MODEL ACADEMIC CURRICULUM
MODULE 5
Crime Theories and
Crime Opportunity
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Module 5 Topics
• The Problem Analysis Triangle
• Routine Activities Theory
• Crime Pattern Theory
• Rational Choice Theory
• 10 Principles of Crime Opportunity
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Traditional Criminology
• Focuses on criminals and why they are criminals (e.g.,
biology, sociology, culture, etc.)
• Personal and social factors are beyond the reach of
everyday police practice
• Most traditional theories focus on motivations but ignore
opportunity, victim and environment
• Ignores the opportunities required for a crime event to
occur
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Focus of New Crime Theories
• Crime, not criminality
• Events, not dispositions
• Near, not distant causes of crime
• How crime occurs, not why it happens
• Situational and opportunity factors
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The Problem Analysis Triangle
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The Complete Problem
Analysis Triangle
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Offender Handlers
• Offenders are strongly influenced by
people that matter:
– Parents
– Spouses
– Peers
– Teachers/Coaches
– Probation Officers
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Place Managers
• Places are sometimes watched and
managed by caretakers:
– Homeowners and long-term renters
– Building Superintendent
– Bartender, managers and owners
– Street Venders
– Train Station Managers
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Target/Victim Guardians
• A target is property and
a victim is a person
• People can protect and
oversee themselves,
their belongings, or
those of family, friends
and coworkers
• Guardians also include
public police and
private security
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Theoretical Foundations of POP
• Routine Activities Theory: A crime may occur when
a Likely Offender and Suitable Target come
together in Space and Time in the absence of
Capable Guardians
• Crime Pattern Theory: Crimes have a tendency to
cluster based on routine activities
• Rational Choice Theory: Offenders commit crime
based on an assessment of benefits and risks
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Elements of
Routine Activity Theory
• A suitable target is available.
• There is a lack of a capable guardian
to prevent the crime from happening.
• A motivated offender is present.
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So, for a crime to occur:
...a motivated offender must find a
suitable target in the absence of a
capable guardian...
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Motivated Offenders
• Why People Commit Crime
– Gain/Need
• Poverty or a drug habit
– Society/Experience/Environment
• Peer pressure, coercion, lack of education
– Beliefs
• Belief that some crimes aren’t wrong, protest
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Absence of a Capable Guardian
• A capable guardian is anything, either a
person or thing, that discourages crimes
from taking place. These can be formal or
informal.
– Police Patrols
– Security Guards
– Locks
– Fences
– Lighting
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A Suitable Target
• A Person
• An Object
• A Place
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VIVA
Value, Inertia, Visibility, Access
• Value - The offender must either value the target
for what they gain or value the effect they have
on it.
• Inertia - The size or weight of an item can effect
how suitable it is.
• Visibility - How visible a target is can affect its
suitability.
• Access - If a target is easy to get to, this
increases its suitability.
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CRAVED
• Not all products are equally at risk for theft
• They must be:
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Concealable
Removable
Available
Valuable
Enjoyable
Disposable
• CRAVED items can
also change over time
(CDs then vs. IPODs
now)
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In-Class Exercise
• Identify examples of potential targets
within each CRAVED category.
• List some steps that might be taken to
reduce the desirability of these items.
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Crime Pattern Theory
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Incident Clusters
• Behaviors. Certain behaviors are common to the
incidents.
• Places. Certain places can be common to
incidents.
• Persons. Certain individuals or groups of people
can be common to incidents.
• Times. Certain times can be common to incidents.
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Clustering of Crime/Criminals
• Repeat offenders focusing on different
targets at different places
• Repeat victims repeatedly attacked by
different offenders at different places
• Repeat places (or “hot spots”) involving
different offenders and different targets
interacting at the same place
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The 80-20 Rule
Generally, a small number of things are responsible for a
large proportion of outcomes.
• For example, a small number of hurricanes account for a
large amount of the overall damage.
• Similarly, small numbers of offenders (20%) are
responsible for a large number (80%) of the crimes; or,
20% of the victims may account for 80% of the
victimizations; or, 20% of places are the locations for
80% of the crimes.
• The percentages vary by the particular problem, but the
rule is important because crime is highly concentrated on
particular people, places, and things.
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Does the 80-20 Rule Apply?
• Repeat Offenders
• Repeat Targets/Victims (Hot Products)
• Repeat Places or Hot Spots (Risky
Facilities)
• Repeat Times – crimes may also be
concentrated in time (e.g., DWI on Friday
nights).
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Rational Choice Theory
•
Decisions to offend are constrained by time, cognitive ability
and information
•
“Perceptions” of the situation and of risks and rewards is more
important that actual circumstances
•
Decisions vary by the different stages of the offense and
among different offenders
•
Individuals who are not normally “criminals” may choose to
offend based on the perceived risks and rewards
•
If offenders choose to commit crimes based on a number of
factors, then those factors can be altered to discourage them
from choosing to offend
•
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Crime in many circumstances is not inevitable!!
Crime Opportunities & Decisions
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Opportunity Theory Principle
“Opportunity Makes the Thief”
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10 Principles of Crime Opportunity
1. Opportunities play a role in causing all crime, not
just common property crime.
2. Crime opportunities are highly specific.
3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and
space.
4. Crime opportunities depend on everyday
movements of activity.
5. One crime produces the opportunities for
another.
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10 Principles of Crime Opportunity
6.
Some products offer more tempting crime
opportunities.
7.
Social and technological changes produce new crime
opportunities.
8.
Crime can be prevented by reducing opportunities.
9.
Reducing opportunities does not usually displace
crime.
10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider
declines in crime.
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Conclusion
• Opportunity has been neglected in criminology
• Personal and social variables are important but difficult for police to
address
• Crime is a product of interactions between people and their environment
• Opportunity theory enhances prevention by focusing as much on targets
and guardians as on the offender
• Displacement rarely becomes a problem
• Crime opportunity deals with one of the most important and controllable
contributing factors of crime, which is the decision to commit crime
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In-Class Exercise
• While the opportunity to commit crimes exists for
everyone at some point and time in their lives,
many choose not engage in criminal activity.
Discuss the factors that contribute to most
people’s decision not to engage in the following
crimes:
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Shoplifting
Theft from a parked vehicle
Assault in a bar
Tax fraud
Drinking under age
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Campus/Local Area Exercise
• This exercise may have to be adapted depending on the nature of the
campus or setting.
• Partner with another person, go to the parking lot, and document the
contents and condition of one another’s vehicle. Include:
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Name of fellow student
Make, model, year, color of vehicle
Crime prevention devices available
Crime prevention devices in use (e.g., locks, alarms, clubs)
Property in the vehicle in view
Other observations about the vehicle
• You will document your observations of your fellow student’s vehicle
and rate it from 1 to 10 on crime prevention vulnerability/opportunity —
1 being not very vulnerable and 10 being very vulnerable to crime.
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