Lecture 6: Micro Origin of 911 (I) –
The Provocative Strategy
of Al-Qaeda?
17th February 2003 (Monday)
Session Arrangement
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T1: 10:00-11:00am Room 4472 [s]
T2A: 11:00-11:50am Room 1403 [k]
T2B: 11:00-11:50am Room 4472 [s]
T3A: 12:00-12:50pm Room 4472 [k]
T3B: 12:00-12:50pm Room 3301A [s]
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PLEASE FINALIZE TODAY!
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Macro Vs Micro Origins
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George W Bush:
Why do they hate us so much?
Macro Origins:
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Long-term Historical Development
Islamic Fundamentalism, Clash of Civilization, the
American Pride…
Micro Origins:
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Why was 911 arranged that way?
Why did Osama Bin Laden arrange the attack despite his
expectation of American revenge?
Laden Conspiracy; Bush Conspiracy; No Conspiracies…
Structure of Lecture 6:
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Does the Methodology of 911 Matter?
2 Possible Plans of Osama Bin Laden
Minimalist Plan: Omar Doctrine
Maximalist Plan: The Grand Strategy
Conclusion: The “Taoist Strategy”
PART I
Does the Methodology of 911
Matter?
Alternatives of 911
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Assassination of President?
Overseas Bombing?
Ally with Anti-American Powers?
Self-strengthening Movement?
Cultural/ Psychological Attack?
Does Methodology Matter?
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Doesn’t matter: The Invisible Hands
Theory
Does matters: The Marxist History
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Capitalism  Imperialism  Socialism
Class Consciousness against Exploiters
Some Yes, Some No
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Short-term Vs Long-term History
We Can’t Truly Understand the Planners:
Goals of the Decision-makers
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Type 1: Goals on Paper
Type 2: Goals by Research
Type 3: Conspiracy Theories
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Goals not-researchable
The American Conspiracy Theory
The Al-Qaeda Conspiracy Theory
Goals of Al-Qaeda: Which Level?
PART II
Goals of Osama Bin Laden:
Goals by Research or by Conspiracy?
Assigned Readings
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Main Text: Walter Laqueur: “Left,
Right, and Beyond – the Changing
Face of Terror” (H&R P.71-82)
Supplementary Text: Tariq Ali: The
Clash of Fundamentalisms.
Chapter 20: The September
Surprise. (P.290-302).
The Minimal Argument
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Laden has more capabilities:
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Unconventional Weapons
Jihad
The Trend of Escalation
“HK Military Expert”: “more to come”
Aim: To drive America out of the Middle
East
The Maximal Argument
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Laden has no more capabilities:
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Pentagon (e.g. Wesley Clark):
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The Vacuum of US Intelligence
Eradication of Al-Qaeda
Headquarters
Lacking in Mass Destruction
Weapons
No more of the same scale
Aim: to change the world
PART III From Minimalism –
The “Omar Doctrine”
Precedence: Monroe Doctrine (1825)
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Latin America (Central + South
America)
America’s Sphere of Interest
End of Napoleonic War (1815)
 End of Spanish Colonial Empire
(1820s)
President James Monroe:
“America is America’s America”
(1825)
The “Omar Doctrine”
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“If American wants to root out
terrorism and intimidation, then it
should withdraw its force from the
Gulf and demonstrate neutrality over
the issue of Palestine.”
-- Omar, Head of Taliban (Sept 24 2001)
Message from the Omar Doctrine
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“Middle East is Islam’s Middle East”
Osama Bin Laden’s Video Speeches
Omar instead of Laden:
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Victim Vs Aggressor
PART IV From Maximalism –
Grand Strategy of Al Qaeda
“Grand Strategy”
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Professor Paul Kennedy:
“Grand Strategy” in Cold War
“War of Unlimited Boundaries” by Chinese
Provocative Strategy
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The strategy to unite the whole world against
the United States
To provoke the Americans at 911
The Americans will fight back in an insane
manner and angered the whole world
OBL Step 1: Hysteria of America
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Human Loss/ Civilian Loss
Vs Military Loss/ Assassination
Hysteria of Mass Opinion
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Getting out from the Vietnam War Shadow
Hysteria of Government
Extremist Foreign Policies
Patriotism, Marginalization of Leftists
New McCarthyism against the Muslims…
OBL Step 2:
Alienation of Arabic Allies
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Sentiments of Muslims 
Unification
Crisis of Pro-Western Arabic
Governments
Coups d’etat?
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Saudi Arabia: the money
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Crown Prince Abdullah’s Dilemma
Pakistan: the nuclear arsenal
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General Pervez Musharraf:
Military Dictatorship by American
Endorsement + Popular Election
OBL Step 3:
Alienation of Western Allies
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Genuine Anti-war Movements
Convince American Allies of the “Next
Step of America”: towards its allies as
well
Neutralization of the Western Bloc
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France: UN Veto power; The
Uncompromising History…
Germany: Real Leader of Europe…
Turkey: Internal Security Concern…
OBL Step 4:
Revolution of World Order
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Anti-Americanism as a New Culture:
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Experience of Cultural Revolution in
China:
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Message from the Anti-war
Demonstration
Message from the Internet
From “Great Disorder” to the “Great
Order”
Assumptions under Chaos Theory
2001-2003: Successful?
PART V
Conclusion – Lessons from
Chinese Philosophy
Osama Bin Laden:
Benefit of the Doubt
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A “Calculative Planner”:
the planner who can see the outcome
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Computer Simulation/ RISK
McArthur: I’ll be Back!
A “Messianic Planner”:
the planner who can’t see the
outcome -
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“Statements of Wisdom”
Jesus: fall of Roman Empire
Taoism in International Relations
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Philosophy of Lao Zi’s Tao Te
Jing:
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“The Way can be told is not the
Way.” (Cp.1)
“The Weak conceal its ability to
overcome the Strong.” (Cp.36)
Osama Bin Laden: Invite the
American Invasion under
Taoism?
Analogy of the Business World
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Stock Market
Unfriendly bid by small potatoes 
Hysterias fight back by Tycoons 
Chain Effects: sympathy/ allies/ overreach of
tycoons… favorable to small potatoes
Revolution of Stock Market
…Laden’s Grand Strategy
An
Unfinished Story
Patience!
~~The End~~
Thank you for attending