The Future of Food
2015-2030
Four scenarios examining possible futures of the
food system in South Africa
Developing the
Transformative Scenarios
These four scenarios seek to tell a connected set of stories about what the
food system in South Africa might look like by 2030
Why were the scenarios
created?
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The four scenarios – called Transformative Scenarios – were created
to prompt a more coherent conversation about an effective food
system for South Africa.
The scenarios help to identify the choices organisations and
individuals can make now, to adapt to anticipated challenges or to
shape, together, the future of food in South Africa.
What are Transformative
Scenarios?
Transformative Scenarios are:
• about what could happen in the future, not about what will happen
(forecasts) or what should happen (policy recommendations).
• created by a multi-stakeholder group of actors whose assumptions
about current realities and future possibilities are likely to differ.
What they produce together is enriched by their debates.
• designed to be relevant, plausible and clear, and responsive to
current trends. But they are also challenging, a work of imagination
to stretch current thinking.
• intended to stimulate dialogue about what could be done
differently, both to adapt to an uncertain future and to transform it.
The Team
The scenarios were developed by a team of about 50 unlikely allies from
across the South African food industry, government, civil society and
academia, including:
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DAFF
AgriSA
Massmart
Oxfam
National Treasury
Pioneer Foods
Co-operative and Policy
Alternative Centre
WWF
Dept of Planning,
Monitoring and Evaluation
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Tongaat Hullett
Section 27
SANBI
Business Leadership South Africa
Ford Foundation
Ernst & Young
Wits
Pegasys
Pretoria University
Department of Health
Senwes
The project was convened by the Southern Africa Food Lab (SAFL) in partnership
with Stellenbosch University, WWF and the Ford Foundation. The exercise was
facilitated by Reos in late 2014.
What do we mean by the
‘food system’?
The food system includes all the components involved in production,
processing, distribution, consumption and waste. A sustainable food system
takes into consideration environmental, social and economic impacts and
provides nutritious food for all. It includes:
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Inputs, mechanisms, and structures for the production (land, water, crops,
marine stocks), processing, distribution, access, preparation, consumption,
metabolism and waste of food.
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Participants in the food system, including producers, fishers, industries,
labour, governments, purchasers (retailers and buyers, brands,
manufacturers, traders), communities and consumers.
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Social issues inherent in food equity, food justice and food sovereignty,
and political and spatial considerations on local, regional, national and
global levels.
Starting point – the burning
questions
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How will we feed a growing and (mostly) urban population?
How will we produce, especially in the light of limited natural
resources?
Who will produce food and with what support?
How will climate change impact on agriculture?
How will land reform play out?
How will the value chain function in future and what will it look
like?
How will we regulate food? What is the appropriate balance
between government intervention and market mechanisms?
What will people be eating in the future?
Can we change people’s consciousness about nutrition?
Four connected stories
Our Possible Futures
These scenarios, considered together, offer different ways of thinking
about the wider food system
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food as a natural resource
Food production
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food in the political economy
Food as nutrition
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
Basis for this scenario
Question: What effects will climate variability and water supply have on
food in South Africa?
What if… a severe dry-weather cycle makes the natural system upon
which food production depends even more vulnerable?
Food is examined as… a product of nature
This scenario is driven by… climate change, a crisis in water quality and
quantity, and energy insecurity
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
What happens by 2030?
A crisis in water quality and quantity coincides with a crisis in
energy supply, setting in motion a ripple effect through
interconnected ecological and social systems.
Soils have been depleted, there is limited viable arable land, irrigation
demand is growing and municipal infrastructure is ageing.
Poverty, inequality, high unemployment rates and household food insecurity
form the social backdrop to this scenario.
As a result of many of these factors, South Africa’s river systems take strain,
which in turn impacts on agriculture.
The onset of a severe dry-weather cycle in the north of the country makes
matters worse. Commercial farmers invest in specific infrastructure and
technology to try and mitigate the effects of climate change.
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
What happens by 2030?...continued
Although most large-scale farmers survive the dry weather, subsistence and
small-scale farmers are not so lucky. There is a widening gap between those
who have the resources to adapt to a changing climate, and its impact on
food prices worldwide, and those who do not.
But the dry weather takes its toll: there are job losses in the agricultural
sector and overall productivity declines. South Africa increasingly looks
towards its northern neighbours to supplement its food supply.
Meanwhile, the government has decided to address energy insecurity and
carbon emission levels by building a fleet of nuclear power stations,
procuring from Russia at a cost that proves hard to contain.
There is new evidence of soil degradation, despite evidence that
conservation farming is renewing soil fertility where it is being practised.
By 2030 South Africa is a hotter, more unequal country than it was in 2015,
with a more vulnerable natural resource base for agriculture.
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
What happens to the food
system as a result?
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Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
The quality of export crops is compromised by
poor water quality.
Job losses occur in agriculture.
Endangered honeybee species threaten crop pollination.
State expenditure on food is diverted to nuclear
infrastructure.
Crop yields decrease.
Global drought pushes up the prices of staple foods.
