sulphate, nitrate and
ammonia) that are formed in the atmosphere from mainly anthropogenic sulphur and nitrogen species
and ammonia, sea salt particles coming from oceans, and dust particles including both desert and road
dust.
Organic aerosols, originating from boreal forest and possibly other ecosystems, are the main
natural aerosol type over most of Eurasia. Studies conducted in the Scandinavian part of the boreal
zone suggest that new-particle formation associated with boreal forest emissions is a frequent
phenomenon, being the dominant source of the particles in terms of their number concentration
during the summer part of the year (Mäkelä et al. 1997, Kulmala et al. 2001, Tunved et al. 2006, Dal
Maso et al. 2007). If the same applies to the whole boreal forest zone, natural emissions from boreal
forests might induce regionally significant indirect radiative effects (Spracklen et al. 2008, Tunved et al.
2008, Lihavainen et al. 2009). Recent observations and model simulations indicate enhanced organic
aerosol formation at higher temperatures (Day and Pandis, 2011; Leaitch et al., 2011; Makkonen et al.,
2012; Paasonen et al., 2013), which suggest that aerosols associated with boreal forest emissions
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might be part of a significant negative climate feedback loop in a warmer future climate (Kulmala et al.,
2004).
A key point related to the climatic effects of both natural and anthropogenic organic aerosols (OA)
are their hygroscopic properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity. While a large fraction
of OA is known to be water soluble, the influence of organic species on the aerosol water uptake and
cloud formation are poorly known. Earlier studies indicate that microstructure of particles (Pöhlker et
al., 2012), their phase state (Mikhailov et al., 2004, 2009, Virtanen et al. 2010) and surfactant
properties of OC (Prisle at al., 2010, Raatikainen and Laaksonen, 2011) significantly impact on aerosolwater interaction under sub- and supersaturated conditions.
Black carbon is of specific interest over the PEEX domain. Deposition of black carbon onto snow
enhances greatly its albedo, enhancing the spring and early-summer melting of the snow with
concomitant warming over this region (Flanner et al., 2009; Goldenson et al., 2012). Close to its source
areas, BC containing aerosols cause the heating of the atmospheric layers where they reside, being
thereby capable of perturbing cloud formation and atmospheric circulation patterns (Koch and Del
Genio, 2010; Persad et al., 2012). In urban areas, high BC concentrations are usually indicative of poor
air quality. Over the whole PEEX domain, BC is a good tracer for combustion aerosols, including those
originating from domestic heating, forest fires or agricultural burning.
Sulfate and nitrate aerosol concentrations are usually highest in and downwind major urban areas
or industrial centres, enhancing the level of air pollution and aerosol climate forcing in those regions.
Sea salt particles make an important contribution the atmospheric aerosol over the Arctic Ocean and
its coastal areas, having influences on cloud properties over these regions. The climatic effects of sea
salt particles are expected to be changed in the future as a result of changes in the sea ice cover and
ocean temperatures (Struthers et al., 2011). Mineral dust particles affect regional climate and air
quality over large regions in the PEEX domain, especially during the periods of high winds and little
precipitation. Road dust is an important contributor to air pollution in many populated areas.
The role of the atmospheric aerosol in the cloud microphysics that impacts the electrification of
thunderstorms and shower clouds has been debated for more than a decade (Vonnegut et al., 1995;
Williams et al., 2002; Lyons et al., 1998; Altaratz et al. 2010). Several manifestations of moist
convection on a global scale in addition to lightning, such as warm rain clouds, large hail, and upper
tropospheric cirrus cloud have spatial variations that find plausible explanation in both
thermodynamics and in aerosol-modulated microphysics, making these two contributions difficult to
disentangle (Renno et al., 2012; Rosenfeld et al., 2012). It is especially important to determine the
microphysical constants in clouds including the influence of light ion densities and
hydrometeor/aerosol charges on the condensation and coagulation in clouds. Arctic clouds, along with
connections between cloud properties, sea ice and atmospheric circulation, is a specific challenge for
the PEEX domain (Karlsson and Svensson, 2011).
5.3 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
5.3.1 BOUNDARY LAYER
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Atmospheric planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are strongly turbulent layers immediately affected by
dynamic, thermal and other interactions with Earth’s surface. PBLs are subject to diurnal variations,
absorb surface emissions, control microclimate, air pollution, extreme colds and heat waves and are
sensitive to human impacts. Very stable stratification in the atmosphere above the PBL prevent
entities provided by surface fluxes or emissions to efficiently penetrate from the PBL into free
atmosphere. Therefore, the PBL height and turbulent fluxes through the PBL upper boundary control
local features of climate and extreme weather events (e.g., heat waves associated with convection; or
strongly stable stratification events triggering air pollution). This concept (equally relevant to
hydrosphere) brings forth the problem of modelling and monitoring the pbl height.
Dozens to thousands metres in height the boundary layer also controls the dispersion and transport of
the atmospheric admixtures, extreme cold and heat periods (Zilitinkevich 1991, Zilitinkevich et al.
2007, Zilitinkevich and Esau 2009).Comprehensive inventory of planetary boundary layer (PBL) height
over Eurasia will be addressed in a PEEX, as it is the layer where the basic observations will be
performed and is the weather human population is exposed to.
A big variety of geophysical and climatic conditions over the Eurasia make a study of surface
substance/energy flows (including aerosol and GHG flows) especially complicated. On the other hand,
just this variety will allow us to investigate in detail and verify different physical mechanisms of these
processes. It can be easily illustrated with the mechanisms responsible for new particle formation
(NPF) in the planetary boundary layer. There are many proposed nucleation mechanisms and their
contributions are not well known. As was revealed due to recent studies, the relative contribution of
these mechanisms into NPF varies substantially from one place to another (Manninen et al., 2010),
from one day to another and even during nucleation (Laakso et al., 2007; Gagn´e et al., 2010, 2012).
The gradient from arctic deserts to boreal forests, mires, steppes, deserts, and broadleaf forests gives
a possibility of simultaneous NPF observations in different ecosystems and reveal dominant physical
mechanisms.
Shallow, stably stratified PBLs, typical of winter time in the Northern Scandinavia and Siberia, are
especially sensitive to even weak impacts and, therefore, deserve particular attention, especially in the
conditions of environmental and climate change (Zilitinkevich and Esau, 2009). Unstably stratified PBLs
essentially interact with the free atmosphere through turbulent ventilation at the PBL upper boundary
(Zilitinkevich, 2012). This mechanism, still insufficiently understood and poorly modelled, controls
development of convective clouds, dispersion and deposition of aerosols and gases, essential features
of hot waves and other extreme weather events.
The traditional view on the atmosphere-Earth interaction as fully characterised by the surface fluxes
no longer copes with the modern concept of the multi-scale climate system, wherein PBLs couple the
geospheres and regulate local features of climate. In this context important role acquire the PBL height
and the turbulent fluxes at the PBL upper boundary. Good knowledge of the global atmosphere-Earth
interaction requires investigation, observation and monitoring of all these parameters.
5.3.2 ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
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The on-going environmental change in the PEEX domain will affect the atmospheric circulation as
the lower boundary forcing will change. Changes in surface properties, such as near-surface air
temperature and soil moisture, have direct forcing effects on the atmosphere affecting atmospheric
circulation. There are also indirect impacts via changes in fluxes of physical quantities, such as energy
and momentum. These changes operate on short time scales of hours to days and weeks. Another
type of impact to atmospheric dynamics arises because of the composition changes regarding
radiatively active gases and particulate matter. These mainly operate in seasonal-to-annual timescales, and beyond. From the point-of-view of atmospheric dynamics, the environmental changes in
the PEEX domain have thus severe impacts (1) on short-term prediction of physical conditions in the
domain, and more widely due to non-linear multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere and closely
coupled sub-systems, and (2) on longer predictions and projections about the bio-geochemical systems
in the domain, and world-wide.
A cross-section of the troposphere from the Equator to
the North Pole. The jet streams are at the intersection of
the upper boundaries of the different circulation cells.
Image
Credit:
NOAA
http://weatherclimatematter.blogspot.fi/2012/10/theeffects-of-losing-arctic-sea-ice.html
Tele-connections to the atmospheric circulation upstream in the Atlantic sector
This line of thinking is illustrated next by an analogy related to the recent changes in the Arctic sea-ice.
First, the recent changes in the sea-ice cover have been much more rapid than models and scientists
anticipated, say five to ten years ago. Second, the sea-ice changes have severely impacted the weather
conditions in the Northern European region. For instance, increased winter-time snowfall in
Scandinavia during 2010 - 2013 can be partly attributed to the thermal forcing of the increasingly open
sea surface in the Arctic sea and the associated tele-connections to the atmospheric circulation
upstream in the Atlantic sector. Longer term impacts are largely unknown because science community
has had only little time to create new knowledge on this question. With the PEEX domain, the
research needs and questions are very similar. Lack of knowledge hampers to anticipate evolution of
essential climate variables accross the domain on short lead times. At the same time, profound
changes in the system dynamics makes longer term projections highly uncertain. Thus, for improved
preparedness, new observational evidence is needed to reduce uncertainties in the system dynamics
both on short and longer time-scales.
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http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/climate-changeice-and-snow-and-the-albedo-effect_1597 Changes in
the Polar Regions can cause more warming in the entire
planet earth system through feedback effects. One such
effect is the reduction of ice and snow due to warmer
temperatures. When the white and gray snow and ice
disappears, less sun rays are reflected out and instead
the heat is absorbed by land and sea - which causes
further increase in the warming.
5.4 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS
5.4.1 ELECTROMAGNETIC (EM) WEATHER AND CLIMATE
The Global Electric Circuit (GEC) forms due to continuous operation of ionization sources providing
the exponential growth of conductivity in the lower atmosphere, from one hand, and to continuous
operation of thunderstorm generators providing a high rate of electrical energy generation and
dissipation in the troposphere. Therefore, the GEC is upon the influence of both geophysical and
meteorological factors, and can serve as a convenient framework for the analysis of possible interconnections between the atmospheric electric phenomena and climatic processes. Further exploring
of the GEC as a diagnostic tool for climate studies requires an accurate modeling of the GC stationary
state and its dynamics. A special attention should be paid to the study of generators (thunderstorms,
electrified shower clouds, mesoscale convective systems) in the global circuit, their observations and
modeling.
The Global Electric Circuit (GEC) is an important factor connecting solar activity and upper
atmospheric processed with the Earth’s environment including the biosphere and climate.
Thunderstorm activity maintains this circuit whose appearance is dependent on atmospheric
conductance variations in a wide altitude range. The anthropogenic impact to GEC through aviation,
forest fires and electromagnetic pollution has been noticed with great concern and the importance of
lightning activity in climate processes has been recognized (viitteet…). (KAURISTIE) A new geophysical
phenomenon (Transient Luminous Events) gave a new pulse to the study of electrical processes in the
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atmosphere and their impacts on the climate and human. The problems of Electromagnetic (EM)
Weather and Climate are becoming important part of environmental research nowadays.
Fig. The global atmospheric electric circuit, i.e.
the quasi-stationary current contour supported by
the operation of thunderstorm generators over the
globe, being an inherent part of the Earth’s
environment, occupies a unique place at the
interface between the lithosphere and ionizing
gaseous
envelopes
–
ionosphere
and
magnetosphere (Mareev, 2010) Onko tässä oikea
kuva. Mielestäni oheisella kuvalla ei ole paljoakaan
tekemistä GEC:n kanssa, tai sitten se on joku
yksityiskohta GEC:stä jota en tunne. Kannattaisi
mielestäni vaihtaa joku muu tilalle.
Astronomical factors of climate change
The current state of climate is due to many factors, including astronomical conditions. The most
investigated influence on a climate is the evolution of the orbital parameters ( e.g. orbit ellipticity and
rotation axis inclination) of the Earth that lead to variations in solar radiation impacting the
environmental conditions . At present, this factor is the most scientifically proved reason for the onset
of cold and warm periods in Earth's history.
The contemporary understanding of the causes of climate change is not yet sufficient to establish
confident conclusions. This is evidenced by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) . The fluctuations in climate that took place in different geological epochs should also be
analysed. These changes are the asymptotes for modern climate change. Therefore, to obtain reliable
predictions about the state of climate change in the decades it is necessary to understand the
mechanisms of change over longer time intervals.
5.4.2 HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS
The influence of heliogeophysical factors on environmental change and on regional and global
climate is variable .There is convincing evidence of a link between solar activity variations and warming
and cooling periods. Most changes in heat content of the Earth’s climate system in the 20th century
and climatic anomalies over the last 1000 years can be determined by solar activity. Examination of
long-term time series of climatic parameters confirms a major role of heliogeophysical factors in
forming the planet’s climate regime. At short time intervals, the considerable inhomogeneity of
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regional manifestations of climatic characteristics, which results mainly from changes in general
atmospheric circulation, complicates the search for mechanism and the estimation of the contribution
of solar variability to global climate change.
5.5 OCEANS
The Arctic Ocean plays a major role in the climate system. From the point of view of the interaction
between the ocean and the other components of the Earth system addressed in the PEEX science plan,
the essential processes include the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and matter (e.g. moisture,
CO2, and CH4) as well as dynamics and thermodynamics of sea ice. The major issues to be studied
include: (a) the role of the ocean in the Arctic amplification of climate change, (b) reasons for the
Arctic sea ice decline, and (c) effects of the sea ice decline on the ocean and surrounding continents.
Many of the processes considered responsible for the Arctic amplification of climate warming are
related to the ocean. Among them, the snow/ice albedo feedback has received most attention (e.g.
Flanner et al., 2011). The feedback is largest when sea ice is replaced by open water, but the feedback
starts to play a significant role already in spring when the snow melt on top of sea ice starts. This is
because of the large albedo difference between dry snow (albedo about 0.85) and wet, melting, bare
ice (albedo about 0.40). More work is needed to quantitatively understand the reduction of snow/ice
albedo during the melting season, including the effects of melt ponds and pollutants in snow. Other
amplification mechanisms related to the ocean include the increased fall-winter energy loss from the
ocean (Screen and Simmonds, 2010). Further, the melt of sea ice strongly affects (a) evaporation and,
hence, the water-vapour and cloud radiative feedbacks (Sedlar et al., 2011) and (b) the ABL thickness,
which controls the sensitivity of air temperature to heat input into the ABL (Esau and Zilitinkevich,
2010). The relative importance of the mechanisms affecting the Arctic amplification of climate
warming are not well known, but will be studied in PEEX.
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice cover has tremendous effects on navigation and exploration of
natural resources (Section 6.4). To be able to predict the future evolution of the sea ice cover, the first
priority is to better understand the reasons beyond the past and ongoing evolution. Several processes
have contributed to the decline of Arctic sea ice cover, but the role of these processes needs better
quantification. PEEX will conduct further studies on the impacts of changes in cloud cover and
radiative forcing (Kay et al., 2008), atmospheric heat transport (Ogi et al., 2010), and oceanic heat
transport (Woodgate et al., 2010). In addition, as the ice thickness has decreased, the ice pack has
become increasingly sensitive to the ice-albedo feedback (Perovich et al., 2008). Other issues calling
for more attention include the reasons for earlier spring onset of melt (Maksimovich and Vihma, 2012),
the changes in the phase of precipitation (Screen and Simmonds, 2011), and the large-scale
interaction of sea ice extent, sea surface temperature distribution, and cyclones (cyclognesis,
cyclolysis, and cyclone tracks).
In addition to thermodynamic processes, another factor affecting the sea ice cover in the Arctic is
the drift of sea ice. The momentum flux from the atmosphere to the ice is the main driver of sea-ice
drift, which is poorly represented in climate models (Rampal et al., 2011). This currently hinders a
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realistic representation of sea-ice drift patterns in large-scale climate models. Further, the
progressively thinning ice pack is becoming increasingly sensitive to wind forcing (Vihma et al., 2012).
