Assessment of Cambodia’s Statistics Capacity Prepared by Zia Abbasi IMF Multi-sector Statistics Advisor, Cambodia for the International Conference on Improving Statistics for Measuring Development Results June 4-5, 2003 World Bank Headquarters, Washington, D.C. Contents Executive Summary 2 I. Introduction and Context 3 II. Statistics Capacity Development, 1993 to 2002 7 III. Recent Statistics Capacity Development Initiatives 11 IV. Key Data Issues 13 V. Measuring Data Quality and Statistics Capacity 18 1 Executive Summary The paper attempts to provide a broad assessment of Cambodia’s current statistics capacity, with an emphasis on the prerequisites of quality and data quality issues in general, as part of Cambodia’s input to the International Conference on Improving Statistics for Measuring Development Results, June 4-5, 2003, hosted by the World Bank in Washington, D.C. An assessment of Cambodia’s statistics capacity, especially data quality issues, requires an appreciation of the Cambodian context. The paper sets this context by providing a broad overview of the current state of socio-economic development in Cambodia, the current legal and institutional environment, and resources available to government for official statistics. The paper then focuses on statistics capacity development in Cambodia between 1993 and 2002, noting that much has been achieved in terms of improvements in the coverage, quality and range of economic and socio-demographic statistics. The significant financial and technical assistance of bilateral donors and international organizations in achieving these outcomes is also acknowledged. This is followed by a discussion on recent developments and planned initiatives to further improve Cambodia’s statistics capacity and the availability, quality and dissemination of official statistics over the medium-term. Key data issues are identified, including the need to: ensure the independence of official statistics; the financial and institutional autonomy of the National Institute of Statistics (NIS); regular and user driven data collection; effective coordination and integration of statistical activities; implementation of quality frameworks and other statistical standards; regular and timely dissemination of comparable and comprehensive official statistics; and significant overall capacity strengthening across the NIS and other statistics units within government. The final section discusses the measuring of data quality and statistics capacity for Cambodia’s official statistics. Cambodia is progressively implementing the General Data Dissemination (GDDS) framework and completed its first annual GDDS review in January 2003. The findings have been generally positive, with reasonable progress having been made in implementing short-term plans. While not formally adopted, the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) is being used to assess and improve the quality of macroeconomic statistics. The Review of Statistics Capacity in Cambodia, conducted in early 2002, was a reasonably comprehensive review comparing Cambodia’s statistics capacity and operations with international good practice. The draft PARIS21 Statistical Capacity Building Indicators Questionnaire (2002) was also used to evaluate capacity as at the end of 2001. The results were released by the Cambodian authorities in the Review Report. An update of the questionnaire for 2003 is provided in the attachment. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2 I. Introduction and Context 1. The aim of this paper is provide a broad assessment of Cambodia’s current statistics capacity, with an emphasis on the prerequisites of quality and data quality issues in general, as part of Cambodia’s input to the International Conference on Improving Statistics for Measuring Development Results, June 4-5, 2003, hosted by the World Bank in Washington, D.C. 2. An assessment of Cambodia’s statistics capacity, especially data quality, requires an appreciation of the current state of socio-economic development, as well as an understanding of the legal and institutional environment and resources available to government for official statistics. 3. Cambodia has one of the lowest economic, environment and social development performances in the region. Cambodia is a small economy, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2001 of around US$ 2.6 billion and a per capita income of US$ 197 per annum. While GDP growth has averaged around 6 percent per annum in recent years, GDP per capita has only averaged around 3 percent. The economic base is still mainly dependent on agriculture, fisheries and forestry. The agriculture sector accounts for around 40 percent of GDP. The industry sector accounts for around 22 percent of GDP, with the textiles, garments and footwear industries accounting for 50 percent of the sector. The services sector accounts for the remainder of GDP and is largely driven by the tourism industry. Most of the economic growth since 1996 has been due to the growth in the textiles, garments and footwear industries. The removal of preferential status and quotas in 2005 for this industry makes the medium-term economic growth prospects for Cambodia very uncertain. 4. An estimated 200,000 new jobseekers join the labour force each year and most employed persons are multiple jobholders. The underemployment rate is estimated to have grown from 28 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in 2001. Nearly 80 percent of employed persons work in the agriculture sector and most of these are subsistence farmers. While consumer price inflation is estimated to have been stable at around 2-3 percent in recent years, the Riel has continued to depreciate against the currencies of major trading partners, though only slightly at around 1 percent per annum against the US dollar. 5. Cambodia’s Human Development Index score of 0.543 ranks it 130th out of 173 countries internationally, and the worst but one in Southeast Asia. Cambodia has high poverty rates (estimated at around 36 percent), significant gender inequality, and access to effective education and health services are extremely poor. It also has one of the highest prevalence rates for HIV/AIDS, with an estimated 164,000 persons living with the condition out of a population of 13.5 million. There is no effective welfare system or aged care services. Child labour is significant, with just under 53 percent of children between the ages of 5 and 17 years of age are working. Roughly 3 out 10 of these children work in the industry and services sectors. 