NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology TPG 4140 NATURGASS Comparison of biomass and natural gas Group11: Mirtha Ortega Per Åkesson Hilde Dyrbeck Silje Fosse Håkonsen Trondheim November 2004 Abstract This report gives a description and comparison of bioenergy and natural gas as energy sources. Cost and environmental aspects are considered from production to end-users in Sweden and partly Norway. Both natural gas – and biomass fired power plants offer a good alternative to existing coal, oil and nuclear power plants. Commercialised technologies are available, and the choice is dependent on economical and environmental aspects as well as political. The report can not conclude with one alternative being better than the other. It all depends on location and existing power production. Bioenergy is not a completely “clean” energy source, there are many environmental aspects regarding this that needs to be recognised and considered. On a long term basis there will be no net emission of CO2 from biomass, but with a large increase in the number of biomass power plants the short-term effect is unclear. ii Index Abstract ..........................................................................................................................ii Index ............................................................................................................................ iii 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 2 Emissions .................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 CO2-emissions ..................................................................................................... 2 2.2 NOX-emissions ..................................................................................................... 3 2.4 International agreements....................................................................................... 4 2.4 Environmental consequences when growing short rotation forests ..................... 5 3 Natural Gas ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Transportation of natural gas ................................................................................ 7 3.2 Power production – combined heat and power .................................................... 9 3.3 Economical analysis – electricity and heat from natural gas.............................. 11 4 Bioenergy .................................................................................................................. 14 4.1 Benefits of bioenergy.......................................................................................... 14 4.2 Taxes and subsidies ............................................................................................ 15 4.3 Combined heat and power from biomass ........................................................... 15 5 Social cost analysis ................................................................................................... 17 5.1 Method and assumptions .................................................................................... 17 5.2 Production cost analysis ..................................................................................... 18 5.3 Environmental cost analysis for forest residues ................................................. 19 5.3 Total social cost .................................................................................................. 23 6 Discussion ................................................................................................................. 25 7 Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 28 References .................................................................................................................... 29 Appendix 1 Possible natural gas pipe line routes ........................................................ 32 Appendix 2 Development in natural gas prices ........................................................... 34 iii 1 Introduction The world’s population is presently increasing by more than 90 million people a year and the world’s 6 billion people today is expected to grow to 10 billion in 2050 before it will reach stability. 95% of the growth is forecasted to be in developing countries (Miljøstatus, 2004a). This increase in the world’s population in addition to the globalisation of the world economy will greatly add to the global energy demand. According to IEA (International Energy Agency) world-wide energy demand is set to grow by 2.4% per year to 2030 (EU energy, 2003). This sets high requirements for pollution control and will lead to many environmental challenges. Bioenergy is a renewable energy source and can be defined as a material that can be derived directly or indirectly from plant photosynthesis. If biomass was grown at the same rate as it was consumed, the net contribution to atmospheric CO2 would be zero. This is not the case for fossil fuels, which will increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Bioenergy is not included in the Kyoto Protocol and is thus not in the CO2-accounts. In other words, the combustion of e.g. biopellets will not affect the emission quotas distributed via the Kyoto Protocol. This project will look further into the use of bioenergy versus the use of natural gas in Sweden and partly in Norway. Is bioenergy as environmentally friendly as it is claimed to be? A comparison between bioenergy and natural gas will be given, from production to end-users. Both environment and cost will be emphasised. 1 2 Emissions Combustion of natural gas or bioenergy results in large emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides, which in different ways pose threats to the environment. However, unlike coal and oil, both natural gas and bioenergy contains only small amounts of sulphur so the emissions of sulphur dioxide are relatively negligible in comparison. 