PEEX will address the main processes that determine the momentum transfer from the atmosphere to
sea ice, including the effects of atmospheric stratification and sea ice roughness.
To better understand the links between the Arctic Ocean and terrestrial Eurasia, there is particular
need in PEEX to study the effects of Arctic Sea ice decline on Eurasian weather and climate. Several
recent studies suggest that the strong sea ice decline in the Arctic has been favouring cold, snow-rich
winters in Eurasia (Honda et al., 2009; Petoukhov and Semenov, 2010). Some studies have also
suggested a link between the sea ice decline and increased autumn snow fall in Siberia, which also
tends to favour hard winters (Cohen et al., 2012).
The increase of air temperatures and precipitation over the Arctic Ocean, projected by climate
models, may also have important effects on the structure of sea ice. Increased snow load on a thinner
ice tends to cause ocean flooding, which further results in formation of snow ice. Increased snow melt
and rain, on the other hand, results in increased percolation of water to snow-ice interface, where it
refreezes forming super-imposed ice (Cheng et al,. 2006). Snow ice and super-imposed ice have
granular structure and differ thermodynamically and mechanically from the sea ice that nowadays
prevails in the Arctic.
The changes in the Arctic Ocean have also opened some, although limited, possibilities for seasonal
prediction. These are mostly related to the large heat capacity of the ocean: if there is little sea ice in
the late summer and early autumn, it tends to cause large heat and moisture fluxes to the atmosphere,
favouring warm, cloudy weather in late autumn and early winter (Stroeve et al., 2012). On the other
hand, the reduction of sea ice thickness may decrease the possibilities for a seasonal forecasting of the
ice conditions in the most favourable navigation season in late summer – early autumn. This is because
thin ice is very sensitive to unpredictable anomalies in atmospheric forcing. For example, in August
2012 a single storm caused a reduction of sea ice extend by approximately 1 million km2.
PEEX RESEARCH QUESTIONS – MARITIME ECOSYSTEMS & THE ARCTIC OCEAN
• What will be the changes in ocean-land-atmosphere interactions / fluxes under changing ice
conditions and land-ocean contrast in the Arctic
• What will be the changes in the sea ice extent and snow cover under global warming?
• What will be the impact of temperature changes on algal blooms and the following sedimention,
i.e. carbon sink
• What will the impact of toxic algae bloom on drinking water pools and fishing areas (via remote
sensing influence from climate change Marine radioactive species & background radioactivity)?
 How will the cryosphere change over the next decades?
 How fast will the permafrost thaw proceed?
 How will the thawing permafrost affect hydrology, carbon fluxes and methane emissions?
 How are the main climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, snow cover, albedo, cloudiness)
are changing in the Pan Eurasian region?
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How do the fast climatic changes affect the physical, chemical and biological state of the different
ecosystems / inland waters (incl. thermokarst lakes and running waters of all size) and the coastal
area?
What are the important feedbacks in the Pan-Eurasian climate system both in terrestrial and
marine ecosystems?
How could particular areas especially sensitive to climate change be identified?
What are the tipping points of the Pan-Eurasian environment?
What is the role of the stably stratified atmospheric conditions in the functioning of the Eurasian
climate system?
Acceleration of hydrological cycle and changes in precipitation patterns
Arctic sea ice loss and changes in circulation patterns
5.6 PERMAFROST - CLIMATE VARIATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY THE POLAR AMPLIFICATION OF THE
CLIMATIC SIGNALS
The permafrost and the upper layers of the Earth crust are effected greatly by climate changes and
anthropogenic impacts. They could directly cause the destruction of landscapes, the change of thermal
regimes, the degradation of cryogenic systems, and the development of the processes dangerous for
human environment. At the same time the permafrost prevents fast changes of thermal balance the
surface due to numerous faze transitions in the water reach ground of active layer. Nevertheless, the
cryogenic systems are especially sensitive to the global climate variations that are accompanied by the
polar amplification of the climatic signals.
The fundamental processes of destruction, conservation, and self-organization of the Arctic and
Subarctic geosystems have key practical implications because of traditional and industrial human
activity in the Northern regions and the problem of environmental stability here. Therefore it is very
important to develop reliable multi-scale coupled models of regional climate variations and
cryospheric processes which could assimilate the observation data flow and calculate with high spatial
resolution effects of climate on the cryogenic systems.
It is especially important to describe accurately processes on the regional and local scales to
provide correct physical and mathematical description of the interaction of cryospheric, hydrological,
biospheric, and atmospheric processes in Arctic for calculating reliable multi-scale forecast of the
degradation processes in the interacting environmental systems.
For these studies it is extremely important to develop instrumentation for observation of
fundamental cryospheric processes, improve methods of geocryologic and geoecological monitoring
of natural and anthropogenic systems, conduct training of specialists for obtaining the objective
information about the current state of the Arctic geosystems. The above factors are the necessary
conditions for development methods and tools for maintaining the stable functionality of the Northern
infrastructure supporting the high-quality living standards of the native population and newcomers.
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So the environmental geocryological forecast becomes one of the most important scientific
problems that have far reaching implications for geopolitics and environmental security. It is especially
important to forecast the destructive processes in the natural systems that could cause environmental
disasters, because especially vulnerability of Arctic and Subarctic regions to the natural and
anthropogenic influence. This is the area of most dramatic interactions between cryosphere and other
geospheres affected by dynamic, thermal, and geological processes.
5.7 SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
PEEX agenda research contributes to socioeconomic issues related sustainability of Northern PanEurasian environments in a frame of land-atmosphere-ocean-society interaction. The PEEX socioeconomic agenda deals with climate change impact on environment, standards and quality of life of
local population, energy production and resources and demography development. The focus areas of
society dimension research are on air quality – energy production - human lives and activities,
potential natural hazards and related risks for society and sosio-economic risks related to the Arctic
Ocean. There all together are contributing to the demography development of Northern sociaties.
One of the most important factors, yet poorly-quantified players in the Arctic climate change
related to air quality; to the short-lived climate forcers (SLCF), such as black carbon and ozone. The
climatic impacts of SLCFs are tightly connected with cryospheric changes and associated human
activities. Black carbon has a special role when designing future emission control strategies, since it is
the only major aerosol component whose reduction is likely to be beneficial to both climate and
human health. Health issues are also important in the multidisciplinary studies of North Eurasia, as the
comfort conditions of the humans and livestock are changing dramatically. These changes can be
expressed in complex parameters combining direct effects of, e.g. temperature and wind speed, and
indirect effects of atmospheric pressure variability, frequency of unfavourable weather types such as
heat waves or strong winds, combined action of several climatic and non-climatic factors, etc. During
the last decades, generally the conditions for humans over North Eurasia become more comfortable,
but the process varies significantly over the territory and seasons (Zolotokrylin et al., 2012).
PEEX assessments and mitigation plans on climate and other natural change on human societies will
take into account that urban environment in Russian cities in the North and in the East. Different
climate parameters, such as temperature (including seasonal, weekly and daily gradients; extreme
values), strong winds, snowfalls, snowstorms, precipitation, etc. (including frequency of occurrence
and duration) should be investigated. They influence people’s health, incidence of diseases, adaptation
potential, and give information to choose a variant of permanent residence or expedition living,
acceptable age and gender structure of population, etc.
Major PEEX science questions will serve as a corner stone for development of anticipatory strategies
of adaptation and mitigation of the region to climate change. Taking into account dramatic character
of expected climate change and their impacts on environment, standards of life, health of population
and ecosystem services, adaptation – reducing the vulnerability of society and ecosystems to climate
change - is one of the most important socio-economic dimensions of the PEEX region. Adaptation
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includes adaptive capacity of ecosystems and socio-economic preparedness to realize the planned
measures of adaptation. Adaptation is a basis for effective mitigation of undesirable climate change.
Adaptation and mitigation measures could be effective if they are part of a wide strategy which would
involve all relevant sectors of national economy combining in common political and institutional
framework.
PEEX will consider scientific backgrounds and robust policies of adaptation and mitigation strategies
(AMS) of the region’s ecosystems with a special emphasis to the forest sector and agriculture. A high
vulnerability of boreal forests to expected climate change including non-zero probabilities of
irreversible thresholds and non-linear feedbacks will require development of a new type of dynamic
vegetation models describing functioning, productivity and resilience of forest ecosystems under
critical environmental condition. Development of AMS is a complicated task taken into account needs
of decisions for underspecified dynamic systems of a high uncertainty; relevancy to consider dual
strategy that integrates mitigating and adaptive measures; necessity to derive minimum mitigation
standards from the limits of adaptation; needs for considering transformative adaptation measures;
non-linear responses and feedbacks; uncertainty of economic and social developments etc. Adaptive
sustainable agriculture and forest management on the landscape-ecosystem basis will be considered
as a cornerstone of ASM and inter alia includes (1) integrated land observing systems; (2) new strategy
and institutional background of forest fire protection; (3) special measures for adaptation of structure
of boreal landscapes to global change; (4) management of major biogeochemical cycles etc. Taking into
account that AMS is an ill-defined and quasi-manageable task, there is a need in development and
implementation of new methodologies of applied system analysis by using open, iterative, distributedmodular approaches based on integration of shared pools of models, tools libraries, and observing
systems. Very likely, no single AMS appears able to achieve all possible management objectives within
the paradigm of sustainable ecosystems management, and AMS should be connected to regional
climatic, ecological and social peculiarities.
5.7.1 HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENT
5.7.1.2 LAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGES
Environment of Siberia and European North has been subjected to serious man-made
transformations during the last 50 years. Current regional level environmental risks are (Baklanov and
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Gordov, 2006): 1) direct damages to environment caused by accidents in processing of petroleum/gas
production and transportation, including their influence on water, soil, vegetation and fauna; 2) effect
of deforestation (cutting and forest fires) on variations in Siberian rivers runoffs and wetland regimes;
3) direct and indirect influence of forest fires and losses of gas and petroleum during their
transportation to regional atmospheric composition; 4) deposition of hazardous species leading to risks
to soil, water and food chain. This kind of regional problems are typical in many of the NIS and
European countries whose territories are crossed by pipelines and/or are used for petroleum
production.
Degradation and progradation of soil and vegetation cover, as well as subsequent permafrost
transformation, is caused by changes in domestic and wild reindeer populations in tundra and foresttundra of the North. On the other hand, agrogenic and post-agrogenic changes of permafrost-affected
soils and landscapes in the regions with cold ultra-continental climates and the consequences of these
changeson the carbon dynamicsis are important question to tackle (AMAP, 2009). During the 20th
century, a considerable transformation of landscapes of taiga zone in Northern Eurasia has occurred
as a result of various industrial, socio-economic and demographic processes, basically dealing with
industrial development of previously untouched territories. This is mainly caused by the decrease in
the rural population and the weakening of agricultural activity. There has been a significant reduction
in agricultural land use (in some areas up to 70%) and its replacement by zonal forest ecosystems
(Lyuri et al. 2010). As a result, these areas have become active accumulators of atmospheric CO2
(Kalinina et al, 2009), and agricultural resources have changed to new forest resources (“substituting
resources”), which can form the basis for sustainable development in these regions if relevant
management programs of the abandoned lands will be implemented.
Due to the temperature increase, there are multiple effects in the soil-vegetation-snow
environment. For example, due to warmer climate, mosses and other vegetation grow faster, which
provides better thermoinsulation of the permafrost in summer and better feeding conditions for
reindeers. However, snow can easilly accumulate on thicker vegetation, thus protecting deeper soil
from cooling during the winter (Tishkov, 2012). Changing permafrost conditions are also important for
transportation infrastructure in the permafrost regions.
MAJOR SCIENCE QUESTIONS DEALING WITH FOREST AND LAND COVER CHANGE IN SIBERIA
● What are the most probable trajectories of shifting of bioclimatic zones due to change of climate and
environment? How will it impact actual redistribution of major land cover classes?
● What is the strategy of transition to sustainable land use under expected changes?
● What are regional specifics of expected acceleration of disturbance regimes (wildfire, outbreaks of insects and
diseases)? How will it impact interactions between ecosystems and environment?
● What is the buffering capacity and adaptation potential of boreal forests? How expected climate and
environment change will impact functioning and vitality of boreal forests? How will it impact biodiversity?
● What is the probability of non-linear changes in functioning and vitality of ecosystems of high latitude
(particularly, boreal forests as a tipping element)?
● What are specifics of transition to sustainable agriculture?
• biodiversity issues
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• old-growth forests
• forest-agriculture transitions
• reforestation
5.7.1.2 BIOMASS BURNING ACTVITIES
TEX_TO_BE_ADDED
5.7.1.3 FUEL BALANCE
Crucial factor to emission dynamics and differentiation is fuel balance. In a regional scale, the small
town boiler rooms are the main source of emission. Usually the lack of financing leads to using bad
quality coal by boiler rooms. For example in Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Buryatia the main source of
emission by the traditional land use is firewood burning.
Fig. Next factor of emission dynamics and differentiation is fuel balance. The 3 factor of anthropogenic impact
is that - Fuel balance creates the raised levels of pollution. On average, specific emissions in northern and
eastern cities where coal accounts for most of power generation are respectively 3 times higher than in cities
where power is generated from gas or fuel oil. Geographical location, climate and coal burning are the main
reasons for increased levels of anthropogenic pollution in these areas. (Kasimov, Bityukova 2012 Helsinki
PEEX meeting)
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Dynamics of emission in Russia is largely determined by the economic condition of production. The
economic crisis of 1990--1998 improved the environmental situation in the country: emissions
generally decreased by 40%. However, the environmental problem not only remained unresolved, but
significantly deepened and turned into a systemic problem. The most polluting industries were more
resistant to declines in production; technological degradation took place; cleaning systems were
eliminated; and production shifted to part-time and, consequently, inefficient capacity utilization.
Significant amounts of pollution continued to be emitted from the domestic sector. Emissions
decreased in most regions of the country and in 83% of cities (but much more slowly than production).
As a result, the specific emissions (per product cost at comparable prices) had grown by the end of the
1990s in all categories of cities, except million-plus cities (Bityukova et al. 2010).
The second factor in the dynamics of human air pollution in Russian cities is the specialization of
industry inherited from the previous stages of development. The influence of industry on the
environment is characterized by such high differences that originally presented the technological
features of the leading factor of anthropogenic impact on the area. In recent years, these differences
are intensified due to the uneven modernization of different sectors.
Thermal power production is associated with high emissions in nearly all parts of the country.
Indicators depend on various factors, including capacity and type of power station, age of equipment
and, crucially, the type of fuel used. The climate both fuel balances define also absolute, and specific
levels of anthropogenous pollution and level branch distinctions.
Thus emission, its size, structure and dynamics are largely determined by factors inherited in the
period of rapid industrialization and project 50 years ago, the combination of them gives rise to a large
area of emission in a variety of cities. First of all - it is the fuel balance of energy and utilities, creating a
common background contamination. Secondly, industrial specialization, age and quality of assets.
Institutional environment and the policy of regional authorities determine the level of assets
modernization, which runs at different speeds and sometimes in different directions. Industry is the
most dynamic and often the most modernized factor of the regional environmental state. But
environmental problems are deeper, because elevated levels of emission are typical for the regions
where the natural conditions increase pollution, having a high potential for pollution of the
atmosphere. (Kulmala et al MS).
