Section 2. What Social And Environmental Issues Exist: Strengthening Design And Implementation of REDD+ 2.9. Economic and Financial Viability and Sustainability USAID LEAF Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development Module: Social and Environmental Soundness (SES) Name Affiliation Kasetsart University, Thailand Penporn Janekarnkij; Co-Lead Kasetsart University, Thailand Surin Onprom; Co-Lead Name Affiliation Tran Thi Thu Ha Vietnam Forestry University Nguyen Dinh Hai Vietnam Forestry University Rejani Kunjappan; Co-Lead RECOFTC Thailand Vo Mai Anh Vietnam Forestry University Claudia Radel; Co-Lead Utah State University Tran Tuan Viet Vietnam Forestry University Sarah Hines; Co-Lead US Forest Service Cao Tien Trung Vinh University, Vietnam Sidthinat Prabudhanitisarn Chiang Mai University, Thailand Nguyen T. Trang Thanh Vinh University, Vietnam Sharifah Zarina Syed Zakaria University Kebangsaan Malaysia Nguyen Thu Ha USAID Vietnam Forests & Deltas Mohd Rusli Yacob University Putra Malaysia Maeve Nightingale IUCN MFF Kaisone Phengspha National University of Laos Guada Lagrada PACT MPE Phansamai Phengspha National University of Laos Le Van Trung DARD Lam Dong Kethsa Nanthavongduangsy National University of Laos Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh AIT Thailand Freddie Alei University of Papua New Guinea David Ganz USAID LEAF Bangkok Chay Kongkruy Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Kalpana Giri USAID LEAF Bangkok Soreivathanak Reasey Hoy Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Chi Pham Project Coordinator USAID LEAF Bangkok I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. Introduction to Climate Change The Climate Change Mitigation & Adaptation Context Introduction to Social and Environmental Soundness (SES) Guiding Frameworks – Sustainable Development & Ethics II. WHAT SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES EXIST: STRENGHENING DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF REDD 2.1. Environmental Co-benefits: Introduction to Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 2.1.1. Carbon/REDD+ Project Accounting, Carbon Monitoring & MRV 2.2. Governance 2.2.1. Regulatory Framework, Forest Tenure, and Carbon Rights 2.3. Stakeholder Participation 2.3.1. FPIC 2.4. Social Co-benefits 2.5. Gender Equity and Women’s Empowerment 2.5.1. Gender Analysis Tools 2.5.2. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index 2.6. Indigenous Peoples and their Empowerment 2.7. Local Livelihoods: An Introduction 2.7.1 Livelihoods impact Case Study: April Salumei, PNG 2.8. REDD+ Benefits Sharing 2.9. Economic and Financial Viability and Sustainability III. STATE OF THE ART IN ACTION: BRINGING THE PIECES TOGETHER 3.1. Safeguard Mechanisms in REDD+ Programs 3.2. Streamlining of Safeguards and Standards 3.3. Developing National Level Safeguards At the end of this section, learners will be able to: Explain the basic economic concepts relevant to PES/REDD+ List, categorize, and identify the benefits and costs (B&C) and tradeoffs Apply the developed skills to use economic decision tools for analyzing social and environmental soundness (SES) in REDD+ Evaluate the linkages between B&C of REDD+ and how these link to SES Basic economic concepts for REDD+ Demand, supply, value Externality Economic tradeoffs SES and economic linkages Benefits and costs associated with PES/REDD+ Benefits: categories and accounting Costs: categories and accounting Economic and financial decision and assessment Benefit cost analysis Opportunity cost analysis Non-market valuation Methods Lecture Brainstorming Group Discussion/debate Case Study Group Presentation Individual exercise Time 3 sessions Students should read: Pagiola, Stefano and Benoît Bosquet (2009). Estimating the Cost of REDD at the Country Level. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, World Bank. Available at: http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/18062/1/MPRA_paper_18062.pdf Demand, supply Value, price Benefit, cost Externality, public good Economic tradeoffs Linking economics to SES Brainstorm questions relevant to PES/REDD+ and select those that need economic thoughts and reasoning. ..“If the global community wants to spend up to, say, $250 billion per year over the next 10 years to diminish the adverse effects of climate change, and to do the most good for the world, which solutions would yield the greatest net benefits?”