Chapter 16 ExportOriented Growth in East Asia Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter Objectives • Understand the causes of strong and sustained economic growth in East Asia • Analyze the factors underlying East Asia´s 1997 economic and financial crisis • Discuss the recovery of the East Asian economies Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-2 Introduction • In contrast to Latin America, East Asia has long enjoyed – Macroeconomic stability – Income equality – Skilled workforce – Export orientation Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-3 Key Terms • The High Performance Asian Economies (HPAE): Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand • The Four Tigers: Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan • The Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs): a number of Asian and Latin American economies Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-4 TABLE 16.1 Population and GDP for the High Growth Asian Economies, 2005 Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-5 TABLE 16.2 Average Annual Growth in Real GDP per Person, 1980–2005 Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-6 General Characteristics of Growth in the HPAEs • Falling inequality • Accumulation of physical and human capital • Sound macroeconomic fundamentals • Promotion of exports Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-7 TABLE 16.3 Measures of Income Distribution, East Asia and Latin America Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-8 Accumulation of Physical and Human Capital • HPAEs have high rates of investment thanks to high savings rates, which stem from – Rapid accumulation of physical capital – Stable financial institutions – Absence of high inflation – Demographic transition—shift to low death and birth rates – Rapid rate of income growth Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-9 TABLE 16.4 The Share of HPAEs in World Exports, 1965–2000 Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-10 Stable Macroeconomic Environments • HPAEs kept budget deficits and foreign debt within the limits of the ability of the government to finance without having to print money or borrow excessively – Low inflation rates helped keep interest rates stable, enabled firms to take a long-term view on their investments • The crisis of 1997 proves the rule: significant reduction in export earnings and growth of current account deficits in some HPAE countries Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-11 The Institutional Environment • In the HPAEs, large flows of savings were channelled into the financial system, which lent them to businesses that used them efficiently • Moreover, governmental rules fostered efficient economic outcomes Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-12 Features of HPAEs’ Institutional Environment • Reliable property rights – – – – Bureaucracies are competent Contracts are enforced Access to information is wide-spread Regulations are clear and well-publicized • Deliberation councils: quasi-legislative bodies set up by six HPEA governments that bring together representatives from the private and the public sectors to coordinate the information flow between businesses and policymakers Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-13 The Role of Industrial Policies • Government interventions are common in three areas in HPEAs – Targeting of specific industries – Direct credit – Export promotion • Let’s analyze industrial policies in greater detail… Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-14 Targeting of Specific Industries • Targeted industrial policies: efforts to alter a country’s industrial structure and thus change its comparative advantages through channelling resources to certain industries – Also seen as the government’s picking winners and losers Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-15 Targeting of Specific Industries (cont.) • Six key tools of targeting – Restrictions on imports: licensing, quotas, tariffs, export subsidies – Direct credit: funds to an industry – Subsidies – Market information (especially foreign markets) – Infrastructure construction – Research and development funds Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-16 Targeting of Specific Industries (cont.) • Targeted industrial policies are distinct from other efforts to promote specific industries – Resources provided only as long as the companies receiving them met specific export targets – Governments placed macroeconomic stability above industrial policies Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-17 Results of Targeting • Disagreement – World Bank: Export promotion and directed credit did boost economic growth, but industrial policies in general did not – Critics: It is impossible to know what growth rates would have been without industrial policies Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-18 Results of Targeting (cont.) • Agreement that successful industrial policies have – Clear performance criteria such as export targets – Institutional means to monitor and enforce compliance – Low costs in order for nontargeted sectors not to suffer Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-19 Promotion of Manufactured Exports • Production of exports has several advantages – Make possible the purchase of imported inputs that can make firms more competitive – In the case of HPEAs, the need to meet export targets helped encourage FDI and the acquisition of new technologies Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-20 Promotion of Manufactured Exports (cont.) • However, promotion of exports results in greater GDP growth only if – There is something in the promoted production process or its links to the rest of economy that is absent from domestic-oriented production – Exports speed up the adoption of international best practices Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-21 Is Export Promotion a Good Model? • Yes: Even if all developing countries stressed export promotion, they would be unlikely to saturate the industrialized country markets • No: Under the Uruguay Round rules of 1994, developing countries must eliminate any subsidies contingent on export performance in eight years Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-22 Is There an Asian Model of Economic Growth? • East Asian growth is remarkable for its growth in per capita income and in labor productivity – Labor productivity depends on additional amount of capital, education, and total factor productivity (TPF)—issues related to new technologies, innovation, and organizational improvements • Research conclusion: the bulk of East Asian growth is attributable to increases in capital and education, rather than TFP Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-23 Chapter 16 Additional Chapter Art Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. TABLE 16.5 Imports and Exports as a Share of GDP Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-25 TABLE 16.6 Free Trade Areas in Asia and Oceania Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-26 TABLE 16.7 Sources of Growth, 1960–1994 (Percent) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-27 High-Performance Asian Economies (HPAEs) Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 16-28