5.7.2 NATURAL HAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
5.7.2.1 STRONG WINDS, FLOODS, LANDSLIDES
Some experts believe that the frequency of natural hazards will increase under climate change and
corresponding transformations in the land cover (IPCC 2007). The North Eurasia territory is prone to
natural hazards of different origin. Those related to deep lithosphere processes (earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, tsunamis, etc.) are not relevant for this study. On the other hand, other hazards are related
to the atmospheric processes of various temporal and spatial scales: strong winds, floods and
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landslides caused by heavy precipitation, fires caused by drought, extreme temperatures, etc. To build
scenarios of their future frequency and behaviour, one should analyse the atmospheric mechanisms
behind the circulation structures responsible for most of the atmospheric hazards – the cyclones
(mostly responsible for relatively fast hazards such as winds and heavy precipitation) and anticyclones
(responsible for slow large-scale hazards such as drought and fires). Studying the cyclones/anticyclones
tracks, frequency and intensity can provide statistical basis to understand geographical distribution
and properties of the major atmospheric hazards and extremes (e.g. Shmakin & Popova, 2006). For
future climate projections, one should interpret atmospheric hazards and extremes from the viewpoint
of cyclone/anticyclone statistics and analyse possible changes in the geography and frequency and
5.7.2.2 NATURAL FIRES
Fires are the most important natural disturbance in the boreal forest that determine strongly the structure,
composition and functioning of the forest. About 0.5-1.5 % of the boreal forest burn each year which is a
significant land area since boreal forests cover 15% of the Earth's land area (Kasischke 2000, Conard et al.
2002). Already observed climate change substantially impacts current fire regimes in Northern Eurasia.
More frequent and severe catastrophic (mega-) fires become a typical feature of the fire regimes. Such fires
envelope areas of hundreds thousand hectares within large geographical regions; lead to degradation of
forest ecosystems; decrease the biodiversity; cause large economic losses; develop a specific weather
conditions over the area that is comparable with pressure systems (~30 mln ha and more); deteriorate life
condition and health of local population; and lead to “green desertification” - irreversible transformation of
forest cover for long periods. During the period of 1998-2010, the total burnt area in Russian territory is
estimated at 8.2±0.8 x 106 ha; about two third of this area is in boreal forests. For this period, the fire
carbon balance (total amount of carbon in the burnt fuel) is estimated at 121±28 Tg C year -1 (Shvidenko et
al. 2011). Current model projections by end of the century suppose doubling of number of fires, increase
the extent of catastrophic fires escaping from control, increase fire intensity, and 2-4 fold increase of
amount and composition of carbon emissions due to deep soil burning (Gromtsev 2002, Malevsky-Malevich
et al. 2008, Flanningan et al. 2009, Shvidenko et al. 2011). During and after fires significant changes take
place in the forest ecosystem and soil
 significant amount of biomass is combusted and large amounts of carbon and nitrogen are released to
the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide, other gases or particles (Harden et al. 2000)
 fire alters the microbial community structure in the soil and the structure of the vegetation (Dooley and
Treseder 2012)
 fires determine the structure of the vegetation, succession dynamics and fragmentation of forest
cover, tree species composition, and productivity of boreal forests (Gewehr et al. 2013)
 fire is a crucial driver which defines dynamics of carbon stock in boreal forests (Jonsson, Wardle 2010).
The emissions of volatile organic compounds depend on the vegetation and soil meaning that disturbances
resulting from fire and pests’ outbreaks will also have substantial effects on emissions of BVOCs and VONs
and consequently on the atmospheric aerosol formation. Acceleration of fire regimes will also affect the
amount of black carbon in the atmosphere and has thus effect on albedo of the cryosphere.
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In about 30% of lightning return strokes, a low amplitude continuing current (from ms to hundred ms
duration) is observed. The presence and duration of the continuing current is the most critical
parameter for lightning ignition of forest fuels (Latham and Williams, 2001). Fire can also alter
lightning: pyrocumulus clouds formed by large fires have a high proportion of positive cloud-to-ground
flashes, the opposite type of lightning from the normal cumulus. Recent studies in the Amazon region
demonstrated a decrease in the negative peak current, and an increase in the positive peak current
and the percentage of positive flashes (Altaratz et al., 2010, Price, 2009). A feedback of lightninginduced fire on clouds is an intriguing problem to be studied in the nearest future.
Deep convection, resulting in thunderstorm/lightning formation
The study of the regional features of lightning climatology is of great interest for different purposes
(Williams, 2005; Price, 2009), particularly in the course of extreme events and forest fire studies.
Measurements of deep convection and lightning in the Western Siberia (Gorbatenko and
Konstantinova, 2009; Gorbatenko et al., 2010) and the Eastern Siberia (Kozlov et al., 2009, 2011;
Mullayarov et al., 2009, 2010; Soloviev et al., 2009) were performed during the last decade which
reveled the regional peculiarities of lightning climatology in Eurasia. Taking into account the great
extent of this area, there is a strong need in the increase of observation points in addition to existing
ones (Tomsk, Yakutsk, Irkutsk) and to organise coordinated campaigns (together with Europe points)
during the convective seasons. The extreme thunderstorm events observed and studied in 2007-2010
in the Upper Volga region, allowed us to suggest a new method of measuring a number of
thunderstorm hours during a day as a quantitative, automatically measured index of regional-scale
lightning climatology (Shlyugaev et al., 2011 a,b). In the nearest future, we should proceed with the
short-term forecast of extreme meteorological events. The separate, but very important topics are the
aerosol and PBL height gradient impact on the electrification process and further extreme
thunderstorm cloud development.
5.7.2.3 SEA LEVEL RISE
In North Eurasia, from the eastern part of Barents Sea to the Bering Sea, the permafrost is located
directly on the sea coast. In many of these coastal permafrost areas, the sea level rise and continuing
permafrost degradation leads to significant coast erosion and to the possibility of collapse of coastal
constructions such as lighthouses, ports, houses, etc. In this region, the sea level rise is united with the
permafrost degradation in a complex way and requires focus in future studies.
It seems relevant to realize PEEX activities in three interconnected directions. (1) Measurement points
(not full stations) will be set up around the main stations. These stations would look at selected vegetation
soil atmosphere interactions (like CO2 other greenhouse gas fluxes as well as BVOC and VON
measurements). Vegetation characteristics and soil microbial biomasses will be measured from the sites
(Pumpanen et al. 2013). (2) Based on “multi” remote sensing concept, Integrated Land Information System
and using national and global information sources, a permanent monitoring system on impacts of
disturbances (fire, outbreaks of insects and diseases, anthropogenic pressure) on the environment and
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atmosphere will be introduced. (3) Outputs of the monitoring system will be used for appropriate modeling
within the PEEX and for distribution of relevant information to the stakeholders and public.
5.7.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES IN T HE ARCTIC OCEAN
5.7.3.1 NAVIGATION
The Arctic Ocean is ice-covered preventing ship traffic from October to June. The predicted
shortening of the ice cover period draws attention to possibilities for more extensive navigation.
The Northern Sea Route is opening for navigation first, with some traffic already: in 2012 a total of 46
cargo ships passed the route. The present length of navigation season is 49±18 days (Khon et al., 2010),
and in the end of the 21st century it is expected to be two or three times as long. There are, however,
expectations to navigate between Atlantic and Pacific directly via the North Pole already in this decade.
The Northern Sea Route is expected to be used above all by oil and gas tankers and individual cargo
ships. A strong increase in the traffic is still prevented by the large inter-annual variability of sea ice
conditions, and the lack of reliable seasonal forecasts. Even in summers with exceptionally little ice in
the Arctic, the Northern Sea Route may be blocked by ice due to transport of ice from the north. This
was the case e.g. in late summer 2007, when the record minimum sea ice extent (prior to 2012) was
observed.
5.7.3.2 OIL AND GAS DRILLING
The future role of the natural resources of the Arctic Ocean for the global energy market
will be significant because it may hold 25% or more of the world's undiscovered oil and gas resources
(Yenikeyeff & Krysiek 2007). Various quantitative estimates scatter, but the likely remaining reserves in
the Arctic may be approximately 75% natural gas and 25% oil. The exploration of these resources is,
however, expensive, and includes technical challenges and serious environmental risks. The risks
include oil spills and other accidents which may cause pollution as well as loss of life and property.
Combatting oil spills is particularly challenging in the presence of sea ice. However, with continuing
high oil prices and rapid decline of the sea ice cover, the region is now receiving increasing interest of
oil and gas industry. A noteworth socio-economic and political aspect is that the planned use of Arctic
oil and gas resources will further increase the greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere.
The exploration of the oil and gas resources will also generate a strongly increasing need for
operational meteorological and oceanographic services for the Arctic, including forecasts for the ocean
(sea ice thickness, concentration, drift vector, degree of ridging, wave height, current speed) and
atmosphere (Polar lows and other storms, aviation weather, icing risk).
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Figure N. Expected shipping routes in the Arctic.
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/10/the
-future-of-arctic-shipping.html
Figure N. Oil and gas resources in the Arctic.
http://geology.com/articles/arctic-oil-and-gas/
5.7.3.3 ARTIFICIAL RADIONUCLIDES IN MARINE ECOSYSTEMS’ COMPONENTS
Understanding and measuring of Artificial radionuclides in marine ecosystems’ components is needed
to improve emergency preparedness capabilities and risk assessments of potential nuclear accidents. It
is also need for to raise awareness and knowledge in the general public and associated stakeholders
across the region as to the nature, challenges and associated risks with nuclear technologies,
emergency preparedness and radioactivity in the environment.
The current state of radioactive contamination in terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the
EuroArctic region by examining environmental samples collected from the Finnish Lapland, Finnmark
and Troms in Norway, the Kola Peninsula and the Barents Sea. The results will provide updated
information on the present levels, occurrence and fate of radioactive substances in the Arctic
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environments and food chains. It will also be possible to estimate where the radioactive substances
originate from and the risks they may present in case of a possible accident.
Annual expeditions for sample collection are needed for the development of models to predict
distribution of radionuclides in the northern marine environment and for the assessment of the
current state of radioactive contamination in marine ecosystems in the Euro-Arctic region. With the
view of recent developments and increased interests in the Euro-Arctic region for oil and gas
extraction, special attention needs to be given to analyses of NORMs (Naturally Occurring Radioactive
Materials) to understand current levels. The Work will focus on atmospheric modelling and the
assessment of radionuclide distribution in case of accidents in EuroArctic region with the release of
radioactive substances to the environment incl. nuclear accident scenarios for dispersion modelling.
Stations of sampling for radioecolgical investigations during Russian-Finnish high-latitude expeditions on board
RV «Dalnie Zelentsi», 2007-2009; The expedition routes included standard section No. 6 in the Central Barents
Sea, areas near the Spitsbergen and Franz Josef Land Archipelagos, sections along the western, northern and
northeastern borders of the Sea, the area near the Novaya Zemlya western coast, section via the trenches in the
southeast. (Matishov).
6. PEEX RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE
The PEEX Foci-2 is to establish a sustain, long-term Pan Eurasian research infrastructure including
measurements hardware, software and validated and harmonized data products to be implemented
to the models of appropriate spatial, temporal and topical focus. PEEX methods are In-situ field
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continuous, comprehensive observations, remote sensing by satellites, laboratory experiments and
field campaigns, ice core data, modeling, staff exchange scheme & knowledge transfer and inventories.
The approach is based on updating and harmonized existing stations and building new stations, which
act as test beds, as integrated research platforms. The database development and standardize data
products will be made in collaboration with the currently on-going European infrastructure projects.
6.1 MEASUREMENTS
6.1.2 FIELD MEASUREMENTS: LAND – ATMOSPHERE – AQUATIC
6.1.2.1 VISION OF PEEX FIELD STATIONS NETWORK
The PEEX labelled network of field stations from Scandinavia to China with a continuous,
comprehensive science program should be based on a hierarchical station network (Hari et al. 2009)
set up for the comprehensive measurements measuring fluxes, storages, and processes providing
quantitative process understanding of the multidisciplinary system. Network of hierarchical station
network would base on a) basic stations (like weather stations), b) flux stations (like Fluxnet stations)
and c) Flag ship stations (comprehensive stations + sources and sinks for greenhouse gases, trace
gases, aerosols) connected to d) to remote sensing and airborne measurements could prove a
comprehensive measurement needed to model the climate system behaviour (Hari et al. 2009). The
station network would include several SMEAR-type (Stations for Measuring Forest ecosystem –
Atmosphere relations), flag ship stations.
Fig. LEFT: SMEAR – a flag ship station concept. SMEAR-type stations measure meteorological factors
and atmospheric parameters (aerosol) simultaneously together with several processes and
phenomena in a forest ecosystem enable the understanding of feedbacks and connections, joining the
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ecosystem compartments and the surrounding atmosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere in a dynamic
manner (Kulmala et al. ).RIGHT Block diagram of a standard observation site (Kabanov et a
SMEAR-type stations measure meteorological factors and atmospheric parameters (aerosol)
simultaneously together with several processes and phenomena in a forest ecosystem enable the
understanding of feedbacks and connections, joining the ecosystem compartments and the
surrounding atmosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere in a dynamic manner. These SMEAR-typedecosystem measurements include (i) carbon and nitrogen fluxes (photosynthesis, respiration, growth),
(ii) trace gas exchange (reactive carbon compounds, N-compounds, ozone), and (iii) hydrological fluxes.
It would be crucial to have one supersite in all major ecosystem areas (Fig. XX), which in practice
would mean a station in every 2000 - 3000 km.
Figs. Existing field stations in PEEX domain representing different type of environments: Zotto <coordinates,
302 m, boreal forest>, Tiksi <coordinates, arctic tundra>, (Zotto photo -Elansky, Tiksi photo- E.Asmi)
High quality observations and explorative experiments are required to cover:
 to different ecosystems in a boreal forest zone
 to taggle the specific features related to permafrost thawing and reduction of ice cover of the
Arctic Ocean
At the moment the spatial coverage of the station network and other research infrastructure is
unevenly distributed in the Pan Eurasian region. A lot of measurements have been conducted in the
Western Siberia, however some remote Siberian areas remain out of reach. There are several longterm measurement stations, towers and masts equipped with a diverse instrumentation providing data
on multiple gas and particle parameters; campaign-based measurements have also been carried out.
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Fig. 3. Measurement sites and campaigns in Siberia. For numbers and names of the sites see Table 1 in BER).
The main problems of the existing national system of atmospheric monitoring in Siberia are
deterioration of measuring instruments, insufficient development of the maintenance capabilities that
would allow to upkeep and control the quality of measurements, lack of continuous observations for a
large fraction of its territory, insufficient equipment with means of data processing and transmission,
and its incompatibility with the existing international observation networks. At present, reconstruction
of the Russian System of Atmospheric Monitoring (RSAM) is on the way. It includes both the
modernization of research equipment and a broader use of remote sensing methods with prospects
that in the future RSAM will be a part of the Integrated Global Earth Observing System..
In the first phase the PEEX observation network as a whole would consist of existing intensive
stations and their measurement programs and quality analysis and data dissemination procedures
developed in other projects. In order to ensure long-term sustainability and comparability, these
measurements would be connected to international networks wherever possible. The existing ones
should be equipped with the missing instrumentation so that they can contribute to PEEX efficiently.
The minimum setup should must consist of tools for the measurement of fluxes and concentrations of
aerosols and trace gases including GHG, snow/ice cover, surface radiation budget components, and,
finally, supporting meteorological quantities. Continuous data obtained from satellites (Fig.) would be
complemented with in-situ measurement data from air-craft, trans-Siberian railway and research
vessels.
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Fig. Example of existing research infrastructure: the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric physics measurements
(Elansky ppt. Helsinki WS)
In the second phase several new pan-Eurasian field stations will be built in order to provide for
improved spatial coverage for the research. In practice, at least one supersite with comprehensive
water-soil -atmosphere measurements for every representative biome is needed.
Several targeted field experiments would have to be performed as well to investigate processes in
more details. The in situ field experiments would be made on ground-based stations, aircraft and ships,
in addition to using existing data sets and archives.