3 6. From an environment and natural resources perspective, extensive overexploitation of Cambodia’s fisheries and forests has taken place over the last decade. The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) recognizes the need for effective fisheries and forestry management in future years in order for these industries to survive in the long-term. Agricultural land use has expanded considerably over this time, in line with the population growth. However, resources have not been available to improve irrigation systems and over 80 percent of agriculture is rainfall dependent. 7. Given the high levels of poverty and the various tax exemptions and concessions given to businesses in the industry sector, the potential revenue base for the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) is very small. Domestic revenue in 2002 was estimated at 12.8 percent of GDP or US$ 454 million, accounted for 70 percent of the budget. A third of domestic revenue came from non-tax revenue and privatisation sales. Foreign financing in the form of aid, grants and soft loans accounted for the remainder of the budget. Customs and excise duties accounted for 66 percent of tax revenue. If Cambodia is successful in joining the World Trade Organization in 2003, revenue from customs duties are likely to decline in future years. 8. At present, annual appropriation for official statistics is estimated at around US$ 1.5 million or 0.2 percent of the budget. Of this, the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) has an annual appropriation of around $427,300 or 0.07 percent of the budget. No RGC statistics unit, including the NIS, has independent budget allocations. The heads of government agencies makes all appropriation decisions regarding official statistics. 9. Compounding the issue of the need for adequate and autonomous appropriations for official statistics is the legal and institutional environment. The NIS and the few established RGC statistics units do not have the legal and institutional perquisites to collect the range of quality statistics required to monitor and measure development results. There is currently no crosscutting statistics legislation to provide the legal basis for official statistics and there are no statistics regulations to effectively define the roles, rights and obligations of data collectors, providers and users. Similarly, there is currently no clear demarcation between official national and sector statistics and other management information needed to monitor government operations, services and outcomes. 10. In the past decade, Cambodia has progressively been moving from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, resulting in significant change in on all spheres of Cambodian society. This shift has resulted in the dismantling of central planning and decentralization of decision-making in relation to government operations, a high level of privatization, as well as opportunities for the private sector to grow. The central role of the Ministry of Planning (MOP) in economic management and central planning for the provision of government services has increasingly been devolved to the Ministry of Economy of Finance (MEF) and various other line ministries. However, this process has also led to the dismantling of data coordination mechanisms and centralized management information within government. 4 11. As a result, most government agencies have been responsible for the development of management information and statistics relating to their respective areas of responsibility for most of the past decade. This decentralization has had a significant impact on Cambodia’s official statistics. The NIS, as the national statistical institution, is the only statistical unit that has statistics as its sole function. In all other government agencies, the statistical function is combined with other functions (e.g. planning, policy and program formulation and monitoring, research and analysis). This has invariably led to the development of official statistics being given a lower priority. Government agencies are highly autonomous and virtually all decisions on statistics priorities, resources, coordination and information sharing are routinely made at the highest levels within these agencies. 12. Similarly, coordination between donors assisting the RGC in different sectors has not been as effective as it could have been. Donors have tended to work with one government agency and provided financing and technical assistance (TA), covering program development, implementation, evaluation, and statistics to that agency. Statistics have generally been collected, compiled and produced without taking the needs of the wider user community outside the relevant sector into account. The government agencies involved have tended to monopolize the TA support provided, and the role of NIS in producing national statistics and its statistics collection and processing capacity has often been overlooked. Although there have been a few notable exceptions, such as the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey. 13. Another factor is that donors tend to support the production of statistics of specific interest to them. As a result, the development of official statistics has been variable across sectors and limited for core national statistics, depending on the number of donors interested and the level of TA provided. Agriculture, education, health, population and poverty statistics have attracted more TA support than macroeconomic, industry, services, environment, natural resource and other social statistics. 14. As significant gaps have appeared in official statistics, non-government organizations have stepped in to conduct their own surveys and to produce statistics. As a result, a significant proportion of Cambodia’s statistical activities are currently undertaken by these organizations, although most of the statistics produced are sector or project specific and at sub-national levels. 