2.1 CO2-emissions The world’s climate has always shifted between warm and cold periods. However, the observed increase in the earth’s yearly mean temperature is caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) has concluded that our emissions have already influenced the climate to be more than 0.5C warmer than during the 19th century (Naturvårdsverket, 2003). Figure 1 presents the deviation in global mean temperature in the period of 1861 – 2001. Figure 1: Deviation in the global mean temperature in the period of 1861 to 2001 (Source: DNMI/University of East Anglia). 2 A change in the global climate will have serious consequences for our environment and social economy, especially if the natural ecosystem does not manage to adapt to the change fast enough. Regional temperature change and changes in rainfall patterns will alter conditions for farming and can result in reduced food production with a subsequent loss in income for farmers. A rise in temperature may also affect our health as diseases such as malaria may spread into new regions. Another cause of concern is that extreme weather may become more frequent and more violent leading to great humanitarian disasters. The sea level will rise due to ice-melting and thermal expansion of the sea, drowning low-lying land and increase the risk of flooding. This will seriously influence the life in the coastal zone (Miljøstatus, 2004a). 2.2 NOX-emissions NOX is generated in all combustion reactions. To some extent, NOX originates from the nitrogen content of the combustibles, but the greater part are formed as a result of atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen at the high temperatures obtained during reaction. Emissions of nitrogen oxides cause several environmental problems. Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and NOX are the main contributors to acidification, which leads to widespread damage to vegetable and animal life in forests and lakes. In addition, NOX contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone, which has negative effects on vegetation and human health. Even though serious attempts have been made to reduce the extent of NOX emissions, goals have not been yet reached (Naturvårdsverket, 2004a). Figure 2 shows the emissions of NOX in Sweden from 1980. 3 Figure 2: NOX emissions in Sweden from 1980 to 2002. 2.4 International agreements Year 1992 in Rio de Janeiro the industrial countries of the world were signing a convention saying that all industrial countries should prepare to reduce their emissions of green house gases and report their figures to UN. But soon they realised that they had to be more restrictive and in 1997 the Kyoto protocol, which regulates emissions of CO2 and other green house gases during 2008-2012 for the OECDcountries, was established. According to the protocol EU has to reduce its emissions with 8 % compared to the level of 1990. The countries inside EU have agreed in a national level for each country, depending on the industrial structure and BNP of the country. Norway has committed to stabilising the emissions at 1% above the 1990 emission level in the period from 2008 to 2010 (Miljøstatus, 2004b). Sweden has agreed to stabilise the emissions at 4% above 1990 emissions in the same period. Between 1991 and 2001 Sweden has decreased their emissions with 6%, while Norway has increased emissions with approximately 40%. (Statens Energimyndighet, 2003a) To meet the emission quotas established by the Kyoto Protocol will be difficult for many countries. The protocol has therefore opened up for some flexible mechanisms that make it possible for the countries to trade with the carbon dioxide emissions (UNFCC). 4 Vladimir Putin signed the Kyoto agreement the 5. November 2004. After Russia ratified this agreement it will finally become operative the 16. February next year (2005) (VG, 2004). The Gothenburg Protocol treats the emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ammonia and volatile organic compounds. The first breakthrough for this protocol came in 1979 when 30 European countries, USA and Canada endorsed the UNConvention on Long-range Transboundery Air Pollution (CLRTAP). In this protocol the problems of acidification were recognised and the signatories agreed to co-operate to reduce their emissions of acidifying substances. The Gothenburg Protocol was signed in 1999 and will be used to control emissions of i.a. nitrogen oxides in Europe up to 2010. Norway has agreed to reduce its emissions of nitrogen oxides to a maximum of 156 000 tonnes in 2010. This corresponds to a reduction of 28% compared to 1990 level (Miljøstatus, 2002). 2.4 Environmental consequences when growing short rotation forests In Sweden willows are grown on farmland and used in short rotation forestry with the aim to produce biomass for energy. There are several environmental influences when growing willows as for any cultivated crop. These need to be recognized and evaluated. Energy crop production is proposed to be performed in land currently used for agricultural production (Ranney&Mann, 1994). In this way wild nature is spared, but at the same time energy crop production will compete with agricultural production. Chemicals are used in connection with energy crop production. Fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides are used in varying extent for nutrition, weed control and insect control. If energy crops replace row crops, the use of fertilizers and herbicides are expected to be lower, and thus water quality should improve. If energy crops replace pasture, hay land and close crops such as wheat, water quality effects are expected to be mixed (Ranney&Mann, 1994). 