Grade Inflation in Irish
Universities 1994-2004
DCU April 8 2008
1
Grade Increase

Rate of first class and 2.1 awards across
the seven universities between 1994-2004
2
Percent First Class Honours in
Primary Degrees (1994-2004)
Year
UCD
UCC
NUIG
TCD
NUIM
DCU
UL
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
9.4
10.0
8.1
9.0
8.0
9.4
10.6
10.5
11.7
13.2
6.5
6.7
7.6
7.7
8.6
8.8
10.1
11.1
12.3
15.9
7.4
9.4
9.1
10.4
8.8
10.0
10.2
11.7
16.3
14.8
6.8
7.0
6.5
7.5
8.1
7.6
7.8
10.0
9.1
13.9
1.5
2.0
1.8
1.3
3.0
4.5
4.3
5.1
8.7
11.1
9.5
8.7
7.5
9.0
12.1
12.2
13.1
15.0
13.7
20.6
7.2
7.6
8.9
10.1
8.2
8.8
10.1
10.5
10.1
11.7
3
Increase in % First Class (1994-04)
4
Percent 2.1 Honours in Primary
Degrees (1994-2004)
Year
UCD
UCC
NUIG
TCD
NUIM
DCU
UL
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
34.4
35.3
30.5
33.8
34.4
32.5
34.0
35.1
36.6
40.7
29.1
32.2
31.8
36.6
34.5
29.4
39.2
41.1
41.7
42.5
30.9
32.5
28.6
29.2
32.5
34.5
36.8
35.7
37.1
41.0
23.2
26.0
22.6
24.4
21.9
26.4
29.7
29.5
33.7
52.3
9.4
13.6
18.5
12.9
12.0
21.4
21.2
26.3
28.6
32.5
41.5
28.1
33.1
35.8
33.7
40.3
41.4
43.7
43.7
42.3
21.2
25.0
27.0
25.4
27.6
28.5
28.6
30.8
32.4
36.7
5
Increase in % 2.1 (1994-2004)
6
Percentage Change in Rate of Firsts
between 1994-96 and 2002-04
Year
NUIM
UCC
DCU
NUIG
TCD
UL
UCD*
1994
1995
1996
Mean % (94-96)
1.5
2.0
1.8
1.8
6.5
6.7
7.6
6.9
9.5
8.7
7.5
8.5
7.4
9.4
9.1
8.6
6.8
7.0
6.5
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.9
7.9
9.4
10.0
8.1
9.2
2002
2004
Mean % (02-04)
% Increase
8.7
11.1
9.9
459.0
12.3
15.9
14.1
104.3
13.7
20.6
17.2
101.2
16.3
14.8
15.6
79.9
9.1
13.9
11.5
70.2
10.1
11.7
10.9
38.1
11.7
13.2
12.5
35.6
7
Percentage Change in Rate of 2.1 awards
between 94-96 and 02-04
Year
NUIM
TCD
UL
UCC
NUIG
DCU
UCD*
1994
1995
1996
Mean % (94-96)
9.4
13.6
18.5
13.8
23.2
26.0
22.6
23.9
21.2
25.0
27.0
24.4
29.1
32.2
31.8
31.0
30.9
32.5
28.6
30.7
41.5
28.1
33.1
34.3
34.4
35.3
30.5
33.4
2002
2004
Mean % (02-04)
% Increase
28.6
32.5
30.5
121.0
33.7
52.3
43.0
79.6
32.4
36.7
34.6
41.7
41.7
42.5
42.1
35.7
37.1
41.0
39.1
27.5
43.7
42.3
43.0
25.6
36.6
40.7
38.6
15.7
8
Summary of Increase





Firsts +76% (02-04 vs. 94-96)
2.1s + 21.4% (02-04 vs. 94-96)
1994: No university over 10% firsts
2004: No university under 10% firsts with
one over 15% and another over 20%
Firsts:


7% in 1994
17% in 2005
9
Does Grade Increase = Inflation


Have the learning abilities/motivation of
students improved sufficiently?
Has the teaching/education of students
improved sufficiently?
OR

Have standards declined?
10
Signs from elsewhere - Institutes of
Technology

Grade Increase 94-96 to 02-04




+38% Distinctions in National Certificates
+42% Distinctions in National Diplomas
+52% First Class In Bachelors Degrees
Change in Minimum CAO Points

Proportion of courses with points below:
300 15% (1991)
25% (2000)
350 62% (1991)
83% (2000)
400 85% (1991)
97% (2000)
11
How predictive of college grades
are CAO points?