IN SITU FIELD EXPERIMENTS MADE ON GROUND-BASED STATIONS, AIRCRAFT AND SHIPS PROVIDE
DATA E.G. ON
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
short-lived pollutant concentrations and greenhouse gas concentrations in air and biosphere and
deposition on vegetation, snow and ice surfaces
seasonal evolution of terrestrial and oceanic snow and ice cover
PBL structure
surface radiation and heat exchange fluxes of key species
cloud properties
relevant meteorological variables
ecosystem functioning, e.g. primary productivity, transpiration and water use efficiency, soil respiration,
nutrient cycling
production and exchange of VOCs, CH4, N2O between ecosystems and atmosphere
vegetation phenology, length of growth period, greening
chronosequences of different disturbances (forest fires, ….)
population migration (birds, insects, mammals, plants), species extinction, invasive species occurrence
transitions from woodlands to grasslands/tundra or vice versa, treeline advancement towards higher and
northern latitudes
Terrestrial ecosystems full carbon account (fca)
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Current science of global change comes to understanding of a need of full and verified Terrestrial
Ecosystems Full Carbon Account (FCA). Uncertainties of previously reported estimates of the role of
terrestrial ecosystems in global biogeochemistry are large (e.g., Shvidenko & Nilsson 2003), hindering
scientific understanding of the problem (Schulze et al. 2002) and hampering political and economic
decision making (e.g., Janssens et al. 2005). However, assessment of uncertainties of FCA is not trivial
and requires new approaches. The FCA, particularly for large territories (e.g., at national or continental
scales), is a typical fuzzy (underspecified) dynamic system (full complexity or wicked problem). It
means that the uncertainties of the results obtained by any of existing methods of assessment of
terrestrial ecosystems carbon cycling (i.e., landscape-ecosystem approach; process-based models;
eddy-covariance; inverse modeling), if those are applied individually, are able to present only an
“uncertainty within an approach” which could have a little common with “real uncertainty” (Shvidenko
et al 2010). The PEEX will provide a systems analysis and future elaboration of this problem. One of
possible ways is further improvement of methodology developed by IIASA. This methodology is based
on system integration of different methods with following harmonizing and mutual constraints of
intermediate and final results obtained by independent methods (Shvidenko et al 2010, 2013).
6.1.2.2 LAND: PERMAFROST MONITORING
Temporal development of permafrost will be monitored using the existing subsurface temperature
observatories in Eurasia. As a special additive to surface and meteorological data, borehole
temperatures, which can be used for forward and inverse modeling of ground surface and subsurface
temperature development, will be compiled from previous historical data sets ad new observations.
Selected shallow (<100 m) and deep (>1 km) boreholes will be instrumented for long-term
observations of temperatures. A set of ‘borehole observatories’ will be established extending from
Europe to Siberia and China. This will require organized international collaboration in initiating and
running an efficient subsurface monitoring program.
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Fig. Annual ground temperature in bore holes at Yamal (Melnkov)
Observing Permafrost changes
An extremely important aspect in PEEX is therefore the connection between the thermal and
climatic conditions of the subsurface layers (soil and bedrock) in the forthcoming decades. The
predicted and already documented warming in the atmosphere will inevitably result in warming of the
permafrost layer and is easily observed in deep borehole temperature data. However, the changes
depend on the soil and rock type as well as the pore-filling fluids. As long as the pore-fill is still ice the
climatic changes are reflected mainly in the thickness of the active layer and slow diffusive
temperature changes of the permafrost layer itself. In areas where the ground is dominated by low
ground temperatures and thick layers of porous soil types (e.g., sand, silt, peat), the latent heat of the
pore filling ice will efficiently ‘buffer’ and retard the final thawing efficiently. This is one of the reasons
why relatively old permafrost exists at shallow depths in high-porosity soils. On the other hand, quite
different conditions results may prevail in low-porosity areas, e.g. in crystalline rock areas
Further, relatively low geothermal gradient may allow the temperature-depth curve to be within
the stability field of methane hydrates, and it is one of the essential questions in the PEEX programme
to improve understanding of the potential release of methane and (other gases) from the layers of
thawing permafrost. Prediction and modeling of the methane gas release requires well-coordinated
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observations systems, including shallow and deep boreholes with thermal instrumentation, estimation
of the amount of gas-hydrates in situ, and application of indirect geophysical proxies for monitoring
the time-dependent changes in the permafrost layers. One of the most interesting techniques would
be the use of ground-based and airborne geophysical measurements utilizing the electrical
conductivity contrast between frozen and thawed soil. Combining results of such surveys repeated at
regular intervals (e.g., 1-5 years) with long-term borehole and laboratory data would allow covering
large areas surrounding the PEEX stations.
6.1.2.3 ELECTRIC FIELD MONITORING
Synchronous observations of the electric field have been organized at three stations, spaced at the
distances from 100 to 370 km each from another at the European part of Russia: “Borok” (58 004´ N
and 38014´ E), “Prozorovo” (580 23' N; 370 39' E) and “Gorodets” (56041´ N and 43026´ E). Electrostatic
fluxmeters are used as the sensors of the main component of the atmospheric electric field and
variations in its intensity. Along with the electric field variations, the variations of the electric current
and air polar conductivities are measured at the stations “Borok” and “Gorodets”. In Borok the
antenna of current collector type is the 1000-m long wire mounted on 30 supports about 4 m in height
lying on a circle of about 300 m in diameter. In Gorodets a current-collector antenna is the 20-m wire
mounted on isolators about 5 m in height. A unique database of aeroelectric and magnetic data has
been created with the results of observations performed in summer periods from 2005 to 2012, which
includes also the measurement data in Irkutsk region.
Complex field experiments under thunderstorm conditions are available on the basis of the
observational set-up arranged in Nizhny Novgorod and Gorodets as well. Radio-emissions from
thunderstorms are registered with a portable three component (two components of horizontal H-field
and vertical E-field) ELF receiver. The sampling frequency was 20 Hz under fair weather conditions and
20 kHz during one hour after the triggering signal when a thunderstorm is detected. Synchronous four
channel registration with time resolution of 50 microseconds (in a fast mode) provided fine structure
of lightning-current observations. We use the data of a 3.2 cm - wavelength radar situated in Nizhny
Novgorod with the effective range of about 150 km, and the data of standard aerologic sounding
performed in Nizhny Novgorod. As a result of observations a unique database of aeroelectric and
magnetic data has been created for extreme meteorological events occurred in summer periods of
2005 - 2012.
6.1.2.4 ATMOSPHERE:AEROSOLS
Aerosol scattering and absorption properties determine the aerosol direct climatic impacts. At
present, global models have great difficulties in reproducing the annual aerosol quantities observed in
the Arctic (e.g. Korhonen et al., 2008). This is attributed to poorly quantified aerosol source regions
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showing seemingly high seasonality, improper description of aerosol emissions and insufficiently
captured aerosol removal processes. The need for long-term observations for thorough quantification
of annual Arctic aerosol properties and climate impacts is requested by several studies (e.g. AMAP,
2011). Data on aerosol scatting and absorption properties can serve as a valuable comparison for
remote sensing and model studies…
High-quality aerosol/BC monitoring
The development of the high-quality aerosol/BC monitoring, based on state-of-art aerosol
technology and BC measurement techniques should be extended over various ecosystems in Arctic and
boreal Pan Eurasian regions. Research capabilities focus on characterization of natural aerosol sources
and BC emissions, released by boreal forest/grass wildfires, industry, gas flares, diesel sources, and
residential heating. Spatial and temporal aerosol/BC mass, number, size, light absorption, physicchemical and cloud-forming properties will be evaluated in urban and rural regions, between
continental and marine environments. Comprehensive characterization of key aerosol characteristics
will bring the particular advantage for assessment of short-lived climate forcer impacts in regional and
global models to address the most significant direct and indirect effects and feedback mechanisms of
combustion aerosols on Arctic climate forcing.
Climate-relevant major national emission sources in Pan Eurasian regions are of important concerns
for assessment, with special emphases on Arctic pollution sources such as diesel stationary stations,
gas flares, and shipping. The major deliverables will be source-specific aerosol characterization,
including molecular markers for source-apportionment studies. The chemical fingerprints will be
evaluated to separate source contributions at receptors, especially for deposited BC in Arctic snow
with impact the icecap melting and radiation balance of atmosphere.



Development of high-quality, large-scale aerosol/BC monitoring in boreal Pan Eurasian regions;
Characterization of biomass burning and fossil fuel BC emissions from climate-relevant major national sources;
Recovering spatial and temporal distributions of aerosol optical thickness using long-term observations on Russian
meteorological network
Aerosol sun/sky radiometric measurements
A huge development of passive remote sensing measurements happen in Europe in the last 10-15
years. The current density of stations will allow to provide at an high time resolution a picture of the
aerosol particle population present in the whole atmospheric column when a real integration will be
operated. The multi-instrumental character of the European scenario, the presence of sites where
different example are located, and the real possibility to provide an integration work for calibration
and analysis methodologies provides a bridge between AERONET and SKYNET. The improvement of
observations is necessary in some area of this vast region, to better represent/monitor long range
transport
of
Sahara
dust
and
pollution
from
Asia
and
Middle
East.
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Figure 1 - Map of the sun/sky photometric stations with indication of the type of
instrument(s) operating there routinely (Vitale
6.1.2.5 ATMOSPHERE: MONITOR GRADUAL CHANGES OF GHG CONCENTRATIONS
To monitor gradual changes of GHG concentrations as well as to catch short-term exceptional episodes
the long-term continous measuremenst are needed. The impacts of various ecosystems on the
atmospheric GHG loads can be estimated by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The top-down
approach is based on tall towers combined with inversion from concentrations to sinks/sources. The
bottom-up approach is based on flux towers with up-scaling.
The tall tower is an observatory established to measure continuously the GHG and other trace gas
(e.g. CO) concentration variability due to regional and global fluxes. The tower must be at least 100 m
high to reach over the atmospheric surface layer most of the time. A site chosen for installing a tall
tower will be typically representative of a footprint area of more than 100 km2. Additional stations,
with a more local footprint for instance located in areas of high local emissions will be associated.
From the spatial differences of concentrations determined by a tower network combined with the
atmospheric transport model, the surface sinks and sources can be estimated by mathematical
inversion method. Furthermore, if the anthropogenic sources are known the sinks/sources of natural
ecosystems are obtained.
The tall tower network is supported by a flux tower network. A flux tower utilizes eddy covariance
(EC) method, which is a direct micrometeorological flux measurement technique with high time
resolution and it provides exchange rates (fluxes) at ecosystem scale, extending 100 m – 1 km away
from a tower (Aubinet et al., 2000). Additional measurements of ancillary parameters on air, plants
and soil (or water body) are also made within this footprint area. The surface can consist of bare soil,
vegetation or water. Ideally, the surface around the tower should be homogeneous so that the
measured fluxes are representative of the surface irrespectively of the wind direction. Additional data
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collected at the ES vary depending on type of ecosystem but generally they include continuous
measurements of micrometeorological quantities such as temperatures, humidity, radiations,
concentration of greenhouse gases and precipitation, and ancillary information such as biomass,
vegetation and soil carbon and nutrients, management and disturbance site history. The purpose of
the ancillary measurements is to support process studies and to help to understand the physical and
biotic factors controlling the GHGs fluxes.
6.1.2.6 ATMOSPHERE: DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW METHOD OF PBL DIAGNOSTICS
A significant attention will be paid in particular to the development of a new method of PBL
diagnostics based on atmospheric electricity measurements under different meteorological conditions.
As was found during last decades, convection in PBL leads to the formation of aeroelectric structures
manifested in ground-based measurements in short-period electric-field pulsations with periods from
several to several hundred seconds (Anisimov et al., 1999; 2002). The sizes of such structures are
determined by characteristic variation scales of aerodynamic and electrodynamic parameters of the
atmosphere, including the PBL and surface-layer height as well as inhomogeneities of the ground
(water) surface. Formed as a result of convective processes and capture of positive and negative
charged particles (both ions and aerosols) by convective elements (cells), aeroelectric structures move
in an air flow along the Earth's surface. The further evolution of convective cells results, in particular, in
cloud formation. Development of the methods of diagnostics and modeling of aeroelectric structures is
important for a study of both convective and electric processes in the lower troposphere (Shatalina et
al., 2005, 2007).
Methods of complex diagnostics of the GC
Methods of complex diagnostics of the GC operation using ground-based, balloon-borne and satellite
facilities will be developed which supplement substantially the main goals of the PEEX project
KEY ASPECTS OF THE MEASUREMENT INFRASTRUCTURE & STATIONS NETWORKS
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Comprehensive system for the monitoring of different environments
Updating existing research stations and establishing new ones to cover different ecosystems -> generate the
best representation of vertical column starting from the soil/vegetation and extending up to the free
troposphere
Connections to remote sensing and airborne measurements , in situ
Both mobile (TROICA) & stationary monitoring sites
Geographical coverage (ecosystem types) of monitoring
Stations should be connected to calibration centres and become global (GAW), data quality control
6.1.2 REMOTE SENSING
Monitoring dynamics of Northern treeline in Russia
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Circumpolar northern regions and sub-arctic environments, and the transition zone to the Arctic
represent regions and the zone, which are internationally recognised due to its exceptional importance
in terms of climate feedbacks, global vegetation, and settlements by indigenous people. Large scale
changes in the structure and location of this zone (as predicted) will affect the total northern
environment with its people, landscapes and sustainability of resource use.
In the framework of PEEX, a valuable direction will be continuation of current activities on
monitoring the northern forest limit in natural and industry-impacted environment. Transects already
established need to be strengthened to provide for re-survey in ca. 50 years and beyond. Remote
sensing monitoring should be continued and developed using new technologies including optical
hyperspectral and radar data. This research should be integrated with long-term ground monitoring of
treeline ecotones by MSU and Centre for Problems of Forest Ecology and Productivity RAS (Dr Natalia
Lukina).
 BENEFITS-PROJECT
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Characterisation of and monitoring tool development for the transition from forest covered regions to tundra
Vegetation dynamics and growth responses to environmental changes and stressors
Construction of a Northern Socially oriented Observation System Network
several key sites in central and northern Kola Peninsula, as well as in north-central Siberia (Putorana Mts and southern
Taimyr, the Ary-Mas biospheric reserve)
Monitoring transects have been established in treeline ecotones and remote sensing studies of treeline status and
dynamics have been conducted.
Resulting in detailed maps of treeline ecotone at key sites and in estimates of ecotone dynamics in Kola peninsula
(where advance of treeline at various rates is observed).
continuing in Kola Peninsula, with focus of collecting spectral reflectance data on tundra and treeline ecotone species,
using round hyperspectroradiometer (ASD FieldSpec Pro Hi-Res) with an aim to characterize ground reflectance of
Arctic species and upscale to remote sensing data.
analysis and long-term monitoring of impact of industrial activity on vegetation, exemplified by metal smelters at
Monchegorsk and Norilsk. On the background of general treeline advance in Kola peninsula, the industry-related
retreat of mountain treeline near Monchegorsk is estimated at hundreds of meters.
EXISTING REMOTE SENSING ACTIVITIES - AEROCOSMOS monitoring:
 monitoring forest fire; near real time fire monitoring by «aerocosmos» system
 assessment of carbon monoxide emission based on remote sensing data
 ocean study; global ocean surface temperature distributions over the year
 monitoring of terrestrial ecosystems; forestry, forest pathology, forest resources
 revealing and estimation of wildfire damage;
 forest certification; lumbering monitoring; reforestation estimation, etc.carbon budget estimation
 some examples of data obtained during aerospace monitoring of oil and gas industry units
 detecting areas with intensive anthropogenic load
 Moscow State University geoportal http://www.geogr.msu.ru:8082/api/index.html. Over 20 of such
Russian centres have now joined in the Consortium of University Geoportals (UNIGEO).