5 Short rotation forestry plantation with willows will not lead to acidification of the soil if the grower follows the management recommendations. A liming effect on the soil will be achieved if the ashes from the willows are recycled, as is the intention in the future (Ledin, 1998). Willow crops have a relatively large uptake of cadmium from the soil which can be used to clean the soil from cadmium. This possibility can only be taken advantage of if the cadmium can be separated from the ash at low cost and in an environmentally sound way. However, more research is needed to explore the process of cadmium cleaning (Ledin, 1998). High dust and pollen emissions can be expected to be a problem in willow crop production (Ranney&Mann, 1994). This can cause serious problems and discomfort for allergics and asthmatics. It is estimated that the degree of erosion will be approximately the same for energy crop production as for hayland or pasture if it was not for the establishment phase. Thus, erosion is of concern when establishing energy crop production (Ranney&Mann, 1994). Willows will grow to 6-7 meters in height before harvest. This will change the landscape significantly if for example energy crops are replacing row crops. An earlier open landscape will therefor be changed to forest (Ledin, 1998). If this influences the landscape in a good or bad way is a case of personal opinion. 6 3 Natural Gas Sweden consumes approximately 0.8 BCM of natural gas per year (BP, 2003), which correspond to about 2% of the total energy use in Sweden. The natural gas is imported from Denmark, and is transported up the west coast from Malmö to Gothenburg in a 300 km long high-pressure pipeline. The focus in this report will be on the Stockholm-region, which is estimated to have a potential of 3 BCM natural gas per year, 2 BCM for power production in a combined heat and power plant and 1 BCM for industry (Guðmundsson, 2004). 3.1 Transportation of natural gas There are several alternatives for transportation of natural gas, and figure 3 shows a scheme that can be used to assess the different options. Because of the large amounts of natural gas needed, there are mainly two options for transporting the natural gas to the Stockholm region, as high-pressure gas in a pipeline or as LNG in boats. They each have different advantages, and the choice is usually a trade-off between capital cost and running expense, based on the amount natural gas needed and the distance from the field to the market (Guðmundsson and Graff, 2003). Figure 4 shows the correlation between capital expenditure and distance for different natural gas transportation options. Building a pipeline is a major investment, and is probably only possible with cooperation with the government. A pipeline is a necessity for realising a natural gas fired power plant in the Stockholm region. 7 Figure 3: Technology choices for transportation of natural gas at different capacities and distances (Guðmundsson and Graff, 2003). Figure 4: Capital cost plotted against distance for different natural gas transportation systems (Guðmundsson and Graff, 2003). There are proposed two different routes for gas transportation to Sweden and the Stockholm area, the Mid-Nordic gas pipe (Stamgass) and the Scandinavian gas ring (Statnett). Sketches of both are shown in Appendix 1. 8 3.2 Power production – combined heat and power When describing power production from natural gas, one usually refers to the combined gas- and steam turbine process. A power plant with both steam- and gas turbines is called a combined cycle power plant (CCPP). A principle sketch of a CCPP is given in figure 5. Compressed air (10-30 bar) is mixed with natural gas in the combustion chamber, and the exothermic combustion reaction causes a rapid increase in temperature. The exhaust gas (1400-1500˚C) is expanded in the turbine, and the mechanical work is transformed to electric energy in the generator. Some of the expansion work is used for driving the compressor. After the gas turbine, the exhaust gas (500-600˚C) is heat exchanged with the closed steam cycle to produce highpressure steam (110-120 bar, 550-600˚C). The steam is expanded in the steam turbine, to as low as 0.03-0.07 bar, and then condensed and pumped back into the steam boiler (Bolland, 2004). Figure 5 : Combined cycle power plant (Bolland, 2004). 9 The planned combined heat and power (CHP) plant at Rya south in Sweden is used as a basis for the estimates in this work. In addition to a CCPP it has a district heating system, see figure 6. It has a efficiency of approximatly 0.9 , with ηel = 0.5 and ηheat = 0.4, and will deliver 1459 GWh heat and 1250 GWh electricity each year. It will have three gas turbines and one common steam turbine (Göteborg Energi). Figure 6 : Co-production of heat and power (Göteborg Energi). The exhaust gas from the natural gas combustion drives a gas turbine connected to an electric generator. The exhaust gas is then heat exchanged with the closed steam cycle, and the hot steam operates the steam turbine with another generator. Finally, the remaining heat is taken out into the district heating system through a condenser. The effect of the plant is 260 MW electricity and 290 MW heat (Göteborg Energi). The plant will use 300 million Nm3 natural gas per year. The key numbers are summarised in table 1. 10 Table 1: Key numbers for Rya power plant. Electricity Heat Effect 260 MW 290 MW Energy production 1250 GWh/year 1450 GWh/year Efficiency 0.5 0.4 Load factor 55% 57% The emissions of CO2 from a CCPP is estimated to approximately 350 g/kWh electricity produced (Furuholt, 2004; Bolland, 2004). The amount of NOx emitted is dependent on the burner characteristics in the combustion chamber, and can become very low with contemporary low-NOx burners. At the Rya power plant the requirements say that emissions should be less than 30 mg NOx/MJ fuel, and with normal operation the emissions should be less than 10 mg NOx/MJ fuel (Göteborg Energi). The amount of CO and particles in the exhaust gas should not exceed 30 ppm and 1 mg/nm3, respectively. 