Unpublished NUI Study (2004)




UCD, UCC, NUIG, NUIM
Arts, Commerce, Science and Law
Graduates in 2003 and 2004
Findings



+505 points vs. <405 = 3 times rate of 1/2.1
405- 450 points = 7% firsts
<405 points = 3% firsts
12
Minimum CAO Points for
Universities (92/93 vs. 98/01)
Minimum Points
Less than 400
Less than 450
Less than 500
% of courses 1992-93
47.7
76.8
89.6
% of courses 1998-01
39.4
66.4
85.9
13
Do Minimum Points Predict Typical
Points?

Study on 2002 figures for all university
courses


Correlation between minimum and median
Points (r = .8969)
Correlation between minimum points and
number of students admitted ( r= .04662)
14
Overall CAO Points 95-06: Grade
Inflation at LC level?
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
<100
19.9
18.9
18.2
14.9
13.0
12.4
11.8
12.1
11.3
11.9
11.7
11.6
100-199
19.2
18.0
18.6
19.0
17.8
16.7
16.1
15.7
15.1
14.7
14.9
15.0
200-299
19.7
19.8
19.4
20.5
20.5
20.5
20.4
20.2
20.3
19.4
19.1
19.4
300-399
21.9
22.1
22.1
22.7
23.9
25.5
25.4
25.1
25.6
25.4
25.4
24.7
400-499
15.5
17.0
17.1
17.8
19.0
19.1
19.7
20.1
20.4
20.7
20.9
20.9
500+
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.1
5.7
5.7
6.7
6.7
7.3
7.9
8.0
8.4
15
Extrapolation



Over 50% increase in potential entrants
with 400+ points between 1995 and 2006
Evidence that similar increase occurred
between early 1990s and early 2000s
If this represents grade inflation, it
counters the real impact of higher
minimum points for university courses
16
Increased Student Motivation?

Hypothetical Influences



Selection effects – fewer less motivated
students advancing to LC and College?
Greater competition for limited employment
opportunities?
Less focus on other activities?
Part-time work
 Socialising
 Sport etc.

17
Inter-University Comparisons



Are differences between Universities in
percentages of firsts and 2.1s awarded
explicable through differences in the calibre of
students they attract?
Cases of DCU and NUIM.
DCU – highest rate of upper grades



Top of table in firsts and 2.1s in 6/10 yrs
Continued high rate in 05 and 06
NUIM – highest rate of grade increase


7.8 fold increase in firsts and 2.2 in 2.1s
Further very large increases in 05 and 06
18
Entrance Requirements DCU vs.
All Universities
Minimum Points
1992-1993
Less than 350
Less than 400
Less than 450
Less than 500
% of courses
DCU
12.8
48.7
97.4
100.0
% of courses
All Universities
21.0
47.7
76.8
89.6
Minimum Points
1998-2001
Less than 350
Less than 400
Less than 450
Less than 500
% of courses
DCU
21.6
50.3
76.6
94.6
% of courses
All Universities
17.9
39.4
66.4
85.9
19
Change in Entrance Requirements
at NUIM





Upward trajectory started in 1998
Comparison of 1994 entrants with 2001
(graduates in 1997 and 2004)
1994 – 4 courses (340-370 min points)
2001 – 15 courses (3 account for circa
80% of students; 2 same points, 1 lower)
2002 – 5 courses with points >370 (total
of 56 entrants out of 1226)
20
DCU & NUIM Continuing Trend

DCU – Firsts:



25.45% in 2005
21.19% in 2006
NUIM – Firsts


19.96% in 2005
18.3% in 2006
21
Dangers of Grade Inflation


The ceiling effect – lack of discrimination
at the top
Self-perpetuating momentum





Competition
Impact on student performance
Drift from objective standards or criteria
Impact on education
Qualification devaluation/inflation
22
Whence grade inflation?

Universalisation of higher education




Egalitarian zeitgeist
Drive towards institutional growth



Pressures to attract and retain students
Contagion Effects
Funding Models


Normal distribution of learning ability
Digging deeper to fill places
Unit costing
Lack of either system or culture to maintain
standards
23
Network for Irish Educational
Standards

Data and research papers by Martin O’Grady,
Simon Quinn and Brendan Guilfoyle on
www. stopgradeinflation.ie

Network for Irish Educational
Standards
Research, information, opinion welcome
 Join the network for updates

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