 Institute of Space Research RAS ( http://smiswww.iki.rssi.ru/ ) reception of open remote sensing data,
such as Terra/Aqua MODIS, and thematic processing of this and other imagery. own receiving station for
MODIS.
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Fig. Areas of space information reception by «aerocosmos» ground stations (Bondur)
Ground-based remote sensing observations of greenhouse gases and other relevant trace gases
• NDACC: Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change – since 1991 (1980s)
• TCCON: Total Carbon Column Observing network – since 2009 (2004)
Fig. TCCON network
6.1.3 LABORATORY
TEXT-TO-BE-ADDED
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instrument development & testing
laboratory chamber tests
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6.3 MODELS
6.3.1 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
6.3.1.1 LAND-SURFACE MODELLING
One of the rising topics in the international debate on land-atmosphere interactions in relation to
global change is the Earth system modeling (ESM) and the ability of the current modeling tools to
represent the basic Earth system processes. ESMs consist of the physical concervation principles and
more empirical process description of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and the terrestrial and
marine biospheres. These models are the best tools for analysing the effect of different environmental
changes on future climate or for studying the role of whole processes in the Earth System. These types
of analysis and prediction of the future change are especially important in the high latitudes of Arctic,
where climate change is proceeding fastest and where near-surface warming has been about twice the
global average during the recent decades.
There has been criticism that the processes, and hence parameterization, in the Earth System
Models (ESMs) are based on insufficient knowledge of physical, chemical and biological mechanisms
involved in the climate system and the resolution of known processes is insufficient. One of the
fundamental processes in this regard is photosynthesis: plant stomata, by controlling the rate of
evaporation from the photosynthetic organs, have been shown to play a key role in the Earth System
for 400 million years (Berry et al., 2010). Global scale modeling of land-atmosphere interactions using
ESMs provides a way to explore the influence of spatial and temporal variation in the activities of soil
and vegetation on climate. We lack, however, ways to forward the necessary process understanding
effectively to the ESMs and to link all this to the decision making process. While not unusual, this kind
of failure to connect different disciplines together introduces significant uncertainties in modeling
current and future climate change, and ultimately to inform policy decisions.
Evaluation of process-models to improve GCM parameterizations
One of the main PEEX modelling activity is to evaluate process-models of chemistry-biotaatmosphere interactions in Pan Eurasian region and to improve GCM parameterizations. PEEX scientific
plan is designed to serve a research chain that aims to advance our understanding of climate and air
quality through a series of connected activities beginning at the molecular scale and extending to the
regional and global scale. Past variations in climate in Pan Eurasian regions and corresponding forcing
agents would be revealed by analysis of firn and ice cores in glaciers and ice sheets.
A combination of direct and inverse modeling will be applied to diagnosing, designing, monitoring,
and forecasting of air pollution in Siberia and Eurasia (Penenko et al., 2012). Regional models coupled
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with the global one by means of orthogonal decomposition methods allow one to correctly introduce
data about the global processes onto the regional level where environmental quality control strategies
are typically implemented (Baklanov et al., 2008).
Proceeding from the above mentioned limitations, a new concept and methodology considering the
concept of ’one-atmosphere’ as two-way interacted meteorological and chemical processes is
suggested (Baklanov et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2012). The atmospheric chemistry transport (ACT)
models should include not only health-effecting pollutants (air quality components) but also greenhouse gases and aerosols effecting climate, meteorological processes, etc. Such the concept requests a
strategy of new generation integrated chemistry-climate modelling systems for predicting atmospheric
composition, meteorology and climate change. The on-line integration of meteorological/climate
models and atmospheric aerosol and chemical transport models gives a possibility to utilise all
meteorological 3D fields at each time step and to consider feedbacks of air pollution (e.g. aerosols) on
meteorological processes and climate forcing, and further on the chemical composition (as a chain of
dependent processes). This very promising way for future atmospheric simulation systems (as a part of
and a step to Earth Modelling Systems) will be considered in PEEX. It will lead to a new generation of
models for climatic, meteorological, environmental and chemical weather forecasting (EuMetChem,
2012: www.eumetchem.info).
A combination of direct and inverse modeling will be applied to diagnosing, designing, monitoring,
and forecasting of air pollution in Siberia and Eurasia (Penenko et al., 2012). Regional models coupled
with the global one by means of orthogonal decomposition methods allow one to correctly introduce
data about the global processes onto the regional level where environmental quality control strategies
are typically implemented (Baklanov et al., 2008).
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Fig. PEEX interests: Interactions and feedbacks between boreal forests, aerosols and climate, TOOLS:
Process models and ESMs. NEEDS: Long term / multi annual, co-located) observations of vegetation
and atmosphere properties across Eurasia
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LARGE SCALE MODELS- CAPABILITY; EXAMPLES FROM UK:
GCMs (HadGEM3), LSMs (JULES), Chemistry + aerosol: HadGEM3+UKCA, ESMs (HadGEM3-ES, FAMOUS,
modelling fire in the Earth System), Atmospheric and oceanic global circulation models (GCMs)
SCIENCE QUESTIONS, REQUESTED INTEGRATED ESM APPROACH
• How can we describe BVOC emission responses to of air chemistry related impacts (CO2 impact, ozone
induction, nitrogen dependency) mechanistically considering the phenological and physiological state of the
plant as well as immediate climatic conditions?
• How can we quantify the deposition of air pollutants (i.e. ozone) into the vegetation and how can we
distinguish explicitly between stomatal- and non-stomatal deposition (incl. chemical deposition by BVOC
emission, ozone impact on stomata)?
Here we separate models that aim to simulate and predict the purely physical aspects of the Earth
system and aim to improve understanding of the bio-geochemical cycles in the PEEX domain, and
beyond. The environmental change in the PEEX region implies that, from the point-of-view of
atmospheric flow, the lower boundary condition is changing. This is important for applications with
immediate relevance for society, such as numerical weather prediction. The PEEX infrastructure will
provide a unique view to the physical properties of the Earth surface which can be used to improve
simulation and prediction models. This will directly benefit citizens of the New North in terms of better
early warning of hazardous events, for instance. On longer time-scales, simulations models of the bio-
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geochemical cycles in the PEEX domain absolutely need support from the new infra-structure to better
measure and quantify soil and vegetation properties.
In the most basic setup, the atmospheric and oceanic global circulation models (GCMs) are
connected to each other, sharing e.g. fluxes of momentum, water vapour and CO2. Traditionally, the
land compartment has been an integral part of the atmospheric model, but in most modern ESMs the
land model has been clearly separated. In most cases, the GCMs are complemented by other
additional sub models covering for example atmospheric chemistry and aerosols, biogeochemistry or
dynamic vegetation. Although the models can communicate also directly with each other, usually a
separate coupler is used as an interface between different sub models.
Fig. Regional climate modeling: Relative changes of a runoff (Ky2050) based on the CMIP3 ensemble at
the middle of XXI century.
PEEX MODELING ACTIVITY
 A framework approach, where model structures are built and can be implemented on a national
modelling level
 An ensemble approach with the integration of modelling results from different models/countries
etc.
 A new generation of modelling systems for PEEX, considering the chain of interactions and
feedback (ref. FP7-EU-EUCAARI-project, “EUCAARI-arrow”)
 A hierarchy of models; analysing scenarios; inverse modelling; modelling based on measurement
needs and processes
 Model validation by remote sensing data to understand processes, e.g., emissions and fluxes with
top-down modelling
 Measurement data to be used for validation of satellite data for, e.g., GHGs, NO2, O3, aerosol
 Geophysical/chemical model validation with experiments at various spatial and temporal scales
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Assimilation of data by models
6.3.1.2. OCEAN
The PEEX research will be based on (a) new and existing in situ observations from the Arctic Ocean; (b)
remote sensing observations on the ocean surface, sea ice type, concentration, extent, thickness,
albedo, surface temperature, as well as snow on sea ice; (c) atmospheric, ocean, and sea ice
reanalyses, (d) experiments applying process models, operational models, as well as regional and
global climate models. Considering new observations in the Arctic Ocean, the most important ones will
be those made at drifting ice stations and research cruises, as well as by moorings, drifting buoys,
under-ice gliders, and (manned and unmanned) research aircraft.
6.3.2 MODELLING SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Socio-economic development of the region depends upon a number of global and macro-economic
processes such as future development of the world’s energy production and consumption, the national
and global demand on natural resources, specifics of the national policies in developments of northern
territories, or policies with respect to small ethnic communities. Expected climate changes will play a
substantial role in the overall socio-economic predictions and assessments. The post-Soviet period of
dynamics of the regions was characterized by many negative social tendencies and processes like
substantial migration of population from the northern regions, decline of thousands of taiga
settlements due to the collapse of the soviet forest industry, destruction of transport connections,
substantial worsening of social services like medicine and education, supply of first-necessity goods
etc., particularly in remote territories.
The crucial prerequisite of civilized socio-economic development of the region, particularly in high
latitudes, is transition to sustainable development aiming at creation of acceptable standards of
human life and maintenance of environment and regional stability of the biosphere. In Russia, this
transition is declared as a background of national and regional policies of natural resources
management. However, the reality is far from such declarations. The ecological and environmental
situation in large regions of Northern Eurasia should be characterized as the ongoing severe ecological
crisis initiated by unregulated anthropogenic pressure on nature and explosive increase of production
and transport of natural resources, mostly fossil fuel. All together, this results in the decreasing quality
of major components of environment – air, water, soil, and vegetation,- and generates many risks. The
region is one of the most vulnerable regions of the globe.
Taken complexity and uncertain character of predictions of the socio-economic development of the
region, PEEX will widely use with this respect integrated modeling as a major modeling tool. Integrated
modeling combines consideration of problems of different nature – economic, ecological and social.
One of the planned ways is use of integrated clusters like IIASA ESM Integrated Modeling Cluster
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(http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/EcosystemsServicesandManagement/
Integrated-Model-Approach.en.html). The cluster integrates different models – economic model
GLOBIOM (Havlik et al., 2011), forest specialized model G4M (Rametsteiner et al., 2007), agricultural
model EPIC (Izaurradle et al., 2006) and others, which are combined in a common modeling
framework. The cluster could be modified and adapted for the region’s conditions and problems.
The another promising approach deals with the application of combining agent-based and stock-flow
modeling approaches in a participative analysis of the integrated land system that allows to illustrate
various paradigms in studying the complexity of ecological-social systems. In essence, an agent-based
model is a system designing a collection of individual, heterogeneous decision-makers referred to as
agents, who consider their options in their respective environment to form decisions on the basis of a
pre-defined set of rules working in an environment of on internal and external factors and different
scenarios. Finally, taking different perspectives of different stakeholders or decision-makers, other
techniques of socio-economic modeling will be examined, particularly using real options modeling for
investigating the impact of uncertainty emerging from a lack of information.
6.4 PEEX MEASUREMENT PROGRAMME AND STANDARDIZED DATA PRODUCTS
PEEX will produce extensive amount of different type of research and knowledge transfer material
such as measurement data, publications, method descriptions and modelling results. PEEX data
product plan will be built on (i) establishment of permanent PEEX platform incl. automatic data
submission directly from the measurement sites, data processing, quality control and conversion to
international user and storage communities (ii) harmonization of PEEX data products with the
international measurements systems and data formats and (iii) collaboration with the existing Arctic
and boreal monitoring programmes.
6.4.1 ESTABLISHMENT OF PERMANENT PEEX DATA PLATFORM
PEEX observations and interpretation should embrace the whole of Northern Eurasia and Arctic in
order to reflect the gradient from arctic tundra to boreal forests, mires, steppes, deserts, and
broadleaf forests (Kulmala et al MS). PEEX continuous atmospheric and ecosystem measurement
programme will developed in line with the on-going European Union research infrastructure
development on several domains: ACTRIS (aerosols…), ANAEE (terrestrial ecosystem research), ICOS
(global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas emissions), LIFEWATCH, and EXPEER (terrestrial ecosystem
research) (Kulmala et al. 2011). At the first phase the current on-going research activities in Northern
countries or in Europe can provide research collaboration like providing up-to-date results on relevant
research topics in the arctic regions or know-how, how to start the designing the next-generation
research infrastructures in a coherent manner. These type of arctic activities are the Nordic Center of
Excellences CRAICC (Cryosphere-atmosphere interactions in a changing Arctic climate) and DEFORST
(Interactions between climate change and the cryosphere) funded by Nordforsk.
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HUGE ARCHIVES OF GEOREFERENCED DATA
• Meteorological datasets, Modelled data (reanalyses, climatic and meteorological models outputs,
etc.), Remote sensing data (Landsat, MODIS, …)
NECESSITY IN COMPUTATIONAL AND INFORMATION SUPPORT OF LARGE SCALE (REGIONAL)
MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDIES, like LBA, NEESPI, MAIRS and SIRS
• Saving and effective usage of georeferenced data sets
• Inhomogeneous datasets fusion
• User friendly reliable analysis of large datasets
• Information environment supporting interaction of distributed multidisciplinary research teams
6.4.2 HARMONIZATION OF PEEX DATA PRODUCTS WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MEASUREMENTS
SYSTEMS
The organization of databases, data products and formats will be made in collaboration of ongoing European and European-USA activities. Most relevant projects in years 2013-20XX are to the ongoing EU-FP7-projects: FP7-ENVRI-project “Common Operations of Environmental Research
Infrastructures” in Europe a collaboration effort of the ESFRI Environment Cluster and to develops
common e-science components and services for their facilities and FP7-COOPEUS-project
“Transatlantic cooperation in the field of environmental research infrastructures” between Europe and
USA. The aim of these research infrastructure projects is the identification of next generation user
friendly data structures and formats. The key institute in European scale is Norwegian Institute for Air
research, NILU (Norway), where major part of the atmospheric relevant dataset/ products are
currently stored and distributed.
The data products and infrastructures development in environmental sector in in Europe are
currently performed by European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI). As a part of
building the European Union research area and to ensure Europe’s competitiveness in “frontier”
research EU is listing the European world class research infrastructures in the (ESFRI) roadmap. PEEX
data formats will follow these new European data product and database standards
Relevant aspects related to the development of PEEX data-infrastructure
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Common PEEX database to store and provide all measurement data; How to share data? Model validation
using data, e.g. AQMEII
Data distribution - open data access vs. IPR rights;
Procedures for data quality (standardization of instruments, methods, observations, data processing)
Determination of input data products for integrated models
Development of a calibration infrastructure for the inland water bodies - remote sensing
6.4.3 SYNERGY WITH THE EXISTING ARCTIC AND BOREAL MONITORING PROGRAMME
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A network of monitoring stations with the capacity to quantify those interactions between
neighbouring areas ranging from the Arctic and the Mediterranean to the Chinese Industrial areas and
the Asian steppes is needed. For example, apart from development of Russian stations in the PEEX
area a strong co-operation with surrounding research infrastructures in the model of ACTRIS network
needs to be established in order to obtain a global perspective of the emissions transport
transformation and ageing of pollutants incoming and exiting the PEEX area.
Fig.
EXAMPLES OF ONGOING INFRA/MEASUREMENT ACTIVITIES IN PEEX DOMAIN
ARCTIC (SVALBARD) AND SOUTH EAST EUROPE STATIONS (GREECE)
- linked to episodic long range transport of emissions (such as forest fires) from the “PEEX area of interest” to
the rest of the hemisphere.