15. The developments discussed above have resulted in: Statistical activities being largely donor driven; An absence of statistical capacity in a number of ministries and institutions; Limited financial, computing and technical capacity for statistical activities in other ministries and institutions; Statistical activities being further decentralized within ministries; Statistics not being viewed as a desirable career by civil servants; Civil servants with low levels of statistical skills and few development options; 5 Limited levels of statistical coordination, often resulting in duplication in data collection and the production of alternative measures of the same statistical aggregates; Inadequate protection of information provided by individual businesses and households; Lower levels of cooperation by data providers, resulting in low response rates and poorer quality data being collected; Data user consultations being largely limited to donors and other data users within the sector for which statistics are being produced; Data sources not meeting the needs of national accountants and balance of payments statisticians; A general lack of quality assurance of statistical data and processes; Most sector statistics being subject to ministerial approval before release; Development of sector statistics that do not conform with national or international good practice or standards; Statistics that are generally not accurate or reliable; Significant gaps in data on key areas of economic, environment and social development; Generally poor timeliness and inadequate periodicity; and Most statistics and related metadata not being readily accessible by other government institutions and ministries or the public. 16. In order to understand the environment in which Cambodia’s official statistics are being developed, it is important to consider not only the issues constraining supply but also the demand for these statistics. While decentralization has led to an increased demand within each government agency for statistics and management information at the sector level to monitor operations and outcomes relevant to the agency, the coordination and integration of this information at the center has not kept pace with developments. However, the demand by data users for cross-sector national statistics has increased significantly over the years. 17. In following up on the Millennium Declaration, Cambodia has launched several initiatives to meet its global and national commitment to fight extreme poverty, including several institutional reforms. The National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) builds upon a policy stance of economic growth and poverty reduction. The reform agenda of the RGC essentially focuses on a deepening of economic reforms and macroeconomic stability, including fiscal and monetary reforms, trade and investment promotion, administrative reforms, military demobilization, and improved fishery and forestry management. The RGC has identified four priority sectors: education, health, rural development and agriculture, and major programs of economic and social infrastructure development are underway. A Governance Action Plan has been prepared with a set of actions to be taken to enhance governance in key areas such as judicial and legal system, anti-corruption and public finance. 18. With the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), NPRS and various economic, fiscal and monetary reform initiatives, the demand for official statistics has increased 6 substantially. An integrated and relevant national statistical system is therefore an important component of overall reforms. High standard and quality statistics are needed to capture economic growth, poverty reduction, as well as other dimensions of social development (e.g. gender equality, education and literacy, health and nutrition) and related demographic, economic, social, and natural resources statistics. II. Statistics Capacity Development 19. Despite the concerns raised above, it should also be recognized that much has been achieved in recent years. The quality and coverage of economic and sociodemographic statistics have gradually improved. A significant number of donor-led statistical projects have been undertaken. 20. The NIS, with International Monetary Fund (IMF) TA, facilitated the Royal Government’s official adoption of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) framework in January 2002. The GDDS framework is being progressively implemented. The NIS has also made a number of other improvements, with TA from the ADB, ESCAP, IMF, JICA, UNDP, UNFPA, World Bank and other donors. The main achievements and improvements in official statistical infrastructure in recent years include: A Statistics Obligations Sub-decree to facilitate the conduct of the 1998 Population Census; A draft Statistics Law that has been passed by the Council of Ministers; Draft statistics regulations (i.e. the Sub-decree on Statistics Obligations, Roles, and Responsibilities); A Sub-decree to collect balance of payments statistics released by the National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) in 2002; The NIS Strategic Plan 2002-2006 and NIS Forward Work Program 2003-2007, released in July 2002; A number of statistics reviews in relation to capacity building and training, work program planning and monitoring, dissemination and website development, organization, and other statistical prerequisites; A Statistics Capacity Building Workshop, conducted in October 2002; and Several statistics financing and technical assistance proposals submitted to ADB, AUSAID, DFID, SIDA, UNDP, and World Bank. 21. A number of reports have been prepared and released, including: Review of Statistics Legislation (January 2002); NIS Training Program Review (February 2002); NIS Training Strategy (March 2002); NIS Organization Structure Review (April 2002) and draft NIS Structure, Roles and Functions Report (April 2003); NIS Dissemination and Pricing Policy (July 2002); Statistical Capacity Building for Cambodia’s Official Statistics (June 2002); Statistics Capacity Building Workshop Outcomes Report (November 2002) and the NBC Statistics Department Structure Review (February 2003). 7 22. Several bilateral and international donors have assisted the NIS and a number of RGC statistics units in improving computer resources, office equipment and facilities in relation to statistics functions. 