3.3 Economical analysis – electricity and heat from natural gas The most important factors in assessing the cost of the plant is capital expenditure, operating expenses, the price of natural gas and taxes on CO2 and NOx emissions. According to Swedish law, the taxation on energy from natural gas is 1861 SEK per 1000 m3. Of this sum 233 SEK per 1000 m3 come from an energy tax, and 1628 SEK per 1000 m3 come from carbon dioxide taxation. Natural gas has no taxation for sulphur dioxide because the sulphur content is considered to be negligible (Svenska Gasföreningen). A Swedish study by Sundberg and Henning (Sundberg and Henning, 2002) estimates the investment cost as a combination between a fixed cost and one part dependent on the size of the power plant. The study also estimates operational costs, and all numbers are shown in tables 2 and 3. 11 Table 2: Capex for a natural gas fired CHP (Sundberg and Henning, 2002). Fixed investment Size dependent cost (MSEK) investment cost (SEK/kWe) 110 5200 Table 3: Opex for a natural gas fired CHP (Sundberg and Henning, 2002). Fuel price CO2-tax Energy tax Operation and (SEK/MWh) (SEK/MWh) (SEK/MWh) maintenance (SEK/MWh) 110 37 6 5 Total (SEK/ MWh) 158 In another Swedish analysis, estimates are made for both production cost and environmental cost, and the sum of the two are called total social cost (Miranda and Hale, 2001). Table 4 summarises the numbers for four different natural gas fired power plant technologies. The environmental costs mainly consist of emissions from processing and transport (NOx, SO2 CO, CO2, particulate matter and hydrocarbons) and emissions from the combustion (NOx, CO, CO2, and hydrocarbons). The concept of total cost analysis is explained in chapter 5. Table 4: Total social costs for natural gas based energy production systems (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 2001). Costs Production Environmental Total Small heating plants 93-113 8-49 104-162 Large heating plants 86-103 8-49 94-152 Condensing plants 130-159 8-49 138-208 CHP plants 151-183 8-49 159-232 Natural gas fired power plants 12 A cost diagram for a combined cycle power plant is shown in figure 7 (Bolland, 2004). It is for a 400 MW power plant, and shows the variation in electricity prices due to variation in natural gas prices. It can be seen that a prospective CO2–tax will have a large influence on the economic viability of the project. Figure 7: Electricity production cost at different natural gas prices for a CCPP (Bolland, 2004). From figure 7 it can be concluded that price on natural gas is very important for whether the project will be economic profitable. A prospective CO2-tax will also influence the electricity production cost, note that the number in the figure is only an example. 13 4 Bioenergy Bioenergy can be regarded as one of the most important renewable resources in future energy systems. Biomass is stored sun energy and can be upgraded to solid or liquid fuels. The northern part of Sweden has abundant supply of forests but much heat and power is needed in the southern parts. An increase in demand for bioenergy in the rest of Europe is also expected. This means that the biomass has to be transported over long distances and this result in an increased level of emissions and increased energy input. Is this a sustainable system that can compete with other energies in the future? 4.1 Benefits of bioenergy The benefit of using bioenergy is that the combustion does not provide the atmosphere with any net CO2. The plants on Earth build up biomass with carbon from the CO2 in air and when being combusted the CO2 is released and can be used by the plants to build new biomass. The same amount of CO2 would have been released when decomposing, but during a longer time period and without letting us take advantage of the energy stored in the biomass. If the use of biofuels is to be sustainable in the future, it is necessary to return the nutritive substances and minerals back to the forest. An increased use of bioenergy also creates new jobs, often in areas with low employment. The raw materials have to be refined and transported, and equipment has to be manufactured. Bioenergy creates a chain of activities that generates jobs. Svebio has made the appraisal that every TWh of new produced bioenergy in Sweden can create about 300 new jobs (Svenska Bioenergiföreningen, 2003). When new lasting jobs are being created the society earns money from salary and employment taxes. The costs for unemployment benefit decrease at the same time. Theoretically there can be a yearly profit for the society of nearly 65 million SEK for every new TWh from bioenergy (Svenska Bioenergiföreningen, 1998). 14 4.2 Taxes and subsidies In 1991 taxes on CO2 emissions was introduced in Sweden, and is to be paid for emissions from all fuels except biofuel and peat. In Sweden the CO2-tax has contributed to a more profitable development and usage of biofuels and to a substantial reduction of CO2-emissions. Biofuels have become very competitive for production of district heating. Today the Swedish CO2-tax is 0,76 SEK/kg (Statens Energimyndighet, 2003b). All fuels used for electricity production are declared exempt from energy- and CO2-tax. The producers of renewable energy (wind, CHP with biofuel and water power in small-scale) is supported by being allotted electricity certificates from the Swedish government, one for every produced MWh. The electricity suppliers are forced to buy certificates in ratio to the electricity they use. During 2003 they were forced to buy seven certificates for every hundred MWh they had used. The ratio will raise from year to year in order to stimulate investments in the electricity production from renewable sources, from 7.4% in 2003 to 16.9% in 2010. The goal is to increase the electricity from renewable sources with 10 TWh from 2002 to 2010. Norway has chosen not to introduce electricity certificates because they think this leads to too big fluctuation in prices and uncertain conditions for investments in power plants. 