Air quality problems damage crops.
How do stakeholders respond?
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Commercial farmers increase their investment in biotechnology.
Water use increases, as do water restrictions.
There is close policing of water-use licences.
Conservation farming gears up.
Grants for and investments in climate mitigating infrastructure and
technology increase.
Strategy focuses on food sourcing from other countries in the
southern African region.
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
Summary of Scenario 1:
Focus
Vulnerability
Catalytic events
Natural resources
dimension
Water quality
and quantity
Dry-weather cycle,
decision to open
nuclear tendering
process
Issue
Capacity of the
natural resource
base to sustain
food production
Scenario 1: Root of the matter?
Food as a natural resource
Threats
Soil infertility, energy
insecurity and a
warmer climate
Impact
The capacity of the
natural resource base
to sustain sufficient
food production is
threatened
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
Basis for this scenario
Question: What happens to food production in an unequal and
polarised society?
What if… land reform does not move fast enough, resulting in land
invasions
Food is examined as… a product of farming
This scenario is driven by… land ownership pressures, climate
variability and currency volatility
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
What happens by 2030?
Farmers – both large and small – are under pressure, operating
in tough economic conditions that are made worse by the
uncertainties brought about by climate change and
land reform.
Commercial farmers are able to continue producing under these conditions
because they can consolidate and invest in infrastructure and biotechnology
such as GMO crops.
The majority of small-scale farmers are in survival mode, dependent on
government extension services and social grants.
The gap between commercial and small-scale farmers continues to widen.
The game-changer in this situation is land reform. Will restitution and
redistribution succeed in the meaningful transfer of land to black farmers
who have ambitions of commercial success, and provide them with the
necessary support?
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
What happens by 2030?...continued
There is growing frustration about continued socio-economic inequality and
the slow pace of change. This expresses itself most forcibly in land invasions
after 2020.
Rising tensions related to land unleash a series of events that increase
unemployment and food insecurity. These events also prompt a significant
number of white commercial farmers to leave South Africa for neighbouring
states.
Gradual improvement is seen in farmer support services and the public–
private land reform processes start to show results. By 2030, a new class of
medium-scale black farmers is emerging.
The private sector puts more weight behind local smallholder production.
By 2030 commercial agriculture has become less racialised, but there is a
lag effect because the emerging class of farmers are not yet able to catch up
on the backlog to restore volumes of agricultural output. Food security
remains at high risk.
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
What happens to the food
system as a result?
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Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
The depreciation of the rand pushes up farmers’ input costs.
Electricity, water and wage costs have a negative impact on
poorer farmers.
The variable climate affects the production of farmers who are
less able to adapt.
Land reform uncertainties discourage commercial farmers’
investment in fixed assets.
Land invasions and political uncertainty prompts an exodus of
commercial farmers.
The production of staples declines globally and locally due to
warmer weather.
How do stakeholders respond?
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Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
Commercial farmers increase investment in
technology to cope with the changing climate.
Land invasions are led by those who are unhappy
with the pace and scale of land reform.
The state provides support to co-operatives for
commodity-specific marketing and retail by
small-scale farmers.
Retailers increase support to small-scale farmers
to secure local food supply.
The government introduces food stamps, which
also incentivises the local procurement of food.
Summary of Scenario 2:
Focus
Vulnerability
Catalytic events
Agricultural
dimension
Land ownership
patterns
Second round of land
restitution claims
Issue
Productivity and
morale of South
African farmers
Scenario 2: Seeds of possibility?
Food production
Threats
Gap between commercial
and small-scale farmers,
political indecision, a
volatile rand exchange rate,
climate variability and
global instability
Impact
The productivity and
morale of farmers are
initially diminished,
but start to recover
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political
economy
Basis for this scenario
Question: Will the government and the private sector work together to
address inequality and unaffordable food prices?
What if… rising living costs and broken government promises catalyse a
powerful and organised national response from those most affected
by hunger?
Food is examined as… a product of the political economy
This scenario is driven by… food prices and the affordability of food in
the South African context, hunger, organised social movements and the
relationship between the market and the state
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
What happens by 2030?
This story hones in on the issues of pricing and affordability in
the context of deep inequality in the food system.
Global economic pressures and the depreciation of the rand combine with
existing local vulnerabilities (e.g. water scarcity and load-shedding) to push up
food and energy prices.
This creates a critical situation for millions of households that were already
food insecure.
Recognising the strong possibility of social upheaval, the government makes a
series of promises to its poorer constituents before the 2019 elections.
In the aftermath of these elections, it becomes clear that the government has
two incompatible constituencies, but that it fears antagonising its business
constituency most.
The Right to Food Coalition, which is launched by civil society, is able to
channel the rage of betrayed and hungry citizens into a million-person march.
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
What happens by 2030?...continued
In the face of a weakening rand, both the state and the private sector take
bolder collaborative action to support the agricultural sector and smallscale farmers.
While production levels rise over the ensuing years, both farmers and
poorer consumers continue to feel the economic pinch.
This draws attention to global trade arrangements and the mechanisms of
food pricing between the farm gate and the supermarket shelf.
