Hard Times in Lives:
From Great Depression
to Great Recession
Glen H. Elder, Jr.
Carolina Population Center
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
http://www.unc.edu/~elder
Studying Hard Times in Lives
Middletown, USA
What about “enduring
effects?” Limitations
of a survey
Marienthal, Austria
A new kind of study
launched in the 1920-30s;
longitudinal in design. A
kind of “Hubble telescope
of the social sciences.”
Basic Model:
Children of the Great Depression
Relative Economic Deprivation (‘29 vs. ‘33)
In Middle & Working Classes (’29)
Family Adaptations and Change, 1930-40s
Impact on Children & Adolescents
Adult Life Course
1940s – 80s
Adult Behavior & Personality
1960s – 80s
Oakland and Berkeley cohort
members by age at historical events
Age of cohort members
Date
Event
Oakland Berkeley
1929-30
Onset of Great Depression
9-10
1-2
1932-33
Crisis of Great Depression
11-13
3-5
1937-38
Economic Slump
16-18
8-10
1941-45
World War II
20-23
10-12
1974
End of affluent age
54-
46-
A Footnote on Emerging Debt Pattern
“Way of Life” 1920s – 2009
• 1920s – Paul Douglas’ Observation – Growth of this
way of life
• Depression consequences of indebtedness – loss of
home, car
• Post WWII – Credit cards – Diners, American
Express, etc.
• Popularity of credit card purchases
Origins of Agricultural Crisis, USA;
1970-1995
• Rising world-wide demand for food. Inadequate
production.
• Midwest banks encourage young farmers to expand
acreage. Offer much larger loans.
• Farm expansion – “from hedgerow to hedgerow.”
• Embargo of grain shipments to Soviet Union, 1979-80
• Economic crisis in farm belt – housing starts and
retail sales decline by 55%. Farm bankruptcies soar.
Farm foreclosure sale in Iowa [65684(8)]. 1933.
Retrieved July 21, 2009 from the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum
website. http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/images/photodb/27-0851a.gif.
Building Permits Issued in Study Area,
Des Moines, and the U.S. (1977=100)
120%
Source: U.S. Census
100%
U.S.
Percent
80%
Des Moines
60%
40%
Study Area
20%
0%
1977
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
Hard times 1994, view of a grandmother: “It’s been hard for a lot of
our families these last years, and I don’t see it really getting any
better.”
Iowa Youth and Family Study
Design: 451 families with 7th grader and near sibling.
Located in 8 counties in Iowa – excellent farmland. 1st
Wave – 1989, up to present.
Iowa Youth and Family Study
Sample composition:
Full-time farm
20%
Part-time farm
10%
Displaced farm
10%
Family ties to
the land
Farm-reared only 35%
Non-farm
25%
Main story re children’s lives:
Attachment to land
Social Ties
Social well-being,
competence, and educational success.
Children of the Great Recession:
Some Perspectives
• Contextual variation – east to west, north to south, and rural
to urban (e.g. southern Florida vs. the Carolina Research
Triangle). Regional vs. family economic troubles – effects
on both levels.
• What people bring to the new situation (in particular,
context) – temperament, marital ties, gender, life stage.
• Alternatives at school leaving – extend education, be
entrepreneurial, travel, temporary job.
• Double up with parents and sibs, or friends.
• Learn to “get along with less.”
glen_elder@unc.edu
http://www.unc.edu/~elder