Slovak Transition from Communism to Capitalism Jan Pokrivcak SAU Nitra, Slovakia jan.pokrivcak@uniag.sk The Slovak Experience Slovak Republic Area: 49 036 km2 Population: 5.4 million Pop. density: 109 per sq km Pol. system: parl. democracy Ethnicity of the population: Slovak (86%) Hungarian (10%), Romany (2%), Czech (1%), Rusyn, Ukrainian, Russian, German, Polish and others(1%) GNI per capita (2005): US$ 7,600 GDP growth (2007): 8.7% Contents • General Overview of Communist Economic System • Transition to Capitalism • The Case of Slovakia and other Central European Countries General Overview of Communist Economic System • Communist economic system = central planning + state ownership of production factors • Communist economic system applied in countries with one third of the world population, covering Russia and Mongolia, Central Europe, Balkan, Baltic Countries, and China, Vietnam and other offshoots. • It started in relatively backward agrarian countries like Russia in 1917. General Overview of Communist Economic System Behind Iron Curtain Source: DeLong: Macroeconomics General Overview of Communist Economic System • At the beginning it was not clear which system (communist or capitalist) more efficient • Many economists in the West advocated socialism • It turned out that communist economic system is less efficient than free market system General Overview of Communist Economic System Planned Economy vs. Market Source: DeLong: Macroeconomics General Overview of Communist Economic System There were still some positive outcomes of communist economies • • • • • equitable distribution of incomes, general access to education, health care, job security, industrialization (from agrarian countries) growth of production (in early years) General Overview of Communist Economic System But negative outcomes prevailed • shortages or surpluses, • slow economic growth in later periods • technological backwardness because of slow innovation • environmental damage by heavy industry • stagnating social indicators, health, life expectancy,… • intrusive government due to lack of private incentives • governments NOT maximizing social welfare but seeking own advantages (principal-agent problem) • lack of freedom – dictatorship General Overview of Communist Economic System Why communist economies poorer than market economies? – Initial conditions (communist countries were poorer in the first place) – Communist economies generated lower rates of economic growth General Overview of Central Planning Economic growth in communist period (% per capita p.a. ) Period EAST WEST 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 4.5 3.6 2.8 0.8 3.7 4.5 2.8 2.0 Communist economy good at mobilizing resources in short term, not able to sustain growth in long term. General Overview of Central Planning What caused poor performance of communist economies? • Central planning • Property rights General Overview of Central Planning Problems with central planning Imbalances NOT eliminated by price adjustments and prices do not send signals what is scarce or prospective and what abundant and useles. Quantities set directly by central planners. The whole economy is managed like a single firm (monopoly). But central planners unable to manage such a huge firm (ECONOMY): poor info and incentives. PRICE MECHANISM PERFORMS BETTER THAN CENTRAL PLANNING. General Overview of Central Planning Problems with central planning Central planning is the story of huge government failure stemming from: - inability to collect relevant information on preferences of consumers, availability of production methods and technology - inability to set long-term sustainable goals Free market economy often faces MARKET FAILURE Government failure bigger than market failure General Overview of Central Planning P S K PA L P* PB E N M D Q* QDA QSA Q General Overview of Central Planning Problems with property rights • Rights to use assets and enjoy income from the use of assets • In communism all assets owned by the state • Prices and profits irrelevant. • Managers not motivated to make profit but to fulfill quantitative plans. • Inability to motivate people to work hard • Punishment for increasing efficiency and innovation. Transition Collapse of communist experiment and transition • Communist system failed and was followed by TRANSITION from central planning to market economy • During