23. In terms of skills development of NIS and other agency staff, a range of TA has been provided in recent years, including: A number of computing, English and basic statistics courses, conducted with ADB and UNFPA financial assistance; A number of data collection and survey design, data analysis and output, dissemination and website development courses, conducted with the JICA/JOCV volunteers’ assistance; Balance of payments, foreign trade, national accounts, monetary and financial, and prices statistics courses, conducted with IMF TA; A significant number of NIS and other ministry staff have been trained in conducting population censuses, as well as establishment and household surveys, with assistance from various donors; Seminars for data users and senior officials on labor force, foreign trade, price statistics and national accounts statistics, conducted with IMF TA; A number of staff have attended ESCAP, IMF and SIAP statistics courses overseas; A number of statistics staff have completed tertiary studies in India, the Philippines and elsewhere, sponsored by ADB and other donors; A number of senior officials have undertaken study tours of other national statistical organizations; and On-the-job training has been provided to RGC statistical staff, with TA from ADB, ESCAP, FAO, IMF, JICA, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank, WHO and a number of bilateral donors. 24. The NIS and NBC have been proactive in ensuring the relevance and practical utility of their statistics. The NIS has ensured that all interested data users are consulted in the development of national surveys, output and dissemination. In terms of quality management, the NIS is focusing on the implementation of key aspects of the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), initially in relation to the prerequisites of quality (i.e. legal and institutional environment, resources, and quality assessment). 25. ADB, IMF and a few bilateral donors have provided TA support over the past decade on capacity building for macroeconomic, industry and other economic statistics. Annual National Accounts Statistics are produced in current and constant prices. Three Establishment Surveys (1993, 1995, and 2000) have been conducted. A quarterly Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing 18 percent of Cambodian households and a monthly Phnom Penh CPI are released on a regular and timely basis. Several Labour Force Surveys have been conducted, most recently for 2001. A limited range of monthly, quarterly and annual Foreign Trade Statistics are produced. Quarterly and annual Balance of Payments Statistics are produced on a regular and timely basis, and more recently International Investment Position Statistics (1998 to 2002) have been produced. Monthly Monetary Survey Statistics and Government Finance Statistics are also 8 produced. These statistics are broadly consistent with international classifications, concepts, definitions, and other standards. 26. A range of other economic statistics based on administrative collections are available on an annual or sub-annual basis. These include annual production statistics for agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and manufacturing; electricity and water usage; construction approvals; post and telecommunications; transport; and non-government organization expenditure. Monthly statistics on GSP exports (i.e. textiles, garments, footwear and other selected exports); tourist arrivals and departures; and Cambodian and foreign investment approvals are also produced. However, these statistics generally do not conform to international standards. 27. The ADB, ILO, UNDP, UNFPA, other UN agencies, the World Bank, and a number of bilateral donors have supported the development of demographic and social statistics. The 1998 Population Census was conducted successfully and a wide range of statistics have been released. A number of Socio-economic Surveys (1993-94, 1996, 1997 and 1999) have been conducted. A number of other household surveys have been conducted covering a range of social concerns, most recently the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey and the 2001 Child Labour Survey. As a result a wide range of sociodemographic statistics, of reasonable quality, are available to data users. These statistics are generally consistent with international classifications, concepts, definitions, and other standards. 28. A limited range of other social statistics based on administrative collections is available on an annual or sub-annual basis, for example, annual public education and health data, and sub-annual data on communicable diseases. However, these statistics generally do not conform to international standards. 29. There has been little donor support to build capacity for environment and natural resource statistics. Most administrative data collections are under-resourced and data are usually not released. No national surveys have been conducted. However, ADB has assisted the NIS in developing a draft Framework on Environment and Natural Resources Statistics 2002 and a compendium publication to be released in late 2003. 30. Improvements in dissemination capacity have resulted in official statistics being released in a range of publications, including: Customs and Excise Department Biannual Trade Statistics – HS Country by Commodity and Commodity by Country, annual, in English and Khmer Annual Trade Statistics – HS Country by Commodity and Commodity by Country, annual, in English and Khmer Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries MAFF Annual Report, annual, in English and Khmer Department of Fisheries Annual Report, annual, in English and Khmer 9 Ministry of Economy and Finance Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, monthly, in English and Khmer (includes summary GFS data) Economic and Financial Review, quarterly, in English and Khmer (includes final annual GFS data in Khmer only) Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport Education Statistics and Indicators, annual, in English and Khmer Education Indicators, annual, in English and Khmer Higher Education Statistics, Part I, annual, in English and Khmer Higher Education Statistics Part II, annual, in English and Khmer Statistics of Academic Staff Trained Abroad, annual, in English and Khmer Education in Cambodia, irregular, in English and Khmer Ministry of Public Health Communicable Disease Bulletin, monthly in Khmer Report on National Health Statistics, annual, in English and Khmer Ministry of Tourism Tourism Statistics, annual and monthly, in English and Khmer International Visitors Survey Report, irregular, in English and Khmer National Bank of Cambodia Economic and Monetary Statistics Review, monthly, in English and Khmer (annual balance of payments and monthly monetary statistics) Biannual Report of the NBC, annual, in English and Khmer Annual Report of the NBC, annual, in