.. (Copenhagen Consensus Center) $/ton CO2 e Supply Supply = p2 p1 0 safe minimum standard D2 = Demandoptimal D1 = Demand minimum CO2 CO2 seq.min seq.optimum marginal cost curve Demand = marginal benefit curve Ton CO2seq./year $/ton CO2 e Supply Supply = p2 p1 0 safe minimum standard marginal cost curve D1 = Demand minimum Demand = marginal benefit curve New REDD, PES suppliers CO2 CO2 seq.min seq.optimum Ton CO2seq./year Ecosystem Service Average Maximum Provisioning services Food Water Raw materials Genetic resources Medicinal resources Regulating services Improvement of air quality Climate regulation Regulation of water flows Waste treatment / water purification Erosion prevention Cultural Services Opportunities for recreation and tourism 1,313 75 143 431 483 181 4,426 230 1,965 1,360 177 694 381 381 4,699 552 411 1,418 1,756 562 10,492 449 3,218 5,235 506 1,084 1,171 1,171 Total 6,120 16,362 No. of studies 19 3 26 4 4 2 10 6 6 9 20 109 Socio-cultural aspect Social, cultural, institutional interactions Biological, chemical, physical interactions Economic value Ecologyeconomics Ecosystem services - human connection/use Services Goods/Products (non-material) (inputs&output) e.g. flood control, groundwater recharge, nutrient cycling, toxics e.g. food/crops, fish, removal, biodiversity maintenance, pest and disease control, timber, non-timber forest recreation, amenity products, medicines, clean water, energy Provisioning Direct use value -Provisioning service -Cultural service Cultural Regulating Benefits to human well-being Option value Indirect use -Provisioning service value -Regulating service -Regulating service -Cultural service Use value Total economic value Supporting Non-use value -Supporting service Ecological aspect Ecosystem structure, process/function Economic value is: Anthropocentric Extrinsic Instrumental In economics, value of thing is associated with: • Its production cost • peoples’ willingness to pay for it – the maximum amount of money a person is willing to pay for the last unit of a good. This normally reflects thing’s usefulness and scarcity. Forests, as natural capital, provide ecosystem services for free. In economics, we value nature from benefits we receive and our willingness to pay for it. If we had to provide them ourselves, we calculate the economic cost of these services. Economists always consider the NET VALUE or NET BENEFIT Net value = Gross value - Cost Discussion: 1. What is the difference between carbon price and carbon value? 2. How can you estimate them? In-class group exercise: 1. 2. List all advantages and disadvantages of forest conservation Classify benefits for advantages and costs for disadvantages and categorize them (see example of benefits below). Example … benefit. Forest conservation Market benefit (wood, non-wood products, ecotourism) Non-market benefit (GHG reduction, soil and water regulation, pollination) Forest conservation On-site benefit Within country (water service protection) Off-site benefit Outside country (carbon sequestration, biodiversity enhancement) An externality is a cost or benefit that affects a party who did not choose to incur that cost or benefit (Wikipedia) REFORESTATION can create various benefits Internal (private) benefits: woods and non-wood products received by tree owners External benefits: water stabilization, reduced atmospheric CO2 level, increased pollination, and biodiversity enhancement Social benefit = private benefit + external benefit Social cost = private cost + external cost Thus, Net social benefit = social benefit – social cost Group discussion: 1. What are the internal and external benefits of forest conservation? 2. What are the private cost and external costs of forest conversion? $/ha MSB = MB + MEB MB MC – marginal cost MB – marginal benefit MEB – marginal external benefit MC p2 p3 p1 MEB 0 500 800 Forest area (ha) Reforestation activities:: Cost – labour and materials; Internal Benefit (on-site) - wood and non-wood products External Benefit (off-site) - climate regulation, water stabilization, biodiversity enhancement $/ha MSC = MC + MEC MB1 MC MC – marginal (private) cost MB - marginal benefit p2 p1 p3 0 MSC – marginal social cost MEC – marginal external cost MEC 100 150 Converted area (ha) Land conversion for maize production: Internal Cost (imposed to land user) - labour and materials; External (off-site) Cost – GHG emission, biodiversity loss, risk of soil erosion Internal Benefit (on-site) - income from logging and maize products Decision involves “trade-off” when something