TRANSITION all “rules of the game” (constitution, laws, codes of behavior, habits, property rights) changed. i.e., Market economy based on profit seeking entrepreneurial behavior while entrepreneurship in communism is considered to be speculation and trying to avoid hard work and therefore illegal. Transition Speed of Transition • Two options 1. Big Bang or Shock Therapy 2. Gradual reforms • Scope of reforms – – Economic reforms: Liberalization, stabilization, dismantling communist institutions (CMEA) and subsidies, privatization, banking system, safety net Institutional reforms: large-scale privatization, market oriented legal system and institutions, financial, labor, retirement regulations (in summary laws, regulations, institutions) Transition Speed of transition • CEEC and FSU big bang in economic reforms and variability in institutional reforms. Havel: “Cannot cross a chasm in two leaps” • CHINA gradual reforms only. Deng Xiaoping: “feeling stones to cross the river” Transition Speed of transition • China vs. CEEC and FSU – China dictatorship while CEEC and FSU became democracies, in China reforms conducted by communists in CEEC by democrats. – Chinese approach not used in CEEC as reformers (former dissidents) worried of Russia and return of communists in their own countries used WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY to make reforms irreversible. Transition Outcome of transition depends on • Initial conditions Some countries remembered pre-communist period and had market skills Some countries implemented institutions from the scratch (Slovakia) Some countries started transition with stable economy while others from macroeconomic imbalances Transition Outcome of transition depends on • Liberalization and stabilization policies – In general the stronger the liberalization the faster recovery of production – Stabilization macroeconomic policies crucial – Important to establish hard budget constraint Transition Outcome of transition depends on • Privatization and regulation Private firms more efficient than state owned Methods of privatization Financial regulation, labor code, regulation of pension system, taxation Enforcement of contracts Functioning of legal system Transition Outcome of transition depends on • Political system Avoidance of government failure Elimination of redundant redistribution and rent seeking Economic and legal predictability Sequencing of reforms EU accession The Slovak Experience Short history • • • • 1918 -1992 Slovakia part of Czechoslovakia. 1948 -1989 - communist country. 1993 - Independent Slovakia in 1993. 2004 - a member of the European Union. The Slovak Experience Short economic history – communist years • Most of Slovakia agrarian before 1948 • 1950s – 1960s – industrialization and economic growth • 1970s – 1980s – economic stagnation • 1990s – transition to market system and democracy The Slovak Experience Short Economic History – Transition Years • Initial decline of output caused (1990 – 1992) - Creative destruction • Economic recovery (1993 – 97) - Fruits of economic reforms • Slowing down and fiscal problems (1999 – 01) - Lack of institutional reforms and bad politics • Strong economic growth (2002 – current time) - Institutional market reforms and EU accession The Slovak Experience Adoption of EURO ERMII Slovakia – consensus Czech Republic – cons. Poland – consensus Hungary – consensus ERMII Euro adoption parity date* Final conv.rate* SKK rate* 2006 38 2009 35.0 2008 30.4-31 2010-2014 28.5 1.23 2008 3.85* 2009-2012 3.7 9.5 2008 255-260 2012-2014 255 13.7 The Slovak Experience Current economic performance • Currently, Slovakia is a fast growing economy with GDP growth of about 10 % in 2007 • Unemployment rate remains high but declining (about 10 % in 2009). • Regional differences: rich Western Slovakia, poor Eastern Slovakia. The Slovak Experience GDP Growth in Slovakia 15 10 5 0 1991 % -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 The Slovak Experience Economic growth 6.0 5.2 3.6 3.9 4.