PEEX and GAW / ACTRIS-I3 / FP7-REGPOT-2012-2013-1
- GAW-ACTRIS can transfer standardization protocols for aerosol measurements
- GAW community help in designing stations or upgrading sites with state-of-the-art aerosol measurements
- provide schools to educate young scientist and PhD students in aerosol science and technology
to obtain reliable and high quality data to understand our changing environment
FRENCH-SIBERIAN CENTER: 20 PARTNERS, 7 STRUCTURING COLLABORATIONS
- Greenhouse gas and aerosol precursors fluxes under changing climate, related to forest fires, wetland
emissions, permafrost degradation
- Foster monitoring of the environment in Siberia through an « observatory » approach
- Joint exploitation/access to existing or future infrastructures
- Share research practices and results more efficiently, Develop complementarity of measurements
- Variety of parameters, Variety of networks: from dense network of light sites to integrated supersites
- Intensive field campaigns for process studies, validation studies…
- Sustained funding strategies in Europe (relying on both EC and national level) and Russia
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- Integrate and reuse existing bilateral collaboration
EUROPEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH ALLIANCE (ECRA) / ECRA COLLABORATIVE PROGRAMMES
• Arctic Climate Stability and Change (Arctic ECRA) Coordinated by the AWI, DE, and the BCCR, NO
•
High Impact Events and Climate ChangeCoordinated by the NCAS, UK, the SMHI, SE and the DTU, DK
•
Sea Level and Climate Change Coordinated by the ENEA, IT and the KNMI, NL
• Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in collaboration with HyMex Coordinated by the CNR and the ENEA, IT
JOINT JAPANESE-RUSSIAN PROJECT FOR GREENHOUSE GAS MONITORING
A. AIRBORNE OBSERVATIONS OF GHGS IN SIBERIA
• F-R Airborne Extensive Regional Observations in SIBeria - YAK-AEROSIB Project POLARCAT & YAK-AERO
B. TOWER NETWORK OBSERVATIONS
• Japan–Russia Siberian Tall Tower Inland Observation Network (JR-STATION)
C. AEROSOLS
• AERONET & Lidar network Aerosibnet (aerosol optical depth)
RUSSIAN DRIFTING STATIONS “NORTH POLE – 41…”
•
Participants: Arctic and Antarctic Research Inst., Inst. of Oceanology RAS, Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg
University, Center for Environmental Chemistry, RPA “Typhoon” (Russia), AWI (Germany) ESRL NOAA (USA), NPI
(Norway)
• Meteorology /Oceanography /Hydrochemistry and greenhouse gases exchange /Dynamic and morphometry of sea
ice cover /Sea ice biology, plankton and benthos communities/Investigations of sediments in snow-ice cover
/Validation of satellite data
ONGOING RELEVANT PROGRAMS
• EMEP (: European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), HTAP, AMAP...
• Projects: ECLIPSE, SOGEA, POLARCAT, GAME, GHG-Nor, FLEXPOP, SatMonAir, SMOS...
• Methane: long term measurements and isotope studies at Zeppelin Observatory
7. PEEX SOCIETY DIMENSION
PEEX Society Dimension (F-3) integrates the outcomes of the Research agenda (F-1) and
Infrastrcture (F-2) and deliveres different types of scenarios on the effects of climate change and air
quality on human population, society, energy resources and capital flow. Based on the assessment on
vulnerability of Northern PanEurasian natural systems and societies to climate change and risk-analysis
on the natural hazards (floods, forest fires, droughts) PEEX will provide mitigation and adaptation
plans for sustainable land use, health and energy production. Reliable climate information for the
coming decades is crucial for the planning and adaptation for climate chance impacts on society. The
decision-makers need the future scenarios to make the adaptation strategies. PEEX will provide
improved knowledge and scenarios on climate phenomena, especially estimates on the type and
frequency of extreme events and possible nonlinear responses for past, present and future conditions
to provide enhanced climate information and climate prediction
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http://ccap.org/what-does-climate-resilience-look-like/
7.1 MITIGATION PLANS
Mitigation plans are designed towards a low-carbon society in PEEX domain and is focused on future
actions needed stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations from agriculture and forestry, energy
production and manufacturing. Stabilization plans of GHGs also includes new understanding and
design of waste management, transport corridors and infrastructures. For the GHG stabilization we
need to develop new technologies, management practices, urban planning and increase the use of
renewable energies (wind). Furthermore, the land use actions related to agriculture and forestry and
protection of ocean ecosystems are needed to protect the natural carbon sinks.
7.1.1 AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY
Agriculture - Food securityThe major part of the territory used for extensive agriculture in Eurasia is
located in its northern part (subregions of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan where the positive impact of
climate change is expected). Intensification of agriculture and implementation of efficient agriculture
technologies in these zones can multiply the outcome of the agriculture sector in the region.
Multiplication of the efficiency of agriculture, in combination with the operation of new Eurasian
transport infrastructures, will essentially raise food security in Eurasia (ref. IIASA).
Forestry Important topics of studies of forestry are the following: negative institutional shifts in
Russian forestry in the 1990–2000s and their impact on forestry managing and adaptation to natural
change (Kuzminov, 2011); forecast of the frequency of forest fires due to the climate change and with
account of negative institutional shifts.
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Subsidiary trade
http://cdn.c.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000lB2Lj9RHemk/s/900/russia-arctic-gazprom-nenets-ru154601.jpg
Northern reindeer husbandry along with sea and river fishery is one of the main branches of
the traditional north economy and the main occupation of the nomadic Northern people. This is a
source of sustainability of the northern indigenous societies. The number of wild and domestic
reindeer has dramatically declined in post-soviet period (Gray 2000, Hiyama and Inoue, 2010,
Litvinenko 2013). Field studies in North Yakutiya revealed that availability of drinking water (stored as
ice in winter), availability of bio-fuels (mainly wood), pasture and land productivity, and patterns of
animal reproduction and hunting are changing (Hiyama and Inoue, 2010). The migration routes of wild
reindeer are changing in relation to new environmental conditions. MODIS satellite data showed that
reindeer move along rivers and through zones of better vegetation, while avoiding increasingly
common forest fires. Interviews with indigenous people, keepers of domestic reindeer, revealed that
current climate change has not severely damaged their operations and they have been able to
successfully adapt to changes in climate, while, on the contrary, they were severely impacted by social
changes following the collapse of the Soviet Union (http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/rihn_e/project/C07.html).
7.1.2 ENERGY PRODUCTION AND MANUFACTURING
Energy efficiency
Raising energy efficiency implies saving scarce energy resources, reducing the pressure on the
environment, supporting the technology transfer, and promoting technological innovations. The
implementation platform may employ modifications of cooperation and corporate instruments of the
post Kyoto developments (ref. IIASA).

renewable energies
Coordination in management of water resources and ecosystem services
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Coordination in management of water resources and ecosystem services is highly important for both
maintaining economic growth and preventing destabilization of the environment. Northern Eurasia
accumulates tremendous water resources and ecosystem services (particularly the biggest over the
globe boreal forests - Siberian taiga) which operate as important components of the global biotic
regulation mechanism and very likely will be under substantial risk (northern Siberia alone contains in
frozen ground up to 900 Pg C; warming and thawing of permafrost may provide destructive impacts on
the Earth System, surviving of boreal forests, life of many smaller peoples, and have grave
consequences on national and global economies). Understanding of systems interactions between
current and future hydrological regimes, dynamics of permafrost and functioning the arctic and boreal
ecosystems is a corner stone of satisfactory socio-economic developments of huge territories. Working
out balanced recommendations for transition to sustainable management of water resources and
ecosystems in Eurasia has an extraordinary meaning for strategic planning and will be an innovative
research task of systems analysis (ref. IIASA).
7.1.3 WASTE MANAGEMENT
7.1.5 BUILT STRUCTURES AND URBAN PLANNING
Fig.
Example
of
Moscow megacity surroundings.(ELANSKY)
CO2
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Present-day Russian territorial and urban planning almost does not take into account the results of
research works and forecasts of possible future natural change and hazards. There is no Master-Plan of
spatial development of Russia. At the same time there is profound geographic information of this kind
that could be incorporated into interdisciplinary studies. PEEX program should become a source of
reliable data on zoning of the territory Arctic and boreal Pan-Eurasian region according to 40-years
forecast.
Due to the large extent of permafrost covered areas in the Eurasian north, there are numerous
infrastructural issues related to possible changes in the thickness and temperature of the frozen part
of subsurface, and thus its mechanical soil properties. In the case of expected significant climatic
warming the change in the cryosphere is probably one of the most dramatic issues affecting the
infrastructure in the Eurasian north, as the infrastructure is literally standing on permafrost. Moreover,
an interesting coupling may be related to the decreasing ice-cover of the Arctic Ocean resulting to
increased humidity and precipitation on the continent and further thickening and longer duration of
annual snow cover. Snow is a good thermal insulator and influences the average ground surface
temperature, thus playing a potentially important role in speeding up the thawing of permafrost.
Future risk of increased damage to local infrastructure, such as buildings and roads, can cause
significant social problems and cause pressure on local economy. Thawing permafrost is structurally
weak and places variety of infrastructure at risk, for example buildings, roads, pipelines, railways, etc.
Infrastructure failure can have dramatic environmental consequences, as seen in the 1994 breakdown
of the pipeline to the Vozei oilfield in Northern Russia, which resulted in a spill of 160,000 tons of oil,
the world’s largest terrestrial oil spill (UNEP 2013). Maintainance and repair costs, caused by
permafrost thaw and degradation, on infrastructure in Northern Eurasia has recently increased and
will most probably increase faster in the future. This is especially prominent problem in discontinuous
permafrost regions where even small changes in permafrost temperature can cause significant damage
to infrastructure. Most settlements in permafrost zones are located on the coast, where strong erosion
place structures and roads at risk. After the damage to the infrastructure, the local residents and
indigenous communities are forced to relocate that can cause changes and disappearances of local
societies, cultures and traditions (UNEP 2013).
Eurasian transport corridors
Development of new Eurasian transport corridors (across land and Northern Sea Route) can initiate
rapid growth in commodity circulation in the region, raise employment, promote implementation of
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technological innovations in the transport and infrastructure sectors, and lead to economic and social
approachment. An important research task will be assessment of energy efficiency and socioecological consequences of the new transport corridors and optimization of the future transport flows
at
both
the
Eurasian
and
sub-regional
scales
(ref.
IIASA)
BUILD STRUCTURES - PERMAFROST MELTING AND LANDSLIDE

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Numerous deformations of the pipe-lines and constructions
Technogenic influence upon the frozen ground - the major factor of industrial risks in cryolithozone
Deformations of the roads and railroads (in Russia, Mongolia and China)
Distribution of ions in soil water decreases from young to ancient landslides. Shearing surfaces of landslides
are always more saline than landslides bodies. Chemical composition of ground water on landslide-affected
slopes showed that they were really generated on the salted marine sediments, which outcropped due to
landslide event
Cryogenic landsliding leads to spatial and temporal changes of grasses and willow vegetation
The saline water is accumulated in local depressions of the permafrost table and forms highly saline lenses
of ground water called ‘salt traps’
Landslide slopes of different age generations are indicators of the depth of saline sediments: young
landslide-affected slopes - saline sediments are near the surface, ancient landslide-affected slopes - saline
sediments are on depth from 2 to 5 m.
7.1.6 GEOENGINEERING
Geoengineering can be an option in mitigation strategies for climate change. Certain geoengineering
technologies can be developed and used to countervail the change. Before any real-time experiences it
is important to quantify and analyse the impact of their implementation on sensitive Arctic ecosystems
by modelled scenario studies. Under PEEX research domain, the future research would aim to
encompass new things like ice sheet – ocean interaction simulation. Also, the sea ice models can be
used to study deliberate modification by shipping on early season ice cover, and to do ESM simulations
of albedo type modification of land surface in the Eurasian Arctic region. These modeling efforts can
provide important knowledge on which to base more detailed future studies.
7.1.7 PROTECTING THE NATURAL CARBON SINKS
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NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, ECOLOGICAL SAFETY AND NEW ECOLOGICAL STANDARDS OF
LIFE

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

Natural resources management and ecological safety in the Arctic region
Scientific basis of the natural and anthropogenic impact assessment on the health of population
Biodiversity and the ecosystem services
Resource management of the Russian coastal zones
7.1.8 CLIMATE POLICY MAKING
PEEX project goal is to provide tools for scientists to produce results that can diminish the
uncertainty in scientific knowledge that policy makers are utilizing in policymaking process in PEEX
region. Also, PEEX project improves the tools that scientist have in communication with policy
makers.Scientific uncertainty is still the prevailing fact regarding the research domain of PEEX. As our
knowledge on PEEX science domain increases, perceptions of the types and levels of scientific
uncertainty may increase or decrease. Assessment of risk and uncertainty in PEEX science domain
therefore involves a degree of subjective judgment that PEEX scientists, in multidisciplinary way, try to
clarify and provide for policy makers to be used in successful climate policy making. Different policy
sectors and scientific disciplines will be invited to join the PEEX project in order to be able to respond
to the challenges that require multidisciplinary approach.
7.1.8.1 GLOBAL SCALE
PEEX will contribute to solving major global challenges and contribute significantly to
socioeconomic issues related to global sustainability and ecosystem-atmosphere-society interactions:
examples include the interactions between climate change and the terrestrial, coastal, and marine
environment and agriculture, forestry, energy consumption, urban planning, and extreme events.
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Among the main themes will be sustainable managed environments and the mixed anthropogenic
(sulphur and nitrogen) and biogenic (BVOCs) input to cloud and aerosol processes. PEEX will answer to
the needs of policy-makers in the region by producing assessments and policy briefs of relevant topics
and by maintaining an open dialogue with stakeholders and policy-makers: PEEX will create
communication channels internationally and within each individual country and ensure that the new
scientific understanding will be available and ready to use at policy level. Internationally, PEEX will
work closely with influential organisations such as the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
(IPCC), the International Council for Science (ICSU) Global Environmental Change (GEC) programmes
(IGBP, DIVERSITAS, WCRP, IHDP), and the emerging international global sustainability initiative Future
Earth.Future Earth is being developed by ICSU, the United Nations, the International Social Science
Council (ISSC), and the Belmont Forum, and it wil merge most of the ICSU GEC programmes over the
next few years and become a major player in the international global change research field. The key
concept in Future Earth science is co-design of research plans with stakeholders, scientists, and
funders together to produce knowledge necessary for societies to cope with global change and to
transition to sustainable economies and practices.
PEEX is endorsed by the IGBP core project iLEAPS (Integrated Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere
Processes Study) that has its international project office in Helsinki and daily contacts with PEEX
leaders. iLEAPS will bring visibility especially to the ecosystem-atmosphere interactions research within
PEEX and, as part of IGBP and the emerging Future Earth, iLEAPS can act as one channel for PEEX
results to reach the policy level in different PEEX countries. Via iLEAPS, PEEX is linked to the Future
Earth initiative that will re-organise ICSU’s GEC programmes to act in an integrated way towards global
sustainability research: this requires the integration of social science and economics with natural
sciences at all levels of research, from planning the research to implementing it and interpreting the
results. Finding the best way to get these different communities to work together is challenging, but
PEEX is well equipped to take the first steps in the Pan-Eurasian region on the road to solving the
equation of one Earth and a growing human population
7.1.8.2 REGIONAL SCALE
In each country, scientists have their own channels through which to reach out to policy-makers.
PEEX engages the local scientific leaders and, with their experience, creates the multiple pathways
necessary for an effective science-policy dialogue: in Finland, PEEX has direct links with the National
Climate Panel; to the Forum of Environmental Information (www.ymparistotiedonfoorumi.fi) that
produces scientific information for policy-making; and to Future Earth, the international initiative on
global sustainability led by ICSU, ISSC, and UN (www.icsu.org/future-earth);
Russian / China?
