M e m o r a n d u m FROM: Jeff Romberger, SBW TO: Mark Kendall DATE: March 2, 2012 Version 2, March 15, 2012 RE: Deemed Measure Detail Review and Update Recommendations: Residential Manufactured Homes Duct Sealing CC: Tom Eckman, Charlie Grist and Adam Hadley This memo documents the results of EMP2’s detailed review of the deemed measure category Residential Manufactured Homes Duct Sealing. This measure category covers savings from improvements made to ducts in existing manufactured homes to reduce air leakage. Duct sealing must be carried out in accordance with the PTCS (Performance Tested Comfort Standard) duct sealing specification. EMP2 reviewed the RTF supplied file Res_MHDuctSealingFY10v2_2.xls. We also reviewed the parts of the SEEM workbook ExistingResidentialManufacturedHomes_SEEMRuns_02.xlsm related to this measure. The review focused on the derivation of Unit Energy Savings (UES). Summary Recommendation. This measure category should be re-classified as under review. Additional documentation for key parameters is needed and the savings runs need to be reanalyzed using SEEM94. Once these and documentation issues are resolved it can be returned to the active classification. Limitation of Review. We accepted without review the characteristics of the calibrated SEEM models and the associated climate and prototype weighting methods. Also, we did not review the macro “hpmid5bytype” which weights results by heat pump HSPF and control strategy. Additions to Workbook Documentation. A sheet called “Summary” has been added to the workbook. This sheet describes how measures are identified, lists important constants and their sources, describes the savings estimation algorithm and the associated baseline and efficient case parameters and their sources for each measure and UES component. 2820 Northup Way, Suite 230 Bellevue, WA 98004 Page 1 Workbook Calculation Errors. An error was found in the SEEM workbook ExistingResidentialManufacturedHome_SEEMRuns_02.xlsm. On the “MeasureInputsANDresults” tab, the cooling savings per unit weighted to average house size for duct tightness (see X213:AB213) uses the “Wx, etc.” weighting (“inputWeightings” tab, B2:B4) rather than the “Duct Tightness & Insulation” weighting (“inputWeightings” tab, C2:C4). It should be noted that this error does not affect the savings since the two weighting matrices are identical. Recommendations for Updates. The RTF should consider the following findings and recommendations for additional updates: 1) Workbook Structure and Formulas a) The workbook should be linked to the latest version of the SEEM runs workbook, which is currently “ExistingResidentialManufacturedHome_SEEMRuns_03.xlsm”. The workbook does not currently references SEEM Runs_03. b) The Measure Table sheet contains the UES values output by the ProCost model. ProCost must be run after any changes are made to input parameters or UES estimation equations. A quality control test should be added to this workbook that detects an out-of-date ProCost run by comparing the input and output UES values. c) The RTF adopted an updated version of SEEM94 in December of 2011. This updated version varies the infiltration calculations within the model. The duct sealing measure should be reanalyzed under the most current version of SEEM94 and updated appropriately. 2) Documentation a) The duct leakage factors used in the SEEM simulations are based primarily on a 2009 Study (Summary of 2006 NEEM Manufactured Homes) but were modified by Ecotope based on assumptions. Other studies also informed these assumptions such as the MAP 1995 (Manufactured Home Acquisition Program Analysis of Program Impacts). The main assumptions are the baseline duct leakage rate estimated at 15% and the post condition duck leakage rate of 5%. The studies appear to support similar figures, but it is unclear of how these percentages were determined. The 2006 NEEM Study, Table 19: Supply Leakage Fraction has varying results in terms of Supply Leakage Fraction (SLF), if figures are mainly based on the 2006 NEEM study, additional data needs to support the baseline and post condition key parameter input. Also, the NEEM study compares the 2000 sealing standards to the post condition 2006 sealing standards. A more appropriate study would apply duct leakage values from existing homes prior to compliance with the current PTCS standard. It is recommended that these assumptions be fully documented. Page 2 b) As a reference, EMP2 found a document similar to the PTCS Standard. The document is ACCA Standard 5 (HVAC Quality Installation Specification). This may be a good document to reference when updating the PTCS Standard. 3) Measure Definition a) No changes recommended. 4) UES Savings Estimation Method a) No changes recommended. 5) Input Parameters a) The baseline and post condition SLF needs further verification and documentation. These figures are based primarily on the results of the NEEM 2000 and NEEM 2006 Study. The NEEM study evaluates impacts of changes in specification and manufacturing techniques on the performance of the homes. A more appropriate study would be a comparison between a large grouping of existing manufactured homes compared to manufactured homes that are in compliance with the current PTCS standard. The NEEM study reduced SLF leakage percetnage is from introducing duct mastic into factories in 2005, not by meeting the requirements in the current PTCS Standard. It is recommended to further investigate existing studies which may be more appropriate for this application. EMP2 also found several other documents for Manufactured Homes that may be beneficial for future reference under the ACEEE website: 1. Comprehensive Evaluation Study of 12,000 California Mobile Homes 2. Measured Heating System Efficiency Retrofits in Eight Manufactured (HUDCode) Homes 3. Savings from an Expedited Duct Sealing Program for Mobile Homes Overall, EMP2 recommends that the additional documentation and formulation of base and post condition case key parameters be supported with studies that support existing SLF% to SLF% that meet the PTCS standard. Summary of 2006 NEEM Manufactured Homes: Field Data and Billing Analysis, David Baylon et al, Ecotope, 2009. 2 Comprehensive Evaluation Study of 12,000 California Mobile Homes, Anne Blankenship, Robert J. Mowris, and Ean Jones et al, Robert Mowris & Associates, Dave Robinson and Howard Reichmuth et al, Stellar Process, 2003. 3 Measured Heating System Efficiency Retrofits in Eight Manufactured (HUD-Code) Homes, Jeff Siegel et al, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, Bob Davis, Paul Francisco, and Larry Palmiter et al, Ecotope Inc., Seattle, WA, 1998. 4 Savings from an Expedited Duct Sealing Program for Mobile Homes, Anne Minor et al, West, West and Company, David Robinson and Howard Reichmuth et al, Stellar Processes, Inc., Tom West et al Eugene Water and Electric Board, 1998. Page 3