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Czech Republic 2005 Hungary 2006f Poland 2007f 2008f Slovak Republic average The Slovak Experience Unemployment rate 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 Core Unemployment (average) 01 02 03 LT average 04 05 The Slovak Experience Material distress 14.0% 700 12.0% 600 10.0% 500 8.0% 400 6.0% 300 4.0% 200 2.0% 100 0.0% 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 number (ths) % of total population Note: People in material distress include unemployed as well as people on social benefits that qualify. Material distress is defined as income below life minimum. However, the number of the poor is greater as the data does not include low income people (such as pensioners, etc). Some estimates put the poor at 10% instead of 7% in 2005. Source: Ministry of Labour The Slovak Experience Structure of Economy Agriculture 3,5 Services; 67,1 Industry; 29,4 The Slovak Experience • In the world perspective, SLOVAKIA is an upper middle income country with a Gross National Income per capita of US$ 7,600 in 2005. • In European perspective, Slovakia achieves about 55% of average income of 25 countries of the EU 0 Latvia Poland Lithuenia Slovakia Estonia Hungary Portugal Czech R, Slovenia Greece Spain EU25 Italy France Germany Sweden UK Austria Netherlands Ireland GDP per capita GDP per capita in 2005 in PPS EU25=100% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 The Slovak Experience Size of the market US (1) Germany (4) Poland (22) Czech Republic (40) Hungary (44) Slovak Republic (50) GDP (EURbn) Relative to German market Populat.(m) Relative to German population 10,119 513 265.6 324 1,973 100 81.9 100 403 20.4 38.7 47 170 8.6 10.3 13 139 7.0 10.1 12 62 3.1 5.4 7 Note: GDP adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity, 2004 data. Source: EUROSTAT The Slovak Experience Productivity comparison GDP per hour worked Germany = 100 US Germany Austria UK Source: OECD 108 100 99 94 Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Poland 52 49 45 41 Mexico 32 The Slovak Experience Working habits Hours worked per year # of hours Czech Republic Poland Slovakia USA UK Italy Austria Germany France Netherlands Source: OECD 1 972 1 956 1 814 1 792 1 673 1 591 1 550 1 446 1 431 1 354 OECD Rank Germany=100% 2 3 7 12 16 18 21 24 25 26 136% 135% 125% 124% 116% 110% 107% 100% 99% 94% The Slovak Experience Education % of population 25-64 having completed at least upper secondary education Czech Republic Slovakia Germany UK Poland Austria Hungary Netherlands France Source: Eurostat, 2002 data Percentage Rank 87.8 85.8 83.0 81.7 80.8 78.2 71.4 67.6 64.1 1 3 5 7 9 11 14 15 17 The Slovak Experience Economic freedom Czech Republic (21) Slo vakia (34) big impro vement in 2004 Hungary (40) P o land (41) 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: The Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal, Index of Economic Freedom. The lower the value, the greater the economic freedom. 3 The Slovak Experience Doing business 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Ease of Doing Business Slovakia Starting a Business Dealing w ith Licenses Czech republic The smaller the number, the better Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2006 Hiring and Firing Hungary Registering Property Poland Getting Credit Germany The Slovak Experience Labor market Difficulty Rigidity of of hiring hours index index Difficulty Rigidity of of firing employme index nt index Firing costs (weeks) CE average Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia 18 55 28 34 24 33 20 20 24 22 11 11 17 80 60 60 20 30 40 37 34 39 34 25 13 Germany 44 80 40 55 67 The smaller the number, the better The Slovak Experience Informal economy % of GNI Informal economy (% GNI, 2003) Slovakia 18.9 Czech Republic 19.1 Hungary 25.1 Poland 27.6 CE average Germany 23 16.3 The Slovak Experience FDI inflow % of GDP 12 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 R ia s us ) l ) (* zi (* co i d a a n si ex Br y la i M a a al Th M C na i h ) ) ) ia R *) ry nd (* (* (* k l ( a a d h n n ce va ol ga ai ng ec o e la u P p l u z t e e r S r S H C Ir G Po The Slovak Experience FDI inflow: CE comparison Slo vakia P o land Hungary Czech Republic -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 US$ 1989-1999 2000-2008 The Slovak Experience Most attractive sectors in CE in the future according an Ernst&Young Survey Car industry Mass consum Heavy industry Telecommunication Transport Tourism&leisure Telecom Hi-tech services Chemicals Hi-tech equipment Real estate/construction Financial industry Pharmacy 0% 28% 28% 27% 19% 16% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 7% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% The Slovak Experience Hourly labor costs in EUR % of CE % of EU15 avg 1996 2004E Feb-06 2.6 5.5 6.5 116.3 24.