Carleton University
Department of Economics
ECON 3510: African Economic Development
Grading Guide: MID-TERM EXAM
Instructor: A. Ritter
May 30. 2012
Part I: Answer one (1) of the following questions
40%
1. How relevant are the “Malthusian” population theory and the “Theory of the
Demographic Transition” in an explanation of the demographic experience of SubSaharan Africa over the last 40 years or so? (Include in your answer very brief
summaries of the theories as well as explanations of their relevance or lack thereof.)
The Malthus Approach: [Class notes and text, 101-103]
 People had an powerful urge to procreate!
- population growth would continue at a rapid pace (“geometrical”)
- Agriculture was subject to limited land and diminishing returns.
(“arithmetic”)
- population would expand to the point where agricultural output would decline to
the subsistence level and where the “positive checks” on population growth
would operate: Famine, Disease and War.
 Result: Incomes would fall to subsistence or near starvation levels for the vast
majority of human beings.
Relevance for Africa?
Many countries have moved out of the Malthusian “trap” with deceleration of
population growth and rising incomes.
However, some countries e.g. Rwanda, Burundi, Malawi, with very high
population density, rapid population growth and stagnant incomes are in a
difficult or dangerous position, and risk getting “trapped”.
Demographic Transition Approach
A diagram like the following would be most useful here.
A brief verbal description/explanation of the Birth Rate and Death Rate functions over the
four periods:
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Phase 1: Traditional Society: High Birth and death rates and population stability;
Phase 2: Transitional phase: falling birth rate, lagging death rate leading to accelerating
population growth.
Phase 3: Transitional phase: death rate continues to fall, cathing up with the declining
birth rate, leading tp decelerating population growth;
Phase 4: “Modern Era” low birth and death rates with approximate population stability
again.
[Optional: Phase 5: further declines in birth rate leading to declining population]
Relevance for Africa:
Over time and for a variety of reasons, more or less natural and automatic forces operate
to move countries from Phase 1 towards 4.
Include some comment on the forces lowering death rates and then birth rates
A few African countries appear to be in Phase 2, with rapid population growth, not
decelerating. Some African countries have entered Phases 3; population growth slowdown is well under way. (Optional: Mauritius is almost in Phase 4.]
Central Conclusions: Over time, and with rising incomes, birth rates tend to decline for a
variety of reasons related to the “microeconomic theory of fertility”. Population balance
eventually may be re-established at low birth and death rates, i.e. Stage 4 in approach.
2. The root causes of poverty and income mal-distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa are
complex and multi-dimensional.
Outline what you consider to be the three most important general causes and explain
how they have operated to generate income mal-distribution.
[There is no good material in the text for the whole question. Pp. 53 to 60 does have good
material for the Impacts of Colonialism, however. See the Power Point notes for this
question. The student may try to answer this with the materials of Chapter 7, which would
be difficult. If they should try to do so, be generous.
The answer here should mention and explore three of the key factors noted below.]
1. Impacts of Colonialism
 Unequal property rights and institutions imposed by colonial powers
 Imperial country living standards for colonizers; traditional levels for Africans
 Public services directed at settler peoples, not indigenous peoples
 Colonial hierarchies: Social stratification based on Race and Ethnicity
2. The Nature of the “Modernization” process:
[Some discussion of the “Kuznet’s Curve could be inserted here, perhaps with a diagram.
But this is only optional.]
Forces Generating Inequalities
 “Scarce capital” generates high returns for its owners;
 Scarce skilled labour generates higher incomes for those with crucial skills;
 Abundant unskilled labour generates low wages and incomes;
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 International technological transfer: much recent vintage technology is “laboursaving,” thereby reducing the demand for labour and thus wages and incomes.
 “Backwash Effects” of “modernization” and tech. change
 Uneven access to opportunities
• Prior Elites;
• Regional Advantages;
• Personal Advantages
Forces Generating Greater Equalities
- The exhaustion of surplus labour in agriculture and the informal economy?
- Increasing productivity generally promotes rising incomes in supporting
service-type activities
- Broadening Tax Base permits social programs & welfare state type programs
- Broadening human development (education health etc.) broadens earning
capabilities
Regional and rural-urban spread effects: rising demand for goods and
services from elsewhere; linkage effects
3. Nature of Development Strategies (and Theorizing):
Early Theorizing: Capital-Centered theories, Dualistic Development Models, The Soviet
Model, Prebisch - UN ECLAC) W. W. Rostow ………….