4.3 Combined heat and power from biomass In a CHP plant heat is produced in addition to electricity. Heat is distributed to the consumers in a district heating system. There are several different biomass combustors, the most popular ones are either stoker-fired or fluid bed designs. In stoker-fired combustors the biomass feed burns as it moves through the furnace, resting on a stationary or moving grate. 15 Fluid bed designs burn the feed in a turbulent bed of inert material that is fluidised by combustion air flowing through it from underneath. Fluid bed boilers are commercially available in different technical configurations. Bubbling fluid bed reactors are used for low capacities and circulating fluid beds are reported over the entire capacity range. Fluid bed combustors are rapidly becoming the preferred alternative, because of their low NOx emissions (Bridgwater et.al., 2002). 16 5 Social cost analysis 5.1 Method and assumptions In this study an analysis for the full social costs has been made to explore the attractiveness for different bioenergy producing systems in Sweden. Similar studies have been done before and have proved how important it is to consider the full social costs, not just the economical (Miranda and Hale, 1997). Full social cost analysis includes production costs (e.g. transport, capital, operation and maintenance costs) which producers pay, as well as environmental costs (e.g. air and water pollution), typically borne by society. The social costs for harvesting is neglected since it would occur regardless of the ultimate use of forest residue. This study focuses specifically on forest residues. The estimated data in this report derives from a larger study made for Studieförbundet Näringsliv och Samhälle (Miranda and Hale, 1998). The social cost analysis of energy production is made on two forms of forest residues; wood chips (chip, limbs and tops, sawdust, bark) in bales, and refined residue (biopellets). The reason for baling the wood chips is to increase the density to facilitate storage and transportation. The energy production is categorised in four different systems typically for Sweden: small heating plants (1-10 MW), big heating plants (>50 MW), condensing plants which produce electricity, and combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) which produce both heat (hot water or steam) and electricity. Heating and CHP plants have the possibility to use flue gas condensation (FGC) technology. Wood chips contain a large amount of water (30-50%) and generate substantial amounts of steam when combusted. Flue gas condensation is a technique used to recover the steam at the end of the pipe during biomass combustion. This technology requires an increased capital but gives increased energy efficiency (Joanneum Research, 2001). It must also be considered that during combustion, forest residue fuel produces a significant amount of ash. The ash could either be disposed of (landfill option) or be reapplicated to the forest (reapplication option). For the landfill option deposition in monofills is assumed – a landfill with only one type of waste (Miranda and Hale, 1998). 17 5.2 Production cost analysis Production costs for forest residue energy production includes costs in removal of residue extraction, processing, transport combustion and ash disposal/reapplication (see Table 5). Table 5: Steps in energy production based on forest residues(Miranda and Hale, 1998). Removal of forest residue Combustion Disposal Harvesting Combustion Monofill or Chipping or refining Ash processing Transport Ash application Table 6 estimates the production costs for the forest residue energy production for different combustion systems (SEK/MWh). This includes the costs incurred in residue extraction, processing, transport (Energimyndigheten, 2004), combustion (Börjesson et al., 1995) and ash disposal/reapplication (Ericson et al., 1994). Table 6: Comparison of production costs (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Fuel Small heating Large heating Condensing CHP plants plants plants plants (el. & heat) Wood chips w/o FGC 203-240 155-191 194-231 199-240 Wood chips w/ FGC 202-238 171-219 N/A 209-257 Refined forest residue 268-302 220-253 139-293 264-302 Wood chips w/o FGC 202-240 154-191 193-232 198-204 Wood chips w/ FGC 201-239 170-220 N/A 208-258 Refined forest residue 268-302 220-253 259-293 264-302 Landfill options Reapplication option 18 5.3 Environmental cost analysis for forest residues Environmental costs include impact on the environment for residue extraction, emissions from the processing – combustion – waste chain, and ash reapplication or disposal. Forest harvesting for industrial use has a major impact on the environment. Since this occurs regardless of the later use of the biomass, it is not included in this report. But of course it has negative effects on the soil, water, air, biota and future productive potential of the forest. Comparing the environmental impacts from residue removal with a situation when the residues are left on site shows interesting information. With mechanical harvesting methods the residue are left in rows or piles. In these piles unnaturally high levels of