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 5.2 4.2 4.4 5.7 5.1 5.1 101.0 91.4 91.3 21.3 19.3 19.3 CE Average 2.6 4.8 5.6 100.0 21.1 EU Average 20 25.9 26.6 100.0 25.3 30.4 31.0 116.4 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Germany The Slovak Experience Corporate profit taxation Hungary(*) Slovakia Poland Czech Republic Germany(**) Netherlands France Austria EU15 average 2004 Corp tax rate(%) 2006 effective tax rate(%) Tax on dividends(%) 17.6 19 19 28 39.35 34.5 34.3 34 31.3 18.1 16.7 18.0 21.1 36.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 15.0 23.5 The Slovak Experience Personal tax rate 2004 marginal tax rate Slovakia 19 Czech Republic 32 Hungary 38 Poland 40 The Slovak Experience Government’s role in the economy revenues as % of GDP 55 50 45 40 35 30 Czech Republic Hungary Poland 1998 2003 Slovakia The Slovak Experience Government’s role in the economy revenues as % of GDP Conclusions • Communist experience taught us that: – Government failure bigger problem than market failure – Governments lack information and incentives to manage economy appropriately – Property rights play an important role, common property invites shirking, hinders activity Conclusions • Transition taught us that: – Free market mechanism indispensable – Soft budget constraint invites irresponsible behavior – Private property rights important – Institutions “rules of the game” that reward productivity rather than redistribution of income are crucial, “people respond to incentives” – Good legal system “enforcing contracts” decisive – Transparent politics promotes economic growth AGRICULTURAL TRANSITION 2nd part of presentation Introduction • In communist countries (before 1989) all economic activities directly regulated by state, the whole economy like a single firm. • Central planners set: – What firms have to produce – Trade flows among companies – Allocation of resources among companies • Prices set centrally and did not send right signals to producers and consumers. Introduction cont. • Agriculture centrally regulated too. • Land and farms (cooperatives) de facto owned by state. Decisions made centrally. • Land concentrated into large cooperatives. • Average farm size 1 457 ha in Poland 124 770 ha in Turkmenistan. • Farm size in market economies (USA, EU, …) much smaller. Average farm size Workers per 1000 ha Tractors per 1000 ha Workers/Tractors per 1000 ha (B/C) Albania 1 907 628 20 32 Bulgaria 19 464 156 10 15 Czechoslovakia 2 988 156 24 6 Hungary 3 559 158 10 16 Poland 1 157 259 29 9 Romania 2 696 209 15 14 Estonia 4 490 92 16 6 Latvia 4 041 102 15 7 Lithuania 3 094 109 15 7 Armenia 1 621 167 10 16 Azerbaijan 2 765 164 10 17 Belarus 3 417 125 14 9 Georgia 2 148 209 10 21 Kazakhstan 75 555 9 1 7 Kyrgyzstan 21 626 41 3 14 Moldova 2 519 279 25 11 Russia 8 473 50 7 7 Tajikistan 8 352 114 9 12 124 770 7 1 10 Ukraine 3 930 145 11 13 Uzbekistan 13 637 77 7 11 Turkmenistan Farm size during communism Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Romania Estonia Latvia Lithuania Average farm size (ha) 1 907 19 464 2 988 3 559 1 157 2 696 4 490 4 041 3 094 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Russia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Average farm size (ha) 1 621 2 765 3 417 2 148 75 555 21 626 8 473 8 352 124 770 3 930 13 637 Farm size in market economies Average farm size (ha) Japan EU-15 USA 1.24 18 197 Introduction cont. • 1989 – The Fall of Berlin Wall – collapse of communist regimes in CEE and FSU • Transition from centrally planned economy to market economy. • Transition involves institutional change (change of rules of the game in the form of laws, regulations, property rights, norms, …). • Institutions constrain behavior of individuals and through this have impact on productivity of the economy. • Market institutions support private incentives. Communist institutions hinder private incentives. Introduction: cont. • Transition of agriculture involves: 1. 2. 3. 