English and Khmer National Institute of Statistics/Ministry of Planning Consumer Price Index, Phnom Penh, monthly, in English and Khmer Consumer Price Index, Urban Cambodia, quarterly, in English and Khmer (first release 2002) Labor Force Survey of Phnom Penh, annual to 2000, in English Labor Force Survey of Cambodia, annual to 2001, in English National Accounts of Cambodia, annual, in English and Khmer Cambodian Statistical Yearbook, annual, in English Cambodian Socio-Economic Survey, irregular, in English and Khmer Cambodian Establishment Survey, irregular, in English and Khmer A Poverty Profile of Cambodia, irregular, in English Cambodian Demographic and Health Survey 2000, irregular, in English Cambodian Child Labor Survey 2001, irregular, in English and Khmer General Population Census of Cambodia, 1998, several publications covering various fields of population and social statistics, irregular, in English and Khmer 31. In addition, summary statistical data are generally provided in the annual reports of various other ministries (including department level annual reports in some instances) and institutions. A number of the publications listed above include data from ministries and institutions other than the authoring institution. Delays in data provision routinely results in the release of key partial economic indicators being delayed. 10 32. The NIS has significantly expanded and improved the Statistics Yearbook, as well as its national accounts and CPI publications. Electronic and web dissemination of official statistics by NIS has improved in recent years, with UNFPA support. E-mail is used by most RGC agencies to meet international reporting obligations. Access to official statistics has been improved with the opening of the NIS Data Users Service Center and the launch of the NIS Website in July 2002. III. Recent Statistics Capacity Development Initiatives 33. With IMF support and under the framework of the statistical component of the Technical Cooperation Assistance Plan (TCAP) - led by the MEF in partnership with IMF, ADB, WHO, UK-DFID, Government of the Netherlands and UNDP – the report on Review of Statistics Capacity in Cambodia (July 2002) - covering the capacity of NIS and other statistics units of Government was prepared and tabled at a workshop on Partnerships in Statistical Capacity Building for Cambodia in October 2002. The report outlined priorities for strengthening the national statistical system, including: implementation of statistics legislation and regulations; provisions for the independence of official statistics and autonomy of the NIS; strategic development plans and forward work programs for statistical activities; improved coordination and cooperation between RGC agencies on statistical activities and development, and information sharing; and improved access, dissemination, frequency, quality and range of official statistics. 34. The workshop was successful in improving donor and government understanding of Cambodia’s statistics capacity, as well as raising donor and government awareness in terms of the need to: Implement appropriate statistics legislation and regulations, and ensure that the legislation and regulations are enforced; Increase RGC appropriations and donor financing for official statistics; Establish a central body to advise the RGC and NIS on the statistical development priorities and emerging demands for statistics; Improve coordination within the donor community and government on TA issues; Establish a central statistics coordination committee, implement formal mechanisms, and other institutional arrangements to ensure effective coordination of statistics capacity development, activities and information-sharing; Strengthen staffing, computing resources, and facilities commensurate with the demand for official statistics, and implement more effective resource monitoring; Improve remuneration and career paths for statistics staff; Implement an integrated skills development strategy for statistics staff; Introduce performance management and merit-based recruitment and promotion processes for statistics staff; Ensure efficient use of resources by eliminating duplication and leveraging the survey and data processing capacity of the NIS; Ensure official statistics are produced on an impartial and independent basis, and introduce transparent statistical policies and practices; 11 Ensure the methodological basis for official statistics is in line with international standards and good practice; Ensure the quality of statistical methods and the accuracy and reliability of statistics; and Ensure that official statistics and related metadata are readily accessible, comparable, timely, and that periodicity of release are aligned to data user needs. 35. A total of 58 statistical capacity development proposals were discussed at the workshop. International and bilateral donors supported most of these proposals, in principle. A number of specific proposals attracted a degree of donor commitment. The World Bank sent a project identification mission to Cambodia in early 2003 and is currently considering a STA-TCAP in support of the development of a Statistics Master Plan. UNDP expressed a strong interest in supporting the development and implementation of statistics legislation and governance mechanisms. UNDP is currently finalizing a STA-TCAP, including financing of around US$ 1 million, to assist in implementing: statistics legislation, coordination mechanisms and other institutional arrangements; statistical skills development; and integrated dissemination. In addition, UK-DFID has agreed to provide 50 computers in 2003 to strengthen statistics resource capacity, and JICA has committed to establishing a statistics unit for gender statistics within the Ministry of Veterans and Women’s Affairs. 36. In terms of economic statistics and strengthening the national accounts database, ADB has recently provided TA up to June 2003 to: complete data validation and dissemination for the 2000 Establishment Survey; conduct a number of small-scale surveys covering agriculture, fisheries, forestry, retail and transport industries; conduct a pilot producer prices survey; and produce national accounts and CPI statistics. The ADB has recently completed its evaluation of previous statistics TA programs for Cambodia and is currently considering the extent and modality of future TA. The IMF Multi-sector Statistics Advisor is assisting with these activities, as well as assisting the NBC and MEF on other macroeconomic statistics. The IMF Resident Representative has indicated that the IMF will continue supporting the development of macro-economic statistics through targeted STA missions. 