Asia Economic Weekly 亚洲经济周报 Issue No. 15 (2013.04.12-2013.04.19) Highlights: OECD Deputy Secretary General Richard Boucher thought the biggest change of current Asian industries is investment in intellectual property instead of factories and infrastructure. He said 80 percent of the added value in the world economy continued to come from OECD countries, which add incremental value through the way of invest in intellectual assets including value education and develop tertiary industry. Research and Training Institute Boao Forum for Asia 博鳌亚洲论坛研究院 1 【Weekly Review】 The Economic Observer: Concern on the shift of Asia twofold industries in progress Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG), the world’s fourth largest iron ore producer supplied 60 million tons of iron ore to China in 2012 and it will reach to 100 million to 120 million tons in 2013; as the world’s leading commercial transportation and construction equipment maker, Swiss Volvo Group has came into China’s rural market while plans to invest in China, Thailand and India. 【Economic Developments】 ADB: Warns Asia of asset bubble risk The Asian Development Bank reported that Asian developing countries should be wary of asset bubbles, against a backdrop of ample money flowing into the region. China: First quarter GDP up by 7.7% to 11.8 trillion yuan China: Fiscal revenue of local government expand 13.7 percent benefited from real estate The local governments saw fiscal revenue increased on the back of robust transactions in the housing market. China: First quarter private investment increased to 3.6 trillion yuan In the first quarter, the private investment in fixed asset nationwide has increased to 3.6763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1 percent in nominal terms (after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 23.9 percent), down 0.5 percentage points than that of January to February. 2 Japan: 2012 money supply rose by 2.1 percent Japan: Continue quantitative easing policy indefinitely until a 2 percent inflation target is sustainable Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said on April 12 in a speech in Tokyo that the central bank will keep its quantitative easing policy in place until its 2 percent inflation target is achieved. Japan: Fund reached the highest level by the end of March since 2008 South Korea: Central bank keeps benchmark interest rate unchanged for six straight months South Korea’s central bank—Bank of Korea announced on April 11 to freeze the benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.75 percent. It has kept the same interest rate for six months since November 2012. South Korea: To draw up US$15.5 billion extra budget to revive economy South Korea proposed a 17.3 trillion won (US$15.5 billion) supplementary budget on April 16 to help generate jobs and boost the economy Singapore: To offer free metro rides during morning peak-hours India: Inflation gauge eased to below 6 percent for the first time over the last two years 3 India: March wholesale price index declined to a 3-year low India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose by 5.96 percent in March, the lowest rate in more than three years, indicating the inflation is easing, government latest data showed. Australia: Jobless rate in March hit a three-year high as 5.6 percent Eurozone: Posts trade surplus of 10.4 billion euros in February while import decrease by 7 percent As import decreased by 7 percent in February, the 17-nation Eurozone posted a trade surplus of 10.4 billion euros, data from the European Union Statistics office Eurostat. Europe: Five countries appeal to drop banking secrecy to fight tax evasion French Minister for Economic Affairs and Finance Pierre Moscovici said recently that, the finance ministers of France, Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy has jointly announced to EU for the automatic exchange of information on bank depositors to fight against tax evasion. U.S.: Obama signs order for $109 billion of reduction to discretionary spending U.S.: 12 million fewer over the past eleven years who get healthcare The share of Americans who get health benefits through work dropped to 60 percent and U.S. employers provided coverage for 159 million people in 2011, 12 million fewer than in 2000, according to a report released by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. 4 【Trade & Investment】 World Bank: Will lend India up to $5 billion a year to alleviate poverty China: Vanke enters Singapore realty market China Vanke Co. will invest 135.5 million Singapore dollars for a 30 percent stake in an upscale condominium project in Singapore, making its third project outside mainland China. Argentina: Diary leading brand first to Chinese market China’s huge milk powder market grab attentions of dairy companies in South America. Recently, SanCor infant formula milk powder, the leading diary brand of Argentina hit the market of Greater China. Russia: Will vote $51.8 billion to ensure the status of space power and position 【Regional Cooperation】 China, U.S.: California opens Trade and Investment Office in China ten years later to promote trade Japan, U.S.: Conclude preparatory negotiations over TPP talks Japan and the United States on April 11 agreed on a deal paving the way for Japan to join into the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks and the full details are expected to be released recently. 5 Japan: To form nuclear agreements with Turkey and UAE to enable exports of Japan's nuclear power technologies China, Russia: Bilateral trade expected to reach $200 billion in 2020 The current China-Russia relationship has sustained a sound developmental momentum and the bilateral trade will be kept growth trend in the future. Trade is believed to have a good chance of reaching the $100 billion and $200 billion goals set for 2015 and 2020 respectively, a Ministry of Commerce official said on April 16 during the Canton Fair. 【Authoritative Forecasts】 World Bank: East Asia should consider stimulus withdrawal Asia's emerging economies should consider reining in monetary stimulus to curb the risks of asset bubbles and inflation as policy easing in developed nations spur capital inflows, the World Bank said. IMF: Cut China’s 2013 growth forecast to 8 percent The International Monetary Fund released the latest World Economic Outlook and cut its forecast for China economic growth to 8 percent in 2013and 8.2 percent in 2014, down by 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent than its January estimate respectively. IMF: Road to recovery remain bumpy in the advanced economies and Eurozone is of concern The International Monetary Fund released the latest World Economic Outlook recently, pointing that the global prospects have improved again and expecting global growth of 3.3 percent in 2013 and 4 percent in 2014 respectively. 6 IMF: To cut U.S. growth forecast as recovery stuck There has been some disharmonious sounds support that it is not true even more and more people trust the recovery of the United State economy is going well. JP Morgan: Cut China’s economic growth to 7.8 percent in 2013 Goldman Sachs: Japanese stock market will surge another 20% within one year Goldman Sachs upgrade its 12-month target for Nikkei 225 index and Topix. It increased its target for Nikkei 225 index to 16,000 from 15,000 and for the Topix to 1,350 from 1,250 earlier, which marks a near 20 percent upside from current levels. Financial News: China’s forex reserves is amounted to the size of German economy China's foreign exchange reserves jumped $130 billion to $3.44 trillion in the first quarter, roughly the size of the German economy, top of the world. Moody’s: Japan’s bold monetary easing cannot resolve the structural problems 7