4. Privatization Farm restructuring Price liberalization Formation of market institutions Privatization • During communism land and cooperatives owned by state. State ownership inefficient. Incentives to work higher in the case of private ownership of resources. • To increase efficiency property rights transferred from state to private hands – privatization. • Privatization in agriculture: – Privatization of land – Privatization of assets of cooperatives and state farms Privatization cont. • Privatization of land in FSU and CEE: – Restitution to former owners – Distribution to farm workers – Combination of restitution and distribution • Restitution to former owners: – Land restituted to owners from before nationalization and collectivization. Historical injustice caused by communism undone. – Restitution took place in CEE (except Albania) and in Baltic States. – Restitution feasible because nationalization and collectivization took place in recent past (after WWII), documentation exists and former owners or their children still alive. Privatization cont. • Distribution of land among farm workers : – Land distributed among farm workers in order to create equitable land ownership. – Applied in FSU and Albania. – Restitution infeasible in FSU because of search costs, missing documentation. Communist regime introduced in FSU after WWI. – Combination of distribution and restitution : – Some land restituted to former owners and some land distributed among farm workers. – Applied in Hungary and Romania. • In some countries (Byelorussia, Turkmenistan) privatization very limited. Kazakhstan, Distribution Albania Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Slovakia Romania Estonia Latvia Lithuania Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kyrgyzstan Russia Ukraine Restitution Distribution and restitution Belarus Limited privatization Kazakhstan Limited privatization Turkmenistan Limited privatization Privatization cont. • Privatization of farm assets : – Privatized by restitution and distribution. – Restitution served to undo former injustice while distribution compensated workers for their contribution to farm surpluses created and invested back into cooperatives. Farm restructuring • During communism cooperatives and state farms centrally managed. Farms had to fulfill central plan. • Restructuring aim was to transform farms such that they would react to market signals (prices and competition). • Two approaches to restructuring: – New owners could withdraw land from cooperatives (cooperatives could be dissolved) and establish family farm, these are the farms prevalent in developed market economies. – Remaining cooperatives transformed. Communist cooperatives changed into cooperatives of owners of property, joint stock companies or limited liability companies. Farm restructuring cont. • During restructuring process the average farm size declined. • In Slovakia, Czech Republic and in most FSU countries there are transformed cooperatives after restructuring. • In Albania, Baltic States family farms are dominant. • Both types of farms present in other countries. Family farms Share on land Farm size (ha) (%) Albania Bulgaria Czech R. Hungary Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Russia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Ukraine 96 44 28 59 87 55 12 94 63 90 32 9 16 24 20 11 7 0.3 4 17 1 20 4 8 2 42 2 12 Transformed coops Share on land (%) 4 55 72 41 13 45 88 6 37 10 68 91 84 76 80 89 93 99.7 96 83 Farm size (ha) 861 937 312 274 1185 327 297 6 100 2 100 Price liberalization • Prices are important in market economy. Prices provide signals to market participants how scarce commodities are. • High price may signal high demand. Profit maximizing firms therefore increase production. Firms allocate resources to goods with the highest demand which results in efficient allocation of resources. • In communism prices regulated by the state. Prices actually used only as an accounting tool to monitor state owned firms. Communist regimes therefore created surpluses of some goods and shortages of other goods. Price liberalization cont. • Price liberalization was an integral part of reforms. • Generally price liberalization lead to increase of price level. • The highest increase of prices observed for agricultural inputs while prices of agricultural outputs increased less. The reason was shortage of inputs and surplus of outputs prior to liberalization. Development of prices in Slovakia Development of prices in Hungary Development of prices in Russia Formation of market institutions • Former communist countries had to create institutions supporting market system. • They