37. A number of donor funded surveys are expected to be conducted over the next few years to attempt to provide some of the source data required compile core sociodemographic statistics relating to education, health, population and poverty indicators. The NIS is currently in the process of implementing the Cambodia Household SocioEconomic Survey (2003-2004), with SIDA and UNDP support. The survey will provide much needed statistical information about the living standards of the population and the extent of poverty. A range of demographic and socio-economic information will be collected, including household characteristics and composition, income and expenditure, education and literacy, health and nutrition, crime and safety, labor force and consumer prices. An inter-censal survey will be conducted in 2004, with UNFPA TA, and a national health survey is planned for 2005, with WHO and other donor support. 12 38. Under the framework of the project Capacity Development for Poverty Monitoring and Analysis – led by the Council for Social Development in partnership with SIDA and UNDP - the RGC has established a Poverty Monitoring and Analysis (PMA) system, which aims at timeliness and reliability of data, including the monitoring of both process, inputs, outputs and outcomes. The PMA system aims at achieving both openness and result-orientation for informed policy dialogue and decision-making, by placing a strong emphasis on the measurement of poverty in relation to key macroeconomic, sector and budgetary reforms. The PMA system is expected to be the main tool for regular reporting on Cambodia’s progress towards achieving its national development goals, with backstopping by the PMA Technical Unit. 39. Due to the cross-sector nature of poverty, the information base needed for poverty monitoring and analysis is scattered among many isolated datasets stored in different and non-standard formats, making it difficult to access and analyze. The NIS, in cooperation with the PMATU, is developing an integrated poverty information system that will serve the information needs of planners, decision-makers, researchers and other actors. Ultimately, the aim is to establish electronic connectivity among line ministries/ other government agencies and NIS so as to improve the access and use of a common pool of poverty related data and information and disseminate the results in reports, abstracts, website and reviews, in a timely manner. The dissemination system will be connected and compatible with other the NIS Website and dissemination systems of other RGC policy analysis and statistics units. 40. UNDP is considering providing TA for the development of the NIS database or information warehouse, and UNICEF is providing assistance in the improving statistics dissemination based on the Dev Info software. A number of donors are also assisting other line ministries in building statistical capacity and undertaking activities in relation to statistics (e.g. ADB, FAO and World Bank for agriculture statistics, UNICEF and UNESCO for education and literacy statistics, GTZ and FAO for food security and nutrition statistics, WHO and other donors for health statistics). IV. Key Data Issues 41. In order to effectively address data user needs through an integrated national statistical system the key issues to be addressed include: ensuring the independence of official statistics; the financial and institutional autonomy of the NIS; regular and user driven data collection; effective coordination and integration of statistical activities; implementation of quality management frameworks and other statistical standards; regular and timely dissemination of comparable and comprehensive official statistics; and significant overall capacity strengthening across the NIS and other RGC statistics units. 42. The effective implementation of a sound national statistical system also requires: complementary and greater progress in judicial and public administration reforms; including adequate level of salaries for civil servants; enhanced inter-sector partnership 13 and effective information sharing; and a gradual increase in funding of statistical activities by government. 43. Once enacted, the draft Statistics Law will provide the NIS with the authority to establish: coordination and cooperation in statistical activities and development, including training, with the ministries and institutions of the RGC, as well as the private sector at the national as well as sub-national level; cooperative arrangements in statistical activities with international organizations, other national statistical agencies and other private institutions in accordance with the prevailing legislation; national statistical standards pertaining to classifications, concepts, definitions and statistical units. Effective implementation of the provisions of the draft Statistics Law should also ensure that only one statistical unit has the mandate to produce a particular official dataset. 44. The Law and the Sub-decree include provisions to facilitate effective governance of official statistics. A peak advisory body to be known as the Statistics Advisory Council will be established, with representatives from the donor community, NGOs, academia, policy ministries, the Ministry of Planning and the NIS. The role of the Council will be to advice the RGC and the NIS on statistical capacity building and statistics priorities, as well as providing a forum to address associated financial and technical assistance issues. 45. Effective formal arrangements and procedures will be implemented that clearly specify the responsibilities for coordination of statistical work and promotion of statistical standards. These arrangements are to be implemented through the: Development of a coordinated national program of statistical activities, to be assisted by the establishment of the Statistics Coordination Committee, with representatives from each statistics producing agency and the NIS; Establishment of statistics units in ministries that do not currently have statistics capacity, as well as the provision of appropriate physical and IT infrastructure and skills development; Establishment of a Statistics Clearing House and a Directory of Statistical Sources, in order to eliminate duplication of statistical effort, through joint statistical collection activities and/or data sharing, as appropriate; and Promotion of standard frameworks, concepts, classifications, and methodologies. 