Module H5 Session 13 Session 13. National income and the balance of payments Learning objectives At the end of this session the students will be able to list the main components of the balance of payments define the elements of the SNA generation of income account derive “national disposable income” and other income statistics from the GDP Introduction The following aggregates are all slightly different national accounting aggregates. Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross national income (GNI) Gross national disposable income (GNDI) The differences all relate to flows in the balance of payments, which we shall look at first. Balance of payments Balance of payments statistics are important for managing the economy, especially in relation to the rest of the world. The domestic economy is often affected by what is happening in the external transactions. As the “rest of the world account” the balance of payments also forms an integral part of the SNA. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 1 Module H5 Session 13 The following are the main components of the balance of payments system Balance of Payments: Standard Components For every component there will be a credit and a debit entry. 1. Current Account A. Goods and services a. Goods (various possible classifications) b. Services 1. Transportation 2. Travel 3. Communications services 4. Construction services 5. Insurance services 6. Financial services 7. Computer and information services 8. Royalties and license fees 9. Other business services 10. Personal, cultural, and recreational services 11. Government services n.i.e. B. Income 1. Compensation of employees 2. Investment income C. Current transfers 1. General government 2. Other sectors 2. Capital and Financial Account A. Capital account 1. Capital transfers 2. Acquisition/disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets B. Financial account 1. Direct investment 2. Portfolio investment 3. Other investment 4. Reserve assets Source: Balance of Payments Manual (Fifth edition) International Monetary Fund, 1993 The category of “income” is more commonly know as “factor income”, as it refers to income derived from the factors of production (labour and capital), either earned abroad (credit) or paid to non-residents (debit). Investment income includes interest payable on loans received from abroad. It does not include the repayment of loans, which is a financial transaction classified under component 2B-3. Other investment. Overall, the balance of payments figures should balance, but usually there is a line in the statistics for “net errors and omissions”. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 2 Module H5 Session 13 Balance of Payments: Namibia This table shows the balance of payments for Namibia. Balance of payments (N$ million) Merchandise trade balance Exports fob Imports fob Services (net) Credit Debit Compensation of employees (net) Credit Debit Investment income (net) Credit Debit Current transfers in cash and kind (net) Credit Debit Current Account Balance 2,002 -2,183 11,278 13,461 390 2,849 -2,459 -14 45 -59 252 1,371 -1,118 2,895 3,206 -310 1,341 2,003 -3,481 9,463 -12,944 1,050 3,115 -2,065 -31 53 -83 531 1,570 -1,039 3,467 3,670 -203 1,537 2,004 -1,829 11,761 -13,590 352 3,058 -2,706 -27 56 -83 639 1,492 -853 4,304 4,529 -225 3,439 2,005 -1,688 13,149 -14,837 277 2,615 -2,338 -23 67 -90 -79 1,495 -1,574 4,262 4,548 -286 2,748 Net capital transfers Credit Debit Direct investment Abroad In Namibia Portfolio investment Assets Liabilities Other investment - long term Assets Liabilities Other investment - short term Assets Liabilities Capital & financial account excl reserves 429 431 -2 1,969 57 1,912 -4,441 -4,310 -132 612 -204 816 410 154 256 -1,021 510 512 -3 1,204 79 1,125 -4,792 -4,621 -171 418 -9 426 406 29 377 -2,254 498 501 -3 1,602 143 1,459 -5,430 -5,298 -133 -501 -91 -410 151 396 -245 -3,680 505 509 -3 2,293 80 2,213 -6,639 -6,685 46 238 -211 448 489 499 -9 -3,114 -221 98 -98 -144 -862 822 153 -88 88 380 14 -14 Net errors and omissions Overall balance Reserve assets Source: Bank of Namibia, Annual Report, 2006, Windhoek, Namibia Exercise 1 Check that all the sub-totals and totals are equal to the sum of there components (except for possible rounding error). One figure is this table has been deliberately misprinted. Can you spot it? SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 3 Module H5 Session 13 GDP by income category The SNA generation of income account shows how gross value added (or GDP) generates certain types of income. It could be presented like this: Code D1 D2 D3 K1 B2 B3 Uses Compensation of employees Taxes on production and imports (less subsidies) Consumption of fixed capital Operating surplus, net Mixed income, net Total GDP 762 191 222 247 432 1,854 Code B1 D21 D31 Resources Gross value added Taxes on products (less subsidies) Total GDP 1,721 133 1,854 The categories are defined as follows Compensation of employees is the total remuneration, in cash or in kind, payable by an enterprise to an employee in return for work done by the latter during the accounting period. Taxes on production and imports are “taxes on products” and “other taxes on production”. Taxes on products consist of taxes, including value added tax, payable on goods and services when they are produced, delivered, sold, transferred or otherwise disposed of by their producers plus taxes and duties on imports that become