must be sacrificed or given up whenever a choice is made. This is due to “scarcity”. In “trading off” you need to think about “opportunity cost” or value of the next best option foregone. In “trading off” you also need to ask who are the relevant decision makers. When you do the “economic trade-offs”, you may need to do “economic analysis” Brainstorming: 1. What are questions related to REDD+/PES programs where we need to consider economic trade-offs? 2. How should those trade-offs be made? Group debate: students are divided into two groups and debate the following issue, “To keep forest intact OR to convert land for oil palm plantation” Forest …………………….Oil palm Group debate: students are divided into two groups and debate the following issue, “should the country implement REDD+?” Forest (with REDD+ revenue)..…Conversion (with development revenue) Economics of PES/REDD+ and “green economy” Forest activities and participatory forest management as part of poverty alleviation strategy, Investment in forest conservation as part of green growth Social and environmental soundness (SES) => foundational elements of sustainable development planning Group discussion and presentation: complete column 3 of this table. SES principle Details Economic aspect Do no harm to avoid, minimize, or mitigate any possible negative social or environmental impacts. Example: Non declining in household income ……. Do good (or do more) to increase environmental or social benefits (often referred to as “cobenefits.”) ……. ……. No regrets Biodiversity improved, forest stock maintained/enhanced, local capacity ……. …… End of Session 1 Benefit REDD+/PES activities Activity When, for how long Direct Indirect (impact) Cost To whom Direct Indirect (impact) To whom 1………….. 2.………….. 3.………….. 4.………….. 5.………….. Impact: actual or potential impact (be specific as we can) To whom: house hold Level (# households), community level, provincial level, national level? Group discussion to list down all available Benefits & Costs (actual and potential) associated with the REDD activities Beginning of Session 2 Brainstorm how they are measured? In REDD+, countries must (1) reduce deforestation and forest degradation, and/or (2) enhance carbon stocks. These involve benefits and costs as follows: Cost • Direct cost • Implementation cost (forest protection, improved forest management, administration) • Transaction cost (emission reduction certification and MRV) • Indirect cost (forgone benefits of alternative land use) Benefit • Direct benefit • Monetary benefits (revenue from selling carbon) • Co-benefits (market and nonmarket benefits from other ecosystem services, e.g., ecotourism, non-timber products, biodiversity enhancement, recreational benefits, soil and water stabilization) • Indirect benefit (improved governance, infrastructure provision, social relation, etc.) Categories of “benefit and cost” On- and off-site Local and global Private, external/environmental, and social Economic and financial (students learned from previous sub-session) Accounting of “benefit and cost” From which perspectives should benefits and costs be calculated? Individual household Government agencies, the country Project investor Cost Categories Opportunity costs Set-up costs Implementation costs Monitoring costs Definition Activity Costs resulting from the forgone benefits that deforestation would have generated for livelihoods and the national economy. Costs necessary for the implementers to establish or start a REDD+ project, taking it from design to implementation. The foregone cost of a different land use (the forest could instead be used for agriculture, livestock, etc.) Information search and design (e.g., carbon stocks, deforestation modeling, socioeconomic characteristics), negotiation, certification, capacitybuilding, procurement, etc. Costs directly associated with the The estimated costs of delivering actions leading to reduced and monitoring a REDD+ project: deforestation or forest degradation, establishing baselines, preparing and and hence to reduced emissions. submitting project design documents. Costs necessary for the All activities involved in monitoring implementers of a REDD+ project to carbon stocks, deforestation and forest determine if a certain amount of degradation, and environmental and emissions reduction has been social co-benefits. achieved; as well as other cobenefits. In REDD+ program, “opportunity cost” is the most important component of a country or a group of people