46. A number of RGC statistics units do not have adequate staffing levels to effectively coordinate, collect, compile, analyze and disseminate statistics. Some ministries do not have any statistical staff at all. Staffing levels need to be improved in order to handle ongoing statistical activities and to develop the outputs to meet priority emerging needs. Salaries need to be improved and to be more competitive in order to recruit, retain and reward qualified statisticians. Further staff training and skills development is required. Priority needs to be given to further developing leadership and management; methodology; statistical standards; survey design and methods; questionnaire design; information and communications technology; data dissemination; and writing and presentation skills. These skills need to be used continuously in undertaking regular statistical collection, compilation and dissemination activities, so that they can be maintained and developed further. Skills development for NIS provincial and 14 district office staff, and staff working in the other RGC statistics units is the highest training priority. 47. There is also considerable scope to improve buildings, equipment, facilities, and technology infrastructure, especially for NIS provincial and district offices, and in establishing new RGC statistics units. Office space for statistics units need to be improved to provide good physical security, and fully protected computer facilities and security procedures are required. Office furniture and equipment (desks, chairs, filing cabinets, computers and related equipment, software, telephones, etc.) need to be adequate to perform required statistical tasks. 48. The NIS has significantly improved its work program planning and reporting processes. Similar planning mechanisms and management information systems need to be implemented and used regularly by other RGC statistics units. Strategic plans that articulate vision, goals, and strategies, and annual work programs need to be developed. Autonomous budgets need to be established and monitored, and the performance of major projects in terms of costs, staff numbers and product sales need to be evaluated. 49. Considerable effort has been put into improving the quality and timeliness of official statistics by the NIS in recent years. However, the focus on improving data quality needs to be strengthened and promoted actively for all RGC statistics units. The various aspects of quality need to be regularly monitored, problems and suggestions for improvements need to be acted upon, quality reviews need to be conducted periodically, and innovation actively promoted. A strong and well-established culture of professional independence also needs to be developed, protected by legal and institutional provisions. 50. Developing and implementing an integrated dissemination strategy for official statistics is another high priority project. A draft strategy has been developed to significantly improve the quality, periodicity, range and timeliness of official statistics, as well as improving the dissemination of related metadata and concepts, sources and methods. Implementation of a one-stop shop approach is proposed, with all web access to official statistics and metadata being via the NIS Website. The dissemination strategy will be consistent with GDDS quality, periodicity and timeliness objectives. Official statistics will be released in English and Khmer, in both publication and electronic format, as well as via website. In addition to regular dissemination of statistics, consideration will be given to publishing and disseminating: An advance schedule listing all NIS and other government releases of official statistics and their release dates via the NIS Website (including the date of release for the next issue of each publication); Concepts, sources and methods manuals or compilation guides for each field of statistics (e.g. balance of payments, national accounts, education, health); and The Directory of Statistical Data Sources and the GDDS templates, to be accessible via the NIS Website. 51. Macroeconomic statistics are almost entirely based on administrative data collections and there are still significant data gaps. Most administrative data collections 15 do not conform to international concepts, definitions and standards. Significant effort is required to improve data collection, processing and validation in order to improve data quality. Administrative staff within RGC institutions and ministries have limited or no statistical skills and do not generally appreciate how the information they collect will be utilized. Most collections do not meet the needs of data users (e.g. investment approvals versus actual investment). The majority of these collections involve manual tabulation and significant transcription errors are common. In most instances the administrative and regulatory documents do not include data items needed by intermediate and end users (e.g. customs declaration forms). Coverage for most of these collections is inadequate (e.g. mining, industry, services statistics) and underreporting is common (e.g. agriculture, fisheries and forestry production and exports). Input editing and validation is not common practice and output editing and validation is limited. While significant effort has been made in recent years by international donors to improve this situation, much more effort is required. 52. Three establishment surveys have been conducted since 1993, however, these surveys were based on incomplete registers and response rates have ranged between 60 and 70 percent. The quality of data collected through these surveys has generally been poor, requiring significant amendments at the output validation stage. Prices data collection is limited to consumer prices for Phnom Penh and five provincial cities, and these prices do not represent rural consumer prices. However, data quality is reasonable and improving over time. Annual labor force surveys have been discontinued due to lack of funding, a significant gap in the national database. 