All emphasized
• Growth first; income distribution later;
• Investment in the Modern Sector, esp. Industry;
• Import-substituting industrialization;
• Investment in physical capital
• De-emphasize traditional economy and informal sector
4. Demographic and Sociological Factors:
o “The Poor Have More Children:” large family size among the poor
 reduces family investment per child and
 reduces possible inheritances per child vis-à-vis the rich;
o Labour force participation for poor women is low vis-à-vis rich women;
 Higher female labour force participation rates for better-off women raise
family incomes for better-off groups.
o The rural poor sometimes have little alternative to damaging their own
environment, often resulting in worsening future poverty.
5. International Factors
• Multinational Enterprise: islands of modernity and higher incomes
• Technological Transfer of modern capital-intensive machinery and equipment 
higher incomes for some
• Internationally transferable skills help generate international income levels for
some, while the unskilled remain with low incomes.
6. “Neo-Liberal” or “Washington Consensus” approach focused on growth first.
• Escape from hyper-inflation, macro-economic and external sector unsustainability
and debt, led to “structural adjustment” programs
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•
which often generated “short-term pain” hopefully but not always for
“long term gain”
Part II: Answer briefly two (2) of the following questions.
[20% for each of two questions]
Total: 40%
3. Very briefly, outline the central features of the general experience of economic
growth of Sub-Saharan Africa from about 2000 to 2012. What are the central causal
forces generating this experience?
[Source: Class notes.]
The central feature: renewed economic growth on a per capita basis, following some 25
years of contraction. As a result, Africa has experienced rising per capita incomes, rising
tax revenues and government expenditures.
Central causal factors:
[Mention about 5 of the following or perhaps fewer if there is discussion in depth.]
Note that the better performance was the result of a number of forces that were mutually
reinforcing.
o Buoyant world economy promoted recovery
o primary commodity prices rose
o new drivers of growth such as increased economic relations with China and
India.
o Some debt reduction and relief from servicing the debt
o Increased development assistance
o Direct foreign investment started up (+/- 40 Billion, 2008).
o Reduced conflict in the region? (somewhat ambiguous)
o Improving Governance?
o Improved public policy
4. In your view, and speaking generally, what are the two or three central challenges
regarding education in Sub-Saharan Africa at this time. Explain.
[See class notes and Chapter 10]
[Note that a number of challenges were discussed in class. The answers could focus in
particular on what the student vies as the more serious. Among the choices would be the
following. Another challenge could be discussed if the student makes the case for it.]
o Achieving 100% primary school enrollments;
This could be mentioned, but Africa has now achieved near complete
coverage for primary school, though not necessarily eight years. It is
therefore less of a current challenge
o Equal access to education for girls and women
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o
o
o
o
o
Access to education for women lags that for men. In view of the
importance of education for everyone, achieving equal access for women
at all levels is important.
Expanding “tertiary” education (colleges, universities, training institutes)
 Higher education is vital for the provision of personnel to perform the
various functions necessary for the fulfillment of the Millennium
Development Goals.
 Major investment is needed for higher education and for tech institutes
of various kinds.
Relevance of curricula; especially in rural areas
 The academic curriculum has not been relevant to the circumstances of
the African countries. At Independence and before, the curriculum was
that used in the Colonizing country and was geared to its needs. That
has been changed by and large.
 But in rural areas, the curriculum also has been biased towards urban
activities and was of less relevance to the rural farm people and their
economy. In consequence, school graduates have left rural areas and
agriculture as they did not acquire knowledge or interests relevant to
the rural economy.
Financial and equity issues
 How should education systems be financed to ensure fairness?
 Generally, there is consensus that primary and secondary education
should be covered by public sector taxation. This is done largely in
most countries, though at the secondary level, there are costs to the
family.
 The question of fairness arises mainly at the University level, where
costs per student are high and the degree of student subsidization has
been immense. How should Universities be financed?
 What should be the balance of expenditures among the three levels?