would incur. REDD+ opportunity costs are: the difference in net earnings from conserving or enhancing forests versus converting them to other, typically more valuable, land uses or the forgone net benefit of changing land use the expenditures necessary to compensate landowners for the value of the most profitable activity on their land, such as logging or agriculture the shadow price of REDD carbon credit, which should be not lower than opportunity cost of REDD+. How does the “co-benefits”, explored in earlier session, relate to opportunity costs? Calculated with 5% discount rate over 30 year horizon To estimate the opportunity cost, we need to know: 1. Profitability of each alternative land uses 2. Carbon conserving capacities of each land use End of Session 2 Distinction between financial and economic assessment Assessment tools Cost-benefit analysis Opportunity cost analysis Non-market valuation Beginning of Session 3 Economic assessment (EA) EA considers a project from the view of society as a whole in real terms. EA is more focused on overall social welfare. EA includes the consideration of social and environmental factors in the calculation of profit. Project inputs should be valued at their opportunity costs and outputs at consumers’ willingness to pay Financial assessment (FA) Only actual amount of money being paid or received is considered in a FA. FA is more focused on private profit. Financial sustainability occurs when the project remains fiscally viable (avoids running out of cash) throughout its duration. The common ground The difference between FA and EA The time frame The scale or spatial detail (eg., spatial and non-spatial boundary) The stakeholder group Economic (real- reflecting economic efficiency) price vs. financial (or market) price Social (economic) vs. private discount rate Results of FA are the key inputs to calculating EA in REDD+ Assessment for whom in REDD+/PES? • Private: firm/investor, land owners/ communities • Public: local and national governments Can REDD+ programs provide enough incentive to conserve or restore forests; do the benefits outweigh the costs? Given the GHG mitigation target, how can the country implement REDD+/PES at the lowest possible cost? How are the stakeholders affected by a government intervention/ program/ project? Cost-benefit Analysis Opportunity Cost Analysis Non-market valuation (for co-benefits) An economic decision tools for analyzing social and environmental soundness in REDD+ to find out the best alternative. The project with the largest net benefit yields the most benefit to society CBA can be used for a project at local or national levels In REDD+/PES, although the direct benefits are Increasing income Creating jobs Here (for a simple case), we focus the benefits on income or revenue received from REDD+ Measure Net present value (NPV) Description the difference between the discounted total benefits (B) and costs (C) Criteria If NPV ≥ 0 Internal Rate the rate that produces a If IRR ≥ of Return zero value for the NPV relevant (IRR) discount rate Benefit-cost ration (BCR) Calculation NPV = IRR = k, that makes NPV = = 0 BCR = [ the ratio between If BCR ≥ 1 discounted benefits and (for competing projects select the costs one with highest BCR) Note: 1. For economic BCA, we need to compute the real terms from monetary terms. 2. If we evaluate only one project, we do not need to calculate BCR but NPV. 1. Preparing project cash flow - predict the future cash flow stream for the life time of the project 2. Selecting discount rate (r) - we typically use the discount rate offered by the central bank of the country. 3. Calculating the NPV - future cash flow (CF, revenue-expense) has to be discounted by the discount rate. Then all of the numbers are summed up and finally the initial investment is subtracted. 4. NPV = - initial investment NPV = - initial investment + + +...