53. Development priorities relating to economic statistics include improving the periodicity, quality, and timeliness of macroeconomic, finance and economic sector statistics. Improving the quality of annual national accounts estimates, in current and constant prices, and the production of quarterly national accounts estimates are a high priority. However, both involve substantial expansion of, and expenditure on, data collection, coordination efforts and infrastructure. The NIS urgently needs to conduct regular business surveys and decennial agriculture and establishment censuses. The censuses are critical as they have never been conducted in Cambodia, and this lack of benchmark data has significant implications for the accuracy of GDP levels estimates in current prices. Similarly, the lack of producer and trade price indices brings into question the quality of GDP constant price estimates. 54. Subject to financing, the NIS plans to: establish and maintain an integrated business register in order to provide a reliable population frame for sample surveys, as well as to produce reliable annual national aggregates; conduct regular annual and/or subannual surveys to measure labor force and labor costs, production and services, and producer prices; and expand CPI data collection activities. 55. While there have been significant improvements made in the quality and timeliness of balance of payments, and monetary and financial statistics, and to a lesser extent for government finance statistics, further improvements are needed. The lack of reliable and timely quarterly government and external debt statistics are a concern. 16 Regular annual or sub-annual surveys of state owned enterprises, finance and insurance establishments, foreign investment and international transactions are planned, subject to financing, in order to further improve the quality of these statistics. Improving access to, and the collection and quality of, administrative data produced by line ministries and institutions are also needed. The highest priority areas being the improvement of Customs’ imports and exports data, the Council for the Development of Cambodia’s investment data, Ministry of Commerce’s business registration data, and the MEF government debt, revenue and expenditure data. 56. The improvements in capacity building for socio-demographic statistics, especially for education, health, population, and poverty statistics, have been considerably greater than those for economic and environment statistics. Despite significant support, household surveys underpinning core social statistics are irregular, with frequency of collection ranging from 4 to 6 years. Clearly, conducting the planned 2008 Population Census and disseminating the results is the highest statistics priority of the RGC in relation to socio-demographic statistics. Indications are that UNFPA will at best only provide 50 per cent of the financing requirements for this census, and additional donor support will be required. 57. Subject to financing, the NIS plans to establish a regular and more frequent household survey program to measure access to services and outcomes for education and literacy, health and nutrition, crime and safety, and other areas of social concern. An annual household income and expenditure survey needs to be conducted in order to produce reliable poverty reduction measures on an annual basis. Data coordination between the relevant line ministries and the NIS needs to be strengthened, and more effective use made of NIS field interviewer and data processing capacity by line ministries and donors, in order to reduce data collection costs and to improve the quality of survey results. 58. There is also a strong imperative to develop and implement national information development plans for each area of social concern, including integrated national databases and effective dissemination strategies. These national databases should include both official statistics compiled by the NIS and line ministries, as well as the considerable range of information and statistics being produced by international and local nongovernment organizations. Effective implementation of these plans should considerably reduce duplication of effort and improve data access to government and other data users. 59. In terms of environment statistics, assistance has been provided by ADB to develop an Environment and Natural Resources Statistics Framework and a compendium publication, based entirely on administrative data. This area of statistics is substantially underdeveloped, with significant data gaps and quality issues that need to be addressed. Further assistance is required to improve capacity and implement effective data coordination amongst the relevant line ministries, as well as to enable the NIS to conduct planned annual environment management surveys. 17 V. Measuring Data Quality and Statistics Capacity 60. As indicated above, the Cambodian authorities are receptive to measuring data quality and statistics capacity. Cambodia is progressively implementing the GDDS framework and conducted its first annual GDDS review in January 2003. The findings have been generally positive, with reasonable progress having been made in implementing short-term plans. While not formally adopted, the DQAF is being used to assess and improve the data quality of macroeconomic statistics. Similarly, the generic DQAF framework can be applied in assessing statistics not specifically covered by the framework. 61. Clearly at this stage of development in Cambodia’s statistics capacity, the emphasis is on implementing the prerequisites of quality and addressing significant data gaps. The Review of Statistics Capacity in Cambodia, conducted in early 2002, was a reasonably comprehensive review comparing Cambodia’s statistics capacity and operations with international good practice. The Australian and Singapore statistical systems were used as regional benchmarks. The draft PARIS21 Statistical Capacity Building Indicators Questionnaire (2002) provided by the IMF to the resident MSA was also used to evaluate capacity as at the end of 2001. The results were released by the Cambodian authorities in the Review Report. The questionnaire is seen as a good starting point and a useful assessment tool at the macro-level. 62. There would be considerable benefit to Cambodia and other developing countries in extending the GDDS and DQAF frameworks to specifically include templates for all statistics underpinning the MDGs. Consideration should also be given to actively promoting the use of the DQAF and the PARIS21 questionnaire. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ 18