include the creation of safe private ownership rights, regulations supporting competition and contract enforcement. • Many countries, especially FSU, adopted laws preventing sales and renting of land which laead to inefficient allocation of resources. Formation of market institutions cont. • Some countries lacked full definition of ownership rights. • For example, in FSU new owners received shares of cooperatives not entitlement to a particular parcel. Direct relationship between land and individual was not created. • Better informed managers could constrain rights of less informed owners. • There was less of the problem in CEE. Formation of market institutions cont. • In overall, in CEE and Baltic States ownership rights and law enforcement was stronger than in FSU. The impact of transformation on agricultural production • All transition countries experienced the fall of agricultural production in the first years of transition. • After 4 years of transition agricultural production decreased by 40% in Baltic States, 30% in FSU, and by 20% in CEE. • The initial fall reflected the destruction of the old system of exchange of commodities while the new system was just being implemented. • After the initial fall stabilization ensued. Production in many countries started to rise. The biggest increase occurred in Albania, Slovenia and Romania. The impact of transformation on agricultural production cont. • Agricultural production reached pre 1989 level only in Albania, Slovenia, and Romania. • In FSU decline of production was bigger than in CEE and the subsequent rise smaller. The reason is that property rights were better defined and law enforcement was stronger in CEE. Agricultural resources were therefore more efficiently used in CEE than in FSU. Development of agricultural production in transitive countries Kazakhstan Russia 100 BRSZ Albania Index Czech R. Poland Romania KVSE Estonia Baltic States Počet rokov od začiatku transformačného obdobia 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Growth of GAO in Transition Countries (index equals 100 in first year of reform) Country Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Albania Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Years after start GAO index in reform with year of lowest lowest GAO GAO 5 6 5 10 2 7 3 3 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 75 69 77 68 77 57 75 65 41 37 64 57 42 58 51 GAO index after GAO index after 5 years of 10 years of reform reform 75 70 77 77 100 63 93 81 55 50 69 61 66 64 69 77 73 85 68 113 62 93 79 55 50 69 61 66 64 69 Growth of ALP (Output per Farm Worker) (index equals 100 in first year of reform) Country Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Albania Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Year with lowest ALP 1 1 3 0 2 9 9 3 1 8 5 4 8 5 8 ALP index in year of lowest ALP 99 99 96 100 77 60 59 61 76 49 62 69 41 63 52 ALP index after 5 years of reform ALP index after 8 years of reform 126 175 99 110 108 69 67 85 139 54 62 71 58 63 65 177 220 144 132 104 63 63 Na 163 65 77 87 41 65 52 Growth of Input Use Indexes in Transition Countries (index is 100 in first year of reform) Country Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Slovakia Albania Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Fertilizers Tractors Land Labor Animal Stock 5 10 5 10 5 10 5 8 5 10 29 15 35 17 19 25 27 56 17 21 10 25 42 11 24 24 18 38 15 14 14 17 52 20 53 16 40 2 9 11 58 72 114 89 74 69 106 56 106 82 118 92 93 82 92 82 61 113 77 68 51 110 118 109 89 137 62 78 61 68 103 94 99 100 101 98 100 91 107 99 100 98 102 98 100 103 95 98 100 102 98 100 83 106 97 100 97 102 98 99 54 43 89 71 92 92 118 95 40 79 113 8 114 100 106 44 37 97 60 107 99 110 87 35 77 103 73 111 92 102 69 59 81 65 121 47 63 86 50 38 52 79 64 74 75 53 51 69 46 107 42 50 82 32 6 41 64 32 47 41 Growth of Index of Agricultural Yields in Transition Countries (100 in first year of reform) Country Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Slovakia Albania Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Belarus Moldova Russia Ukraine Average agricultural yield after 5 years of transition 96.3 79.7 87.3 92.3 94.0 68.7 100.7 Na 86.0 82.7 80.7 72.3 Na 72.3 78.3 Average agricultural yield after 10 years of transition 115.3 98.0 100.0 107.3 100.0 75.7 102.7 Na 100.3 103.7 91.3 75.3 Na 74.7 71.0 Thank you for your attention