The government’s failure to address these issues is a decisive factor in the
2029 elections and the ruling party is ousted by a party with a strong focus
on food sovereignty.
By 2030, there is a sense of hope in poor households across the country
that their voices have been heard and that hunger has no place in
their future.
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
What happens to the food
system as a result?
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Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
A depreciating rand and rising oil and electricity prices
push up food prices beyond affordable thresholds.
Election promises to the poor are broken and hunger
catalyses a strong reaction.
Prices continue to climb and a humanitarian
crisis develops.
Efforts to stimulate food production fail to bring pricing
within reach of the poorest people.
How do stakeholders respond?
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Civil society launches the Right to Food Coalition.
The government and the private sector implement the New Deal
Food Pact.
The new government launches food-price investigations and
reviews agreements with the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
Summary of Scenario 3:
Focus
Political and
economic
dimensions
Vulnerability
Catalytic events
Poverty and
inequality
Broken election
promises to the
poor
Issue
Pricing and
affordability of
food
Scenario 3: Kernels of truth?
Food in the political economy
Threats
Depreciating rand,
rising global oil prices,
rising domestic
electricity tariffs,
variable weather
patterns
Impact
Food prices are
unaffordable, resulting in
widespread hunger and
the use of the ballot box
to bring about change
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
Basis for this scenario
Question: Why do people eat the food they do?
What if… the crisis of malnutrition significantly dents South Africa’s
economic growth and social prosperity?
Food is examined as… a source of health, well-being and productivity
This scenario is driven by… urbanisation, low education outcomes, a
growing burden of lifestyle diseases, increased nutrition awareness and
increased food regulation by the state
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
What happens by 2030?
Positive things are happening in South Africa and there is
reason to be upbeat.
There is unprecedented investment in infrastructure, the health system is
preparing to deliver free, high-quality primary healthcare to all, and there
are signs that the education system will be shaken up to realise the vision of
the National Development Plan.
Amidst concern about the growing burden of non-communicable diseases
caused by dietary and habits and lifestyle, the state introduces new policies
in an attempt to reduce salt and sugar consumption.
However, by 2022 it becomes apparent that the significant amounts of
money and hope invested in infrastructure and education programmes are
failing to deliver the expected jumpstart to the economy.
Although more people are employed, productivity languishes.
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
What happens by 2030?...continued
More children are entering education and are benefiting from school
feeding schemes, but their academic results still fall short of the state’s
expectations given how much the state spends on education per child.
Throughout this story, social awareness about nutrition has been growing.
The subject of what we eat is a regular part of conversations across
government departments, industry and in the kitchens of South Africans –
both rich and poor.
As crises continue to grow in productivity levels, education outcomes and
within the health system, the Presidency commissions a review that creates
a growing understanding of the interrelated nature of nutrition, well-being,
education and productivity.
The story ends with a question: can this awareness catalyse behaviour
change in the interests of a healthier population and a more robust
economy?
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
What happens to the food
system as a result?
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Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
The National Infrastructure Development Plan accelerates
urbanisation and the spread of informal settlements.
More research and advocacy on food security and
nutrition produce a burgeoning body of evidence on the
shortcomings of the current approach.
A growing lifestyle-disease burden, underperformance in
education and low workplace productivity, despite major
investments in each, turn the spotlight on nutritional
deficits and the unhealthy eating habits of South Africans,
across class.
How do stakeholders respond?
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Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
The government introduces policy to restrict salt in
processed foods.
A ‘sin tax’ is imposed on sweetened and
carbonated drinks.
Retailers launch in-store nutrition campaigns.
Debates ensue about the impact of awareness vs policy
and incentives on consumers’ eating behaviour.
Summary of Scenario 4:
Catalytic events
Focus
Vulnerability
Nutritional
dimensions
Malnourishments
and obesity
Issue
Human well-being
and productivity
Scenario 4: Empty husks?
Food as nutrition
Threats
Significant state investment
in infrastructure, education
and primary healthcare
with expectations of
positive economic
impacts
Poor health outcomes,
disappointing
educational performance
and low workplace
productivity
Impact
Malnourishment
refocuses attention on
nutrition as a basis for a
healthy economy
What now?
These scenarios are a means of planning ahead. By considering the
plausible and possible futures that face us, they force us to think carefully
about the decisions we make now. How can we make decisions about
where we allocate our resources to better meet our needs now, and in 15
years’ time? How can we avoid the worst futures for food in South Africa
and move towards a more just, stable and nourishing food system?
Provoke, stimulate, inform, act
Like the team who created the scenarios, each of us can ask ourselves
the following questions about each scenario, be it on food as a natural
resource; food production, food in the political economy or food as
nutrition:
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‘If this scenario occurred, what would it mean for us? What are the
challenges that this he scenario poses’.
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‘If this scenario occurred, what would we do? What options do we
have?’
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‘Given these possible futures, what courageous actions can we take
together to create a different future?’
Thank you
To read the full scenarios and download related material for
your own use, visit www.thefutureoffood.co.za