PEEX SOCIETY DIMENSION – MAIN FOCUS ON REGIONAL SCALE
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Social consequences of the climate change
To predict extreme weather events & extensive forest fires
How do the sea ice extent variations affect regional climate, with the focus on extreme weather
conditions
Sustainable forest management - changes in evaporation
Scenarios on land use changes in Eurasia and their impact on the GHG exchange and aerosol
precursor emissions
What natural/anthropogenic hazards do we face from forest fires and radioactive pollution
episodes
Emissions of particles, sulfate and nitrogen oxides, CO2, POPs, heavy metals, etc. from industry, and
human exposure to air pollutant
7.2 ADAPATION PLAN AND FORESEEN RISKS
7.2 SERVICES TO DIFFERENT STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIETY
7.2.1 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR TIMELY MITIGATION
Complex mitigation and adaptation strategies should be worked out for federal, regional and
local authorities in addition to the specific plans in various branches of economy. It would be rather
important to explore the interaction between environmental change and post-Soviet transformation of
natural resource utilization in North Eurasia to assess the complexity of their socio-ecological
consequences at regional and local levels. The population dynamics in regions of Northern Russia in
1990–2012 and the linkage between intra-regional differences in population dynamics and spatial
transformation of natural resources utilization and ethnic breakdown of the population should be
clarified. Mechanisms of interaction between regional environmental change and post-Soviet
transformation of natural resources utilization at both regional and local levels are of special
importance in this sense (Litvinenko, 2012). The local peoples’ (indigenous people and newly arrived
people) adaptation and response to both environmental and economic changes would improve
evaluation of socio-ecological fragility and vulnerability. It would be desirable to develop an “early
warning system” for timely mitigation of negative socio-ecological effects of both environmental and
natural resources change. Such system would be useful for federal, regional and local authorities, as
well as for local communities.
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Fig. Web-GIS platform to support multidisciplinary Earth/Environmental Sciences regional study Example of
user interface (Merra data, Maximal temperature, 850mb, June 1990, raster NCEP2, contour Evgeny Gordov
SCERT/IMCES SB RAS
An integrated land information system (ilis) for PEEX domain
Taken into account the diversity and integrated character of research which intends to be done by
PEEX, it is relevant to have a solid georeferenced basis which would contain all available accumulated
information about landscapes, terrestrial ecosystems, water bodies, biological productivity of the
biosphere and its interaction with the lower troposphere etc. Such a base will be realized in form of an
Integrated Land Information System (ILIS) for Northern Eurasia (Schepachenko et al. 2010) as a multilayer GIS with corresponding attributive databases. The georeferenced background of the ILIS is
represented by a hybrid land cover which is developed by using multi-sensor remote sensing concept
and all available ground information (forest and land state accounts, monitoring of disturbances,
verified data of official statistics, measurements in situ etc.).The basic resolution of the ILIS is 1 km2.
Finer resolution could be used for regions with rapid change of land cover. Initial version of the ILIS will
be developed by state for 2011. The ILIS is planned to be used: (1) for introduction of a unified system
of classification and quantification of ecosystems and landscapes; (2) as a benchmark for tracing the
dynamics of land-use land cover; (3) for empirical assessment of fluxes of an interest (CO2, CH4, VOC,
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NOx, aerosols etc.); (4) for use in different models and for models’ validation; (5) for understanding of
gradients for upscaling of “point” data.
8. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER
8.1 FUTURE CAPACITY BUILDING
8.1.2 PEEX EDUCATIONAL AND STUDENT EXCHANGE PROGRAMME
Research of climate change and air quality as well as development of adaptation and mitigation
plans requires combination of mastering core expertize (from master to Ph.D. level), multidisciplinary
(Ph.D. level) and possession of supplementing soft skills (Ph.D. post doc to professor level). The PEEX
Education program will engage Ph.D. students, post docs, technical staff and experts in knowledge
transfer both by horizontal knowledge transfer during courses held by the world experts in different
fields of science as well as lateral cross disciplinary training by peers. The doctoral students involved in
PEEX are enrolled in local and national doctoral programmes involved in the project.
PEEX education plan includes collaboration by opening already existing courses at PEEX institutes
for PEEX students. The courses held regularly at the other universities can be included into the
curriculum of individual students at the PEEX institutes. Courses can also be tailored to share special
expertise and fit the needs of an institute e.g. an institute specialized in in-situ observations can
arrange for satellite observation training from another institute. The education also targets on peer to
peer knowledge transfer trough expert and professor exchange and interdisciplinary workshops
focusing on the PEEX scientific questions. Fig. demonstrates the activities in PEEX education.
Fig. PEEX knowledge transfer is horizontal
transfer by teaching including traditional
lecture courses, tailored expertize courses, elearning remote courses visiting students.
Lateral knowledge transfer includes workshops
and staff and student exchange including MSc
and
PhD
students,
postdocs,
senior
researchers, professors, and technical staff.
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Courses with specialist lectures and tackling key research questions transfer knowledge from
professors to students, and also among the professors and experts in the different PEEX fields of
science that cover many topics and promote fresh views on the complex multidisciplinary research
questions.
PEEX institutes possess world leading expertize on climate change in the arctic and boreal regions
and the knowledge transfer facilitates peer support and buildup of expert network of Pan-Eurasian
experts. Training of soft and supporting skills is part of the knowledge transfer program. The student
exchange program facilitates cross discipline collaboration and promotes mobility within Eurasia,
specifically nations within the Arctic and boreal region: North Europe, Russia and China.
PEEX EDUCATION AND TRAINING: EXAMPLES OF GROUPS AND AIMS
Secondary school teachers and schoolars To increase the awareness of Public
Master students
To educate next generation of scientists in PEEX domain
PhD students,
Young scientists
Technical experts retraining Maintenance of infrastructure
Education of potential business applicators Commercial exploitation of PEEX outcomes
Data operators
To meet data standards
Senior scientist
To enforce interdisciplinary understanding
Stakeholders
To disseminate PEEX scientific outcomes
Economy sectors
To disseminate specific outcomes on mitigation / adaptation
General public
Regional awareness on PEEX observation system
General awareness about Arctic climate change
Metadata of image archives, already established by UNIGEO members, are being openly available, to
establish ways for exchange of the data for scientific and educational use.


TEXT-TO-BE-ADDED on GENDER BALANCE - structuring the gender balance
TEXT-TO-BE-ADDED attention to the MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF THE TRAINING / The requirements of the
training programmes and degrees obtained therein comply with the legislation of each participating
country
8.2 STRUCTURING FUTURE RESEARCH AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES
8.2.2 TOWARDS A NEW, INTEGRATED EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH COMMUNITY
PEEX will have a major input in Earth system research in Pan-Eurasia on many levels and, as a
bottom-up initiative, it has engaged a large international scientific community already in the planning
phase. PEEX will also add to the building of new, integrated Earth system research community in the
Pan-Eurasian region by opening its research and modelling infrastructure and inviting international
partners and organisations to share in its development and use. PEEX will be a major factor integrating
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the socioeconomic and natural science communities to working together towards solving the major
challenges influencing the wellbeing of humans, societies, and ecosystems in the PEEX region.
8.2.2 RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURES
PEEX will engage the larger international scientific communities also by collaborating with, utilising,
and advancing major observation infrastructures such as the SMEAR, ICOS, ACTRIS, and ANAEE
networks in addition to building its own in the Pan-Eurasian region. PEEX will promote standard
methods and best practices in creating long-term, comprehensive, multidisciplinary observation data
sets and coordinate model and data comparisons and development; PEEX will also strengthen the
international scientific community via an extensive capacity building programme.
8.3 RISING THE AWARENESS OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLOBAL CHANGE TO SOCIETY
text-to-be-added
 consumer behavior
 TBD
capacities for Europe, Russia and China.
Fig. In Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Buryatia the main source of emission by the traditional land use is firewood
using (pot Kasimov , Bityukova)
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DOCUMENT STATUS SHEET
LEAD EDITORs
COMMENTS /
RESEARCH
TOPICS
TO
BEINCLUDED
/ TEXT
RECEIVED
FROM
FUNCTION
Executive Officer
Science Officer
NAME AND INSTITUTE; contributed topic
Dr. Hanna K. Lappalainen, Univ.Helsinki ATM /FMI
texts VERSION 0.3 on: short summary, executive summary, introduction,
infrastructure, knowledge-transfer / v.0.4: update of v.0.3 texts
Adjunct Prof. Tuukka Petäjä, Univ.Helsinki ATM
EDITORIAL WORK IN PROCESS…
VERSION 0.3
 Prof.Dmitri Moiseev, Univ.Helsinki ATM: text on precipitation
(13.2.2013)
 Prof. Evgeny Gordov, Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and
Ecological Systems SB RAS; heliogeophysical factors on
environmental change, regional and global climate changes
(21.2.2013)
 Prof. Yu.M. Timofeyev: Physics Faculty Saint-Petersburg State
University: main lines of our investigations relevant ro PEEX / the list
of our publications (2008-2013) /list of the equipment (20.2.2013)
 Prof. Nikolai Elansky Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS
et al.; Atmospheric gases, aerosols ‐ Black carbon (18.2.2013)
 Dr.Olga Popovicheva,Dept. Microelectronics MSU. Proposal on obs.
aerosols ‐ black carbon monitoring (13.2.)
 Dr. Olga Tutbalina, MSU: Status and dynamics of northern treeline in
Russia (remote sensing) / IPY BENEFITS project
 Dr. K. Eleftheriadis : Proposal on obs. aerosols ‐ black carbon
monitoring
 Dr. Tatyana Moiseenko, GEOKHI RAS; Water chemistry in small lakes
(22.2.2013)
 Dr. Irina Repina, A.M. Obukhov Inst (RAS) (13.2.2013)
 Dr. Geliy Zherebtsov, ISZC SB RAS
 Dr.Steffen Noe, Estonian University of Life Sciences: BVOCS +
Ecosystem changes (4.3.2013)
 Team MaxPlanck & FMI: E. Mikhailov, H. Su, Y. , Cheng, U. , U.
Pöschl, , M. O. Andreae, Ari Laaksonen 5.3.2013: aerosols
 Dr. Joni Kujansuu Univ.Helsinki ATM: text on PEEX social dimension
 Prof. Anatoly Shvidenko IIASA; A Eurasian Response to the Global
Crisis Proposal for an IIASA Flagship Project.(DD.2.2013)
 PHd Student Pavel Alekseychik: text on peat lands
 Prof.Ilmo Kukkonen, Univ.Helsinki text for permafrost (5.3.2013)
 Prof. Sergej Zilitinkevich, FMI; text on PBL (DD.02.2013)
 Dr.Hannele Korhonen, FMI EMS modelling – general comments
(6.3.2013)
 Dr.Jaana Bäck Univ.Helsinki Forest Ecology:text on biogeochem
cycles, terrestial biomes + general commenting (6.3.2013)
 Prof.Heikki Järvinen Univ.Helsinki 7.3.2013: text on upper
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atmosphere processes; EMS modelling
 Prof. Valery Kudeyarov 7.3.2013: permafrost & biochemical
processes
 Dr. Anatoly Kachur / Pacific Geographical Institute BEB RAS &
Nikolay Kozlovsky (Mr)PGI FEB RAS: station descriptions; Smychka
Scientific experimental station of PGI FEB RAS / North-East Research
station PGI FEB RAS. List of natural and anthropogenous hazards in
the Far Eastern Russia (11.3.2013)
 Dr. Dmitry Drozdov Earth Cryosphere Institute, SB RAS; permafrost
(19.2.2013)
 Prof. Alexander Baklanov Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI); text
on Siberian air quality & emissions, EMSs (13.3.2013)
 Profs S.Chalov/N.Kasimov /M.Lychagin /N.Alexeevsky /N Kosheleva,
MSU: Selenga-Baikal Drainage Basin (NN.2.2013)
 PRESENTATIONS OF PEEX-1 Helsinki meeting 2-4.Oct.2012;
1. Dr.Matishov:artificialradionuclides in marine ecosystems
2. Dr.Mareev: Electromagnetic weather/climate
3. Dr.Kudeyarov et al. The emissions of greenhouse gases from
permafrost at the climate change
4. Dr.Kasimov & Bityukova: Anthropogenic emissions in Northern
Eurasia
5. Prof. Dobrolyubov: sub-programs on environmental problems in
Russia
6. Prof. Gordov:Web-GIS platform
7. Prof. Melnkov et al. Cryosphere response to the climate change in
Russia
8. Dr. Chavlov:
9. Dr.
Vidale / dr,
Verhoef, High-resolution Global Climate
Modelling& Land surface processes: modelling and observations
10. Dr. Spracklen, Univ.Leeds: Interactions and feedbacks between
boreal forests, aerosols and climate
11. M. De Mazière, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy:
Groundbased remote sensing observations of greenhouse gases and other
relevant trace gases
12. Chubarova, Kislov Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov MSU: Regional
features of climate resources: observations, modelling,diagnosis and
forecast.
13. Su, Cheng,Pöschl MaxPlanck; To-be-included
14. Paris (LSCE CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France), .Belan (IAO-SB-RAS, Russia) ;
YAK-AEROSIB ; Airborne Extensive Regional Observations in Siberia
15. Team Winderlich,Xuguang Chi, M. O. Andreae, A.Panov
MaxPlanc/Jena:ZOTTO
16. Dr.Jung, AWI and co-chair of Arctic ECRA: Arctic ECRA
17. TEAM Matvienko et al. Inst. Atm Optics SB RAS; Measurement
systems for aerosol particles and greenhouse gases in Siberia
18. TEAMAsmi, Laurila FMI: TIKSI
19. Dr. Myhre NILU; Towards harmonised network for atmospheric
measurements(?)
 PRESENTATIONS OF PEEX-2 Moscow meeting 12.14.Feb.2013
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VERSION 0.4
 update version of PEEX short summary, vision: Kulmala, Suni Univ.
Helsinki (10.04.2013)
 updated version of . TERRESTIAL Biomes and geographical areas Bäck
Univ. Helsinki (12.04.2013)
 updated version of Aquatic ecosystems: Arctic and boreal lakes Bäck
Ojala Univ. Helsinki (12.04.2013)
 updated version of 5.1.1 Hydrological cycle BÄCK, Berninger, Ojalai Univ.
Helsinki 12.04.2013)
 updated version of 5.1.2 CARBON CYCLE VESALA, Bäck, Berninger,
Pumpanen, Ojala Suni Univ. Helsinki (12.04.2013)
 1st version of NITROGEN CYCLE PIHLATIE Univ. Helsinki (12.04.2013)
 1st version of PHOSPHORUS CYCLE KIELOAHO, Pihlatie Suni Univ.
Helsinki
 updated version of LAND ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURAL CHANGES J.Bäck;
BERNINGER Univ. Helsinki (12.04.2013)
 updated version of GREENHOUSE GASES /T. Vesala, M.Pihlatie Univ.
Helsinki ( (12.04.2013)
 K. Kauristie (FMI) comments on 5.3.3. HELIOGEOPHYSICAL FACTORS
(12.04.2013)
 J.Kujansuu Univ. Helsinki edited version of 7.2 natural hazards, 7.3 land
use changes (14.03.2013)
 L. Järvinen Univ. Helsinki edited version of 5.3.2 ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION – DYNAMICS (12.04.3013) + 5.3 MODELS
 1st version of Ocean, sea ice, and climate change T.Vihma (FMI)
(12.04.2013) + 5.4 Arcti Ocean + 6.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES IN THE
ARCTIC OCEAN
 text on 4.5 Urban regions by L. Järvi Univ. Helsinki ( (12.04.2013)
 1.version of PEEX Education Programme (1st version) by A. Lauri and T.