nitrogen and potassium forms and could easily leak out to the surrounding soil. Indeed, high levels of nitrogen have been measured at these types of sites (Samuelsson and Bäcke, 1997). In contrast, the nitrogen of natural decomposed residues are volatile and leaves only 10% redeposited as nitrogen oxide and ammonia. Thus, certain soils and watersheds will be significally negatively affected, even though the residues remains on site (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Harvesting residues are rich in nutrients that the tree originally extracted from the soil. Under natural circumstances these nutrients return to the soil during decomposition. Harvesting disturbs the balance and remove nutrients form the soil. This results in compositional changes in the soil, pH, productivity losses and changes in biota. Further, residue removal also results in air emissions. Table 7 shows an estimated cost calculation for environmental impact associated with the removal of forest residues and energy production. The largest cost comes from the loss of nutrient in the soil. The damage is estimated in a Norwegian study which proves cost functions for water and forest damage from NOX and SO2 (Alfsen and Brendemoen, 1992). 19 Table 7: Estimated costs for environmental impacts of residue removal (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Impact Assumption Cost Soil acidification Acidification is equal to acid precipitation 5–7 Nutrient export Fertilizer will be needed to replace the nutrient Unknown, but loss likely Possible reduction, especially considering Unknown, but changes in soil mycorrhizae – more study needed likely Possible effects – long term study needed Unknown, but Productivity Flora & fauna likely Nitrogen export In southern Sweden N export results in net -5 – 2 benefit; in northen Sweden, in net cost Total 11-20 Mycorrihzae is a type of fungus that grows in association with plant and tree roots, improving the ability of roots to absorb nutrients from the soil (Svampguiden). Residue removal, chipping and transport to combustion plants all involve motordriven vehicles and machinery. Both harvesting equipment and chipping machines runs on diesel fuel. Air emission controllers for this type of motors tends to be less restrictive then for normal combustion motors although diesel motors have a significant high level of NOX emissions. The chip delivery from harvesting site to combustion plants usually occurs by truck, train or ship. Compared to train and ship, trucks have the highest level of air emissions. CO2 emissions from the supply system are relatively small compared with the amounts from combustion. Since CO2 emissions from combustion origin from the fuel, the supply system is responsible for most of the CO2 net emission. Emissions levels can be reduced by using biobased fuels or improved fuel efficiency (Börjesson et. al., 1995). The decision on what means of transportation to use depends primarily on the distance. Trucks are less expensive on short distance (<150 km) while train and ship are preferred for longer distances or when there is a depot or harbour close by. 20 Further, only refined forest residue fuels are considered to be economically profitable for long distance transportation (Börjesson and Gustavsson, 1996). Table 8 shows estimated costs for air emissions from harvesting and transportation. For wood chips trucks are assumed and for refined fuels train or ship are assumed (Börjesson and Gustavsson, 1996). Table 8: Estimated costs for air emission from fuel processing and transportation (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Impact Estimated emission Cost Wood chips Incl. NOX, SO2, CO, CO2, HC and 3 – 23 PM 3 – 19 Refined fuels As for all forms of combustion, wood fuel emits air pollutants. The amount and type of pollutant depend both on the specific combustion process, as well as the extent of controlled burning. In Sweden, large heating plants must have permits for emissions, although small plants have less strict regulation and therefore emit more pollutants per MWh (Börjesson and Gustavsson, 1996). The dispute concerning the role of CO2 emission in global climate requires further studies. Many consider CO2 emission from biomass fuels irrelevant because carbon from forest residues is a part of the natural carbon cycle. Based on this, the Swedish government has decided not to levy carbon taxes on energy production based on biomass fuels. However, the carbon uptake by growing biomass occurs much slower than carbon release during combustion. Studies have been made to investigate this time difference and the net emission for CO2 to the atmosphere from forest residue combustion is calculated. It has been estimated that 13% of the emissions released from combustion remains in the atmosphere after 80 years (Börjesson, 1996) Table 9 shows the estimated environmental costs for air emissions from combustion of different types of combustion systems. The largest contributing factors are NO X 21 and particle emissions. Since smaller heating plants have less strict regulations, they have increased environmental costs. Table 9: Estimated costs for air emissions from combustion (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Source Estimated pollutant Wood Refined fuels chips Small heating plants NOX, SO2, CO, CO2, HC, Cd, 9-79 6-69 Pb, Hg and PM Large heating plants 6-37 4-34 Condensing plants 4-18 4-18 CHP plants 4-24 3-21 Environmental costs associated with landfilling combustion ash origin primarily from air emissions and water leachate. Generally it is assumed that monofills has a negligible environmental costs (Miranda and Hale, 1997). But since ash from biomass combustion contains most of the nutrients which have been removed from the forest