Striking the right “Balance” among primary, secondary and tertiary education
Improving quality
 Rapid expansion of educational systems at all levels has meant that
quality was often sacrificed. How to improve quality is thus a major
problem.
 To meet this challenge will require:
 Increased resource allocations (from Taxation via economic
growth)
 Better teacher training;
 Better salaries to incentivate good full-time work
 Improve ability of children to learn e.g (nutrition at school
sometimes)
5. Explain why fertility rates have remained particularly high in Sub-Saharan Africa,
remaining at 5.1 on average in 2007 and as high as 7.0 for some countries.
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[Text pp. 104-105 and class notes]
Among the factors that could be mentioned are the following.
[Some five or so could be mentioned or perhaps fewer with some discussion in depth]
• Children are still utilized as family labour force, especially in rural areas;
• Continuing rural character of society: children have a more important economic
role to play in agriculture and rural areas,
• Children as old age security
• Intergenerational wealth transfers: transfers of wealth from working children to
their parents strengthens the incentive to have more children
• Relevance of access to electricity and consumer stuff, especially in rural areas
• Education for women: age of marriage and opportunity costs of having children
• Presence of contraception and abortion: the high cost of these reduces their
availability for low-income people
• Religion. In some areas, there may be religious aversion to birth control, thereby
promoting higher fertility rates.
6. Very briefly, outline the ways in which the colonialism shaped Africa’s subsequent
economic development experience. [Text pp. 56-59]
The colonial experience shaped African societies in a variety of ways.
[Some of the following could be mentioned and discussed briefly. All these and perhaps
others could be referred to or a few perhaps two or three could be discussed in greater
depth.]
o Slavery, to begin with, had a devastating impact on African societies, for
fairly obvious reasons;
o Language: the colonial languages are now the main international languages of
Africa, including English, French, and Portuguese.
o National Boundaries: The colonial powers at the 1885 Berlin Conference
divided the continent between them. The boundaries have continued largely
unchanged.
o The transportation grid, most notably the railways, was designed mainly to
move resources from mines and fields to the coast rather than integrating the
continent. This pattern continues to a significant extent.
o In equitable social structures and patterns of income distribution were
implanted by the colonial regimes and have had a powerful momentum into
the present.
Part III. Please define and state the significance of two (2) of the following terms
[10% for each of two questions
Total: 20%]
(a) “Poverty Trap”
From class notes: There are a number of “Poverty Traps” and Interacting Vicious
Circles such as the following;
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[One or two of these can be discussed in literary form, or with the little symbols that
I used in class.]
Low YLow SLow ILow K StockLow Y….
Economic ContractionLower IncomeDeclining TaxesDeclining Public
Expenditure Worsening Infrastructure, Health, Education Further Economic
Contraction…….
Weak HealthIneffective WorkLowYPoor NutritionPoor Health………
(b) “Microeconomic Theory of Fertility”
[Source: Class notes]
The decision to have children is based mainly on the parents’ estimates of costs and
benefits of having children.
The possible benefits of having children:
o ‘Consumption’ benefits
o Old-age security
o Expected income from child labour
Costs of additional children:
o Opportunity cost of Mothers’ time
o Opportunity and actual costs of educating, & looking after children
Policy implication: To reduce fertility rates change the costs and the benefits!
(c) “Population Pyramid.” Draw an approximate population pyramid for a typical
African country that has experienced population growth of 2% to 3% per year for
the last 30 years. Explain its shape as well as the significance of its shape.
[Class notes]
The diagram should look something like this, labeled correctly:
Explanation : High fertility or birth rate generate a rapidly expanding base as each
new youth cohort expands.
Significance:
 The population is “young” on average; many children few old folks;
relatively small people in labour force years.
 Large numbers of people coming into the labour force each year;
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
High dependency burden;
(d) The “Berlin Conference” of 1884-1885.
[Source: Class notes and p. 58]
Meeting of heads of state of European powers plus USA;
Divided Africa into colonies to be shared among them
Arbitrary boundaries;
Very limited information;
No concern for interests and wishes of African peoples which were not
represented at the conference
Significance:
Set national boundaries for the future;
Boundaries often make little sense on the ground;
Boundaries are still sacrosanct and have been changed virtually not at all,
due to risks of chaotic national break-ups and ethnic mini-states
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