Ruuskanen Univ. Helsinki ( (12.04.2013)
 text on 5.2.2 Aerosols by VM Kerminen (12.04.2013)
 text on Biomass burning / Carbon cycle / GHG / land use / 4.7.2
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT by A. Shividenko
(IISA) (12.04.2013)
 general comments on the structure of SP and text on 7.1 climate policy
making + 7.2 international scientific community by T. Suni (12.04.2013)
 text / edited version on 5.3.1 BOUNDARY LAYER DYNAMICS T.Laurila
(FMI) (12.04.2013)
 PEEX-2 Moscow meeting Group -2 (Lihavainen et al.) List of BASIC
QUESTIONS Research Questions (large scale)
 Mitigation and Adapation, 7. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER updated version by
Lappalainen Univ. Helsinki
 Edited version of
Carbon Cycle + GHG, Monotoring of GHG
concentrations by T.Vesala Univ.Helsinki (16.04.2013)
 PEEX education and training: examples of groups and aims –
presentation Moscow meeting by
Dobrolyubov & Lappalainen
(16.04.2013)
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

Reviewed v0.3
ISSUED BY
DISTRIBUTION
PEEX Coordinator
Prof.
Excutive Officer
abtract - updated version by Kulmala, Suni,+ Kerminen 29.5.2013
research questions – categorization to level 1-2-3 quations by
Kerminen, Lappalainen 6.5.2013
 Society dimension - Olga Glezer, Tamara Litvinenko Institute of
Geography, RAS 4.5.2013
 PEEX Research Questions – edited version by Kerminen 7.may.2013
 updated version of Aerosols and Cloud by Kerminen 8.may.2013
 text on: Socio-economic vulnerability to environmental changes;
Modelling socio-economic development by Shvidenko IIASA 8.may.2013
Markku Kulmala, Univ.Helsinki ATM
Veli-Matti Kerminen , Univ.Helsinki ATM
Hanna K. Lappalainen
11. REFERENCES
A SEPARATE FILE->> to-be-checked
12. ACRONYM LIST
TO-BE-LISTED
13. ANNEXES
13.1 ANNEX: LIST OF CONTRBUTING INSTITUTES
Table. PARTICIPANTS PEEX-1 Meeting Helsinki 2-4.October.2012.
1.
2.
Pavel
Sergey
Vasilievich
Alekseychik
Anisimov
Pavel. Alekseychik@helsinki.fi
svan@borok.yar.ru
Birmili
University of Helsinki
Borok Geophysical Observatory, O.Yu.
Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth,
RAS
Finnish Meteorological Institute
University of Helsinki
Danish Meteorological Institute
V.E.Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics
SB, RAS
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research
3.
4.
5.
6.
Eija
Jaana
Alexander
Boris D.
Asmi
Bäck
Baklanov
Belan
7.
Wolfram
8.
Bondur
AEROCOSMOS
vgbondur@aerocosmos.info
9.
Valeriy
Grigoryevich
Alla
Borisova
iLEAPS
Alla.borisova@helsinki.fi
10.
11.
12.
13.
Magdalena
Sergey
Ya-fang
Natalia
Brus
Chalov
Cheng
Chubarova
University of Helsinki
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Lomonosov Moscow State University
magdalena.brus@helsinki.fi
hydroserg@mail.ru
yafang.cheng@gmail.com
chubarova@imp.kiae.ru
108
Eija.asmi@fmi.fi
Jaana.back@helsinki.fi
alb@dmi.dk
bbd@iao.ru
birmili@tropos.de
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14. Philippe
Ciais
CEA
philippe.ciais@cea.fr
15. Martine
16. Sergey
17. Nikolay
Filippovich
18. Igor
De Maziere
Dobrolyubov
Elansky
martine.demaziere@aeronomie.be
science@geogr.msu.ru
n.f.elansky@mail.ru
19. Alexander
Olegovich
20. Sophie
Gliko
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy
Lomonosov Moscow State University
A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric
Physics, RAS
Nansen Environmental and Remote
Sensing Center
Russian Academy of Sciences
GodinBeekmann
CNRS
sophie.godinbeekmann@latmos.ipsl.fr
21. Peng
Gongbing
cscieas@163.com
22. Evgueni
Gordov
23. HC
24. Anna-Maria
Hansson
Johansson
China Science Centre of IEAS, Institute of
Geography, CAS
Director
of
Siberian
Center
for
Environmental Research & Training
Stockholm University
European Commission
25. Thomas
26. Mikhail
Vsevolodovich
27. Anna
Jung
Kabanov
28. Nikolay
Sergeevich
29. Peter
30. Vladimir
Mikhailovich
31. Radovan
32. Andreas
33. Valery
34. Joni
35. Markku
36. Ari
Kasimov
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
Esau
igore@nersc.no
gliko@ifz.ru
gordov@scert.ru
HC@itm.su.se
AnnaMaria.JOHANSSON@ec.europa.eu
Thomas.Jung@awi.de
kabanov@imces.ru
Koltermann
Kotlyakov
Alfred Wegener Institute, ECRA
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and
Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch
Russian
State
Hydrometeorological
University
Faculty of Geography, Moscow State
University
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Institute of Geography, RAS
Krejčí
Krell
Kudeyarov
Kujansuu
Kulmala
Laaksonen
Stockholm University
ECRA
RAS
University of Helsinki
University of Helsinki
Finnish Meteorological Institute
radek@itm.su.se
andreas.krell@ecra-climate.eu
vnikolaevich2001@mail.ru
Joni.Kujansuu@helsinki.fi
markku.kulmala@helsinki.fi
Ari.Laaksonen@fmi.fi
Paolo
Hanna
Tuomas
Ke
Laj
Lappalainen
Laurila
Liao
laj@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr
hanna.k.lappalainen@helsinki.fi
Tuomas.laurila@fmi.fi
liao_ke@263.net
Aleksandr P
Marianne
Cathrine
Alexander
Pavel
Heikki
Evgeniy A.
Dmitry
Gennadjevich
Lisitzin
Lund
Lund Myhre
Makshtas
Malyshev
Mannila
Mareev
Matishov
CNRS
University of Helsinki
Finnish Meteorological Institute
China Science Centre of IEAS, Institute of
Geography, CAS
Institute of Oceanology
CICERO
NILU
AARI
Embassy of the Russian Federation
Academy of Finland
Institute of Applied Physics, RAS
Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, SSC RAS, MMBI ICSC
Kanukhina
109
anakan@rshu.ru
secretary@geogr.msu.ru
peter.koltermann@gmail.com
vladkot6@gmail.com
lisitzin@ocean.ru
m.t.lund@cicero.uio.no
cathrine.Lund.Myhre@nilu.no
maksh@aari.ru
rusembassy@co.inet.fi
evgeny.mareev@gmail.com
dmatishov@mail.ru
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49. Gennady
50. Roman
Matvienko
Mikhalyuk
51. Tatiana
Ivanovna
52. Robert
Iskandrovich
53. Steffen
Moiseenko
RAS
Institute of Atmospheric Optics SB RAS,
Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, SSC RAS
University of Tyumen
Nigmatulin
Institute of Oceanology, RAS
nigmar@ocean.ru
Noe
steffen.noe@emu.ee
54. Aleksey
Vasilyevich
55. Mikhail
56. Jean-Daniel
57. Tuukka
58. Irina
59. Alexander
Panov
Institute of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences, Estonian University of Life
Sciences
International Institute of Forests, Siberia
University of Helsinki
CEA
Univeristy of Helsinki
Mikhail.paramonov@helsinki.fi
jean-daniel.paris@lsce.ipsl.fr
tuukka.petaja@helsinki.fi
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
Katri
Susanna
Mikhail
Alexander
Vladimir
Mikko
Sergej P.
Rostedt
Sepponen
Shakhramanyan
Sharov
Shevchenko
Sipilä
Smyshlyaev
67.
68.
69.
70.
71.
72.
Sanna
Dominick
Hang
Jostein
Tanja
Yuliya Igorevna
Sorvari
Spracklen
Su
Sundet
Suni
Troitskaya
73.
74.
75.
76.
77.
Martine
Timo
Pier Luigi
Yrjö
Vito
Vanderstraeten
Vesala
Vidale
Viisanen
Vitale
78.
79.
80.
81.
Jan
Alfred
Mikko
Nina A.
Winderlich
Wiedensohler
Ylikangas
Zaytseva
82. Vladimir
Vladimitrovich
83. Sergei
Paramonov
Paris
Petäjä
Piippo
Pogoreltsev
Zhmur
Zilitinkevich
Russian
State
University
Hydrometeorological
Nordforsk
AEROCOSMOS
Russian foundation for Basic Research
Institute of Oceanology
University of Helsinki
Russian
State
Hydrometeorological
University
Finnish Meteorological Institute
University of Leeds
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
The Research Council of Norway
University of Helsinki
Institute of Applied Physics RAS /
University of Nizhny Novgorod
BELSPO - Belgian Science Policy Office
University of Helsinki
University of Reading / NERC
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate (ISAC)
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research
Academy of Finland
Division of Earth Sciences, Russian
Academy of Sciences
Directorate of the earth, Social and
Economic Sciences
Finnish Meteorological Institute
110
mgg@iao.ru
icd@ssc-ras.ru
moiseenko@geokhi.ru
alexey.v.panov@gmail.com
apogor@rshu.ru
susanna.sepponen@nordforsk.org
office@aerocosmos.info
a.sharov@rfbr.ru
vshevch@geo.sio.rssi.ru
mikko.sipila@helsinki.fi
smyshl@rshu.ru
sanna.sorvari@fmi.fi
dominick@env.leeds.ac.uk
h.su@mpic.de
jks@forskningsradet.no
tanja.suni@helsinki.fi
yuliya@hydro.appl.sci-nnov.ru
vdst@belspo.be
timo.vesala@helsinki.fi
p.l.vidale@reading.ac.uk
Yrjo.Viisanen@fmi.fi
v.vitale@isac.cnr.it
jan.winderlich@mpic.de
ali@tropos.de
nihaz@ras.ru
zhmur@rfbr.ru
sergej.zilitinkevich@fmi.fi
Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX)
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84. Vladimir
Vladimirovich
Zuev
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Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and
Ecological Systems
vvzuev@imces.ru
13.1 ANNEX - PEEX-2 Meeting Moscow, 12-14 FeB.2013
Foreign participants
1. Dr. Tuukka Petäjä, UH, Finland, tuukka.petaja@helsinki.fi
2. Prof. Markku Kulmala, UH, Finland, markku.kulmala@helsinki.fi
3. Dr. Heikki Lihavainen, FMI, Finland, heikki.lihavainen@fmi.fi
4. Dr. Hanna Katriina Lappalainen, hanna.lappalainen@fmi.fi
5. Dr. Joni Kujansuu, HU, Finland, joni.kujansuu@helsinki.fi
6. Prof. Yrjö Antero Viisanen, FMI, Finland, yrjo.viisanen@fmi.fi
7. Prof. Ari Johannes Laaksonen, FMI, Finland, <ari.laaksonen.fmi.fi>
8. Tuomas Laurila, FMI, Finland, tuomas.laurila@fmi.fi
9. IlmoTapio Kukkonen, HU, Finland, ilmo.kukkonen@gtk.fi
10. Veli-Matti Kerminen, HU, Finland, veli-matti.kerminen@helsinki.fi
11. Anna-Maria Johansson, EC, Sweden, Anna-Maria.Johansson@ec.europa.eu
12. Dr. Vitale Vito, ISAC, Italy, v.vitale@isac.it
13. Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, “Democritos”, Greece, elether@ipta.democritos.gr
14. Dr. Dmitri Moisseev, FMI, Finland, Dmitri.moisseev@helsinki.fi
15. Pavel Alekseychik, HU, Finland, pavel.alekseychik@helsinki.fi
16. Mikhail Sofiev, FMI, Finland, Mikhail.sofiev@fmi.fi
17. Dr. Evgeni Zapadinsky, HU, Finland, evgeni.zapadinsky@helsinki.fi
18. Eugene Mikhailov, St-Petersburg SU, Russia/Germany, Eugene.Mikhailov@paloma.spbu
19. Igor Ezau, Nansen Center, Norway, igor.ezau@nersc.no
20. Anatoly Shvidenko, IIASSA, Austria, shviden@iiasa.ac.at
21. Sergej Zilitinkevich, FMI/HU, Finland, sergej.zilitinkevich@fmi.fi
Russian delegates:
1. Sergey Anisimov, Obs. “Borok” (IFZ RAS), anisimov@borok.adm.yar.ru
2. Boris Belan, IOA SB RAS, bbd@iao.ru
3. Valery Bondur, AEROCOSMOS, RAS, vgbondur@aerocosmos.info
4. Alexander Gliko, Department of Earth Sciences, RAS, gliko@ifz.ru
5. George Golitsyn, Obukhov IAP, RAS, gsg@ifaran.ru
6. Evgeny Gordov, IMCES, SB RAS, gordov@scert.ru
7. Sergey Dobrolyubov, Lomonosov MSU, Geographical faculty, science@geogr.msu.ru
8. Dmitry Drozdov, IKZ SB RAS, ds_drozdov@mail.ru
9. Nikolay Elansky, Obukhov IAP, RAS, n.f.elansky@mail.ru
10. Geliy Zherebtsov, ISZC SB RAS, uzel@iszf.irk.ru>
11. Nina Zaytseva, Department of Earth Sciences, RAS, ninaz@ras.ru
12. Sergey Zimov, MGO, Roshydromet, aresh-08@mail.ru
13. Alexander Zinchenko, MGO, Roshydromet, aresh-08@mail.ru
14. Viktor Ivahov, TIG FEB RAS, pbaklanov@tig.dvo.ru
15. Nikolay Kasimov, Lomonosov MSU, Geographical faculty, secretary@geogr.msu.ru
16. Anatoliy Kachur, PIG FEB RAS, kachur@tig.dvo.ru Vladimir Kotlyakov, IG RAS, Department of Earth Sciences, RAS
direct@igras.ru
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17. Marina Kotlyakova, Roshydromet, marina@mcc.mecom.ru
18. Vladimir Krutikov, IMCES SB RAS, krutikov@imces.ru
19. Anna Krutikova, IKZ RAS, melnikov@ikz.ru
20. Valery Kudeyarov, IFXiBPP RAS, kudeyarov@issp.serpukhov.su
21. Nikolay Laverov, vice-president of RAS
22. Alexander Makshtas, AARI, Roshydromet
23. Evgeniy Mareev, IAP RAS, mareev@appl.sci-nnov.ru
24. Gennadiy Matvienko, IOA SB RAS, mgg@iao.ru
25. Tatjana Moiseenko, GEOKHI RAS, moisseenko.ti@gmail.com
26. Olga Popovicheva, INPh, Lomonosov MSU, olga.popovicheva@gmail.com
27. Alexander Reshetnikov, MGO, Roshydromet, aresh-08@mail.ru
28. Vladislav Rumyantsev, ILR, RAS, lake@limno.org.ru
29. Yuliya Troitskaya, IAP RAS, yuliyatrinity@mail.ru
30. Vladimir Shevchenko, Shirshov IO RAS, vshevch@ocean.ru
31. Andrey Shmakin, IG RAS, ashmakin@igras.ru
32. Nikolay Filatov, IWPN RAS nfilatov@rambler.ru
33. Prof. V.M. Kotlyakov (Chair of the Workshop Organizing Committee), geography@glas.apc.org
Abbreviations:
FMI – Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
UH – University of Helsinki, Finland
EC – European Commission
RAS – Russian Academy of Sciences
IAP – Institute of Atmospheric Physics
IG – Institute of Geography
IOA – Institute of Atmospheric Optics
ILR – Institute of Lake Research
TIG – Pacific Institute of Geography
IWPN – Institute of North Water Problems
AARI – Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
MGO – Main Geophysical Observatory
IO – Institute of Oceanologyg
112