soils, it is a natural consequence to reapplicate the ash. Therefore, ash reapplication is considered to be a completion of the nutrient cycle. Further, acidified soil benefits from the liming effects of the ash. In loose form the ash is very basic, pH 11-13, which could have a more negative effect than a positive if it is applicated directly to the soil (Samuelsson and Bäcke, 1997). Instead, the ash has to be modified (hardening, granulation, pelletization) to slow the release of nutrients, heavy metals and the liming effect. Although this process increases the economical costs, it dramatically decreases the negative environmental impacts (Ericson et al., 1994). Generally ash reapplication results in a net benefit, but it has significant geographical variations. Research shows that the extent of the increase in pH from ash reapplication is similar to the reduction caused by removal of forest residues. 22 5.3 Total social cost To analyse the competitiveness of every energy production system, the total social cost has to be calculated. The social cost combines the production cost with the environmental cost. This type of analysis provides a more complete picture over the real costs in an energy system (Miranda and Hale, 2001). Table 10 shows the total social cost from the earlier estimated production and environmental costs. Two of the systems is based on wood chips; one with FGC and one without. Both systems are assumed to use trucks as a mean of transportation. The third system is based on refined fuels and assumes to use ship as a mean of transportation. Refined biofuel has somewhat lower environmental costs than wood chips. This derives primarily from transportation costs. Refined fuels contain more energy per mass unit than wood chips due to a lower content of moisture. Thus, fewer trucks are needed to transport the same amount of energy. As a result of the lower moisture content, ship or train, which both have a lower negative environmental impact than truck transport can transport refined fuels (Miranda and Hale, 2001). Table 10 also shows that the use of FGC technology results in lower environmental costs, primarily due to differences in emissions from combustion. Generally, systems using ash reapplication are more economical. This particularly applies to central and southern Sweden, which receives the greatest reward from the liming effects of ash (Samuelson and Bäcke, 1997). Wood chips also seem to be a more attractive option than refined fuels. 23 Table 10: Total social costs for wood chip based energy production systems with and without FGC and for refined biofuel based energy production systems (SEK/MWh) (Miranda and Hale, 1998). Costs Production Environmental Total Small heating plants 202-238 20-112 222-350 Large heating plants 171-219 18-77 189-296 CHP plants 209-257 17-64 226-321 Small combustion plants 201-239 -5-96 196-335 Large combustion plants 170-220 -8-62 162-282 CHP plants 208-258 -8-49 200-307 Small heating plants 203-240 22-122 225-362 Large heating plants 155-191 20-80 175-271 Condensing plants 194-231 18-61 212-292 CHP plants 199-240 18-67 217-307 Small heating plants 202-240 -3-107 199-347 Large heating plants 154-191 -6-64 148-256 Condensing plants 193-232 -7-46 186-278 CHP plants 198-240 -8-51 190-291 Small heating plants 268-302 20-108 288-410 Large heating plants 220-253 17-73 237-326 Condensing plants 259-293 17-57 276-350 CHP plants 264-302 17-60 281-362 Small heating plants 268-302 -5-92 263-394 Large heating plants 220-253 -8-58 212-311 Condensing plants 259-293 -8-41 251-334 CHP plants 264-302 -8-45 256-347 Wood chip based energy production systems with FGC Landfill option Reapplication option Wood chip based energy production systems without FGC Landfill option Reapplication option Refined biofuel based energy systems Landfill option Reapplication option 24 6 Discussion Comparing the numbers in tables 4 and 10, some conclusions can be drawn about the economies of the different scenarios. Looking first at the production cost, energy production from the natural gas option is less expensive for all the plant options considered. The main reason for this is probably the investment cost, because natural gas power plants are cheaper to build. This would maybe not be the case if the plant had to be build with a CO2 separation unit, but that is unlikely to happen and will not be considered here. The other main contributor to the production cost is the fuel price. The market and political decisions regarding taxes affect the price on biomass. Sweden has a satisfactory supply of biomass, and a study made by Sundberg and Henning shows that it is possible to double the withdrawal without affecting the production price (Sundberg and Henning, 2002). The price on natural gas is, amongst other things, dependent on the oil price, and is therefore not very stable (see appendix 2). This implies that natural gas systems are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel price (relative to investment cost) than biomass options. This increases the risk for the natural gas options, but the lower capital cost acts opposite and partly reduces the risk. The environmental cost does not vary all that much, especially if only the CHP plants are considered. The numbers for natural gas and biomass reapplication option are very equal, so on the basis of this analysis there is no foundation to claim that biomass is more environmentally friendly than natural gas. Table 11 shows the total amount emission per MWh from the bioenergy systems. Compared to the numbers given in chapter 3.2 the bioenergy systems have lower CO2 emissions, so a unique conclusion can not be given without a further investigation. 