payable when goods enter the economic territory by crossing the frontier or when services are delivered to resident units by non-resident units. Other taxes on production consist mainly of current taxes on the labour or capital employed in the enterprise, such as payroll taxes or current taxes on vehicles or buildings. Consumption of fixed capital represents the reduction in the value of the fixed assets used in production during the accounting period resulting from physical deterioration, normal obsolescence or normal accidental damage. The operating surplus measures the surplus or deficit accruing from production before taking account of any interest, rent or similar charges payable on financial or tangible nonproduced assets borrowed or rented by the enterprise, or any interest, rent or similar receipts receivable on financial or tangible non-produced assets owned by the enterprise; (note: for unincorporated enterprises owned by households, this component is called "mixed income"). Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/glossary.asp?letter=O Few developing countries have accurate figures relating to these categories of income because of the difficulty in measuring them. In developed countries, compensation of employees is usually based mainly on information from pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) tax or social security contribution records. However, because such systems only cover employees SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 4 Module H5 Session 13 of formal sector businesses, in developing countries this source of information is not very adequate because the coverage is limited. Estimating the consumption of fixed capital is also a challenge, and depends on assumptions about the life length of the assets. Operating surplus and mixed income is usually estimated as a residual. National income aggregates The SNA concept of gross national income (GNI) used to be known as gross national product (GNP) especially in the United States of America. It can easily be derived from the GDP and the “income” component (1B) of the balance of payments. Income credits are added and debits subtracted. Gross national disposable income (GNDI) is a SNA concept closely related to GNI. It is derived from GNI and the “current transfers” component (1C) of the balance of payments. Credits of current transfers are added and debits subtracted. GNDI, in turn, may be split between consumption expenditure and (gross) national saving. By deducting estimates of the consumption of fixed capital, all of the above measures may be expresses as “net” instead of “gross”. “Real” income The SNA makes an important distinction between something measured “at constant prices” and the “real” value of a flow such as income. Income and similar flows in the system, not being the value of specific goods or services, cannot be measured “at constant prices” in the usual way. Such flows may nevertheless be measured “in real terms” by deflating their values by prices indices in order to measure their real purchasing power over a selected basket of goods and services. The selection of the basket may not be obvious, however, and differing baskets may even be appropriate for the units paying and receiving the same money. In particular, changes in the purchasing power of GDP will differ from changes in GDP at constant prices if there are changes in the “terms of trade”. If the terms of trade change in your favour, it means that export prices have increased more than import prices. This means that, for the same volume of production, you could buy more imports than before. SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 5 Module H5 Session 13 GDP by income category In Namibia, estimates are made of GDP by income category, with net operating surplus (including mixed income) as a residual Gross domestic product by income Current prices - N$ million Compensation of employees Consumption of fixed capital Net operating surplus (& mixed income) 2002 12,012 4,073 13,793 2003 13,051 5,303 12,525 2004 13,903 5,932 12,878 2005 14,477 6,651 13,645 Gross domestic product at factor cost 29,878 30,879 32,713 34,773 Taxes on production and imports Subsidies Gross domestic product at market prices 3,582 -552 32,908 3,104 -140 33,842 3,681 -213 36,181 4,056 -269 38,560 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (quoted in Bank of Namibia, Annual Report, 2006) Exercise 2 Using the balance of payments data complete the following table: (Primary income is the sum of the BOP categories “compensation of employees” and “investment income”.) Current prices - N$ million Gross domestic product at market prices Primary incomes (net) Gross national income Current transfers in cash and kind (net) Gross national disposable income 2002 2003 2004 2005 32,908 33,842 36,181 38,560 239 501 612 -102 33,147 34,343 36,793 38,458 2,896 3,467 4,304 4,262 36,043 37,810 41,097 42,720 Has GDNI risen faster than, slower than or about the same as GDP over this period? SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 6 Module H5 Session 13 Quality note Interestingly, these results do not agree with those published in the same publication: Discussion point It seems the figures for primary incomes do not agree with those in the balance of payments table. Check this out. What are the likely reasons for this difference? What lesson can be learnt from this? SADC Course in Statistics Module H5 Session 13 – Page 7