+ (the cash flow from year zero is the initial investment) Calculating IRR: NPV = - initial investment = 0 ton C/ha $/ha 400 250 50 10 0 Field crop Forest 0 Field crop Carbon density Changing from Field crop to Forest: Forest Profit (NPV) Calculating opportunity cost/ha (400-50 = $ 350/ha) is not correct Calculating opportunity cost of REDD must be per carbon basis Loss of profit = 400-50 dollar/ha Gain of carbon = 250-10 ton C/ha Opportunity cost of REDD equals 350/240 = 1.46 dollar/ton C Note: Other ecosystem services of forest are not included. Non-market valuation estimates the value individuals derive from goods and services not traded in conventional markets. Non-market valuation relies on either revealed or stated preferences. Economic value is determined by people’s willingness to pay, or make tradeoffs, to consume a good or service. Economic valuation for REDD+: we value changes in ecosystem serices as an impact of ecosystem changes. Welfare effect to individuals If welfare gain BENEFIT If welfare loss COST REDD+ project Impact on land use Change in ecosystem services Consumers Producers Consumer surplus, compensating surplus, equivalent surplus Profit, producer surplus, compensating surplus, equivalent surplus Willingness to pay for the tradeoff (WTP) Willingness to accept compensation (WTA) Economic value of change in Ecosystem services Economic valuation of ecosystem services (co-benefits) - bring the less obvious items to more tangible and translate into monetary terms Use value Option value Direct use value -Provisioning service -Cultural service Indirect use value -Regulating service -Supporting service Outputs/services that can be consumed directly Functional benefits used as intermediate inputs for production of final goods and services to humans • water purification • waste assimilation • Pollination and disease control for food production • Biological support • Carbon sequestration • Global life-support • • Extractive (timbers, food, fuel, etc.) Non-extractive (tourism, research, etc.) Indirect use value -Provisioning service -Cultural service -Regulating service value for preserving the option to use such services in the future either by the individual (option value) or by others or heirs (bequest value) • Endangered and charismatic species • Threatened wildlife habitats • Aesthetic landscapes • ‘Way of life’ and traditional use Non-use value Non-use value -Supporting service based on moral convictions, usually known as existence value (or, onetimes, conservation value or passive use value) • Endangered and charismatic species • Threatened wildlife habitats • Aesthetic landscapes • ‘Way of life’ and traditional use Source: adapted from Pagiola (2005) and Batemann et al., (2007) Two ways to know the economic value for “non-market goods and services”: The most you would be willing to pay for the item if you had to, and if you could get it by paying. = maximum willingness to pay (WTP) The minimum compensation you would be willing to accept to give the item up. = minimum willingness to accept compensation (WTAC) Methods based on types of data availability 1. Valuation using conventional market price 1.1 direct market based value (actual value) 1.2 indirect market based value (value of other goods with related type of services) 2. Valuation using surrogate market 2.1 travel cost 2.2 hedonic price Methods based on types of data availability 3. Valuation using hypothetical/simulated market (survey of “willingness to pay/willingness to accept” value) 3.1 contingent valuation 3.2 contingent choice method or choice modeling 4. Valuation using other techniques, i.e., benefit transfer and participatory environmental valuation 1. Valuation using market prices 1.1 Direct market based value To value forest products with established markets. Local market prices (on-site sale value) can be a good approximation where such prices are available. The approach is the most obvious means of establishing a value for extractive uses of an environmental good 1.2 Indirect market based value To value Forest goods and services that have no immediate market values, e.g., those are home-consumed and have never reached market. For example, kerosene price are used as firewood benefits. The approach is applicable for forest services derived from regulating function (by looking at substitute cost/replacement cost/preventive expenditure) 2. Valuation using surrogate market 2.1 Travel cost method (TCM) To value cultural services from forest by estimating the “demand function” 2.2 Hedonic price method (HPM) To value regulating services from forest by estimating the “hedonic price function”, the influence of environmental attributes on property value. 