25 Table 11: Total emissions from the bioenergy systems (Forsberg, 2000). Emission Wood chips Refined biomass fuels CO2 (kg/MWh) 29 27 CO (g/MWh) 206 243 NOX (g/MWh) 781 1110 N2O (g/MWh) 16 17 SOX (g/MWh) 116 110 PM (g/MWh) 268 424 HC (g/MWh) Small amounts Small amounts For biofuels, systems based on woodchips with FGC technology outperform systems based on wood chips without FGC, which in turn outperform systems based on refined fuels. If biomass is considered a viable substitute for nuclear power in the future, care must be taken in this transition. There is still not enough knowledge on the environmental impacts of growing short rotation forests. This transition needs to be done gradually with careful monitoring. The problem with depletion of the soil is especially of concern since no economical viable solutions exist for cleaning the ash enough for it to be returned to the forests. Giving that transportation of bioenergy and natural gas depends strongly on distance, amounts and which means of transportation are used (Bioenergy - boats, trucks etc. Natural gas – pipe, LNG, CNG etc.), it is difficult to give an exact comparison of emissions and costs. Transportation of bioenergy with trucks or boats and natural gas as LNG and CNG give emissions due to combustion of diesel etc. Transporting natural gas through a pipeline gives no emissions except for at construction and maintenance. This form of transportation is however only economically viable if the distance from production to end-user is not too long. 26 A comparison of social costs between bioenergy and natural gas is very complicated seeing that it is dependent on whether the fuel is replacing an existing source of energy (e.g. nuclear power in Sweden or hydropower in Norway) or it is a “new” fuel. It also depends on which region is considered. For example is bioenergy an abundant resource in Sweden thus making it more favourable to use here than in Norway. While in Norway natural gas is the most obvious choice of the two due to large gas resources. However, even local considerations have to be made. In Sweden for example, the west coast has a gas grid and the forests are mainly present in the north. Compared to power production from coal and oil both these alternatives seem environmentally favourable, with low emissions. On the other hand nuclear power is virtually emission free, but other aspects make it seem unwanted (risk of accidents, negative reputation). During this project it has been observed that coal often is used as standard of reference when discussing bioenergy in for example Sweden. In this way bioenergy stands out as the evident choice for energy source. However, only very small amounts of the energy consumed in Norway and Sweden come from coal fired plants. This can raise questions if coal is considered only for bioenergy to gain popularity. If bioenergy is to be compared rightfully with other energy sources, it should be with sources that are regarded as alternatives. 27 7 Conclusions Compared to traditional fossil fuel power plants, especially coal fired, both alternatives discussed here will have a positive impact on carbon mitigation problems. Biomass fired CHP plants already exist in Sweden (e.g. in Eskilstuna), and a natural gas fired plant is under construction in Rya. So the technology is available, and it is most of all dependent on the energy policy of the Swedish government what will be the trend in the future. High electricity price and heavily taxed natural gas in combination with cheap biomass fuel may make a biomass fired plant more profitable in the future. Forest fuels constitute a reasonable replacement for the energy currently produced by nuclear power in Sweden, but it is not the full solution. Forest residues are especially attractive due to the national and international desire to reduce the CO2 emissions. But regardless, attention should be paid to the complete environmental impact for energy production by using forest residues. Since it is and will remain unknown, Sweden should proceed with caution. It is difficult to conclude with one alternative being better than the other. It all depends on location and existing power production. Bioenergy is not a completely “clean” energy source, there are many environmental aspects regarding this that needs to be recognised and considered. 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Energy Conversion and Management 43 639-650 (2002) Sund, K., Statnett (2004) : Scandinavian Gas Ring: En mulig integrering av skandinavisk gassinfrastruktur?, GO-samarbeidets seminar om gass og energi, 19 august 2004: ”Gass gir GO energi”(viewgraphs). Svampguiden. Home page, www.svampguiden.com/ordlista.asp?nr=103 Svenska Bioenergiföreningen, Faktablad Nr 3 1998, Energimyndighetens förlag, Eskilstuna (1998) Svenska Bioenergiföreningen, Fokus Bioenergi Nr 1 2003, 2003 http://www.svebio.se/Fokus%20Bioenergi/Fokus%20Bioenergi_sv1webb.pdf 30 Svenska Gasföreningen: Naturgas och skatter på miljö och energi, www.gasforeningen.se UNFCC http://unfcc/kyoto_mechanisms/items/1673.php VG, 2004 http://www.vg.no/pub/vgart.hbs?artid=255066 31 Appendix 1 Possible natural gas pipe line routes Two different proposals for natural gas pipe line routes are shown in figure A1.1 and A1.2. Figur A1.1: Phase three of the Scandinavian Gas Ring. Green lines indicate existing pipes, while red lines are planned/proposed gas pipes.(Statnett) 32 FigureA1.2: The Mid-Nordic gas pipe (Stamgass) 33 Appendix 2 Development in natural gas prices Figure A2.1 shows the development in natural gas price in the European Union, 19852001. The figure is excerpted from an article by Gustavson and Madlener (Gustavson and Madlener, 2003), and the numbers are based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Figure A2.1: Natural gas price development (Gustavson and Madlener, 2003). 34