3. Hypothetical Market 3.1 Contingent valuation method (CVM) We construct a hypothetical market in which users are asked to express their willingness to pay (WTP) for the benefits or willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for losing them 3.2 Contingent choice method (CM) We construct/design the choice set that involves with the price attribute along with different resource attributes/change in G&S then ask people to rank/rate/choose alternatives rather than explicitly express a WTP or WTA Co-benefit Non-timber products Recreation/ tourism Market price Travel cost Contingen Choice t valuation modelling Benefit transfer Water services Climate regulation Hedonic price Economic rationale is one factor (among others) that guides decision making. Costs of REDD+ include opportunity costs, implementation costs, transaction costs (set-up and other monitoring costs), and political costs. Benefits of REDD+ include monetary revenues and co-benefits of REDD+. Opportunity costs will change as relative demand and supply conditions for land use change. When the co-benefits of forests are high, the costs of REDD+ from the country’s perspective fall, and might in fact become negative (leading to more likely adoption of REDD+). There are issues about dynamics, permanence, and uncertainty related to REDD+ projects. These issues should be reflected in the project design as well as in the discount rate for a project. For basic course: 1. Benitez, Pablo (2011). The Economics of REDD+ and the Importance of Opportunity Costs Analysis. World Bank Institute. Bangkok, April 25, 2011. Available at: http://wbi.worldbank.org/wbi/Data/wbi/wbicms/files/drupalacquia/wbi/6%20-%20Economics%20of%20REDD+%20and%20OCA%20%20P.Benitez.pdf 2. Bond et al. 2009. Incentives to sustain forest ecosystem services: A review and lessons for REDD. Natural Resource Issues No. 16. International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK, with CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, and World Resources Institute, Washington D.C., USA. Available at: http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/13555IIED.pdf 3. GCP, IPAM, FFI and UNEP FI. 2014. Stimulating Interim Demand for REDD+ Emission Reductions: The Need for a Strategic Intervention from 2015 to 2020, Global Canopy Programme, Oxford, UK; the Amazon Environmental Research Institute, Brasília, Brazil; Fauna & Flora International, Cambridge, UK; and UNEP Finance Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland. For basic course (cont.): 4. Nepstad, Daniel. (2007). The Costs and Benefits of Reducing Carbon Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the Brazilian Amazon. The Woods Hole Research Center. Available at: http://www.whrc.org/policy/pdf/cop13/WHRC_Amazon_REDD.pdf 5. Pagiola, Stefano and Benoît Bosquet (2009). Estimating the Cost of REDD at the Country Level. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, World Bank. Available at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18062/1/MPRA_paper_18062.pdf 6. Peskett, L. 2011. Benefit Sharing in REDD+: Exploring the Implications for Poor and Vulnerable People. World Bank and REDD-net. 7. TEEB (2009). TEEB Climate Issues Update. 8. Union of Concerned Scientists (2011). Estimating the Cost and Potential of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation. Policy brief#1. Available at: http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_energy/Briefing-1-REDDcosts.pdf 9. UN-REDD Programme (2012). Estimating the costs of REDD+ in Tanzania: Policy Brief, April 2012. Available at: http://www.theredddesk.org/fr/node/810 For intermediate or advanced course: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Fisher, Brendan, et al (2011). “Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania”. Nature Climate Change. (advanced online publication). Available at: http://www.uvm.edu/giee/pubpdfs/Fisher_2011_Nature_Climate_Change.pdf Harja, Degi, et al (2012). REDD Abacus SP: User Manual and Software. Available at: http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/files/abacus_manual_draft.pdf Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: A Framework for Assessment. Island Press. (Ch. 6) Prasetyo, Erry (2013). Converting or Conserving the Forests: A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Implementing REDD in Indonesia. Available at: http://www.academia.edu/3532767/Converting_or_Conserving_the_Forests_A_CostBenefit_Analysis_of_Implementing_REDD_in_Indonesia UN-REDD Programme (2011). Final Report: Analysis of Opportunity Cost for REDD+ UNREDD Program, Vietnam (April 2011). Available at: http://vietnamredd.org/Upload/Download/File/UN-REDD_OCA_Final_Report_3211_4432.pdf World Bank Institute (2011). Estimating the Opportunity Costs of REDD+ A training manual, version 1.3 (March 2011). Available at: https://www.cbd.int/financial/finplanning/gwbreddneeds.pdf